Wednesday, April 22, 2020

My Final Draft Mockery, Pundit Corrections, and the Cleveland Browns

Per Pete SmithSione Takitaki told Nathan Zegura that he's been told he'll play WIL for the Browns in 2020, which is surprising.

Sione played WIL and MIKE in college, and was pretty wild (up and down). I've read most of his pre-draft scouting reports, and the consensus among the credible analysts was that he would be a great special-teamer, might start eventually, but was nothing special.

Post-draft, I heard from a couple other smart people that Takitaki could be more than that:

1: His technique sucked.  He was raw and instinctive.  He took on blockers face-first (sometimes won, by the way), took poor angles, left his gap, was sloppy in his backpedal.

2: Due to suspensions, he missed time, then played two different positions, and lacked experience at both.

3: His physical measurables are actually pretty good (not great, but above average).

4: His aggressiveness and non-stop motor are undervalued.  Takitaki loves to play football, and he's a legitimate badass.

I also need to mention here that John Dorsey was a Linebacker when he played, so he might have an edge at evaluating players at that position.

All (not most) of what was wrong with Sione Takitaki could be coached out of him.  If he is committed, cooperative, and works hard, he can be a special player.

That's just my opinion, so don't bet the house on it.

Anyway Pete says Takitaki rushed the passer a lot in his stint on the weak side, and that's one thing he's good at already.

He has potential in man vs Tight Ends (Pete points out that he was not used much in coverage in college), and he certainly has the tools to drop into zone.

Again, nickel is the real base here, regardless of what the depth chart looks like, Takitaki is unlikely to be on the field even half the time anyway.

Mary Kay Cabbott lobbies for a Trent Williams trade, and I have to respect the case she made, but:

1: She's talking about 2 third round picks (instead of one second rounder) as if third round picks are worthless.  She is wrong.

2: She expects Williams' re-negotiated salary to be in the 15 mil/year range.  I have heard 20 mil/year.

And MKC doesn't bother mentioning the length of the deal, and I have heard he'll demand four years (or until he's 36 years old).

3: Sigh the 2020 Stefanski Browns don't NEED another Joe Thomas DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

4: The depth at offensive tackle facilitates a trade-down as-is.  No big-money geezers required.

The majority of these writers who think that 2 3rd rounders and another (in the real world 18+ mil/year) for Trent Williams would be a good idea for the 2020 Browns just don't get it.

1: Quit saying that none of these guys is in the same class as Williams, unless you add the word "YET".  Hell, Williams will be 32 years old, and one or more of these new guys could pass him up THIS SEASON, let alone in 2021!  Get up off that emotional hero-worship crap, ok?

2: The expensive new contract for Williams could prevent an affordable early Mayfield extention, render Myles Garrett unaffordable, kick Njoku to the curb etc in 2021/2022, wheras a Josh Jones (after a trade-down or 3) wouldn't matter (until 2024 or 2025).

3: Josh Jones (or Ezra Cleveland for that matter) probably won't retire before 2024/25, and might stick around for 5 or so more years duh!

4: WE DON'T NEED ANOTHER JOE THOMAS!!!

5: Check out any Pro Bowl roster and count the guys who were drafted in the third round, ok?

6: Perennial contenders are built and maintained through the DRAFT.  You don't trade draft picks for old expensive players!

Again: Yes Trent Williams might still be the best Left Tackle in the NFL, and yes he would probably help the Browns more than any rookie in 2020...probably, since some of these new guys are better zone blockers than he is, and when you hardly ever take 7-step drops and hold the ball for over 4 seconds well IS ANY OF THIS SINKING IN YET?

And as Pete Smith says, most of these trade-rumors are (predictably) coming out of Washington--from the team and his agent and (of course) guys like ME.

It's kind of like mass-hysteria.

A top contender with a conventional Quarterback and a vertical passing scheme would trade picks for Trent Williams (if they could afford his salary demands).  

Not the 2020 Browns.

Shawn Stevenson's latest mock draft is interesting after (yawn) he drafts Andrew Thomas at 10.

In the 2nd round (41st overall) Shawn takes LB Zack Baun.

Baun is a total-package 3-down linebacker (an automatic immediate starter/impact player), but had 12.5 sacks (19 TFL's) in 2019.

Gil Brandt and Pat Kirwan raved about this guy.  He could play any linebacker position in any defense, and is still low in his growth-curve.

He was a dual-threat QB in highschool, but turned into a linebacker in college.

He was a reserve as a freshman, then got hurt in year 2, but kicked ass in 2018 and 2019.

Zierlein says the 6'2", 238 lb Baun has trouble with long-armed OT's, and my interpretation of the consensus profiles is that he's a run-and-hit guy that should be "protected" from the big uglies (at least for now).

He might weigh 245 in 2021, and with coaching could improve at getting off blocks (it's hand-fighting, see? This is why teams bring in martial artists).

In the third round, Shawn drafts FS Ashtyn Davis.  Ashtyn is a track-star and an awesome special teams player.

He needs some development as a FS (mainly angles and tackling), but is considered a good cornerback candidate too (so we got the "slot corner" part covered, anyway).

In the third round, this is a no-brainer.

Next in the third round, it's LB Troy Dye.

I like Troy, and talked about him before, but Shawn doesn't seem to get that the Browns don't need a lot of linebackers.

Ignorance abounds here:

Many ass ume that 5 DBs mean a 4-2, 67% of the time.  

Ok so if you have Wilson, Takitaki, Baun and Goodson, why are you reaching for a 5th Linebacker here instead of...anybody else?

Downhill from there.  A 3-tech DT, possession receiver, and TE.

Still, Baun and Davis make sense! Baun is a poor man's version of Isaiah Simmons (except lighter on the coverage, heavier on the passrush).  Davis could be worked in gradually behind Sendejo (and maybe Redwine) while significantly upgrading Special Teams.  Davis isn't that raw, either, and should make a meaningful impact on defense as a rookie (Woods might put him on slot recievers immediately).

Nevermind.  Anyway if we think with our brains here, we do the Wile E Coyote draft:

We trade down twice from 10 (and trade Hunt) and pile up 3 more 2020 2nd round picks (and stuff) and "settle for" that bumb Josh Jones as our new Left Tackle (sigh/sob)...

...and now (before the third round, which Mary Kay tells you doesn't matter) you have a decent shot at all of these guys:

Queen, Cleveland, Murray, Baun, Winfield, Higgins, Epenessa, Wilson, Gross-Matose, Chinn, Davis, Duggar, Uche, Taylor, Bartch, Delpit...

Naturally, some of these guys will go before the Browns can nab them, but others will still be there in the (attn: Mary Kay) THIRD ROUND.

Realisticly, I think EDGE Epenessa won't get there, but most of the rest have a great chance of sliding.

In my dreams, the Browns get Baun (or Murray or Wilson), Chinn (or Duggar), Taylor (or Gross-Matos), and Higgins (a WR).

(Then Ashtyn Davis in the 3rd THIRD round).

A few notes here:

Jones and T Higgins are the only offensive players on this list, but that's how the Browns' needs and this draft class shake out.

Higgins is a bargain in 2020, due to the unprecedented WR in this draft class.  This 6'4", 216 lb deep threat would be gobbled up in the first round (probably top 15) in 2019 or 2018.

I got 2 NFL comparisons for you: Micheal Thomas and Josh Gordon, although he's taller than both (6'4").

This guy has played every WR slot for CLEMSON, but projects as a true deep-threat X in the NFL immediately (if not sooner).

Even if nobody is dumb enough to trade serious assets for OBJ, you still have to grab this skyscraper, and figure the rest of it out later.

Defensively, we get a scary linebacker, safetybacker, EDGE, and Free Safety (remember I took Davis in the 3rd round).

...and we still got a third round pick and the rest of the draft left!

After the draft, maybe Jadeveon Clowney is ready to take a little less, or for sure Everson Griffen is much cheaper short-term, and the Browns have a dominating 2020 defense (on paper).

You release Pegleg Vernon, and either break even with Clowney or save a bunch with Griffen, and now you have quality and depth everywhere on your roster.

Yeah yeah some draft picks crap out and guys get hurt blah blah doyee but trust me:

You wouldn't want Mary Kay Cabbott in the front office.

No draft picks for greedy geezers.  Trade down, and exploit this depth at Left Tackle and Wide Receiver!

OBVIOUSLY.

Good luck Andrew okbye

THIS JUST IN: Great article by Elliott Kennel...except he thinks that forcing the ball to OBJ was Mayfield's idea, and ass umes that OBJ is untouchable.

Elliott is one of the rare few people who comprehend that a third WR is almost meaningless in a Stefanski offense, but that doesn't mean you don't grab a Higgins in round 2 (or trade OBJ).

Elliott also overstated Rashard Higgins' inability to separate from defenders, and misinterprets why the Mayfield-Higgins connection worked as well as it did before Dorsey Kitchens killed it.

Stay tuned.





















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