Saturday, April 11, 2020

Draft Sleepers, Joe Woods Defense, Strategery and Cleveland Browns Stuff

Still uninfected.  It's amazing!

Jonah Tuls Nfl Draft Network offers up several sleepers who declared early or were in the Senior Bowl.

(The guys on Tom Brady Radio say that there is no such thing as a "sleeper", because all of these guys have been thoroughly checked out by at least a few pro scouts.

I still use the term, because some GMs are blockheads, many will skip over talent for pro-readiness...take a guy whose arm is an eighth of an inch longer, etc.)

These are guys who should be around on day 2 or later.

Wr/Rb Antonio Gibson wasn't given a chance until his final year, so he lacks experience, but he posted ungodly numbers in college at both positions, making a ton of huge plays, and scoring from everywhere on the field.

After Kareem Hunt turns into a draft pick, this guy (6', 228 lbs) is the ideal backup for Nick Chubb, as well as being another 3rd down back, and doing everything Hunt did.

He's a slasher, perfect for zone-blocking.

As a receiver, he gets dinged for rounding off his routes, and not being "sudden" enough in his breaks.

I wish I had a 3-cone on him.  This could be just the way he's built, or it could be his inexperience running those kinds of routes...but he for sure can go vertical!!!

He's a can't miss running back and special teamer.

Somebody will probably be smart enough to nab him in the 2nd round and start him at RB immediately.

Jonah disagrees with Zierlein on Guard Logan Stenberg, who Jonah calls the best guard in this draft class.

Zierlein says he's a backup.  I've rarely seen two analysts this far apart on a player.  We can all agree that Logan should be there on day 3, and that the Browns could use competition at Right Guard.

Linebacker Logan Wilson sounds like Joe Schobert, except he got a bunch of interceptions and deflections in coverage.

His combine was so-so (7.07 3-cone not bad), but that's why he's like Schobert:  He has great instincts and football intelligence.

Put this guy near the top of that list of 3-down linebackers who can cover.

Noah Igbinoghene (if you'll excuse my language) is a good cornerback, and you can never have too many of those.

Left Tackle Saahdiq Charles could slide due to an idiotic off-the-field incident which got him suspended for the first half of his final season at LSU, and because he has technical work to do, but if he gets to day 3, the Browns have to consider him.

No, you still take the Tackle high--but it would be great to have a talented project getting watered in the nursery (depth is good).

Zierlein is hard on these guys (which he's supposed to be), but Charles started for LSU and dominated all the way, ok?  

Z mentions that Charles could also become a guard (interesting...)

DB Amik Robertson is only 5'9" (like Joe Haden), and projects to be a slot corner (and back up outside) in the NFL.

All this guy does is get interceptions!  He's a prototype slot corner with truly exceptional change-of-direction and recovery speed.

Slot corners can't use the sidelines to help them; that slot receiver can go inside or outside.  He can crowd them, but that's risking letting the receiver get behind him, so most use off-man.

The corner mostly tries to force an early break, and then stay "on top" of the receiver to come up for a breakup or tackle.

This is where your Edelman or Amendola often burn them.  They step right or left to make the slot defender mirror in that direction, and then dart behind him vertically (a double-move).

That's where the explosiveness and recovery speed come in: a guy like Amik can stay close to the receiver, and then catch up.

Uh...naturally you don't put this guy on skyscrapers or Tight Ends, ok?

Now this is just plain funny!  This writer just takes guys named "Cleveland" or "Brown".  He FUNNY!

Pete Smith comments on Connor Orr's ranking of the Browns as the 19th-best QB situation in the NFL.

I agree with Pete that we shouldn't be burning Connor in effigy, because Mayfield's situation isn't perfect.

With this Covid 19 hysteria, the fact that Stefanski is bringing in a new offensive system will make learning it even more difficult.

2, or more likely 3, new starters on the Offensive Line have never played together.

Still, 19th?

1: Kirk Cousins had a carreer season under Kevin Stefanski.  He got to hand off or dump off to a great running back.  The defense can't read a pass from a run with the wide zone scheme, so they hesitate to commit to a passrush.

2: Mayfield will have Hooper, Njoku, and Landry as targets, even after Hunt and OBJ are traded.

3: Mayfield will be allowed to play his game, and just throw to whoever is open.

Well, no bigee.  Connor couldn't have missed by more than 10 spots.

We've all kind of overlooked Andrew Billings' probable impact on the defense here so far.

The Bengals ran a hybrid 3-4 defense last season in which Billings played the human fire hydrant nose tackle.

I suspect that Joe Woods will mix in some 3-man fronts in 2020, and you might call that a "4-3 hybrid".

Billings is a fine human fire hydrant, but is more athletic than most nose tackles, and can do more.

I'm not sure of Joe Woods' 4-man front, but the most common one has a 3-tech (on a guard's outside shoulder) and a zero shade (on the center's shoulder).

Here, Billings is exclusively a zero shade (Ogunjobi has done that here mostly).

This guy attacks the center, but, unlike a nose tackle, seeks to penetrate, as well as to tie up (drive back) the center.

On obvious passing downs, Billings won't be on the field, but on running and some neutral downs, he can spell Ogunjobi.

He certainly can make a mess inside vs the run, but can also collapse the pocket vs the pass as a zero-shade.  

Billings is super-strong, and maxes out his leverage, but he's also quick.  He won't run anybody down from behind, and he can't change directions like Larry or Sheldon, but he can get into a center before he has his feet set, and shrug off the guard who is trying to make a Billings sandwich.

He will be more here than he was in Cincinnati.

There's more:

Again, Joe Woods said he'd run a 4-3 here, but as we know by now, the nickel is the real base defense in today's NFL.

If you have a front six, that can be a 4-2, 3-3, or more exotic sets.

Everybody now wants linebackers who can cover tight ends or running backs, including (or especially) oversized strong safeties.  Big thumper MIKEs are obsolete.

A 4-man passrush remains a standard, along with blitzes (though today these are often slot corners or safeties).

Smart defensive coordinators adapt their fronts to their personnel, and to the given opponent.

Joe Woods probably asked for Andrew Billings.  Larry Ogunjobi has been terrible vs the run, and both DTs have been playing too many snaps (*Ogunjobi might be worn down*).

I thought Ekuale could do something, but so far, the Browns' coaches have not agreed.

The current team is thin at linebacker too, but let's review my previous posts:

1: The nickel is the real base, and 2 linebackers are more common than 3.  If a team carries 6 active linebackers, 2 of them are oversized safeties DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

2: Isolating the last 3 games of 2019, Mack Wilson and Seone Takitaki were playing quite well.  Wilson is good in coverage, and Takitaki does what Goodson does and was surprisingly good in coverage too.

3: Hassel, Joseph, and Redwine will be "doing linebacker stuff" DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

But I digress: Anyway, Joe Woods wants to 

1: Get Myles Garrett, along with the rest of the DL starters, off the field at least 30% of the time so they don't wear down again, as usual.

2: Generate a consistent non-Garrett passrush by any means neccessary.

3: Stop the run.

4: Stifle (or at least slow down) pass-catching tight ends.

That's simplified, but is enough.

As it stands, Joe has a solid DT rotation, a top flight nose tackle, 2 top flight 3-4 DEs, one elite 4-3 DE (potential 3-4 OLB), a promising MLB (or ILB), SAM (or 3-4 OLB), and...umm...

(I left Olivier Vernon out, even though he fits both schemes *3-4 better* because he can't be as good as he was anymore and will almost certainly get injured again and probably won't accept a pay-cut).

Naturally, the draft and free agency will change this further, but this is the core Woods inherited.  It's as much 3-4 as 4-3, (except you really don't want to waste Myles Garrett in coverage, so Woods will stick with a 4-man base).

BUT (if Woods reads this Blog--since you know--everything I send to those guys gets returned as "undeliverable" for some reason) any smart DC wants to be able to mix up his fronts to max out mismatches, keep his people fresh, and mess with offensive coordinators' heads amap.

This draft class is as light on 4-3 edge-rushing base DE's as it is deep in OTs and WRs, so Joe is probably pestering Andrew Berry about Jadeveon Clowney.

(and the reason why it's taking so long is because Clowney knows he's got that leverage)

Clowney fits both schemes and can cover tight ends too.  (Everson Griffin on a cheaper one-year deal is a good second choice.  He's on the downside, but still "had it" in 2019).

Woods has to be happy about CB Kevin Johnson too.  He was drafted in the middle of the first round and proceeded to get injured frequently (and often).

Nor has he lived up to is pre-draft scouting reports when he was healthy (although he didn't suck, either).

That was a great dirt-cheap one year signing by Andrew Berry.  This is a "prove it" deal, and he might do it.  (If not, he's another compensatory pick tee hee) but I digress:

This draft class is light on Free safeties, but has a lot of Safetybackers and cornerbacks, plus a few edge-rushers who are undersized...

Some of these (like Uche) are 3-4 OLB prospects.  Woods will lobby for these in the middle and lower rounds (with Special Teams Coach Mike Preiffer backing him up).

It goes without saying that Andrew will get Joe at least one Safetybacker, and maybe a Malick Harrison too.

REDUNDANCY ALERT this will be easier after OBJ and Kareem Hunt have been cashed in for draft picks.

While the majority of GMs are still foodball guyz like John Dorsey, the abundance of Wide Receivers in this draft class and OBJ's cap hit will undercut his value, even with these blockheads.

So Andrew Berry should consider tossing in 5 million bucks and maybe a 5th round pick to sweeten the OBJ pot.

The sucker trade partner would get OBJ for only merely 10 mil (for 2020) and get a high 5th round pick such a DEAL!

AND, Andrew should be willing to settle for only a 2021 1st round pick (and a 2020 2nd round pick meh).

I can hear it now: "What the hell is Berry thinking?"

And I'll go ultra-conservative on Hunt and just assume that the Browns don't match his offer and take the second round pick instead.

I have to expect that the OBJ trader is in contention and expect that second rounder to be...the COWBOYS 19th/52nd overall.

Jerry Jones has 17 mil in cap space and just lost Amari Cooper to free agency.  A healthy OBJ is both more reliable and more dangerous than Cooper, Jerry's in a tight race with the Eagles, and wants it NOWNOWNOW so yeah!  Yes he would make this trade!

He can still draft 17th overall in 2020 and might get lucky in the 5th round.  If he wins a Superbowl in 2020, it's worth it.

Hunt?

I'll wildly guess the Bills at 22.  No offense to Singletary and company, but Hunt would help Josh Allen out in so many ways, and they are in contention now.

...of course, if I'm DePoBerry, I match any offer under 10 mil/year so that I can use him as a receiver and trade him for a 1st round pick later---but that's too much to expect from mere...nevermind.

Let's say we've added 17 and 22 in the second round before the draft.

We now need a deep threat WR (more than we did before *sign Gordon wtf not?*), but nothing else has changed (ok we got Clowney or Griffin right?)

Ok well I can't pretend to know as much about Offensive Tackles as Berry or Callahan, so if they just draft one at 10 I'll remind you that that's what I said they should do all along (see I've learned a lot from Joe Biden), but for now I say trade down (if possible) unless Isaiah Simmons slides enough that...

Well it's complicated.  The Browns have to...

Ok I'm sorry I'm writing a fiction novel here and you guys are in a coma by now.

Normally I delete this crap, but this time there's a chance that I'll be right, and I'll need witnesses.

I know that most of you consider the Wentz trade-down as a disaster, and blame analytics for it.

Certainly Corey Coleman was a bust, and so were a bunch of other players during that era, but that's not the whole story:

1: Hue Jackson had the final say on Quarterbacks.  It was written into his contract.  He signed off on Wentz, and picked "you'll have to trust me on this one" Cody Kessler and DeShone Kizer.

2: Kevin Zeitler, JC Tretter, Larry Ogunjobi, Schobert, Higgins, Ogbah, Nassib, Garrett, and Njoku count, and so do all the extra draft picks Dorsey inherited, including Denzel Ward and the ones he squandered (along with Zeitler).

3: Andrew Berry wasn't in charge.  I'll give you 9:1 that Berry/DePodesta opposed the Mitchell Schwartze decision.  It had to be Sashi Brown!

The "alignment" thing seems to be real and meaningful here.  These guys are on the same page.  No bad reality show junior highschool power-struggle bullshit.

We've already seen it.  Berry went out and got Stefanski Austin Hooper and two fullbacks (Conklin doesn't count.  He was obvious).

Oh yeah and Case Keenum.

John Dorsey wasn't like that.  He had to be in charge.  "Yeah I hear you John DePodesta, but you have to trust us professionals.  Trading Zeitler, 17th overall, Peppers and our third round pick for OBJ and Olivier Vernon is the smart move here.  Now, I'm busy here, so..."

And Freddie Kitchens?  HE never had a chance!  Dorsey owned him!  Why tf else would Freddie have benched Higgins and Njoku, and (see previous posts if you need to, but it's obvious.)

I'm optimistic.  I don't believe in curses or "bad air" or whatever.  I trust smart people and talent.

No more Jerry Springer bullshit.  These guys are adults.  Haslam got it right this time.

Of course, they still have to draft better...

I just sneezed.  There is only a 99.999% chance I won't die from carnovirus soon.  This deadly inflection is worse than the black plague.  And MSNBC says sometimes those who recovered get reinflected and try to eat people's brains and stuff but I digress okbye




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