Friday, April 10, 2020

Left Tackle Sleeper, Trading Down, Clowney vs Vernon, and the Browns

Listening to the guys from PFF on Tom Brady Radio yesterday, they were discussing the Offensive Tackle prospects again.

1: They don't understand the hype about Austin Jackson.  They pointed to "each and every time" Corbett Jackson faced an EDGE guy with NFL potential: He was beaten like a drum.

2: They warn again about Mekhi Becton: He was part of a running offense which was a little wierd, and he only got 78 "true pass sets" (like those in the NFL), compared to 3-5 times as many by the rest of the field--and Mekhi fared badly.

These guys don't hate Mekhi, but agree that Josh Jones is a much better pro prospect.

3: They see Ben Bartch as THE Left Tackle sleeper in this draft class.

I can see why the foodball guyz and PFF guys aren't on the same page:

Bartch went to Saint Johns as a Tight End and played there for his first 2 seasons.  (As a receiver, he was a great blocker.)

He switched to Left Tackle as a junior and immediately started there, until he graduated.  During this time, he gained over 60 lbs of "good weight".

Bartch was also a Highschool track athlete; 100 meter hurdles and longer relays.

I checked some pre-Senior Bowl profiles on Bartch.  At that time, some scouts felt he might need to move inside in the NFL, as he had several mechanical and technical flaws in pass protection (notably foot placement).

But look: He played Division III, and only started at Left Tackle for 2 seasons.  He has the stature and tools (including quick feet) to play Left Tackle...who are these guys who said he should play guard?  I doubt that they were even real scouts but I digress:

Bartch practiced and played well at the Senior Bowl.  He learns very quickly, and has a high football IQ.

Josh Jones was the big star at the Senior Bowl, so Bartch didn't get much attention from us amateurs.

Ben is not considered ready to start in the NFL, and Zierlein is cautious about predicting his future BUT Callahan, Berry, and company will have their own opinions on that.

I must point a few things out here:

1: The 2020 Stefanski Browns don't need another Joe Thomas.  What I mentioned about Becton not having enough true pass sets?  Well, the Offensive Tackles in this run-oriented play-action offense won't have very many of those either.

Certainly, any Left Tackle will need to protect in obvious pass and come-from-behind situations, but Bill Callahan is coaching these guys, and Bartch's flaws are all in this area, and are all correctable.

2: Converted Tight Ends make some of the best Left Tackles!  They're used to blocking quick linebackers, blocking in space, and blocking guys who are bigger and sometimes shorter than they are.  They have quick feet and superior balance--they're genuine athletes!

The smartest pro scouts actually check out big tall college Tight Ends as potential conversion prospects, let alone give every tackle that ever played Tight End at least a second look.

3: Bartch is the least experienced of these prospects at his position, ergo has more relative upside as he continues to master his craft.

While he may never quite catch up to some of the mutants in this Offensive Tackle class, Ben could still be "pretty good"--as in good enough.

This is part of what's called "analytics":

If a Joe Thomas won't help your team much more than a Ben Bartch, you can address other positions, and probably "settle for" Bartch in the second round.

If neccessary:  I'm pretty sure that Josh Jones, Cleveland, and probably Becton are higher on that list.  But Bartch could be the last resort.

Nick Snook has a good bead on the Clowney situation, but overestimates Olivier Vernon (in the event that Clowney doesn't replace him).

A few more corrections are in order here:

While Clowney and Vernon have both missed time to injuries, Vernon has missed significantly more time.  Vernon is 5 years older, and his lower leg issues are chronic.

These issues are aggravated by the fact that he is now a base DE and takes on guys who outweigh him by 50 lbs each and every snap.

Clowney is bigger, and has greater length to keep the big uglies off him.

This isn't a (shrug) either/or situation.  Clowney is a much better and more reliable player.

Look: John Dorsey SCREWED UP ok!?!  He traded Zeitler for a player who had missed nearly half his games to injuries over his 2 most recent seasons and was 30 years old and overpaid!

Nobody seems to want to question the great John Dorsey, even when the evidence hits them in the face!  Vernon was a MISTAKE, and Andrew Berry needs to fix it now!

NICK!  If the Browns pay Vernon another 15 mil for another season, I'm telling you that the under/over for the games he'll play in will be around EIGHT, and I'll take the under!

And yeah---OBJ too.  The fact that he started 16 games for once last season only means his under/over will be around 11.5.

And now you sound exactly like I did SIX MONTHS AGO ranting about the Hunt/Chubb offense good grief!

They signed one fullback and traded for another! They signed Austin Hooper!  Kareem Hunt is a likely cap casualty in 2020 is anybody home!?!

Ohmmm....ohmmm...

This is what I would have done.  Remember, I told you that Hunt had already proven that he could line up at WR and could lead-block?  I said the Browns should extend him now, before he stays out of trouble and kicks ass again?

I'm not calling anybody who thinks that (however l o n g it takes them to catch up to me) stupid, but -snap-snap- they paid up for Austin Hooper, signed a fullback, and traded for another fullback, and zinggg!  Right over your heads!

After seeing this, as I told you, I realized that Andrew Berry was helping Kevin Stefanski duplicate the offense he ran in Minnesota, with 2 Tight Ends and a true Fullback.

Rather than call Berry/Stefanski dumbasses for not doing what I would have done, I tried to figure out why.

1: Because even the best Fullbacks cost a fraction of what Pro Bowl swiss army knife bellcow running backs cost.

2: Because Tight Ends cost less than Wide Receivers.

3: Because Kareem Hunt could be traded for good players or draft picks...

4: Because this is a less expensive, more sustainable offensive system.

So I told you that the Browns are unlikely to match any tender offer for Kareem Hunt (and take the 2nd round pick) or else trade him for a 1st round pick (and maybe more).

And of course now you're also thinking about maybe trading Jarvis Landry.

It's like the Keystone Cops around here!  Landry is durable as hell and catches everything in his zip code!  He's an adult and a team leader.  He's custom-made for an RPO scheme, and you want to trade him, and keep OBJ?

Oh yeah and trade David Njoku (for a bag of Doritos or something) because...

"Plagued by injuries and drops"?

He broke his wrist.  Prior to that, he played every game in 2017 and 2018.

He has dropped more passes than he should have, but was much worse as a rookie than he has been since.  

Simpletonians see a 50% catch rate on targets in a microscopic 2019 sample size and attribute the incompletions to drops.

No, some of those were bad passes, deflections, and great plays by defenders.

Njoku may never be as reliable as Austin Hooper, but was never as bad as the mob says he is, and is much more dangerous.

(Not that I wouldn't take a first round pick for him).

Ah! Here we go:

Austin Hooper is knocked for not doing well vs man coverage.  He's done most of his damage vs zone.

He's much less effective from the outside than he is from the slot or in-line (which overlaps with the man/zone issue.  In reality, man coverage is only safe near the sidelines, and most defenses don't try it elsewhere).

Njoku can beat man coverage.  His 3-cone was under 7 seconds and he high jumped 7' in highschool.  He clocked 4.64 and he was raw when he was drafted.

Njoku and Hooper complement eachother perfectly.  While (bullcrap aside) Njoku has become a competant (work-in-progress) in-line blocker and can also exploit zone coverage, Hooper is a "security blanket" who will probably be Mayfield's 2nd, 3rd, or emergency option on every single snap.

Njoku can get deeper and to the corners.

Defenses only have so many guys to put on Tight Ends, and here they have to cover 2 of them.  

They're still generally staffed to counter 3-wide sets.  They are all looking for safetybackers and extra strong safeties to counter the 2-TE trend, but can't afford to skimp on real cornerbacks and free safeties yet...

And anyway, no defense can ever truly stop 2 6'5" 250 lb receivers consistently.

Berry is building up a terrific smashmouth, short-passing ball-control roster for Kevin Stefanski.

Still need that Left Tackle, and maybe an upgrade at Right Guard, but all the other pieces are already here.

They could stick with OBJ, but shouldn't:

The RPO makes quick releases imperative (because your offensive linemen become illegal men downfield), so quick throws are critical.

You can go deep off this only if you lob it, so that it floats for awhile and lets your receiver catch up to it.

If that receiver is 5'11", 200 lbs, you can't do that.  You can only do that if that receiver is taller and bigger.

It's a high-risk timing throw to a spot.  The receiver can't run around or get jostled off-line.  He has to be able to absorb a big hit, and/or win a fight for the ball.  He has to be able to make his adjustments with the ball in the air when the defenders see it too (and are getting in his way).

This is Josh Gordon, or Julio Jones.  It is NOT OBJ. This guy has to be a bully, ok?

If a defense knows you can't throw that deep ball "up for grabs", it will "condense" closer to the line of scrimmage, and hammer your receivers and ballcarriers, playing downhill.

There's more to this, but the Cliff Notes version is that every offense needs a legitimate vertical deep threat to keep deep safeties deep and the rest of the defense scared.

Stefanski's 2019 offense wouldn't have been nearly as good without Stefon Diggs.

Sorry to belabor this so much, but nobody seems to comprehend this--or why OBJ is expendable.

To repeat myself yet again, Damion Ratley might be that vertical deep threat.  He's bigger and stronger now, and well...6'2", 4.36 ok?

Ok I just have to redundanalationalize again SIGN JOSH GORDON.

And draft a big tall fast WR, and see who comes out on top (after you trade OBJ of course).

I like Ohio State LB Malik Harrison (in the 3rd round or lower) more and more.

You can't fake a 3-cone drill, and at 6'3" this guy got a 6.83.  That's exceptional.

Zierlein said his insincts are only average, and he has "limitations in coverage", but he had 4.5 sacks and 16.5 TFLs at the highest level in 2019.

Malik is getting pushed down by the coverage linebackers in this 2020 draft class, but at 6'3", 247 lbs with a 4.66 40 and a 6.83 3-cone, he will play immediately, and could develop into something special in a year or 2 (and I include coverage in that).

"What if Tua fell to 10th in the draft?"

WOW great question!!!

Tua is awesome (per real experts who I listen to) but there are some real concerns about his durability; his ability to stay healthy in the NFL.

This is THE reason why he might well still be available at 10th overall.

Charlie Weiss and a couple others think that Tua is even better than Burrow (when healthy)...DePoBerry has to consider actually drafting him, and damn the Mayfields torpedos.

Nah!  Trade the pick!  What a haul they could get from some desperate GM!  (And I think we haven't seen the best of Baker yet).

Anyway there is a 1% chance I am inflected with the carnival virus in which case I only have a 97.6% chance of survival (no wait I'm not in a nursing home and don't have respiratory issues or a compromised immune system so make that around 99.2%) so this might be my last post.

...okbye.
















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