I someone were to sneak up on Paul DePodesta and inject him with sodium pentathol (truth serum) before a press conference, you would hear this:
Reporter: Any truth to the rumor that you're considering 2nd and 4th round draft picks for OBJ from the Vikings?
PD: Absolutely false! We're trying to build a young core here--why would we tear that down for a lowball offer like that?
We have plans for OBJ, even if we can't get sufficient value for him in a trade. We'll need at least a 2021 pick for starters. Otherwise, we'll just play out the season with him.
Reporter: But you and Andrew Berry said--
Well if we tell everybody we want to trade him we'll get more garbage offers like the one you mentioned! If they think we want to keep him, they'll offer more. I'm stunned by your naaivity.
...Mary Kay.
Pat Kirwan brought up a truly scary prospect:
The salary cap is determined by gross revenues. If this coronavirus hysteria causes a shortened season and/or empty stadiums, the 2021 cap could go DOWN by up to 25%!!!
Oh, the humanity!
The teams with the youngest rosters would hold up better--including the Browns, as Myles Garrett could be retained on his 5th year option, and 4 of the recent signings were one-year deals (which could yield compensatory picks.) Olivier Vernon will be off the books.
Jake Conklin's salary is surprisingly affordable, and although Hooper is "expensive", the real pain will be suffered by other teams struggling to extend their star Tight Ends.
Berry couldn't preemptorally extend Baker Mayfield or Denzel Ward, but have 5th year options on them, as well (which, under the circumstances, their agents would accept without a peep)
BUT what about OBJ? 15 mil, ok?
If the cap is 200 million in 2020 and 170 mil in 2021?
You think you're rolling over 25 million, and find yourself 5 mil in the hole, see? The majority of NFL teams (especially the biggest winners in 2020) are underwater (in cap hell).
You can't trade anybody with any salary. Older players have to take dirt cheap one-year deals (or retire) because draft picks and drafted free agents will be taking their jobs even if they're not "ready" yet.
The players who refused offers and were franchise-tagged are screwed. They're thinking they're going do get an average of more than that tag--chuh! (Well there is a God, after all!)
Gross revenues will almost certainly decline in 2020. 75,000 people sitting side-by-side without a vaccine? No hot dogs or beer sold.
Season Ticket and PSL refunds...
Ad revenues are the bulk of the net haul, but a 10% decrease in the cap is not unlikely.
Paul DePodesta is the perfect guy to turn this into an advantage for his team (well...if he reads this Blog, anyway blush-blush):
1: Turn OBJ and his 15 mil/year salary into 2020 and 2021 draft picks now.
2: Trade DOWN from 10 (if reasonable deals can be made) in 2020 for more current and future draft picks.
3: While dumping Vernon now wouldn't help in '21, replacing him with Everson Griffen (2 yrs, 8 mil/year) would.
You get this, right? The first ever reduction in the salary cap would wreak havoc on veteran contracts, while not effecting rookie contracts. Teams would be forced to let some of their best players go--even if they're early into market value contracts.
NO player will want a new long-term contract, either, unless a DePodesta is willing to estimate the 2022 cap rebound and stick his neck out by offering progressive increases (more analysis required here stand by).
The main point is, the Browns could be forced to release OBJ in 2021 anyway, so if they can get a 2021 1st and 2020 4th round pick for him now, they should.
They'd roll into 2021 with 14 mil more bucks, an extra 1st round pick, and a 4th round pick entering his 2nd season, see?
Elliott Kennel is killing it in analysis. He uses advanced PFF charts and examples (like the Gruden/Mayock Raiders) to make his case:
That DePoBerry is doing a great job building (not rebuilding) a contender.
An interesting rumor I heard was that the Raiders, who draft 12th, might offer Right Guard Gabe Jackson and 12th overall for 10--if they need to, to get their favorite WR.
This is a no-brainer for the Browns, as Gabe Jackson is a top 5 Guard (especially in pass pro) and is 28, with 3 years left on a below-market contract.
The Browns could then trade down AGAIN, and still get Ezra Cleveland (at least).
I've heard more debate on this, even from the PFF guys:
The top 4 (and Josh Jones) are better than Cleveland
, therefore the Browns shouldn't screw around, and should just draft one of these Pro-ready studs.
I respect that, but I think that in this offensive scheme, you can target potential over polish at Left Tackle (within reason).
Sigh...This is NOT a 7-step, vertical passing, drop-back offense! On 3rd and 15, yeah ok-but otherwise, hardly ever.
Cleveland was a Senior Bowl participant, and looked pretty good there vs the best Senior Edge guys. He's essentially a 2-year starter who is deemed "raw"---but is still very good anyway.
But if you want a physical clone of Joe Thomas, Cleveland is as close as it gets in this draft class.
Thomas was a 4-year starter for Wisconsin, and was far more advanced than Cleveland is now, but they have the same basic traits.
Joe Thomas was never a "mauler" at the point of attack, and coming out of college some guys even dinged him for being "more of a wall-off run-blocker" and even "vulnerable to bull-rushes" (*bullcrap, by the way*).
Ezra Cleveland will pack on more muscle and get stronger, and Callahan would make his footwork more efficient quickly in pass-protection, but as-is he might be the best outside zone blocker in this OT class...NOW.
Of course, this fascination with Ezra Cleveland almost certainly is NOT coming from anybody within the organization (although it makes sense).
The REAL 2nd tier apple of their eye is almost certainly Josh Jones, who dominated the Senior Bowl.
Sadly, Josh isn't really a sleeper, and could get drafted even ahead of Becton or another of the "big 4".
Jones has fewer rough edges than Cleveland does, and has nearly the same upside. He's a safer pick, too. He could still be around at 20 (if not 28 who knows? Hell, BECTON is still projected at 28 by some!)
Then there's Ben Bartch! (PFF lists Jones 4th, Becton 5th, Bartch 6th, and Cleveland 7th).
If you ask Bill Callahan to look 3 years down the road and pick a favorite, he might have a hard time deciding.
For all we know, the trade-down "dead"-line might be where the last of these 7 Left Tackles has to mathematically still be there, and that is probably into the second round.
I'm just spitballing here, since it's also possible that Wirfs' very rare athleticism or Thomas's near perfection could be...
NAH! If somebody makes a good enough offer, Berry WILL move down off these top 2 guys.
If the Browns got Gabe Jackson to move down 2 slots, then a 2nd round pick to move to 18-20, and drafted Josh Jones there, would that work?
Well, if you want the best offensive line in the NFL even before you get to day 2, it should.
Then with 2 2nds and 2 3rds (4 more top 97 picks)...wow!
(This assumes that Kareem Hunt doesn't yield a 2nd round pick via the tender, and isn't traded).
Greg Newland thinks the Browns should trade with the Jets for Safety Ebineezer Adams, and make him the highest paid safety in the NFL.
Adams is in his third year, somehow scraping by on a paltry 7 million for 2020, so naturally trading for him would involve a massive raise---
Oh good grief. I can't handle this insan okbye
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