The writer made several great points, like nowadays teams tend to see WRs as expendable. Really, this is because the top guys are overpaid, and teams are forced to "cash out" on them before they can start backing up their semi-sized Brinks trucks.
But then this bozo says that other bozos working for other teams have said that Baker Mayfield and OBJ lack chemistry.
Well, that part was certainly true in 2019, as OBJ zigged and Mayfield threw a zag, and otherwise often missed him by a foot here or 2 feet there.
But more often, he was on the money, and the ball was deflected by a defender who was all over OBJ (*Baker shouldn't have been forcing those passes*).
OBJ, recovering from injury, was mia for all voluntary team activities (ie not even in Cleveland).
Then, playing with an injury, he rarely practiced at full speed during the season.
So how were the 2 supposed to develop chemistry?
Why this was a dumbass article was because it ignored all of that, and said that OBJ and Mayfield don't match up because OBJ needs an accurate Quarterback, and Mayfield has major issues with accuracy.
Well, Mayfield's pre-draft scouting reports (and statistics) called him perhaps the most accurate Quarterback to come out of a few previous draft classes. It was the NUMBER ONE TRAIT that got him drafted first overall.
In 2018, he made Rashard Higgins and other guys named Joe look like Jerry Rice.
Admittedly, Baker had a horrific 2019; he purely sucked. But what kind of dumbass flushes the last FIVE YEARS of this guy's "carreer" based on ONE season?
One season in which he kept forcing the ball to a Dorsey guy who couldn't get open, while he was getting sacked 40 times.
Mayfield's well-known accuracy hasn't disappeared. If OBJ isn't traded before the 2020 season, he'll do well in Stefanski's offense. Know why?
1: Mayfield will be allowed to choose his own targets and distribute the ball evenly.
2: A healthy OBJ can get separation in a phone booth, so he will get open for Mayfield (until he gets injured...again).
Chad Porto cites some deeper PFF stats on OBJ that I hadn't been aware of: OBJ ranks near the bottom of the NFL catches per-target.
Chad really wants OBJ gone, so he might have zeroed in on 2019 (remember forced passes/not open?)
And Porto is one of the people this otherwise dumbass writer and I try to correct: OBJ is not disruptive or selfish. He's well-liked in the locker room, and a good person.
But he has missed literally one out of three games throughout his carreer due to injuries, and is sometimes a distraction.
I think he should be traded because of this, because he is redundant with Landry, because Mayfield doesn't need anybody like him, because of his 15 mil/year cap hit, and because you can find some really good players you do need with the draft picks you'd get for him--for comparative chump-change.
Anyway...Mayfield has a major problem with...accuracy!?!
Clay Goodwin may have read one of my posts from last year, because he wrote a great article about how the Browns can be like the 49ers.
I said this before Stefanski was hired, when it looked like Freddie was going to zone-block, hammer the run, and run timing routes.
Now, Kevin Stefanski is here, and the comparison is almost eerie.
Stefanski and Shanahan are from the same Coaching tree (the Mike Shanahan tree).
Stefanski is a generation removed, as he followed Gary Kubiak (who was John Elway's backup under Shanahan).
This is redundant, but it's been a few months, so:
Zone-blocking allowed Shanahan to save money on running backs and offensive linemen, as it stresses different skill-sets than man-blocking does.
While everybody else was looking for big maulers and backs who could explode into the hole and run people over, the Broncos were accepting lighter, quicker linemen, and running backs with vision.
Elway finally won 2 Superbowls, substantially because of this offensive system.
Kevin Stefanski and Kyle Shanahan have nearly identical offensive philosophies, and this offense has succeeded everywhere.
Before taking over the Niners, Kyle Shanahan finally got the Atlanta Falcons a Lombardi Trophy (and trust me: Matt Ryan misses him).
Clay lists the running game as one comp.
Had the
We've seen the 49ers run the ball 8 or more times in a row.
Conventional thinking says that you need to balance run and pass out more, because defenses can stop either if they focus on it.
That's what I thought, until I saw the 2019 49ers just plain pound defenses into the sand. That's correct: I had never seen that before.
It's not lost on Stefanski, who (trust me) has studied those games.
The 2020 Browns can do that!!! They signed Conklin, and will soon add a stud zone-blocking left tackle, and traded for a real fullback!
I still think that Kareem Hunt will get turned into a draft pick or two, but Chubb barely missed the rushing title only averaging 18 carries/game!
Don't forget Austin Hooper, who can block. (Njoku can actually be extra-effective blocking in space, too. Tight ends are extra-fast 250 lb blockers with long arms, and that is partly why Stefanski wants to use 2 of them, see?)
Clay talks about the tight ends as receivers, but overlooks the blocking.
(Interestingly, Hooper/Njoku aint Kittle, but it's the Browns who have the beastly running back(s).)
Clay compares the respective offensive and defensive lines, and (after this offseason is over), the 2020 Browns could be comparable.
It doesn't look like the Browns DL can have as much depth as the Niners 2019 unit did.
Larry Ogunjobi needs to put on his big boy pants, and I still color Olivier Vernon gone (or injured). We got Garrett but they got Boza...nah, the '20 Browns still got some catching up to do there.
But the offensive lines are a different story! Our draft pick and 3 other guys will be as good as theirs overall (and just imagine if the Browns could get RG Gabe Jackson just for moving down 2 slots...or maybe for OBJ?)
Fullback-check. Janovich is a real fullback.
I get chills contemplating "elephant" sets with only one WR...and the Browns could still pass out of it!
Ooo, this will be a brutal offense, kids! Opposing defenses will be hiding in abused defense shelters and filing restraining orders. I can't wait!
Creative play-calling. Ok I get that (Stefanski proved it with the Vikings. But why does Wade say that Freddie Kitchens "never went back to" the Hunt/Chubb backfield?
People are just making stuff up because it's so much fun for most of YOU to pile on.
No, maybe Wade means Chubb and Hunt lined up behind Mayfield at the snap--but that's a technicality.
Kareem Hunt played a LOT with Nick Chubb, only he usually motioned to or lined up in a slot or wide. If he's not traded, Stefanski will do the same stuff with him, mostly.
In another article, Clay predicts that OBJ will have a much better season this year, for all the reasons I outlined, except he forgot to say "until he gets injured again".
But also: Kitchens never liked to go to OBJ in one-on-one matchups? Wrong! Mayfield went to him way too often in these matchups, and he didn't catch anything because he was covered.
Clay himself said that OBJ was injured. Then, he says that OBJ wins his one-on-ones. So he was injured but as good as ever anyway so it was Freddie's fault?
People are just making stuff up! Ask Chad Porto! OBJ sucked in receptions per-target. Well, he was targetted a LOT!!! He caught 74 passes, and I'm guessing he was targetted over 170 times; around 11 times per-game STOP IT Gabe!
And of course Mayfield's suckdom had nothing to do with throwing all those passes to him despite the fact that he was NOT OPEN.
Clay Goodwin is a pretty smart guy, and I agree with him that Mayfield having more time and OBJ being temporarily healthy will make him scary again. Clay, you're not running for the Democratic nomination. You can't just make stuff up.
Daniel Jeremiah has Superman falling to the Browns at 10 (and then drafting him --Isaiah Simmons--instead of trading down.)
Yep! I think...
"No you HAVE TO take the Tackle/trade down!"
I can't fathom the drafting an OT (pick one) there instead of Simmons. If you think the Browns need another Joe Thomas in this offense, or that any of these guys would help the 2020 Browns more than Simmons, there is something wrong with you.
The trading down part I get, and I would do it for a rediculous haul of high draft picks, but man...
People say Chase Young is the best player in this draft class. Well, he's not. Simmons is. He's just stuck with being called a "linebacker", so...
The Browns still have OBJ and Hunt to trade to help them nab their next left tackle. If not, they have 2 3rd round picks to use to move back up for Cleveland (or Ben Bartch) if neccessary.
Isaiah Simmons can START at SS, FS, or at any linebacker slot (in any scheme). He can cover (tight ends or wrs) in zone or man, and gets sacks and tackles for losses from anywhere he lines up.
Zierlein (good man) documents everything that's wrong with him: Near the line of scrimmage, he makes mistakes. He doesn't have great instincts (like Schobert).
He sometimes takes bad angles coming forward, and misses tackles. He has issues getting off blocks, including tight ends.
Simmons is still an ascending player who started out in college as a safety, and moved to linebacker as he grew into his 6'4" frame.
While he's the consensus-best "linebacker" in this draft class, and won a ton of awards and accolades, he's actually still learning the position!
It's hard to even guess how Joe Woods would start out with him. Since he has the safety positions covered with Joseph, Sendejo, and Redwine, I'd guess weakside linebacker.
...well, nominally. He'd "start" there, but you know: the real base is a nickel, which could be a 3-3, 4-2, or wierder stuff.
So Woods might name him a WIL, but would keep him on the field in some capacity on every single down.
He is a for-real legit edge-rusher. He can also man-up on tight ends or big slot guys. He can also...
Lamar Jackson. Remember him? Well, Simmons can be his kryptonite. Vs other teams,
Not everybody knows what "spy" means:
Simmons would maybe start off 3 yards off the weakside (nevermind just lined up kinda between the left guard and left tackle).
He's set up to react to a handoff, pitch-out, flat-pass or whatever, and is also a 6'4" impediment to any lobs over his head but I digress anyway:
After the snap, he has eyes only for Jackson (btw he's reading Jackson, ok?)
Now, Simmons drifts back a little (once he knows it's a pass), and now mirrors Jackson, wherever he goes.
It looks like zone coverage, but of course Jackson knows it isn't. Doesn't matter. Simmons is still 6'4" and still in front of him, forcing receivers to avoid him, and ready to charge up and nail him if he runs.
Naturally, Simmons would also intercept any called QB runs, too.
Lamar Jackson is a freak himself, so he might juke past Simmons sometimes, but other times he's nailed in the backfield, and...
Ok ok when a QB is in trouble (broken play) his receivers try to get in front of him to bail him out. Also, he will seek targets on his half of the field. Deeper receivers will try to come back towards him.
Well, a 6'4" bastard who clocks 4.39 and jumps 42" really just screws all that up too.
So Simmons is matchup-specific vs the Browns strongest Division rival, as well as being just...amazing.
Simmons will naturally get bigger and stronger as he ages, and could easily weigh 250 lbs in year 3 without slowing down. (He looks incapable of getting fat.)
While instincts can't be taught, most NFL defenders learn to take better angles and make better reads/decisions over time (and through film study).
If you're 6'4" you can take kung fu or whatever and learn to get off (or avoid) blocks.
Isaiah Simmons is a generational talent. An instant difference-maker and anti-Jackson defender. Unless you get a deal you can't refuse, you gotta draft this guy at 10th.
Here are the PFF Offensive Tackle rankings. They're pretty accurate, since real analytics isolate soecific matchups and stuff:
Pat Kirwan, who generally sniffs and snorts at "moneyball", pointed out that Chase Young had zero sacks (and only 8 tackles) vs the strongest 3 teams on Ohio State's schedule in 2019. (Pat is in the closet).
Tackles are easy to analyze based on the specific players they faced in the trenches, and PFF looks at each and every play. They catch every blitze or stunt, and outside from inside, and bull-rush from--well you get it.
The linked rankings are "immediate", but for sure PFF has projections for the respective players' third NFL seasons. Guys like Cleveland and Jones will probably rank a lot higher, and Wirfs might be on top.
You know: Coordinated and intelligent guys who are dedicated and have great coaches will fix their glitches. Guys will get bigger and stronger. Raw guys will catch up with experience.
Analytics tries to figure all of this out.
Would Simmons, Cleveland, and Delpit really be that bad?
Corey Kinnon is one of my favorite writers, but wrote kind of a stinker this time as he made 3 bold predictions for the Browns in this draft:
Wide Receiver will be targeted sooner than we think.
Corey is of course ass uming that OBJ is still here. Ok--he might be.
But Corey has found a "need" for a 3rd Wide Receiver. Corrections:
1: The Browns will NOT use a third WR more than 30% of the time. If Hunt is still here, HE will be a 2nd or 3rd WR. David Njoku will line up at WR.
2: Damion Ratley was stifled by John Dorsey, because he wasn't who drafted him. He's 6'2" with sub 4.4 speed and...well put down the shovel, and step back...
3: A 2-TE offense actually means what it says. It's a BASE offense. And fullback is an actual player who well...will play sometimes, ok?
4: Takitaki and Wilson don't suck.
5: The fact that they wouldn't pay Schobert ELEVEN MILLION/year doesn't mean they hate linebackers and won't draft any before pick 97.
Corey, put the label-maker down along with the shovel. The top linebackers (and some of the safeties) in this class match up in coverage with tight ends and/or blitze. There are a couple Schobert types in there too...at a NINE MILLION DOLLAR DISCOUNT DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Sorry I had to do that to you, Corey, but it was for your own good.
YOU STAND CORRECTED.
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