Wednesday, April 15, 2020

2020 Browns Draft: Pundits' Fuzzy Thinking, Glad We Can't Fire Owners

Dan Justik says that not drafting an offensive tackle at 10th overall would be taking a big risk.  

Dan named 7 offensive tackles, and then says that the class lacks depth at the position.  Perhaps he misspoke.

Dan does make a good point: Waiting til their pick in the second round could see all 7 of those guys drafted by other teams.

Dan isn't talking about a trade-down, but about drafting a player at another position, since any trade-down would return the other team's first round pick (Dan wouldn't mind that, as long as they don't move down too far).

Justik mentions 3 2nd-tier Tackles, leaving out Rodney Bartchfield, who might be a decent target.

He says there are issues with their technical skills and strength, and that they are unlikely to be ready to start immediately in 2020.

That's a bit of a broad brush.  Josh Jones is both stronger and more refined than the other three--indeed in the opinions of several real experts he belongs in the top tier.

Bartch also has a decent anchor and can push people.

But Dan, like so many others, misses these points:

1: This is not a vertical passing or man-blocking scheme.  This offense can start a talented "work in progress".

While he might get "exposed" in certain situations vs certain defenders early on, those situations are rare by design.

2: One of the reasons Stefanski likes 2 Tight Ends is to protect the Tackles.

3: Most real experts are saying that the 7th or 8th ranked OTs in this draft class might have been first round picks in 2019 or 2018.

4: Dan assumes that Hunt or OJB won't be traded.

Greg Newland is writing a good series of articles on players he thinks the Browns should draft in each round.  He offers a few options in each round, in case the top guy is gone.

Greg says that if Isaiah Simmons is available at 10 overall, this means that all 4 offensive tackles are off the board...?...so they would trade down (rather than draft Simmons).

...?

Anyway he might accidentally be correct, since a bunch of teams would be all over Berry trying to trade up for that freak (or possibly a Quarterback), and he might get to hose somebody big-time.

And obviously, at least 1-2 of the top tackles should still be there.

So Greg drafts Andrew Thomas in the first round, then a Safety at 41, then a Linebacker at 74.

Well, meh.  I don't argue with the players Greg lists, but no team drafts by positions or for "need", and Greg is wrong that Safety or Linebacker are more important than EDGE on this team.

Greg isn't willing to acknowlege Redwine's existance, and 2 of the 3 safeties he listed (Winfield and Chinn) mainly play Strong Safety like he does.

Delpit looks pretty good (and they do need a longer-term FREE Safety), but Chinn is a safetybacker.  Do you draft him and a linebacker?

And why does he think Takitaki and Wilson are bumbs?  And why does he himself mention "4-2-5" and keep drafting for 3 starting linebackers?

But I digress: Better late than never, at 97 Greg tries to address EDGE, and does come up with some intriguing options, starting with Bradley Anae, a 6'3", 257 lb DE.

He may wind up best suited to play 3-4 OLB (except you don't want him in coverage) long-term, but Greg is right that he could come in and spell Myles Garrett or (note to all you guys) whoever replaces Pegleg Vernon as a rookie.

He can't bend like other guys and isn't a quick-twitch guy, but he's tenacious, unusually strong, and good with his hands.

Alex Highsmith is the same (except different).

...that was a joke you id---nevermind anyway:

Highsmith is about the same size (248), but is faster and more explosive, with more upside as an eventual OLB.

Oluwole Betiku wasn't invited to the combine, but is similar to Highsmith.

Well Greg Newland is wrong a lot, but it seems like he knows how to look for third round situational edge-rushers.  The tall DEs are all gone by this time, so you reach for the one-trick ponies to help out on third and long.

Nick Dudukovich kids around grading Dane Brugler's mock draft.

Dane picks Becton (over Andrew Thomas) at 10 and gets a "C" from Nick.  I gotta add a "minus" to that.

While I talk trade-down and the quality of the second tier, if you do take an OT at 10, you take the best.  Period.

Wow Duda and I share a brain again as Brugler takes Safetybacker Jeremy Chinn in the second round and gets a "B":

As Nick mentions, Chinn isn't far off Superman Simmons, and would certainly make an immediate and significant impact on this defense.

But he's not a "center fielder" FREE Safety, and may never become one.  Delpit, who Dane shows as still available, can play that more important position.

But Chinn is special.  He's a big-time playmaker.  Yeah.  "B".

First in the third, it's LB Jordyn Brooks.

Here, I have to wonder if the 5-7 linebackers ranked ahead of him, all of which can cover, are off the board already.

Having said that, at 6', 240 lbs Brooks clocked a 4.54 40, and was extremely productive, including 20 TFL and 3 sacks in 11 games in 2019.

He's a run-and-hit guy (great instincts), but has trouble getting off blocks, and "issues in coverage" (not sure what those are), but it seems like he can get on the field right away, and has a very high cieling.

My estimated college gives this pick a "C+", citing a talented Tight End still on the board and concerns about Njoku.

But with Chinn already here (for coverage) I gotta give Dane a "B" on this one (and Nick a "C-" for his analysis):

Stopping the run (and guys like Lamar Jackson) and disrupting offenses is much more important than trying to replace Rodney Njokufield with a third Tight End.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is Dane's 4th round pick, and Nick gives it an "A".  I give both Nick and Dane a "D":

1: OBJ was acquired by John Dorsey.  Andrew Berry is not John Dorsey.  This is the Njoku thing in reverse.  Everybody ass umes that OBJ is integral to Stefanski's plans, and won't be traded.

So they're dissing Hodge and everybody else and looking for backups and slot guys who aren't even as good as Hodge or Higgins wtf!?!

2: Jones is projected in the 7th round.  This is a historically deep draft class...dee-dee-dee-dee imagine, if you will (sigh Twilight Zone zzinggg)

3: The 2020 Browns need Josh Gordon a tall vertical deep threat (even if that's all he can do at first) to balance this offense.  They have all the possession and slot receivers they need (especially since a Tight End will be in the slot half the time &!/÷$!+,😣#)...

Anyway terrible pick and analysis.

Pittman, Claypool, and Jefferson are all gone here? The 9th, 11th, 14th and 15th-ranked WRs are all gone in this draft?

Nevermind CB John Reid in the 6th is good...getting bored here...

Anyway I really respect Nick Dudukovich, and probably overreacted because of that.  I'm not used to reading bad analysis from this writer.  

I can see how some would wonder about David Njoku, due to his drops (most of which happened in his rookie season).  We're spoiled here by Gary Barnidge and (yes) Seth DeValve, who catch like Austin Hooper, but I'm telling you, Njoku has caught most of the catchable passes that reached him, throughout 2018 and in 2019!

His being sent to Dorsey Freddie's San Quentin-sized Dog House along with Higgins et al is irrelevant.  His broken wrist is irrelevant.

The 2-TE set was semi-scrapped when Kareem Hunt was activated, and Freddie stuck with DORSEY guys at TE, GET IT?

I guess Andrew might not find any suckers body willing to "pay up" for OBJ with this unprecedented WR draft class, in which case he will keep him (*he's had his surgery and at 100% should get separation and kick ass again until he is injured again*).

I suppose Pegleg Vernon is "better than nothing" and yeah, the Browns can afford him, and he's also a good all-around player who stops the run too, so unless they sign Clowney or Griffen, Olivier might be here and play well until he gets injured again.

Andrew Gribble tried to break down the offensive tackles in this class.

Frankly, I am clueless about these guys, but am better than almost everybody else at separating the real experts from the copycats, fakes, and rumor-mongers so that I can state credible opinions.

I lean hard on PFF, Pete Smith, Pat Kir but I digress:

Andrew Thomas is THE best Left Tackle right now.

A year or 2 down the road, Brown, Cleveland, Wirfs, or Wills could pass him up, because they have better tools.

By this time, I promise you, Paul DePodesta has this NFL thing down, and will max this situation out.

He's got Andrew Berry back, and Stefanski at Head Coach.  They really are "on the same page", working towards a common goal, and sharing a common vision.

These guys don't slam clip-boards down and storm out of meetings.  They don't utter obcenities, let alone raise their voices.

They disagree, but debate, rather than fight...

Seriously, I wonder whether or not most of you in 2020 can even understand this: 3 (or more) superior (and unique) brains, not struggling for domination.

This is important:  The smartest people on this planet are NOT egotistical, selfish, megalomanic, or insecure.

DePodesta, Stefanski, and Berry all nod and smile at eachother at each meeting, and mean it!  

Stefanski: Joe says he wants Clowney bad, for the longest term you can get.  He knows you can do this for close to Vernon's salary, if only for 2020, and says "please!"

Berry: (heh-heh) I'm working on that.  He's still young, so he wants a "prove it" deal, but he's been injured a lot, so he's insecure too.  I'm doing all I can to sign Clowney for at least 2020.

DePodesta:  We want Clowney long-term.  2 of his injuries and surgeries improved him, he's still a freak we can use everywhere, including to man-cover Tight Ends, and--

Stefanski: No contest!  We can't count on Vernon, and need to...

Nevermind:  We're all gonna die, so what does this matter?  I feel so silly talking about football in the face of this deadly pandemic plague...

You people with your masks...you are POD people; useful idiots.

Destroying the US economy could unseat Trump, so count on the this minor flu bug to destroy the US economy, and for it to be Donald Trump"s fault...?

Ok so:  Are you sentient?  

Obviously not.

The Joe Burrow stuff isn't too different, by the way:

If the Dolphins were to offer all FIVE of their 1st and 2nd round picks (and a 5th and 7th), including 5th overall, to the Bengals for 1st overall, the universe agrees that the Bengals would be idiots to even consider that offer.

Meanwhile, real experts are saying that if Tua were healthy, he would be "the man", pointing out that THREE of Burrow's WRs are locks to be drafted before day 3, and the reverse of that applies to Herbert.

If I'm Mike Brown, I'm taking calls.  Andy Dalton hasn't been traded yet.  Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Steve Young, Tom Brady, Brett Favre etc etc etc were all drafted lower than 5th overall.

I might suck as a GM, but I would be a great owner...because the mob couldn't fire me.

I'll get back into Haslam-bashing later okbye.


















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