One very smart guy has the Browns trading up to 5th for
Most others are trade-downs. But none of them consider the potential trades of OBJ and Kareem Hunt, which could well yield first round picks (even in this WR-rich Draft Class. "Football guys", remember? Eggzbeereeunz?)
They could as well get 2021 picks for these guys, along with (lower) 2020 picks. I've explained this before:
If you're a GM in "win now" mode; you have a contending team and might well get fired if you don't meet certain goals in 2020, you will be much more inclined to part with 2021 picks than 2020 picks (to keep your job NOW).
There are other more analytical reasons for this as well--it's often a very smart move.
Jones, Rosen, Mayock or somebody might want Kareem Hunt, the awesome swiss army knife/bellcow, or OBJ, the plug-and-play instastarter superstar, but hell no, not for their first round pick! (That would be me, in their shoes...well for OBJ, anyway-Hunt is different).
Anyway, a 2021 first round pick is a different story, especially if I expect to draft near the bottom. I get a player who can help me do that, and maybe win me a Superbowl in 2020 and can still draft another stud in the first round.
OBJ is signed long-term, and Hunt is a running back who lacks leverage--both in their primes.
Long-term, this is the best kind of deal DePodesta wants to make. It spreads out the big future contracts to make the cap more managable, and minimizes Jack Conklin or Austin Hooper type casualties.
It delivers more real value over time, as a current 2nd rounder is worth a future 1st rounder.
In this case, the other GM is sorta offering a 2020 2nd round pick for OBJ or Kareem Hunt, (and a low one at that.)
This is a non-starter. The other GM has to cough up more. This could be a player, or maybe their 2020 2nd round pick.
Still with me? This would be like two low 2020 2nd round picks for a young All-Pro, as far as value is concerned. Actually, a great deal for the other GM (yeah I would want more...)
Anyway, it's quite possible that Kareem Hunt could yield a low first round pick in 2020, period, while OBJ could get a 2021 1st and 2020 2nd round pick (and maybe the Browns toss in their 5th rounder).
I know that Chad Porto wouldn't make this trade, but then he wanted the Browns to hand Joe Schobert a blank check, and tends to ignore schemes, market values, and ascending players on the roster.
Anyway, my way the Browns add a low first round pick and a low 2nd round pick in 2020, and admittedly sacrifice two superstar players
Why? Because they need a Free Safety, an EDGE guy, a linebacker or two, a tall deep threat X receiver, and could upgrade nearly everywhere.
Because they need to fill up their piggy bank for Mayfield, Garrett, Chubb, Ward, Njoku (that's right him too--and I bet Ogunjobi comes roaring back in 2020 too) etc.
Because Kareem Hunt is redundant with Nick Chubb in Stefanski's offense, and OBJ is redundant with Landry here, too.
Because 2019 was the first time OBJ ever played all 16 games, and he's historicly missed a third or more of his games to injuries, and Kareem Hunt will be lost for nothing to free agency after 2020.
Because this offense is not designed to make the most of these players' talents (unless Nick Chubb gets injured).
Is any of this sinking in yet?
Anyway, my way, the Browns already have that low first round pick to draft Ezra Cleveland or another Left Tackle without trading down.
They also have an extra 2nd round pick, so they could make a move up from 10th if Simmons somehow slides enough to make such a move viable...or they could just go best available.
Frank Teriaca lists 3 non-OTs the Browns could take at 10th overall. Simmons is a fantasy, but DT Derrick Brown *I like Kinlaw* should be there, as should Safety Xavier McKinney.
Either Defensive Tackle would give the Browns maybe the deepest DT rotation in the NFL, with 3-man front potential (2 nose tackles and 2 DEs).
You want to stop the run? That would help a lot.
But McKinney would probably make an even bigger impact. He can play Center Field, as well as line up anywhere else. The rest of the Safeties in this class are mostly box-players (like Jabrill Peppers).
McKinney would be a bit of a reach at 10th overall, but screw it. OR, they could trade down (a little) and still get him.
In my latest dream-scenario, the OBJ and Hunt trades went down as described, adding a low first and low 2nd round pick.
Now they're at 10th and all 3 of Terica's players are still there.
A trade-down here is very possible, as QBs Tua and Herbert could still be there.
I'll indulge my inner child and say they move down 2-4 slots and pick up a mid 3rd round pick for their trouble, and still get McKinney, (and the Easter Bunny is real).
So McKinney and Cleveland in the 1st round, (and socialism will fix everything).
Now for my wish-list players (disclaimer: I don't watch college football. I rely on certain legitimate pro scouts and experts, so if I am fulla beans, it's all their fault):
1: The linebackers listed 2/3/4 behind Simmons: Queen, Murray, and Baun.
All of these guys are real linebackers who fit in the modern NFL, and should start immediately. Simmons casts a shadow on these guys, but if he wasn't in this draft class, 1 or 2 of these guys would be getting lots of hype, and go in the first round.
Saquon Barkley was all the rage in his draft class. Nick Chubb was an afterthought. It's like that with linebackers, too. These 3 guys, who will probably go in the 2nd or 3rd round, are partly why you don't pay a Joe Schobert triple digits.
Jeremy Chinn and Kyle Dugger. These guys are in Simmons' shadow as well, as they are swiss army knife linebacker/safeties too.
The Browns need to match up with the Ravens (not to mention the copycats) and cover those two Tight Ends and those running backs lining up in the slot and stuff, and these guys can do that (however you label them).
They can also run-and-hit, blitze, shed blocks, and everything else you want your Safetybacker to do.
Again: Second or even third round!
Josh Uche: Zeirlein hammered Josh pretty good here, and based on this analyisis, you wonder if he'll even get drafted.
I noticed Josh because he was THE most impressive defensive player throughout Senior Bowl week. Uche spent most of his time in the enemy backfield.
Uche, at 6'1", 245 is a linebacker. He can man up on Tight Ends as well as blitze.
Uche only started for one season in college, and Zeirlein seems to think that this is because he makes mistakes; lacks instincts.
Uche has good but not exceptional physical tools, but even his harshest critic expects him to be a starter by his third season.
I take the Senior Bowl more seriously than the majority of real experts, especially in the trenches, where it's mano e mano.
Josh Uche might well be there in the 4th round or lower, and I would scoop him up there.
The fact that he only started for one season means that he is inexperienced, which in turn implies more upside.
He will not become an edge-rushing specialist, but might become a starting SAM (who can cover and blitze).
This just in: Ellis L Williams thinks FB Andy Janovich could be Stefanski's "secret weapon", and makes his case for that in the film room.
Okely-dokely! So what is Kareem Hunt doing here?
No-no I hear you: Hunt can do most of that stuff and do it better--so stipulated BUT:
Janovich is under contract for several years for chump-change. Kareem Hunt will soon cost at least 3x as much, see?
Fullbacks are undervalued. It's a market flaw. DePodesta exploits these flaws--that's business analytics.
Janovich's value as a blocker can't be accurately measured, but Kareem Hunt can't match it.
Did the Browns just trade for Janovich so he could back up Kareem Hunt? Is Kareem Hunt going to be a full time WR?
Hey Mary Kay! Why would the Browns NOT trade Kareem Hunt?
Duh, YOU STAND CORRECTED.
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