Joe Woods: 3-4 or 4-3? 3-4 Eventually. Intro to Analytics and the Browns.

Joe Woods is not going to run a 3-4 defense with the Browns.

I remember when Bill Belichick (the worst Head Coach ever) came here from the Giants, and everybody expected him to switch to a 3-4.

Bill did eventually make that transition, but until he had the right players, he ran a 4-3, and then a sort of hybrid defense.

The analysis going on as people try to figure out which Browns' front 7 players might fit the 3-4 scheme, as they all ass ume that Chris Kirksey and his salary will still be here, along with Pegleg Vernon.

Now that I have explained to you why these two players will be gone, I need to correct some more faulty analysis:

There are different versions of the 3-4; it's more adaptable than people think.

We are familiar with the Steelers version, but Wade Philips runs a more aggressive 3-4 in which the nose tackle attacks (through the center).

Belichick did this with the 6'1", 285 lb Micheal Dean Perry, who was one of the most explosive defensive linemen ever.  MDP would set up angled toward the center from the side of his snapping arm.

When he snapped the ball, MDP would hit him before he could get his right arm back in front of him, and drive him sideways--clearing a lane into the backfield.

Micheal Dean hated this.  I never understood why.  Anyway, one or both defensive ends can also behave differently.

In reality, there are no space-eating human fire hydrant nose tackles on the roster that I know of, but both Ogunjobi and Richardson could play defensive end in a Wade Philips type 3-4.  Garrett could also line up there in that version, and at OLB in any version.  Wilson and Schobert could play ILB.

Analysts also ignore variables, like the fact that Olivier Vernon will probably be gone, and the DE position opposite Myles Garrett, along with depth, is shaky.

So is depth at DT.

So Joe Woods might immediately bring in some 3-4-like wrinkles as curve-balls, and to mitigate these issues.

He will certainly have a long-term plan, and an opinion on the types of front 7 players the Browns will sign and draft.

This is an (if you'll excuse the expression) analytical thing:

You have:

1: ONE stud edge-rusher.  He is ideally simply a 4-3 passrusher, but could play OLB or one-gap DE in a 3-4.

2: Four DT/DE hybrids who could play 3-4 DE, but only two front-line 4-3 DT's.

3: Schobert and Wilson are better suited to ILB than they are to MLB, while Takitaki is a better MLB than ILB.

Joe Woods and the Front Office could go either way, starting immediately:

To revive the 4-3, they would need to replace Pegleg Vernon with another passrushing DE, add at least one good rotational DT (more likely two).

To shift towards a 3-4, they'd need a true nose tackle (even Philips has those for running downs), a 3-4 OLB (or two), and...not much else, see?

A couple notes here:  If Leonardo De Dorsey hadn't kicked Genard Avery to the curb...WTF!?! And HE drafted him!!!  Dammit!

...but anyway Rodney Takitakifield might be able to play 3-4 OLB.  He's a good passrusher, and is adequate in coverage.  Not like Avery, of course...dammit Dorsey what were you thinking?  Were you just bored or something nevermind ohmmm....ohhhmmmm....

Anyhoo, given the holes in the current roster, if Joe Woods wants a 3-4, it's probably easier for Andrew Berry to target players suitable for that system than for the 4-3.

The prevailing defensive system in the NFL now is the 4-3, and this matters to us analytical types too:

Pro 3-4 DEs are usually edge-rushing DE's in college, deemed too short or light to play DE in the NFL, but also not athletic enough to play (4-3) OLB.

As a result, they go lower in the draft, as do "undersized" inside linebackers, and huge Defensive Tackles who can't move hmmm...

If Joe Woods wants a 3-4, Paul DePodesta (and Berry) will absolutely exploit it, and get better talent cheaper.

The result could be a Ravens-like hybrid defense as early as 2020 (cool!)  

It goes deeper (you know---analytics🖕?)

You can't land a 4-3 passrushing DE in free agency for less than an arm and a leg, but you can sign 3-4 OLB's much cheaper, as most of them take time to transition from college DE to pro LB, and many are cast aside (like Genard Avery was dammit) prematurely.

The 2020 Browns' defense might be average due to the transition, but should be upgraded much more than it would if they tried to rebuild the 4-3, and should begin to mature in the second half of the season.

Common sease analytics.  Gotta love it.  If you have a brain.

This just in:  Mahomes is better than Garropolo, but Shanahan's system wins.  The 49ers just lost the Superbowl...

Ok we can take Saleh off the table as a Head Coach candidate now, and elevate Bieiniemy, right?

You people...the fact that Saleh's defense shut down Stefanski's offense in the playoffs meant that Saleh should be the next Browns' Head Coach really!?!

...dumbasses...