I'm usually way ahead of all these guys because I think analytically, and for some reason things which are lit up in neon lights to me are often invisible to other pundits.
I'm not trying to insult anybody here: I mean I've also got Browns OCD. When I run into other Browns' fans, I try to act semi-ignorant, but then somebody says something dumb, and I simply have to correct them.
Their eyes get glassy, and they hasten to change the subject. I'm just no fun at all.
Anyway, the Vernon thing: 15.5 mil is upper-tier money for an edge-rusher. Through no fault of his own, Olivier has missed a bunch of games, and has never been 100% for the last few seasons. If he were making 7.5 mil, then you keep him. But at 15.5 mil, he's massively overpaid. Duh.
He's unlikely to get healthier as he ages and the old injuries never fully heal. John Dorsey was stupid to trade what he did for him and his built-in cap hit, and DePodesta/Berry will fix it as well as they can...obviously.
I'll just mention the upcoming OBJ trade once here: In a couple more weeks, this possibility will begin to start to dawn on other pundits, as they start noticing that he, too, makes over 15 mil and has a carreer-long history of chronic injuries.
The fact that he played (hurt) all season makes it more likely that he will miss at least 4 games in 2020. Guys like DePodesta and me just...you know...notice stuff like this, long, long, llooonnnggg before anybody else (including John Dorsey) does.
I haven't mentioned Hubbard for awhile, but then he's an obvious cut who John Dorsey overpaid. Between Vernon and Hubbard, Berry can increase the Browns' cap space to over 63 mil (77 mil---roughly--assuming an OBJ trade).
Nice recovery from the damage Dorsey did!
Remember: John Dorsey inherited a bunch of extra draft picks and cap money that Berry, Brown, and DePodesta had stockpiled.
He promptly paid Hubbard top Right Tackle money long-term.
I don't think it was Dorsey's idea to retain Hue Jackson, but bet Todd Haley was his guy. All the Green Bay guys, including Campen, were Dorsey's.
I still think that Mayfield and Ward were smart picks, but Austin Corbett atop the second round was a clear miss. Nick Chubb? Nuff said. Chad Thomas, Ratley, and Avery were great picks for where they were taken.
I can't bash Dorsey for rolling the dice on Callaway in the 4th round either. His upside is astronomical, and day 3 is when you take some risks. Trading Kizer for Randall was also brilliant.
Overall, I was impressed by John Dorsey in 2018, despite his overpaying Hubbard.
Then came 2019, and wow. He trades Genard Avery for a 4th round pick, trades Peppers, Zeitler, 17th overall, and a third round pick for two chronicly injured players, one of which (OBJ) was not even needed.
Boom! He wipes out 30 mil in cap-space and valuable draft assets, just like that!
He overrides DePodesta on Stefanski and names Kitchens the Head Coach (and lets Gregg Williams go)...
I hear you: The Browns still have like 41 mil in cap space and a couple extra draft picks, so it's not like Dorsey left a trail of destruction in his wake.
That's short-sighted. 41 million?
1: Myles Garrett will be a free agent in 2022, and if he continues on his current trajectory will command at least 20 mil/year.
2: Baker Mayfield is right behind Garrett in 2023. If you think he won't come roaring back in 2020, you are clueless, and HE might command 40 mil by then (so much for that 41 million in space).
3: I left out Larry Ogunjobi, Rodney Njokufield, Bitonio, Chubb, Ward, and
4: Do you hear that "beep...beep...beep"? That's Joe Schobert's and (yes) Damarius Randall's Brinks' trucks backing up! (*you people are as wrong about Randall as you are about Njoku*). Nor is the new regime as eager to kick Dorsey free agents to the curb as he was to get rid of everything without his name on it.
Kareem Hunt can technically be retained as a restricted free agent for 2020, but (see previous blogs) if they don't extend him before he averages 5 yards per-carry and catches 45-plus passes for 450-plus yards, they won't be able to afford him in 2021.
All you need to look at is the last 2-3 conference championships and Superbowls, and how those teams were built. Pay extra attention to the ones that have been there more than once.
NONE of them (including even the Patriots) relied on mercenary free agents. ALL of them drafted the core of their teams, and extended some of those players into their second contracts.
Well, read this slowly and carefully, twice:
This is why the "analytics" guys want to save their money and acquire more draft picks! Is any of this sinking in yet?
Yeah, the Chiefs just won the Superbowl (and the guys on NFL Radio have attributed every draft pick and personnel decision to Andy Reid--and erased John Dorsey).
Still, Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Jones et al were draft picks. Like the Patriots, they added key free agents like Matthieu, Williams (gag) Mitchell Schwartze and Austin Reiter (their starting center by the way), and Cam Erving.
All Andy Reid right? Bullshit! John Dorsey landed all of these guys before they fired him! John Dorsey was Reid's sock-puppet!?! I can see why Dorsey is such a control freak! His name has already been erased from the Chiefs' history---like he wasn't even there. Like he had nothing to do with building that team! Like Andy Reid did that, too---all by himself!
Don't get confused here: You're used to pundits either bashing or worshipping people, but real analysts are objective. John Dorsey did more good stuff than bad stuff and is really good and got screwed and denied his props in KC; the team HE, and NOT Andy Reid, built.
My peeps think I'm a dumbass for defending Freddie Kitchens too. They have me outnumbered, but it was the Trump impeachment. His playcalling was actually good, as was how he structured his offense. Every mistake he made was exaggerated and multiplied; he was under attack permanantly after the Titans (who made it to the second round of the playoffs) stomped his team in game 1.
Dorsey inflicted OBJ on him, and Hubbard/Robinson were exposed, and Njoku broke his wrist, and Higgins couldn't get on the field (OBJ again) and it turns out Zeitler mattered, and Mayfield majorly malfunctioned...but it's easier to blame the Head Coach.
...having said that, I heard what former OL Coach Bob Wylie said about Zampese actually doing the heavy lifting with Mayfield...
Confused again? Sorry. This is what objectivity looks like.
While I'm at it, if you think Sashi Brown was making draft picks and stuff, you're wrong. Sashi wasn't qualified for that, and knew it. Andrew Berry (augmented by Paul DePodesta) made most of those decisions.
And they screwed up, too. I suspect that the Mitchell Schwartze thing was on Sashi Brown, because his original offer was withdrawn. Niether Berry or DePodesta would let this young, elite Right Tackle go like that, once an offer was on the table.
Then we heard Paul DePodesta saying that "we didn't think Wentz would be a top 20 quarterback" after having traded down from him and piling up a boatload of draft picks off that.
That was obviously idiotic, even if Wentz continues to get injured all the time (Wentz never got hurt in 4 years as a starter in college).
Then Reiter. He's good enough to start at center for the Superbowl champs, but not good enough to make the Browns' roster!?!
See previous posts: I thought Reiter was excellent and should start (and that Schwartze should have been retained).
Nobody is perfect. Nobody not many people are idiots.
I can't accept the general negativity in re the Browns in 2020 and beyond.
You're expecting Baker Mayfield to be as bad in his third season as he was in year 2. This is ignorant. Most players (especially quarterbacks) overcome "sophomore slumps" in their third seasons, and Baker Mayfield's history and temperament reenforce that projection.
You're assuming the Offensive Line won't be upgraded. You're writing Njoku off. You think Joe Woods can't improve the defense.
You think the Ravens are unbeatable, see the talented Bengals drafting a generational stud QB, and...ok the Steelers again really?
Andrew Berry and Paul DePodesta won't go "all-in" in 2020 like Dorsey did in 2019, because the Ravens are awesome, and the Bengals will be scary too (not to mention the Chiefs aint going away, and stuff).
Oh sorry guys: I said good stuff about the Ravens and Bengals. You need to get over it. There is only one reality, and here we are.
For the Browns, 2020 has to be a semi-rebuilding year, with a chance at the playoffs. 2021 is the "all-in" year---where the Ravens enter cap hell and have to dump talent, the Steelers have probably not replaced Rottenburgers, and stuff.
The new offensive and defensive systems will have been established, Mayfield will be a seasoned veteran, Stefanski will have faced each division rival twice, and himself have a season as Head Coach under his belt.
The current regime won't tell you this stuff, but to me it's obvious: 2020 is a "write-off", because if you're not ready to get to a Superbowl, it's not time to shoot your wad on overpriced geezer free agents, but is time to (ahem) trade OBJ.
I can't believe I'm the only person besides DePodesta and Berry to see this!!! Check all my previous posts!!!
Get your emotions out of this! OBJ's cap hit is over 15 mil. He's redundant with Jarvis Landry; not a true "X"/deep theat.
Verily, OBJ is a lethal weapon when he's healthy, but for Baker Mayfield and the 2020 Browns, he's worth more as draft picks and cap savings (and if you axe him, he will concur).
Diggs is bigger and taller. Landry is more like Thielen than he is. The Shanahan offense doesn't rely on well...anybody like him.
Here we go again: OBJ plays the clown a lot, but is actually SMART. He almost certainly is pushing to get traded behind closed doors:
The offensive scheme that Kevin Stefanski is bringing here--with Jarvis Landry already here--is not good for him (and you people need to get over this "brothers" stuff! You insult both of them when you expect either to spazz over a business move).
Anyway, it's obvious to me that the new regime will (secretly) agree with OBJ and his agent and trade him.
No, not for Gramps Williams, but mostly for draft picks (Jefferies only if he renegotiates; unlikely--and only as a "throw-in")
Confused again? Jefferies is chronicly injured too, ok? He's too expensive at his current salary. Dorsey might make this deal, but DePodesta won't.
We (real) analysts disagree here and there, but are in lockstep on these points:
1: Ignore names and hype. Check recent stats against overall stats in context.
Context involves age, injury history, the specific injuries, surgeries, prognones, and...well a lot more, ok?
2: Assign a value to every player based on his overall talent, scheme-fit, and your needs, and offer him a take-it-or-leave-it deal.
3: Dump any player who is due 15.5 mil and missed most of the season...
Ok well the few of you who follow this Blog are weeks ahead of the pundits. By all means keep petending you don't know me (except you Bub)
I'm pretty sure that in addition to Bub and the assholes who steal my intellectual property, there are a couple more of you who...
Well, could you please recommend this Blog to your freinds?
Last time I saw my family, my twin brother went out of his way to make sure I knew he never reads this Blog.
I can take a punch. I'm an inelligent analyst. My bro saved my life, and I owe him a lot of money, which I might never be able to repay. I love him, and he has more than earned that love.
...nevermind: You assholes who copy this Blog for articles and thoughts need to hire me, or at least give me credit.
I deserve better. Fuck all of you (no offense)
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