Sunday, February 9, 2020

Browns 3-4 vs 4-3, Analytics vs Dinosaurs, Math 101, Logic 101, and Stuff

New DC Joe Woods says he'll stick with the 4-3 defense, and Terry Pluto and others are glad, since they assume that the current front 7 players belong in a 4-3.

Not exactly.  I've covered this before.  Let's be (ahem) analytical, and break the current players and free agents into 5 categories:

1: Strictly 4-3
2: More 4-3 than 3-4
3: As good in either scheme
4: More 3-4 than 4-3
5: Scrictly 3-4.

Myles Garrett is a 2(.5). He shouldn't be wasting any time in coverage, but is absolutely capable of playing OLB.

Richardson is a 3.  He's quite capable of playing 3-4 DE, especially in a Wade Phillips type scheme, or DT in a 3-4.  

Ogunjobi is a 2.5.

Chad Thomas is a 2.  All the defensive linemen listed could play in a 3-4, but would be kinda wasted in a conventional Steelers type in which everybody 2-gaps.  Equale and Ankou may be a 4 and a 5 respectively, as the former makes a good 3-4 DE and the latter is almost a prototype nose tackle.

I can't get into the other guys...what was that? Oh yeah Vernon.  He won't be here, but if he were he's a 4; a 3-4 OLB.

Now the linebackers.  No offense Terry, but Schobert is a better 3-4 ILB than a MLB.  ALL these guys except Takitaki are ideal 3-4 ILB's, and Takitaki might be a sweet 3-4 OLB.  They're all 4's; more 3-4 than 4-3.

3-4 ILB's run sideline to sideline and cover a lot.  They tend to be smaller and more athletic than MLB's.  They can be, because the defensive linemen keep the big uglies off them...Terry.

That's why Joe Woods could go either way with the crew he inherits--3-4 or 4-3.

I repeat that Berry and DePodesta will probably push for at least a hybrid defense, because inside linebackers are cheaper than middle linebackers, and James Harrisons are cheaper than 4-3 passrushing DE's.

And you guys know that Terrell Suggs is a linebacker, right? Well, Myles Garrett could be like him.

It's business analytics, people!  Why doesn't anybody else get this!?!


Not until Mike Shanahan took over in Denver did Elway finally win 2 Superbowls.


Well, his offensive system had a lot to do with that!  He acquired smaller, more athletic offensive linemen cheaper and lower in the draft because he ran (and helped pioneer) zone blocking.

Any old running back (with vision and toughness) would kick ass for him.  It saved the Broncos a lot of money, and they were able to "pay up" for wide receivers and studly defensive players, you see?  

The 3-4 is kind of the defensive version of that, especially now in 2020 when most NFL teams are running 4-3's.  You save on Inside Linebackers, and find undersized passrushing DE's lower/cheaper and turn them into linebackers.  You even save on defensive linemen, because they can all be mainly run-stoppers.

DePodesta and Berry won't be telling Joe Woods how to do his job, but they will point out to him how a 3-4 or at least hybrid defense would be a ton more efficient and economical than a 4-3.

Example: Cody Williams did a 7-round mock draft and drafted Joshua Uche in the third round.

Cody expects Olivier Vernon to be back for some reason, and just felt that this 6'1" passrushing DE could be part of the rotation.

But Cody was accidentally right:  Uche, or somebody like him, could replace Vernon opposite Garrett, and Uche projects as a 3-4 OLB, ok?  

If Uche were a couple inches taller and 20 lbs heavier, he might be a first round pick, but there he is...in the third round...is any of this sinking in yet?

If Joe Woods gets with the DePodesta program, the Browns can be set up for sustainable success indefinitely.  With both a Shanahan offense and a 3-4 defense, they can draft impact players a round or 2 lower, and sign them 20% or so cheaper.

Furthermore, the more unique the offensive and defensive systems are, the better.  This is partly why the Ravens managed to hang around the playoffs for so long, despite the crippling Flacco contract.  No other defense in the NFL was like theirs, and they kept scooping up oddball front 7 players that nobody else wanted.

Chad Porto thinks the Browns made the right call in not trading for Jimmy Garropolo, and is accidentally right.

The Browns were trying to trade for Garropolo, but for whatever reason, Lord Insideous took the 49ers offer prematurely.  The Browns never decided not to trade for him.

But Chad is right about Jimmy G already being 29 (he didn't mention a lot more expensive than Mayfield), and IMO is right about Mayfield's longevity and higher upside.

Chad also thinks that had that trade succeeded, Jimmy G on those Browns' teams would have been a disaster.

He's accidentally right again: Jimmy G would have won more games and cost the Browns the Mayfield pick.

Randy Gurzi projects 5 "breakout candidates" on the current roster.

Hell YES Drew Forbes (probably a guard here).  An Offensive Tackle in college, Forbes was doing fine until he got injured.  Randy, like me, doesn't flush injured rookies down the terlet.  Forbes has a great chance at starting at RG in a Z O N E.  B L O C K I N G. SCHEME.

WR KhaDerel Hodge was a great catch by Randy! His opportunities in 2019 were extremely limited, but he made the most of them.  As Randy points out, he averaged 19 YPC, and he's 6'2" and over 200 lbs.

Sione Takitaki amen: Randy is projecting him as Schobert's potential MLB replacement in a 4-3, but he's accidentally right.  Sione is indeed an ideal MIKE.  He sheds blocks and doesn't miss tackles.

...and he can play OLB in a 3-4 too.

Chad Thomas!  This DE showed up in 2019.  He's another guy that got flushed because he didn't make the Pro Bowl as a rookie.

Thomas is the starting DE opposite Garrett at this point (unless you think Pegleg Vernon will be retained...jeez.....)

Thomas was good vs the run and got 4 sacks in 2019.  Entering his 3rd NFL season, and given more reps, Thomas could be pretty good.

Njoku is pretty obvious.  While you people are burning Freddie Kitchens in effigy, you're agreeing with him that Njoku belonged in his dawg house.

How convenient it must be to (allegedly) think like you!  David Njoku is a freak talent and a REAL Tight End too.

Randy gives TE Ricky Seales-Jones "honorable mention".  I concur: that kid is talented as hell.

...okbye






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