My Browns ' Mock Draft Attempt: I Did My Best. DEAL with it.

I was as impressed by Derrick Henry AJ Dillon's stellar 40 time as everybody else, but he's not a good fit for a zone-blocking team.

Andrew Berry may or may not be able to a f f o r d Joe Schobert, who is realisticly expected to get offers in the 10.5-12 mil range, but in general, does need to retain his younger, better free agents.

But ok ok time for MY first Browns' Mock Draft!

Ok here's the setup:

1: Jerry Jones trades 17 overall for OBJ (I know, right?):

Amari Cooper is expected to command over 19 mil/year, or around 4 mil more than OBJ, who is under contract through 2023.

Now I would draft a Wide Receiver, but Jerry is like John Dorsey, and the Cowpokes are in win-now mode.  OBJ is a proven commodity, sells tickets, gets to play the Giants twice a year, and is CHEAP (Jerry isn't worried about greedy players holding out for more after a good season).

So, Browns draft 10th and 17th overall.

2: The Browns bail out the Jagwires and permit them to give them a 2021 second round pick to inflict Foles and his 16 mil/yr salary on them.  And the Browns then absorb half of Foles' 2020 salary and trade the 8 million dollar Superbowl MVP to Chicago or Indianapolis for their 2020 2nd round pick.

The lowest 2nd rounder I can find is da Bearss at 18 (I think 50th overall), so now the Browns have 10, 17, 41, 50, 74, 90, and...ok I won't even bother with the 4th round or lower for now.

3: The Browns have signed at least one good Free Agent Right Tackle, even if it's a discounted rent-a-geezer.

4: The Browns have signed at least one top-notch veteran safety (more likely 2).

Ok here we go: 

At 10, the Browns draft DL Derrick Brown or Mr Everything Isaiah Simmons:

QB Justin Herbert kicked ass at the Senior Bowl and shocked everybody at the combine:  Two QBs were going in the top 10 as it was, and now it could be 3 or 4.

Young is also a lock.  Two WRs rate top 10 rankings, and somebody will draft at least one Left Tackle up there despite the depth here (duh analydidigz zuggs).

There is a good chance that one of these 2 players will be there at 10th overall.

If not, this is another trade-down, unless Becton is there.  (I mean trade down if possible, but Becton would work if not):

Becton is not Joe Thomas, but would be awesome in the wide zone scheme; moreso than any of the LT prospects ranked ahead of him.

Ok so (to simplify) the Browns draft Brown, Simmons, or Becton at 10.

Now, at 17th overall, they probably trade down.  They still want another long-term OT, even if they have a FA and Becton, and can still get him much lower in the draft.

...except they might take that top TE or a WR, or a DE...

OK I can't do mock drafts.  Gil Brandt somehow manages to predict drafts better than everybody else, but even his predictions start to fall apart after the middle of the first round.

I can tell you one thing:  If the Browns IT people could fix the glitches which prevent my texts and emails from reaching the Front Office people and coaches, the Browns would win the Superbowl in 2020 easily.

Increase your cap by like 40 mil by cutting/trading OBJ, Vernon, Kirksey etc.  Retain Schobert if he can settle for less than 12 mil of that.

Jack Conklin is still in play for some reason, and is worth 15 mil/year for at least 3 years (guarantees front-loaded, naturally).

That's RIGHT Tackle money, but (shhh) Conklin can play LEFT Tackle (especially in this offensive system).  This is why DePoBerry might "overpay" Conklin or Scherff.

And the Veteran free agent safety markets are stacked.  Safety will almost certainly be at least adequately covered ahead of the draft; long-term and without breaking the bank.

By the time the draft rolls around, the Browns should have (at least) Right Tackle and (yes) both free and strong safety at least adequately covered.

Njoku does NOT need to be replaced duh, and try to comprehend this:

Stefanski ran 2-TE offenses in Minnesota because of the roster he had.  If you think he won't have Kareem Hunt on the field AMAP in 2020, you are an idiot.

If you don't comprehend that 2 running backs leaves only 3 more "skill" slots open, and that Njoku needs to be one of those, and Jarvis Landry another, you probably can't spell your own name right.

Duh Stefanski will duh run a 2-back offense with the Browns because duh he wants his best players on the field as often as possible doyee.

Anybody who would bench Kareem Hunt is an IDIOT DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?

Why does everybody except me ass ume that Stefanski and co will ignore all the square pegs and round holes and just be idiots?

Anyhoo, Chubb, Hunt, Landry, and (yes) Njoku are the 2020 base skill guys (remember OBJ is traded).

YOU people might manage to somehow blame all these guys instead of Baker Mayfield...

Long story, but Mayfield is still a work in progress ok?  If Aaron Rodgers had started as a rookie, that coulda got ugly.  If Favre had remained in Atlanta, we might never have heard of him.  Kurt Werner...well, 'nuff said?

Do the opinions of Werner and Favre about Baker Mayfield matter, by the way?

Man...Tony Grossi got suspended for accidentaly offending little people, but calling Mayfield a "midget" was idiotic.

Are Russell and Brees not shorter than Mayfield?  If we start into Montana, Young, Moon etc there are lots of short people up in here, and I have a correction to make:

Aaaron Rodgers is only 7/8th inches taller than Grossi's "midget" Baker Mayfield...Tony Tony Tony...

Oknevermind okbye

Dear Andrew: TRADE DOWN. And KEEP Trading Down. PILE UP DEM PICKS

I love the mock draft which has the Falcons (16) coughing up their second round pick to move up to 10 for the second-best EDGE in this class.

The Falcons remain in win now mode with a shrinking window, and they need to get in Quarterback's faces right tf now.

The Browns need a Left Tackle first, and find themselves eyeball deep in a perhaps unprecedented Draft class full of them.

Moreover, both of the guys behind the consensus top 4, Austin Jackson and Josh Jones, are perfect scheme-fits for the wide zone blocking scheme.

The relevant mock draft pick was Andrew Thomas (regarded variously as the best to 3rd-best by the majority of analysts) for the Browns at 16th, but if Thomas is still there at that point, and Berry is willing to "settle for" Jones or Jackson, he will remain open for business with 16th overall.

For those of us whose first language is english, Berry is pretty clear:  One of the things he won't be "bound by" is one position player who the Browns deem slightly better than another.

It's likely that the 2020 Browns (and PFF) rank the top 6 Left Tackles in this draft class very close...I mean like their top guy is like 11% better than their number 6 guy.

Berry all but came out and said that he won't forego a trade-down because he's obsessed with or fixated on any one player, unless that player really is "head and shoulders" better than the rest.

In re Austin Jackson, Daniel Jeremiah never even mentioned the fact that his bone marrow donation to his baby sister is what set him back carreer-wise.  (I guess he also had to donate blood and his immune system was compromised I dunno but just it screwed him up a lot ok?)

Can you say..."sleeper"?

This could be Paul DePodesta's perfect storm.  He and Berry are set up perfectly to pile up massive draft picks via multiple trade-downs in this specific draft, and with OBJ.

(Sigh) I'll SPELL IT OUT later jeez okbye

Vernon Mide Gedd Cudd? Really? Browns Must Trade Draft Picks for Expensive Geezers and Stuff

I told you several weeks ago that it would eventually begin to start to dawn on others that Olivier Vernon and his 15.5 mil salary is going to get released, and finally it's happening.

They've been starting to get sporadic glimmers about the impending OBJ trade already good for you, guys!  Need directions?  I've been here for a couple months, so...

I'm pretty disgusted by Baker Mayfield (if the accusation is true), but I'm not going to gossip or moralize here.

Anyway his wife is in those commercials and he probably just lost that gig, plus maybe her.  Karma's gonna git him.

Randy Gurzi dug up some lesser-known prospects at the combine who might fill some of the Browns' needs:

Interior O lineman Netane Muti is a perfect fit for the wide zone scheme, but has torn his achilles and had lis franc surgery already, which is why he could slide all the way to day 3.

Randy thinks he might go in the middle rounds, but I doubt that the Browns would take him before the 4th round.  But Randy is right: If Netane stays healthy, he's a probable 2020 starter at RG (and a significant upgrade at that).

FS Ashtyn Davis (who Randy thinks will be there in the 2nd or 3rd round) sounds terrific (per Randy).

I personally expect at least one high-profile FA safety to be signed ahead of the draft, and disagree with Gurzi in re Damarius Randall.

Randy has leapt to several conclusions about Randall's regression in 2019:

Randy says (authoritatively) that Randall was frustrated over not having been extended, and...sorta like...didn't play well (in his contract year) because of it(?)

It couldn't possibly have anything to do with the new Steve Wilks coverage scheme, which is a lot different than the Gregg Williams scheme in which he thrived, and which looks more like the Joe Woods scheme, right?

But Randy makes a strong case for Ashtyn Davis, and he might be a best-available pick, even if you've got the safety holes plugged.

Mekhi Becton...'nuff said I guess.  While the PFF guys were alarmed by his low number of true pass-sets in college, the Offensive Line coaches and scouts I've heard from have zero concerns in that area.

He's got the feet, and the rest can be coached.  Obviously, he's Randy's 10th overall...if they don't trade down (see last post).

Ok a Josh Jones and an Ashtyn Davis would be better than just a Becton.  It's not that complicated, see?

I really like Randy's logic in looking at NT Leki Fotu, along with other pure run-stuffing 2-gap DTs.  Randy is right:  These guys are undervalued the pass-first NFL, so you can get some real studs in the lower rounds.

I can take this further:  While everybody else has been asleep, DePodesta and I have noticed that the 49ers got to the Superbowl by RUNNING the ball, and the Chiefs beat them by RUNNING the ball.

More and more 2-TE, physical, run-oriented offenses are emerging to screw up nickel-based defenses built for speed at the expense of power.

It's an arms race, you see, and the smartest teams stay ahead of these trends by doing stuff like...well, drafting studly human road-blocks on day 3!

Fotu (or whoever) might only play 30% of the time, but that means that Ogunjobi or Richardson get a breather.  And guys like Fotu are in on all the 4th and shorts and goal line stands...they matter, ok?

Ah Isaiah Simmons.  He'd have to be 10th or higher.  The guy's just a freak who can play anywhere except on the Defensive Line.  It would be very hard not to draft him instead of a Left Tackle at 10 except...well...a bunch of other teams would be calling Andrew Berry about that, wouldn't they (tee-hee)?

PS I 62.1% think Joe Schobert will be back, and 77.9% think that some good veteran starter will be here before the draft.

Full disclosure: I didn't actually read Chad Porto's article on 3 players that he thinks the Browns should trade for, but didn't need to:

15-plus mil geezers.  Darius Slay, who's bottom line is demanding the top CB salary in the NFL.  Chris Harris, maybe, but

Crap, Chad!  You're John Dorsey on steroids!!! You want to spend ALL the cap money on geezers AND cough up a bunch of draft picks too!?!

I truly wish you were running one of our Division rivals, Chad. (Or maybe the Jets.  Then we could get 11th overall for OBJ!)

Mary Kay Cabbott did a decent analysis of the decisions Andrew Berry will need to make this offseason, but of course I need to make a few corrections:

She was fine on 1-5 (not sure why she even mentioned Garrett), but (being a girl, I guess) got kinda mushy on Chris Kirksey.

He's GONE.  OBVIOUSLY.  (Nothing personal Chris it's business sorry man)

Andrew Berry is predictably pretending to be determined to keep OBJ no madder wudd, but...really...obviously wants that 15 mil back, along with very high draft picks...

Jeez but anyway also Jack Conklin can absolutely play Left Tackle and Scherff...jeez do your homework Mary, ok?

Still, overall, Mary Kay gets a solid "B" for this article.

She did great on Schobert, Njoku, and Randall.  If I'm grading on a curve, RANDY, she gets an "A", thanks to your Randall-bashing.

Last call YOU STAND CORRECTED okbye

Cleveland Browns Draft and Free Agency Stuff and Stuff: Strategery (and stuff)

I've already talked about Senior Bowl dominator Left Tackle Josh Jones, but Daniel Jeremiah thinks that USC's Austin Jackson is the better player, and a great fit for a wide zone blocking scheme.

It looks a lot like the highest either player will be ranked by most experts (maybe including Jeremiah himself---in this case he's focusing on certain scheme-specific traits, and he may have the other guys graded higher overall) will be 5th among the tackles.

If Berry agrees with Jeremiah, he may kinda rank Jones and Jackson very close to eachother.  Jones is also a basketball player-type athlete, but needs more polishing.

Upon further review, if I were the Jets I wouldn't trade 11th overall for OBJ unless WR's Lamb and Jeudy were off the board, and of course Drew Berry can't wait for that if he wants to cash Dorsey's mistake in, so it's 10th overall.

USA's latest mock has a bunch of WRs going in the first round, and all of those teams are candidates to trade that first round pick for OBJ instead.

It's doubtful that even Lamb or Jeudy could approach OBJ's production as rookies, or perhaps ever---and as you keep going down that list, the comparison gets more extreme.

In this mock WRs go 13th, 20th, and 22nd (after the Jets take Jeudy), so Berry could reel in any of those picks in trade--with interest.

Meanwhile (per USA Today), only ONE OT (Wells) is drafted before the Browns turn comes at 10th overall.

This would (if Berry concurs with Jeremiah, and could somehow manage to live with any of the remaining F I V E OTs), enable him to trade down up to 7 slots.

I say 7 because super-safety Delpit, QB Love, and DT Kinlaw are still there, trade-ups for OTs in this situation would be idiotic, and not everybody desperately needs a Tackle.

So Berry moves down as much as he can, then reasesses.  Well, what if USA Today's scenario plays out?

The next OT doesn't come off the board until pick 15!  Wow and 4 of them are still there!

I could go on and on, but basically Josh Jones is drafted 25th, Becton 26th, and Austin Jackson not even in the first round.

Naturally, the combine and pro days will move these guys around a lot, and everybody is just throwing mock darts right now, but this illustrates some possibilities that DePodesta and Berry are definitely already plotting.

"Oh no!  Trading down again?  Yeah that works!  Corey Coleman! 1-31!"

That's just plain dumb.  The fact that one prominant draft pick was a "miss" doesn't negate the strategy, and 1-31 had a ton more to do with pre-Mayfield quarterbacks and Hue Jackson than with team talent.

Every Pro Bowl is full of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round draft picks.  Most of the best non-running backs stumbled around as rookies, too.

Right now, the free agent market looks pretty good for the Browns' real needs. Damarius Randall is NOT off the table, and there are several top-notch young free and strong safeties out there (especially on the Vikings team Stefanski just left, and Joe Woods left a year earlier).

While I don't think Conklin will make it to the open market, there are a couple other non-geezer OTs that will, and could certainly upgrade RT significantly.

Run-stuffing Defensive Linemen are dirt cheap these days, and when you carry 8 DLs on your active roster, 2 of these CAN get your studs off the field 30% of the time.

Linebackers are pretty cheap too.  I want Schobert back too, but not at any price.  And linebacker is NOT a position of need on this team!

By the time the draft rolls around, a bunch of secondary needs (and wants) will probably have been addressed through free agency.

By then, Berry might well have a decent Right Tackle, solid (or excellent) safeties, and quality Defensive Line depth.

LEFT Tackle, OT depth, EDGE, and depth there might be the only important holes left (I forgot backup QB.  Keenum, I hope).

Ellis L Williams wrote a truly educational Film Study article on why the Browns need to keep Kareem Hunt.

Not much of this will sound new to any of my regular readers, but Ellis goes into a lot more detail--even comparing him to Stefanski's fullback in Minnesota, C J Ham.

There's little resemblance between these 2 players as athletes, but Ellis expects Kevin Stefanski to use Kareem Hunt the way he used Ham, and for the results to be a lot more productive.

Ellis even compared the two as blockers, and gave Hunt the nod.

I have to add here:  Hunt is quicker and faster, so he can get to spots faster and position himself more favorably than Ham can, especially on chip-blocks.

The bulk of Ellis's dissertation focussed on Hunt as a receiver out of the backfield.

I've compared Hunt/Chubb to Byner/Mack, but after watching Ellis's film study, it's not the same.

Schottenheimer's offense didn't use wide zone blocking, and didn't send Byner "against the grain" (after a false step) like that.  Earnest Byner generally just "drifted" outside and caught dumpoffs behind the line of scrimmage--then improvised and ran people over.

Ellis didn't cover everything, either:

C J Ham didn't line up at WR, but Hunt can, and Stefanski will exploit that, too.

Because Hunt doesn't have a "WR" next to his name, you people ignore him in that capacity.  WOW.  Just...WOW.

For those of us who think with our brains, Kareem Hunt is Jarvis Landry on steroids.  If Landry was as big and strong as Hunt...well there you go.

But you people: "Budd iv we trade OBJ we need more wide rezeeverz oyeee"...because Hunt has "RB" next to his name.

...and because you've written Rashard Higgins off (wtf!?!)

Seriously you people, how can you be burning Freddie Kitchens in effigy and simultaneously taking each and every one of his personnel decisions to the bank!?!

David Njoku and Rashard Higgins suck?  

Most of the pundits are even dumber than you:  In addition to "couldn't find ways to get OBJ the ball", I've read "couldn't find Higgins", and "inconsistent" in re Njoku.

Yeah, blame everybody but Baker Mayfield, no?

I wish I could think like you people.  Ignorance is bliss (no offense).  You're going to vote, aren't you?  I'm so glad I'm close to my expiration date, so I will hopefully miss the results but I digress:

Rodney Kitchensfield did a good job of exploiting Kareem Hunt in 2019, and Ellis used some of this film in his article.

...but dayumm...with that wide zone blocking scheme and Hunt instead of Ham...oh that's just plain LETHAL...

Stefanski has to love it.

The Browns are no doubt trying to extend Kareem Hunt, but his agent is no doubt holding out for his ok nevermind last call okbye

Browns Trade Ideas and Free Agents and DePodestian Stuff

Elliott Kennel came up with another "Cap Rescue" trade idea.  (To review, Elliott wanted the Browns to do an Osweiler-type deal with Nick Foles, except have a second trade lined up;

The Jagwires give the Browns their 2021 2nd round pick to relieve them of Foles' guaranteed 16 mil salary.  The Browns then pay half that 2020 salary and trade him to another team (Elliott thinks Chicago but I think it could be Indianapolis) for another second round pick--basicly buying 2 second round picks for 8 million bucks).

That was brilliant, and is realistic, too!

Now, the Village Elliott thinks that the Browns should bail the Vikings out, too.

The Vikings have 3 expensive geezers (*who are still starters and still good players, mind you*).  They trade one of thesefor a 2020 Browns 2nd round pick, BUT cough up their 2021 1st round pick in return.

This is really clever (and once again not unrealistic), but I'm not nearly as thrilled about this one as I was about the Foles proposal.

The Vikings may well take a step back in 2020, as they are 12 mil over the cap, and will have to lose Joseph, Reiff, and Griffin, who are all at least 32 and represent 8+ mil cap hits.

They might jump at this deal, since they could really use that extra 2020 Browns' 2nd round pick (they're still contenders in "win-now" mode; they need to get immediate impact out of their draft class).

For the Browns, all 3 of these players represent upgrades and plug holes in the current roster.

However, they are one-year rentals.

The Vikings are very likely to draft in the bottom 10 in 2021, and the Browns high 2nd-roun
der in 2020 represents a cheap probable starter with a promising future.

Sigh...I could argue both sides of this one, even channeling DePodesta.

I mean, the swing on the "flip" might be 20 slots or so, and the immediate veteran upgrade could be useful in a weakened AFC North (except for the Ravens, I mean).

The vets are leaders who have been to the playoffs.  They'd be good for the younger guys to learn from.  

The longer-term cap situation matters a lot to DePodesta (and no doubt Berry as well):

Do the Jets and Browns do an OBJ trade (for 11th overall)?  Do they bail the Jagwires out and get 2020 and 2021 second rounders out of it?

If so, then Paul and Andrew would want to dump that 2020 second round pick for a starter (or major rotational player) and a 1st-rounder next year!

If you don't understand why this is, you need to go back a year or so and read some of what you missed in this Blog.

If you draft too much talent all at once, and pick well, then you WILL face cap hell like the Jaguars and Vikings are now.  Also, first-round picks include a 5th-year club option (makes a big difference).

Confused?  ...ok so am I.  There are too many variables here, but I gotta say I have talked myself into liking Elliott Kennel's Vikings bail-out proposal a lot more.

Imagine if everything that should happen does happen:

1: The Jets trade 11th overall for OBJ.  

OK it's bullcrap that OBJ demands the ball all the time.  He gets in fights with kicking nets and stuff, but he just hates LOSING.  OBJ is NOT Antonio Brown.  He is NOT selfish or egomaniacal.  He's just emotional.  And his behavior in 2019 was pretty uneventful, which is relevant.

2: The Browns mediate/subsidize a Foles trade:

That's a 2021 2nd round pick and (in my own opinion) a 2020 2nd round pick (or maybe a 3rd I need to study some more on this).

At this point, Andrew Berry has 10/11 in the 1st, (pessimisticly) his own 2nd, and 3 3rd round picks in 2020.

ALL of these players are potential immediate starters, specialists, and/or key rotational guys, and trade-downs are likely.

In this case, Paul DePodesta would want Elliott's proposed Vikings bail-out trade (ie trading his 2020 2nd rounder for a bottom third 2021 1st rounder and a good 2020 renta-player).

Right now, the Browns are rich and about to get richer (over 34 mil net for Vernon, OBJ, and Kirksey), and the Browns actually have to spend more money per the CBA.

Add the Village Elliott's latest proposal onto everything else, and after 5 Day 1/2 picks in 2020, the Browns have 2 firsts and 2 seconds in 2021!

I can't wait for Elliott Kennel's next trade-proposal! 

MKC is fretting over Landry and OBJ being unavailable to chemically combine with Baker Mayfield in the upcoming offseason.

This is funny, since OBJ will be a GMF anyway, and the Browns will be running a mainly West Coast timing offense in 2020 anyway.

Mary Kay probably flunked chemistry:  "Chemistry" is way more important to conventional passing schemes than in timing schemes...and as MKC herself admits, OBJ is not a good fit (cognative disonance again).

Timing routes are precise: You MUST be HERE at THIS point in time (no hollering "hit me I'm open!", see?)

Certainly, some guys are quicker/faster than others, and allowances are made for press coverage and stuff, but the QB still throws to a spot BEFORE the receiver breaks (or looks back) ok?

Mayfield is mainly an "air-raid" guy, but those who think he can't run a West Coast are mentally impaired.  He simply has to trust his receivers and throw on time...

Long story (jeez) but the system makes guys like Higgins and Gabriel look awesome...

Okbye

Browns/Jets Trade: Odell Beckham Jr for #11. Let's Do it!

Thanks to Matt McFatridge and a Jets writer, I now see the Jets as an ideal trade partner for Odell Beckham Jr.

The Jets have a decent amount of cap space.  They don't have a true number one WR, and 2 of their top 3 are unrestricted free agents.

Inflation could drive Robby Anderson's new salary up close to OBJ's current one, and the terms of OBJ's contract might make him the better deal--even ignoring the difference in talent and production.

They have a decent amount of cap space, and have a definite need.

The Patriots are about to lose Tom Brady, the Dolphins are scrambling for a Quarterback, and Sam Darnold sort of came into his own in 2019.

The Jets are unlikely to find an instant-impact difference-maker at 11th overall.  OBJ sells tickets, and he redeemed his image somewhat in 2019.

This makes too much sense for the Jets (and for OBJ).

Andrew Berry probably couldn't hold them up for more than 11th overall.  In fact, the Jets would start out offering less, or demanding additional compensation for 11th overall, but 11 for OBJ is about right for all parties.

Just for fun, I'll fantasize and say this trade happens, and that the Browns do a 3-way to get Nick Foles off the Jagwires cap and to Indi or Chicago for 8 mil and collect two second round picks for 8 mil in 2020 and their efforts too.

This would add 11 overall and maybe a middle second rounder in 2020 (and another in 2021).

Josh Jones is ranked 4th among Offensive Tackles by PFF, and 8th by Walter Football:

Jones is physically the closest Left Tackle to Joe Thomas, but gets dinged by his level of competition and some technical flaws which will need to be coached out of him...also he's more a wall-off guy than a road-grader in the running game.

While PFF has reservations about Becton, 3 other Left Tackles look studly and safe (as a top 10 pick) in this draft.

3 Quarterbacks (possibly 4) will go in the top 10.  Young, the Garrett-like EDGE Buckeye, will almost certainly get snatched up before #10 as well (dammit), and 1-2 Defensive Tackles...well ok probably at least 6 non-Offensive Tackles should go in the top 9.

This is predictable; DePodesta can count on it as a bottom line.  Teams will be trading up and down, but when the dust settles, DePodesta can count on at least 1 really good Left Tackle being available at 10(/11 tee-hee).

Having 10 and 11 would be extremely valuable, you people:

All surprises in the top 9 are happy accidents.  A 4th Quarterback, or a WR, or a second DT, or that freak Safety (whatever) pushes the players that Berry and DePodesta have targeted down another rung.

Now, they can trade down from 10 and/or 11, or both, depending on how this shakes out, see?

1: Other GMs who think that the Browns themselves will draft their player will offer more for 10th overall.

2: The pick is no longer position-specific.  They can nail a Left Tackle at 10 or at 11.  This means they can pretty much go best available with 10 or 11 if it shakes out that way.

3: All GMs group players on their draft boards.  For the Browns, owning 10 and 11, this group would be much more fun:

They might well have 3 Left Tackles, 1 Edge guy (Young of course), and maybe a DT and/or somebody else in their group of acceptable picks at 10/11.

-snap-snap- still with me here?

Well, what if the Browns hit the clock at 10 with 4 of those players still there?

Well DUH!  They can trade down 4 and 5 slots respectively, and still be certain of landing 2 of their top targets!

It's tough to explain this math; how the 2 consecutive top 11 picks become exponentially more valuable, but they do, and Paul DePodesta will want that 11th overall pick from the Jets:

In addition to dramatically increasing his cap space, Paul gets an exponentially increased trade-down possibility (much more than just 11th overall)...

I don't think Tony Grossi (or John Dorsey, for that matter) gets this trading down stuff.

Imagine if Young somehow makes it to 10.  Well, you can STILL trade that pick, and draft him 11th overall! 

It's deep.  It's "analytics".  You can make fun of us "moneyball" geeks all you want, but Lord Insideous was a geek-savant, and has been punking the foodball guyz for decades.

Anyway I hope the Jets, Jagwires, and somebody else wants to deal, because this could be a historic year in NFL history.

Simpletonians will refelexivey point at Corey Coleman and stuff, but that's not analytics.  Analytics can't figure out a player's heart or mind (and never tries to).

...too deep in the weeds here, plus I cashed out.  Okbye.

2020 Browns Free Agent Targets, Rodney Njokufield, Delusional Writers, Dumbassitude

Just for fun, I checked out USA Today's Tim Torch as he recommends 9 free agents for the Browns.

Guard Brandon Scherff (28) fits the DePodesta/Berry m/o, as they spent serious long-term money to add Kevin Zeitler and JC Tretter to Joe Bitonio to create one of the best interior lines in the NFL.

Scherff, an OT at Iowa, was drafted 5th overall in 2015.  He didn't work out at Left Tackle in the NFL, and I believe he had some injuries, but he's recently become an impressive guard for the Redskins.

Tim did a nice job of analysis on him, but I need to add that possibly he could be a candidate for Right Tackle for the Browns in 2020, and OL Coach Bill Callahan, who coached Scherff in Washington, will know.

Tim likes Arik Armstead (a little better than Chris Jones) at DE next.  Poor Tim doesn't seem to get that Olivier Vernon and his 15.5 mil salary are going to get released, so he calls Armstead a "pie in the sky" option, as he will cost a fortune (Tim thinks 20 mil/year).

Armstead is only 26 years old, and had 10 sacks with the Niners last season.

Chris also didn't check out Vernon's dead cap money, as he doesn't get that the switch from Vernon to Armstead would literally cost the Browns less than 5 mil net.

This one is shaky for me, as DePodesta isn't going to want to spend 20 mil/year on a position he may be able to fill for comparative peanuts in the draft.

Since he was drafted in 2015, Armstead never approached double-digit sacks until his contract year in 2019.  The Browns will let some Dorsey-like foodball guy massively overpay Armstead...20 mil seriously?  Really?

TE Austin Hooper (projected at a little under 10 mil).  I like this guy a lot as a receiver.  He's not a big-play guy, but gets open and is reliable as hell.  He's actually a decent in-line blocker too, and is only 25 years old.

Those who ass ume that David Njoku is persona non grata with Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski are competing for the olympic record in the conclusion-leap, but Hooper is really interesting.

First, the Browns have the option to retain Njoku through 2021.  They have to excersize this by March...15th(?) 2020, but there is no urgency to get rid of him.

Hooper/Njoku in 2-TE sets could be a great option for Mayfield and Stefanski in 2020, and signing Hooper long-term would be great insurance in the unlikely case that Njoku craps out.

More realistically, DePodesta might look at trading either Tight End in 2021 for more draft picks.

Jack Conklin is my favorite RT too, but the Jags have the cap space to keep him, and probably will.  Too bad.  He's great.

I don't know Kendall Fuller, but Tim (and PFF) say that he was the best slot corner in the NFL in 2017, then got traded to the Chiefs and disappeared for the last 2 seasons.

Tim is right that Fuller will be Flea-market cheap, and DePodesta may well seek to ruthlessly exploit Kendall's misfortune (unless Berry tells him not to).

Case Keenum absotively!!! The ideal Mayfield backup/mentor.  Been there! Done that!  Stefanski was his position coach when he kicked ass with the Vikings.  Amen!

Jimmy Ward yes: Ward (28) was the Niners utility DB, playing Free safety 2/3rds of the time for them.  He shouldn't be very expensive, considering his versatility and solid FS performance.

Ward can play every DB position (well) and (per Tim) missed only 3 tackles in 2019.

Ward is a little like Austin Hooper.  Above average, versatile, and hyper-reliable.  These guys are rediculously undervalued by foodball guyz.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (27) is another Flea Market safety that Tim dug up.

Dix was a first round draft pick with prototype measurables and tape, but hasn't lived up to that.  Dix has been a good player, however, and Tim Torch (I like this guy) smells another bargain for DePodesta to exploit (bring us your first-round busts, your injured, your out-of-position, your underrated...)

SS Karl Joseph (another 1st round pick) is 26.  Another very solid and reliable guy without the shiny object stats which attract foodball guyz big money.

I gotta say, Tim Torch has impressed the hell out of me with this list of good Browns' free agent targets.

It's so refreshing for me to go through NINE whole guys and find so little dumbassitude!

Just a note to Tim: Olivier Vernon will be released, with almost zero dead money.  This regime will absolutely NOT offer Arik Armstead even that much.

But everything else you wrote was brilliant.

This Njoku-bashing is outta hand, as this article from behind the Steel Curtain demonstrates:

This writer thinks that the Steelers should consider offering a FOURTH ROUND PICK for Njoku, to take him off the Browns' hands.

Obviously, this is a dumb article, but you people need to consider what spawned it:  Dumbassitude over here!

The Steeler writer was actually smarter than our local dumbasses, since at least he thinks David Njoku doesn't suck, ok?

Still, it bugs me that this Steelers guy expects Andrew Berry and a newly-empowered Paul DePodesta to be as stupid as the people they succeeded.

A FOURTH ROUND PICK?

I can't get past that okbye

There Go the Real Football Players! Next they'll keep Njoku and Stuff! 1-31 All Over Again in perpetuity we're all gonna die

We knew this would happen as soon as Andrew Berry was hired, and here we go: Berry has already cut 4 of the real football players John Dorsey added to the roster last season.

No doubt Berry and Mister Moneyball intend to resume stuffing the roster with fake football players who will go 1-31 again.  Rinse and repeat.

I can't sustain that level of stupidity for more than 2 paragraphs anymore:

TJ Carrie is a good player who Dorsey overpaid.  Adarius Taylor was an adequate player who Dorsey overpaid.  Kush seemed like a good deal at the time.

Demetrius Smith was a Dorsey favorite who replaced fake football player Darrin Fells just in time for Fells to catch a bunch of touchdown passes for another team...and who Dorsey overpaid.

The cap savings for off this move increases the Browns' cap space by around 15 mil (that's right, folks:  I told you: overpaid. It would be great to hold onto Carrie, but no way at his salary).

Many pundits expect the new crew to conduct a "purge" and load up on familiar players, like John Dorsey did.  That is utterly clueless.

Jarvis Landry is probably in good shape.  IMO Terrence Mitchell, Kareem Hunt, Sheldon Richardson, and all of Dorsey's remaining draft picks have every chance to succeed here.

Analytics isn't egotistical.  DePodesta, Berry etc don't give a damn who signed or drafted who, or who will get credit for them.

Idiots are blaming Berry and DePodesta for 1-31 and leaving out one Hue Jackson (and Kizer and Kessler) because this crew didn't want any of them.

They're also mindlessly assuming that they wouldn't have picked Mayfield first overall or used the draft picks and some of the cash they had piled up in 2018 like Dorsey did.

What's with you people?  You think the analytics guys just trade down and refuse to spend money just...forever, or something?  No target?  No plan?

Dorsey is a great judge of talent, and DID have more to do with building the Superbowl champs than Andy Reid did, but look what he did TO the Browns; to DePodesta's plan:

1: That dumbass trade with his buddy Geddleman and the Giants (I won't repeat myself too much, but part of this involved fake players Zeitler and Peppers for real players OBJ and Vernon, around 20 mil in cap space, and a first and a third round pick...that's exptremely cringe-worthy, is it not?

2: Kicking fake TE Fells to the curb and replacing him with good ole Demetrius.

3: Kicking fake player Karl Nassib to the curb (along with Ogbah)

4: Replacing Bob Wylie with good ole Campen, the greatest OL Coach in history (pay no attention to the man behind the curtain)

5: (full disclosure I agreed with him) naming Freddie Kitchens the new Head Coach for 2019 (overriding DePodesta who wanted Stefanski).  (Dorsey and I both look wrong so far).

6: Inflicting Mywayorthehighway Haley on Hue Jackson--not firing Jackson sooner (the last part probably wasn't Dorsey's fault.  Retaining Jackson after 1-31 had to have been Haslam's call).

Anyway, DePodesta, Berry, Stefanski and company think with their brains, which just naturally makes them more efficient and effective than their equally smart "foodball guyz" because they aren't urinating on trees to stake out their turf and killing Dorsey's cubs and stuff.

These 4 cuts were predictable (and they're probably trying to get Carrie back for less money).

I've predicted a Vernon release and OBJ trade, but that's about money and draft picks, and if they can get Olivier Vernon back cheap enough, they will (he's really good when healthy).

Chris Kirksey isn't a Dorsey guy, but is a GMF...

At the same time as the punditry half expects a Dorsey player purge, they expect the NEW REGIME to kick Damarius Randall to the curb and try to cash David Njoku in (as does this Steelers' writer.)

Well nooo... David Njoku remains a freak athlete who Freddie Kitchens (who everybody agrees screwed everything up) stuck in his dawg-house.

Well Njoku's siblings include (I think) a couple MDs, an engineer, another freak athlete, and they're all disciplined and SMART, ok?

Character-wise, David Njoku is a guy you want on your team.

And NO, Kitchens didn't bench Njoku because Baker Mayfield forgot how to throw to him (where tf does that come from!?! A soap opera?  They "drifted apart" or something gimme a fking break!!!)

Ohmmm.....ohmmmm....

Peter Smith and PFF don't think much of David Njoku as an in-line blocker, but shame on Peter for overlooking the wide zone blocking scheme that Stefanski brings with him, plus the certain upgrade at Offensive Tackle that's about to happen, plus the fact that many current Tight Ends RARELY block in-line today.

Njoku can be retained on his rookie contract for 2 more seasons on his rookie deal.  Andrew Berry (and DePodesta) had everything to do with drafting him in the first place, and here we go Steelers' writers are wondering if they can get him for a bag of donuts!?!

And why is everybody ass uming that Rodney Randallfield is a GMF?

2018 never happened?  The Woods coverage scheme isn't nearly identical to Gregg Williams'?  

Damarius Randall has very little leverage here (no Brinks' truck).  He can man cover slot guys, excel as a center fielder (see previous posts)---assuming his latest injuries haven't screwed that up.

Rightfully, many pundits expect the Browns to go after Vikings FS Harrison Smith (and several more Vikings players, as Minnesota is in cap hell, and the Browns have Stefanski and lots of money).

The bidding war on Smith could get rediculous, and John Dorsey isn't here anymore.

In 2018, in the Gregg Williams defense, Randall was easily a top 5 FS.

Unless team doctors say that Randall's recent injury won't mess him up, the new guys will try to retain him...for perhaps less than 1/3 of what Smith will cost overall (except front-loaded so that...oknevermind) anyway when tf did you guys decide Damarius Randall sucked?

Everybody wants Joe Schobert back.  I concur, unless he gets too expensive.

As I've said, screw what Joe Woods said about running a 4-3.  He won't.  

This gets deep: Ok well the Ravens are technically a 3-4 and Wade Phillips is like that too, except not really.

Both defenses could be called "4-3"'s, if you go strictly by where players line up, and don't get stuck on who is standing up and who isn't.

Schobert has a great shot here.  In college, he was actually a 3-4 OLB.  Mike Pettine tried him there as a rookie---nevermind but Joe excels in coverage and is a brain who can call plays and has a nose for the ball.

He still misses too many tackles, but he's improved in that department.

Still, Wilson is coming on strong, and Sione Takitaki is a beast...

I haven't yet heard enough from Peter Smith, Jake Burns etc to figure out what Woods will come up with here...

Okbye.