Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Oddsmakers Don't Hate 2019 Browns. Business is Business. Deal with this

Some Nevada betting service predicts that the 2019 Browns won't make the playoffs.  Jim Rome (the anti-Cowherd) waxed eloquent in response, and it was fun to listen to.

But Jim missed a few adjectives, like "stupid", and "mentally impaired".

Jim was kind of emotional, as he asserted that this prediction is insulting not to just the team, but the fans, as well.  Frankly, it was pandering to the dumbest among us...can't complain, though.

I'm not insulted.  Vegas doesn't make personal judgements, and the betting services aren't actually predicting anything.

They make their money off the "juice" on both sides of a given bet.  In order to do that, they have to balance the amount of money bet on each side.

In the case of the Browns playoff bets, since the trades and signings, everybody is betting on the Browns to make the playoffs, so the sports books have to make the Browns less attractive, and encourage the stupid those who doubt them to bet their money against them.

It's serious money, people; might be billions.  Right now, I'm guessing the books are exposed at least 2:1 "for" the Browns making the playoffs, and everybody with a brain knows they probably will.

Nothing personal, folks.  Just the market seeking balance, like it does in the stock and commodity markets.  By now, it's probably a computer program setting these odds and lines.

Still, the idea that the 2019 Browns won't make the playoffs is Cowherdian (that is to say emotional, bizarre, and irrational).

I've stipulated that all 3 rivals probably regained lost ground on the Browns in the draft.  The AFC North could become the toughest Division in football again...

But why would you bet against the most talented team, with one of the top two (real) quarterbacks?

Spastic hysteria continues, as some dumber version of me speculated about John Dorsey's eagerness to trade assets to Tampa Bay for Gramps McCoy and his big cap hits.

Nick Dudukovich beat me to the punch in pointing out how utterly stupid and clueless that would be.

The Bucs probably have to release this 31 year old (because nobody else with a brain will trade for that contract), and Nick is right that Dorsey would have a chance to land this guy cheap, for 2 years max.

He's also right that among 31 other teams, somebody is libel to spazz and overpay him.  But Ndomikong Suh is out there, too, so...

Jake Burns did an eye-opening film study of third round linebacker Sione Takitaki.  This guy is better than I thought he was!

This guy has much better instincts than some scouting reports led me to believe.  Indeed, one of Jake's favorite words in this article was "sensed", as Takitake repeatedly reacted to things he couldn't see.

Much as I like Joe Schobert, I expect Dorsey to cash him in for a draft pick (or something) early, and I expect Christian Kirksey to be a GMF before 2020 as well.  Rodney Averyfield, Takitaki, and (maybe) Mack Wilson are the future here.

As I've mentioned, Dorsey has coverage covered (haha) with all the new DBs and linebackers (especially Mack Wilson), and Steve Wilks doesn't need Schobert's rare brains like Gregg Williams did either.

Gregg is now DC for the Jets, and might be asking the GM to trade for Schobert, as "Field Marshalls" are hard to find.

Kirksey's contract makes him untradeable.

"Afterthought" draft pick Offensive Lineman Drew Forbes turns out to be the "best kept secret" in this draft class.

He wasn't invited to the Combine.  He played at the lowest level of competition, and even here, scouts found fault with him (boiling down to a lack of physical strength, and of course his short arms.)

But Forbes is a genuine athlete, and with Hanz and Franz's help will get bigger and stronger.

Even here, John Dorsey may well have dug up another sleeper.

Are any of my previous posts sinking in yet?  The 2019 Browns will be a ZONE-blocking team, and Forbes is tailor made for those blocking schemes (at any position).

As I write this, I'm watching a replay of Baker Mayfield's 14 point comeback vs the Jets when he took over for the injured Tyrod Taylor.

It was night and day, wasn't it?

And Mayfield did this with Todd Haley calling his plays, Carlos Hyde as his running back...well just in general Baker had to overcome really bad coaching and a benched Chubb in addition to the 14 point deficit he inheritted.

Are you people aware that Colon Cowherd thought that firing Jackson and Haley was a bad move?  I now suspect that Colon's "puppet" theory in re Kitchens might have it's roots in Dorsey's trading Carlos Hyde away in order to force Mywayorthehighway Haley to use Nick Chubb...

My god can you GET any dumber than that!?!

As you guys know, I was calling Dorsey a genius for trading Carlos Hyde and forcing Haley to use his best running back.

I just watched the Browns beat the Jets again and unlock the Bud Lite (or whatever) coolers again.

That was the "baby" Baker Mayfield, but I couldn't find any mistakes anyway.  (Well ok he got stripped in his first series and Bitonio caught it on the bounce and rumbled for a first down anyway wow...I'm getting superstitious about this..."Mayfield effect", ya no?)

Baker Mayfield served notice to the NFL in that game that he was the real deal.

Sadly, Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were still in charge...

Actually I know how popular it is to blame everything on Hue Jackson, but Haley's control of the offense was written into his contract when Haslam hired him...

...Nevermind Hue was at least almost as bad.

But anyway those who doubt Freddie Kitchens after what he did after Todd Haley was fired...err...WHAT!?!

JEEZ how can you manage NOT to see that Freddie has a former Head Coach and a top Head Coach candidate on board now, and a freaking all-star coaching staff buttressing that?

The permabashers should all be dead by now, as their mental contortions snapped their spines...

Nevermind.  I have five dedicated followers, and know that they are all sentient.

So I got that goin for me...









1 comment:

WaitUntilNextYear said...

Hey! Who you calling sentient?!