Monday, April 29, 2019

Dorsey's 2019 Off-Season. We don't NEED NO STEENKING GRADES

More draft grades are rolling in.  Some of it is funny...in a sad way.  But some of the comments are informative, as some guys really like Redwine and Wilson more than others.

But really Mel Kiper was absolutely right: You can't judge this Browns' draft without listing OBJ as a first round pick.

Greedy Williams in the middle of the second round?  He's an elite talent.  Both of the Browns top picks will make major impacts in 2019.

But what about the other guys?

Well, I believe some of them are being sold short, starting with Sione Takitaki (a pending Doug Dieken favorite).

PFF was not impressed by Mack Wilson, but Takitaki's grades are pretty damn good in all phases, per them.  His workouts showed explosiveness and agility, too.

Sione may have been off some teams' draft boards for his idiotic off-the-field antics (arrests and suspensions) early in his college carreer, and this certainly made other GMs nervous.

For the more analytical types, his lack of a clearly defined position, and lack of "vetting" as a stand-up linebacker made him seem "iffy".

John Dorsey (and I...and Paul DePodesta) are the opposite:  Takitaki improved steadily during his time after the position switch,  and took over some games, capped off with 19 tackles in the Idaho Bowl.

As us former traders say, the trend is your friend, and for me it's always a no-brainer to scoop up an ascending player near the bottom of his growth curve.

Interestingly, niether PFF (to my knowlege) or Mel Kiper felt, as many did, that the third round was too high for Takitaki.

One bad amateur pundit thought Takitaki should play WIL so that his "weaknesses could be masked", but smarter people see him at any position, but especially SAM.

Comparisons between Genard Avery and Sione Takitaki aren't that far off the mark, as they're both very strong and aggressive.

Actually, Takitaki is a little taller, and was more consistent in coverage in college.  Avery is a little faster and stronger (weightlifting champ; 250 lbs).

But Sione Tatitaki and Genard Avery are similar enough to eachother that they will compete for the same roles in the Steve Wilks defense.

One of them will start, and both should play a lot.  Avery has the NFL experience, but Takitake the height and coverage skills--the Strong side linebacker has to cover tight ends sometimes.

Why do I say "one will start"?  Because these two are best suited to that particular role.

Next up is 4th round pick Miami Safety Sheldrick Redwine.  Like Sione Takitaki, Sheldrick switched positions (from Corner to Safety), so he didn't put as much "on tape" as other Safeties.

At 6', 195, he's also on the small side (for a Strong Safety). Also like Sione, Sheldrick played all over the place in Miami, and had no clearly defined role.

Dorsey keeps repeating this "play the game of football" phrase, and we're seeing what he means.  He nabs these real football players cheap, because most other GMs are worrying about whether or not they will fit perfectly.

We need to step back here, and re-examine Dorsey's previous 2019 back end additions:

Eric Murray is quite similar to Redwine;  a converted Cornerback who covers well.   Burnett is a solid Strong Safety (who played at Free Safety last season).

ALL these guys, including Damarius Randall, can play Cover 2 as well as Cover 3 or 1.  They can match up to a slot receiver, and Murray and Redwine cover off-man or zone outside.

Redwine is a big hitter, too.

In other words, ALL these "safeties" can play anywhere, and they're all at least above average vs the run.

Back to Redwine:  Damarius Randall's contract is up after 2019, and Redwine has the tools to potentially replace him at FS.

It is very possible that Randall and Dorsey can't find a middle ground, and Dorsey has to plan for painful losses like this.

Redwine does need some polishing, but isn't the project some people imply he is.  He will upgrade Special Teams for the moment, but will immediately challenge Murray for playing time (and a roster spot).

There's another Dorsey thing:  He throws too many dogs in the ring and just accepts that he will lose a few in the melee.

He drafted Donnie Lewis Jr (another Cornerback who could play Safety) in the 7th round.  Donnie is a small-school guy with NFL tools.  He has a shot, but my point is, Dorsey has once again deliberately overloaded a position (this time safety and linebacker).

I like this.  I would do this.  It gives me more confidence that Dorsey can sustain this team through the upcoming salary balloon-payments...but I digress:

Mack Wilson, graded low by PFF but right behind the Devins by Kiper and others at linebacker, didn't play much until his junior season (his last).  He has all the physical tools as well, but was a consensus nice value pick in the 5th round.

As my evil twin will attest, I'm a glass half full kinda guy, but I also understand John Dorsey's insideously diabolical sneakiness in proritizing psychology and potential in the lower rounds, and Kiper and several others have Dorsey's back on Wilson.

My evil twin would call this whole article "Koolaid-drinking", since it sounds so positive, but he can never find anything dumb or irrational; can't refute anything at all in any of my articles.

But I digress again: I'm sorry I gotta just skip the kicker, and disagree with Kiper that the 5th round was too high for him.  It's the FIFTH ROUND, and (as us Browns fans are acutely aware) kickers MATTER.

Drew Forbes is an athlete, and that matters most in 2019:

Not everybody has written Forbes off as an offensive tackle bases on his short arms.  

Look, I don't deny that reach is important in the trenches, but when you tell me that an inch or even two separate a tackle from a guard, that's getting silly.

Now: Forbes fits the Offensive Scheme the 2019 Browns will run.  It will be a predominantly zone-blocking scheme.

RPO's require zone blocking.  Zone-blocking blows up the defense's run-or-pass keys.

Long story short: Forbes has a great shot at at least making the Practice Squad, but also of making the final roster, or more:

(ahh, shaddap evil twin) Monken and Kitchens are cooking up (get it? "cooki--" ah shit nevermind) something NEW here.

These two mad scientists should concur that Nick Chubb, Duke, Hunt, and Rodney Hilliardfield are all great "one-cut" running backs well-suited to a zone-blocking scheme, and pass-catchers.

Most fans don't get any of this.  I distinctly remember when I lost my father:  I said "of course Ozzie (Newsome) isn't much of a blocker", and Dad disageed, and I had to explain it to him.

Oh! That reminds me! Why do so many of you people think that Deadeye Mayfield needs more skyscrapers?

Why do you hate Dameion Ratley and Derrick Willies so much that you felt that Dorsey needed to kick them to the curb?

Dumbasses.  Can't tell the difference between Baker Mayfield and Daunte Culpepper.  Can't factor in Njoku.  Gotta call Ratley a bust after one season, and dismiss Willies because he was undrafted.

Did you even watch how Baker Mayfield handled the Red Zone as a rookie in 2018?  He threw stick-passes to normal-sized guys!  

Shee!  Njoku was his bucket-pass guy from 30-plus yards out!  This is obvious to me...

But I digress again:

Here are a few predictions:

1: Christian Kirksey is a GMF this year or next.  I think THIS year.

2: Joe Schobert will be traded.  Soon.

3: Seth DeValve,  Duke (duh), and everybody else (except Garrett, Ogunjobi, Njoku, Tretter, etc he got "stuck with" chuh...) are on the block.

Joe Schobert's missed tackles mean more to the Browns than they do to us, and John Dorsey just drafted two linebackers and acquired three safeties who can cover as well as he did in a Wilks defense, and the two new guys are better vs the run, and well...

They "play the game of football" (damn Dorsey needs a press agent but I digress) okbye






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