I can't find much to write about today, so I checked out the CBSSports Draft Rankings to try to figure out which players might be available to John Dorsey after pick 42 or so (as you know he might make a move).
Bob Rang and company are pretty good at ranking these players, but of course the actual draft rarely works out according to these rankings.
The first variable is the Quarterbacks, who always get drafted higher than they should be. There could be as many as four drafted before pick 49.
Another variable is systems: 3-4 teams will want some different guys than 4-3 teams, West Coast offenses will prefer a different kind of wide receiver.
Another variable is need. The Browns, for example, need a micro-slot receiver or a guard or tight end like they need a hole in the head.
So every single year, a bunch of guys who rank in the top 32 end up well...sometimes as low as say...49 or lower.
In this draft, Dorsey can ignore all the wide receivers, interior offensive linemen, Quarterbacks, running backs, and probably tight ends.
Where I start: At the 32nd-ranked player. I'll guess that three Quarterbacks will get drafted before 49, so that makes it more like pick 46, right?
Then, at the very least two wide receivers will bring that to 44. The one stud TE makes that 43. I'm sure somebody will draft a guard or center: 42.
Excluding positions that are not priorities for the Browns (except in the bizarre imaginations of some people I'm glad I don't know), here we go (asterisks denote guys I've seen mocked to the Browns at 49):
35: S Nasir Adderly*
36: CB Deandre Baker
38: S Taylor Rapp*
40: S Chauncey Gardener (gotta be a tough guy...Chauncey? Thanks mom and dad!)
42: DT Dre'Mont Jones*
43: S Jonathan Abram*
45: OT Greg Little*
46: CB Rock Ya Sin*
47: CB Justin Layne*
49: S Juan Thornbill*
50: CB Justin Love*
53: DL Zach Allen*
I did leave out several Offensive Linemen I knew nothing about. I figure that if nobody talked them up, they weren't considered as good tackle prospects.
The only Offensive Tackle here is Greg Little. Somebody whose opinion I've learned to trust thinks Little could come in and challenge either incumbent starter immediately. His weakness is run-blocking--not pass protection.
CBS is in the minority on Taylor Rapp, who is the consensus-best safety in this draft. Thornbill and Abram are close. Adderly is another CBS disagreement with the consensus, but I know he's really good too.
As you see, there are five safeties here. That could mean that one or more of them could fall into the third round.
Like 4-3 linebackers and running backs, safeties tend to get drafted lower than other positions in general, and this is an unusually deep class. John Dorsey has safety covered for now with his free agents, and may exploit this.
While all these safeties are expected to start as rookies, there isn't much separation between them. The other GMs know this, too, so it's possible that all of these guys slide past 49!
This won't happen with the (four) cornerbacks.
See Mr. Lonely Dre'Mont Jones there? Well, Zach Allen is a DE/DT hybrid (6'4" 280+), and could be an instant rotational player anywhere except at nose tackle (according to some real scouts).
This whole thing looks like either a DT or a CB at 49.
And I'll tell you something else: a trade DOWN from 49 is as likely as a trade up.
John Dorsey sees the writing on the wall. Thanks to Sashi and Paul, he inheritted Garrett, Schobert, Ogunjobi, Njoku, and all those draft picks, and got to load up his roster all at once.
Screw the people who say "don't worry about" 2-3 years down the road. Dorsey's job is to build a DYNASTY, and not a take one big swing and then collapse and rebuild again.
He's way out over his skis here and knows it. He has to draft his team's future, because he's going to lose a bunch of his current stars three years from now. He's expended the ammo Sashi Brown left him, and built up a HUGE balloon payment.
A trade-down won't happen if Dorsey rates Dre'Mont Jones or one specific cornerback (or possibly Allen) too high to risk losing them, but consider this:
He will probably have room to trade down as far as he wants, and still grab one of those stud safeties, or else a third-tier DT who can rotate in as a rookie--and maybe still a tall man cornerback!
Seriously, you people: The stars have aligned for the Browns here in this draft class (ok well except for Offensive Tackle): DTs and safeties out the yinyang, nice DE and Cornerback depth (lots of TALL corners)...
You people don't see the big picture. That might be a generational thing; a compulsion for immediate gratifification because you've been spoiled by Amazon and stuff.
When I was a kid, I had to walk 3 miles to school barefoot through six feet of snow, uphill both ways but I digress:
Antonio Callaway is here to replace OBJ when Dorsey can't afford him anymore. Genard Avery will replace Kirksey, and Hilliard will replace Duke.
Objectively, the Patriots and Steelers have been the models which other teams have sought to emulate (ie "dynasties"; perennial contenders).
More recently, the Rams and Colts are coming on strong; the Colts looking a little better long-term (because the Rams will have to blow 15-20% of it's cap on Goff shortly).
But I redigress: Draft picks good. Free agents (except for one year depth-bandaids) bad DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Trade-ups bad. Trade-downs good.
THINK with your BRAIN: As it stands, all the real experts on this planet now consider the 2019 Browns favorites to win the AFC North outright, and as strong Superbowl contenders.
PFF et al can't find any needs at all on this team. So why do you think Dorsey will blow draft picks to trade UP?
Stay with me here! Heading into this draft, the smart people say the 2019 Browns have top five talent and respect Kitchens and his staff AS IS.
Still with me -snap-snap-?
Given the list of potential draft picks I cited earlier at 49, and the position-depths I cited, why the hell would Dorsey trade UP (except a few slots for Simmons)!?!
You...comprehend that there are more than 22 guys on NFL rosters, right? Well, can you comprehend that young players tend to improve over time?
Probably not, because you're memorex morons (
Anyway, get the stars out of your eyes and THINK:
AS IS, the Browns have (at least) a top five Quarterback and (oh by the way) top five talented TEAM headed into the draft.
You still don't get this, probably. You think Dorsey can't help trading up (and inexplicably don't remember his trade-downs).
Really, you people are generally smart, and have common sense, so you should get this:
John Dorsey will trade down in this draft--even if he trades up (a little) from 49th. AND he is more likely than not to trade down from 49 in THIS draft class!
In fairness, you guys aren't Browns OCD sufferers, or Intelligence Analysts like me, so I can't pick on you much.
But trust me: The ONE thing John Dorsey will NOT do is trade into the first round. Don't you see how idiotic that would be?
Jeez I thought I sucked at math!
I hereby predict that John Dorsey will either draft a cornerback or DT at 49 or trade down (and then draft a cornerback or safety).
I hope Dorsey trades down.
...okbye
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