Sunday, April 14, 2019

2019 Browns Taken Seriously. Except By Cowherd...Who MEANS IT

From behind enema lines, Steeler writer Bob Labriola wrote a terrific article in which he questions the Browns' annointment as the favorites to win the AFC North.

Bob and I could probably debate this (over beers) for hours, because he is objective.  He considered all the factors fairly.

I couldn't really find much wrong with his analyses; in fact have written much of the same stuff myself.

But I can pick on Bob a little:

1: For all the games since Freddie Kitchens (the liberator) took over, Baker Mayfield outperformed Big Ben (with a 108+ QBR).

2: The Steelers did have the best passrush last season, pre-Vernon and Wilkinson, and while Avery and Chad Thomas were rookies.  This will probably change in 2019.

3: The Steelers DO still have the best offensive line, and that's vital, but:

The Browns will have the better Wide Receivers, defensive line, and probably secondary.

Leaving Bob Labriola, I need to re-address this "sophomore slump"/defenses figuring out quarterbacks stuff in re Baker Mayfield in more detail:

Defensive coordinators look for situations in which quarterbacks look bad.  Now, with the help of people like PFF and Numberfire, they can read that data on EVERY snap the quarterback has played, so they can see stuff like:

How he does running left, vs right.
How accurate he is on crossing, vs vertical routes.
Does he hold the ball? Can he be confused?
Does he lose accuracy and strength in motion?  Does he have to have his feet set?
Can he deliver DEEP?
To the sidelines (on a rope)?

Most young quarterbacks have expoitable weaknesses that show up in PFF's intricate numbers and on tape.

Baker Mayfield does not.  That's not "fandom".  It's a confirmed fact.

His shorter stature actually helps him, as he has better balance and takes shorter steps than the taller guys; he can bend and twist to execute powerful and accurate throws running to his left.

Wilson and Brees are shorter. Rodgers and Mahomes are less than an inch taller. See how that works?  Of course, most of it is psychological and mental.

Elliot Kennel thinks the Browns are the most talented team in the NFL, and if you are laughing, slap yourself out of it.

I include the link out of respect to Elliott, but you won't find much that I haven't already told you here.  But Kennel digs deeper and cites sources; he's more organized and thorough than I am.

That's why we now know that NINE current Browns have been Pro Bowlers.  N I N E IX 9.  And NONE of these nine is past his prime.

And in listing all the studs on this roster, Elliott left out Njoku.

That might be a meaningful omisson (got u, Elliott):

After initially dropping passes and stuff as a rookie (and early in his second season), David Njoku became a "money" receiver as soon as Baker Mayfield took over for Tyrod Taylor.

In fairness to Tyrod, David dropped some perfect passes from him.  But something about Baker Mayfield just...made Njoku more reliable.  I understand this intuitively, but don't have the words to write about it yet.

...anyway, John Dorsey "called" Njoku "out" in public for his mediocre pass-blocking, and Njoku replied "Challenge accepted"

As I have posted,  Freddie Kitchens ran two (and sometimes three)-tight end offenses in 2018.

These personnel packages were important in neutralizing edge-rushers (and making Hubbard/Robinson look better in pass protection than they were).

Njoku excelled in run blocking, but screwed up too often in pass protection.

This is common for the new breed of tight ends who are really supersized Wide Receivers.

When "in-line", when a pass is called, they are expected to "chip block" a DE or OLB towards the Tackle, then go out for a pass.

These tight ends don't pay nearly as much attention to opposing edge-rushers as they do to the guys who will be trying to cover them as they do their film-study homework.

They also tend to think that giving an edge-rusher a "shove" before going out for a pass is good enough.  They don't pay enough attention.

If the edge guy stunts inside, they don't look for the safety or corner coming from the outside.  Sometimes, their "chip" blocks barely effect the edge-rusher at all, and they go into a pattern leaving the Offensive Tackle beaten.

Per PFF, Njoku was a good run-blocker but a bad pass protector in 2018.  I have almost zero doubt that (thanks to Dorsey's public critique), David Njoku will be a REAL Tight End in 2019.

Most of you don't get this yet:

OBJ is here now, along with Landry.  Then there's Callaway.  Monken/Kitchens will want all 3 on the field as often as possible (with Njoku, of course duh).

Well, that's a spread offense.

David Njoku will NEED to swallow his pride and protect his quarterback as he targets other guys.  John Dorsey just made damn sure he WILL.

Elliot Kimmel is brilliant, but not perfect.

David Njoku (as a REAL Tight End, as well as a supersized wide receiver) will be critical in 2019.

I'll get more into that later, if I live that long. 










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