Friday, April 12, 2019

Day 3 Sleeper, Bad Analysis, Dumb Articles, Dorsey, and the Browns

The guys on PFF Radio really like this draftable linebacker: Te'Von Coney (Notre Dame).

Seems counter-intuitive for "analytics guys" to like a guy with sub-optimal size, speed, and explosiveness much, but here's why they do:

Coney was the surest tackler (by far) in this draft, at any position.

This isn't my first Coney reference, as I posted about him a couple months ago, and compared him (mentally) to Joe Schobert.  He plays with discipline, and rarely makes a mistake.  And now I know, if he gets two hands on you, you are probably going down.

As the pretty good linked scouting report says, the Devins and a couple other linebackers outclass Coney physically, and you don't want him man covering anybody, but he DOES stuff the run, and (again because he's so smart) does well in zone coverage (as he anticipates breaks and reads the quarterback as well as any free safety).

Steve Wilks could make good use of this guy, and from day one.  The PFF guys felt he would be worth a second or third round pick, but kinda expect him to go in the fourth round or lower...where Dorsey will be waiting with his basket.

To be clear, he's probably a situational and depth player here, as he's mainly a middle or inside linebacker, and that's Schobert's thing.

Randy Gurzi says that certain PFF writers are lukewarm on the Mayfield/Beckham combo.

Randy doesn't get it either.  They talk about a higher average depth-of-target, but Mayfield was way up there in that category in 2018, and Monken won't change that.  Nor is Beckham a one-trick pony; nor will he dominate the targets.

Some PFF writers, as I've said, are writers first, and not real analysts.  They cherrypick stats and data to support their pre-determined premises, which are based on hunches and "feelings".

This guy has a hunch that Mayfield will lose ground in 2019, because most second year quarterbacks do.

But he is using season-long 2018 stats; not even separating the Haley offense from the Kitchens' offense.  This guy works for PFF, and is using season-long grades to rank and anticipate Mayfield 2.0.  

That's just plain incompetent.  As Randy notes, much of what this guy said was vague and subjective ("just cuz").

More competant analysts at PFF understand that Baker Mayfield is not a guy defenses can "figure out" and stifle by watching films.

Hell, that's why they agreed with Dorsey that he was the best QB in the 2018 class!  He had no discernable weaknesses!

AND they make sure to separate Mayfield/Haley from Mayfield/Kitchens.

But the OBJ downgrade was just inexplicable:

As a competent PFF writer noted, Baker Mayfield is a more accurate (and persistant) deep thrower (measured by "yards per-attempt" and completion percentages at various ranges) than Eli Manning.

OBJ is now THE Browns' deep threat, so why would HE decline with Mayfield in a Monken/Kitchens offense!?!

You might suspect that this really bad analyst might have accidentally been right about OBJ's step back but no:

In addition to Sterling Shephard, Eli also threw a lot to Saquon Barkley and Engram.  

Because Eli's offensive line was weak in pass protection, Shurmer used OBJ as a deep decoy a lot and hit these other guys underneath a lot to get the ball out of his hands.

Barkley, Engram, and Shephard are no slouches.  The Browns offensive line and quarterback are better, and OBJ will NOT be a decoy when he goes deep!

Jake Burns lists a bunch of Offensive Tackles who should be there in rounds 2 and 3.  Meh.

Dan Justik lists three Dorsey draft-day trades; two up and one down.  He got Chris Jones, Kareem Hunt, and Patrick Mahomes.

'Nuff said?

Randy Randy Randy! Gurzi wrote an article listing 3 players that might be worth a trade-up...and all three probably go in the first round!!!

He even talks about one guy going in the late TEENS! 

So sad.  I think if Dorsey had ever traded away most of a draft to move up 20 slots, Justik would have found it.  Why is Gurzi wasting time with this?

I'm depressed now.  Okbye.




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