Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Browns Draft Stuff, Idiotic Mocks/Punditry, John Dorsey, Common Sense

Here comes the draft!  Randy Gurzi lists three players who may be available at pick 49 who (he believes) could start immediately.

Randy has this "three" format, and could have listed six or ten---but we'll check out his three:

His third option is OT Gregg Little.  Little is a falling star in this draft, as he showed up at the combine out of shape, and performed poorly.  Also, despite having good size, he wasn't a strong run-blocker.

I can comment on that:  Per PFF, all three of the free agent offensive linemen Dorsey recently signed were well above average in pass protection and below average as run-blockers.

Further, a very smart pro I cited awhile ago said that the most common mistake GMs make in evaluating Offensive Linemen is overvaluing run-blocking (and obviously John Dorsey concurs).

Gurzi likens the Little combine performance to Orlando Brown Jr's in 2018, and insists that Greg Little's films trump his poor combine.

Unlike Brown, Randy feels that Little can play Left Tackle in the NFL; that he is a legit first round talent.

Next is...oh God...Amani Oruwariye (whew); a cornerback Doug Dieken hopes the Browns won't draft.  He's similar to homie Justin Layne, and has the length that none of the current Browns corners possess.

This guy Oruwariye is also over 205 lbs, and excels vs the run--it sounds like in addition to playing man on the outside, he's a good off-man and zone guy too.

Randy's favorite is the consensus top Strong Safety, Taylor Rapp.  

Former Stooler Morgan Burnett is the nominal starter there, but Rapp is expected to start immediately for whoever drafts him, and frankly sounds eerily similar to one Troy Polumalu.  Nuff said?

Gurzi again: This time it's three injured players who would be worth 49th overall:

He starts with EDGE Porter Gustin, who is too small for DE and has been injured for much of his college carreer.  Randy points out his amazing production (when healthy) in 2018.

Randy sees him as a potential SAM and a rotational edge-rusher...but I see him as redundant with Avery (sorta...at best...in Uropia).

OT Yodny Cajuste was generally projected as a first round pick until he tore his quad preparing for the combine.

Cajuste is an excellent pass blocker, but *not a great run-blocker*, and has an injury history predating his quad...well, at least according to these pundits.  (Often this is garbage: a guy has two injuries in three years--not ligaments, tendons, or joints--and he gets this label).

DT Jeffery Simmons is of course Randy's top pick.  And that goes without saying.

People talk about Simmons possibly playing late in his rookie season, but really this would be a pick for 2020.  And I'd set a record running that card up.

Joe Thomas expresses a few opinions on Myles Garrett in his Film Room with Andrew Gribble.  I paid special attention to this episode, because I figured this future HOF Left Tackle had some unique insights into a guy he practiced against (and coached) 

A few things Joe said:

1: There is a strength measuring device in the Browns' facility on which Big Joe owned the record (1800 lbs, with the second-best being 1200).  It measures lower body strength.

Joe says Garrett didn't beat him, but he came very close.  Thomas went on to say that Garrett's lower body strength explains his explosiveness.

2: Joe says a false start or two is the "cost of doing business" for a passrusher who can screw up an offense.

3: Garrett is very smart, and Joe says he'll be "reading the codes" of opposing play-calls and will know the snap-count after a few downs in each game.

*I think Joe generalized too much here: The snap-count is not always part of the Quarterback's calls*.

4: Joe says that on one practice play, he saw Garrett overtake a running back 30 yards downfield (from a backside passrush).

The "hustle" was naturally cited by the Coaches as a great example, but Thomas said that he's never seen a Defensive Lineman run that fast.

He said Garrett's strides got longer, and he was running as fast as a cornerback.  He was amazed by Garrett's "second gear".

5: Joe showed one play on which Garrett beat Villanueva to sack Big Ben.  Garrett got extremely low (with his hand on the ground twice to keep his balance) as he "snuck under" the Tackle's effort to ride him around behind the QB as he stepped forward in the pocket.

Joe says the Left Tackle did a great job, but "when all you got to push against is his back, there's nothing you can do"

Joe didn't say this, but I will: Lots of Edge-rushers can "bend" like this, but they aren't around 280 rocked-up, fat-free lbs.  Big Joe or Villanueva would have face-planted Von Miller or the majority of other guys, but Garrett is as strong as the OT's.

The additions of Vernon and Richardson, combined with Garrett's (and Ogunjobi's) natural evolution as players, will present at LEAST a top four Defensive Line (and passrush).

But depth remains an issue.  The whole Defensive Line wore down last year as the starters played too many downs.  They fizzled both late in individual games, and in the season.

On the edge, the combination of Genard Avery and Chris Smith might help a lot, and in this draft class, Dorsey should land a third DT who can help.

The pundits who think Dorsey should draft Wide Receivers are fulla wrong, in my opinion.

Outside the Labels and Blockhead boxes, Njoku and DeValve are really oversized Wide Receivers, and Ratley and Willies haven't shrunk as far as I know either.

And how many wide receivers can you keep on a roster, Sherlock?  

Dorsey just signed this Sheehy-Guiseppi microbe, unmistakably as a kick returner---and he'll probably make it (as a wide receiver).

Idiots.

Ratley should be coming back at over 200 lbs and physically outclasses most of the guys these cretins think should kick him to the curb!

Willies might have just got lucky in 2018, but deserves a chance.

Now, 1 OBJ 2 Landry 3 Callaway 4 Higgins.  I just mentioned 5 Ratley 6 Willies 7 Guiseppi.

And (sorry to redundate here), but great Quarterbacks don't NEED big targets, and Mayfield is right there with Warner Brees Rodgers Wilson Goff Sipe Marino Montana etc.

What thee hayull makes these cretins think that Baker Mayfield needs (more) guys with huge catch radii? OR that Ratley is a bust already!?!  6'2+", 4.36.  Jeez...

For sure, John Dorsey needs to get frugal and lean into the draft right now if he wants to avoid a collapse about 3 years from now.

...that's why it's even MORE idiotic to expect Dorsey to trade up repeatedly, and blow all his lower picks.

With Randy Gurzi's help, I just discussed six options at 49th overall, and there are a bunch more "real football players" who should be there.

Hell, John Dorsey might trade DOWN six slots if he has six players ranked equally!

Check PFF: The 2019 Browns don't have any "needs" on this planet.  They need depth and "projects" who can become studs in time.

At this point, a trade-down from 49 is about as likely as a trade-up (*trading into the first round is too idiotic to consider, but moving up a few slots for a Simmons or a Rapp is possible).

It feels like a trade-down to me.  There's a ton of talent at DT, OT (I was wrong about that), Safety, and EDGE in this draft, with cornerbacks right behind that.

John Dorsey bats around .350 in rounds 4 through 7 (I think).  Specs aside, he's way above average.

Callaway was a 4th round pick, and Avery a 5th.  

John Dorsey is acutely aware that he's got a huge balloon-payment on the horizon, and that he needs to DRAFT the future of this team, so trading DOWN is likely, and trading UP (much) is IDIOTIC.

Does anybody else GET this?  Trading most of his picks to get into the first round not only flushes the rest of his picks, but obligates him to another massive singular salary on the heels of Garrett/Mayfield/Ogunjobi/Schobert/Njoku/MAYFIELD/Chubb oh thass jusss brillyunndd!!!

Anyway, here on Earth, John Dorsey should land at least two significant 2019 contributors in this draft, and 2-4 more backups with starter potential.

I'm sorry.  I can't let this go: Trading back into the first round is so idiotic that I can't believe anybody with a human brain (including Corky) could consider it.

I'm so glad I will die soon.  I am witnessing "Idiocracy" coming to pass.  I'm bummed that you are allowed to vote.  I wish you could THINK.

But I digress okbye




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