Dan Justik has to be right about John Dorsey wanting Jeffery Simmons bad, but not about his trading up eighteen or more slots to go get him. Wow I'm getting tired of this kneejerk insanity!
It's silliness: I remember when Chicago made a dumbass trade to grab one-year starter Mitch Trubisky first overall, and Bill Polian (who hates analytics and that Browns' front office) bashed them for "letting everybody know" they wanted Trubisky.
Same crap! It wasn't the BROWNS who were floating those rumors, but guys like me (and the other guys who steal our intellectual property without attribution and call us "sources"!)
No really Dorsey will be looking for ways to get himself some more draft picks, instead of trading most of the ones he has left away.
Again, if Jeffery Simmons falls to 43rd or so, the cost of moving up could come to Duke Johnson and one of the fifth rounders (he will be using the Dukester as a bargaining chip. And Kirksey and DeValve and some other guys too).
It's not that unlikely that Simmons could come into range, but he'd have to get past Lord Insideous, among others. Those teams at the bottom of the first round were last season's elites, and several are in good shape to "redshirt" the player for at least most of his first season. Belichick in particular would not hesitate.
It's more likely that Simmons will be gone before Dorsey can rationally make a non-ruinous move up for him.
Sans Simmons, in my last post I listed a whole bunch of really good players who could get to pick 49 and beyond.
Naturally, John Dorsey (he was sincere about this) tries to ignore all the noise from guys like Justik and me as he and his staff do their own analyses and internal mocks.
As we saw last season, he bucked the trend in drafting the "short, immature, undraftable" Baker Mayfield, and Ward over Bradley Chubb...so I have no idea whatsoever how John will classify and rank these players.
But I can try:
Per the consensus of legitimate experts, in the range of the 49th overall pick, all the elite guys will be gone, and there will be a bunch of just "really good" players, with no standouts.
Safety Taylor Rapp could be one exception, or any linebacker named Devin, but who knows?
Anyway, if John Dorsey agrees with the majority that a bunch of these players are similar in talent, he will absolutely try to trade down.
Former Jets GM Pat Kirwan explained this succinctly: "If you have three players you think are about equal, you can move down three slots, because you will get something in the trade, and still get one of the best available players on your board".
Seems obvious, right?
Well in this case, at 49th in 2019, there might be TEN players that Dorsey is willing to "settle for", and he can listen to offers from ten teams behind him.
As I mentioned, he has Duke and several other veterans "on the table", and we know Trader John doesn't mind getting "exotic".
Naturally, one or more of those ten teams have to want to move up too. In this scenario, they'd be trying to land the last available Quarterback (or possibly a Left Tackle or Wide Receiver).
Let's see if I can mock up a trade here:
...crap I got nothing. None of those teams have any motivation whatsoever to trade up.
Dammit. Ok so I can predict that Dorsey will just draft the best available player at 49...or not.
As I mentioned in my last post, Safety is no longer a priority for the Browns, and there are a whole bunch of really good ones in this class. Dorsey may well be able to lean toward another position at 49th, and still catch a starting SS in the third round.
...unless, of course, John disagrees with the consensus and feels that Taylor Rapp (or somebody else) is head and shoulders better than the other guys...
I just reviewed Rapp's sheet (get it? It was a joke...nevermind) and don't find him exceptional at all, and he's a bad fit for Steve Wilks because he lacks the instincts to play zone.
Sorry I'm just guessing like everybody else here. Still, I think Dorsey is slightly more likely to draft one of the tall press/man corners at 49 than anybody else, (unless home boy DT Dre'Mont Jones is there.) Definitely maybe. I think. And you can take that to da bank!
Ok fine, but after that, all bets are off and Dorsey is "Trader John" again!
I'm in the weeds again here, but what the hell my wild guesses are as entertaining as anybody else's right?
In the real world, John Dorsey needs to turn some of his veterans into draft picks or younger/cheaper veterans.
So he's trying to package these guys (notably Duke) into Draft Day trades.
This is where Dorsey can make some moves, up or down. With all due respect to Mr Kimmel, Duke Johnson's contract is quite reasonable for his value to a trade partner. He's actually a bargain for a swiss army knife who averages around 4.5 ypc from scrimmage!
But I digress again: On this planet, everybody wants Duke Johnson. WTF 3 mil or so is too much for over a thousand yards from scrimmage and his wide receiver (not just slot) skills...his pass-protection and ability to run INSIDE give me a break with the Duke-bashing okay?
My God I've heard "sixth round pick at best" from one clueless geek, and here comes Kimmel acting like...dee-dee-dee-dee (Twilight Zone theme) for cryin out loud he's in his prime, he's C H E A P (and under contract) for what he does...
Anyway, the other GMs and coaches are giving Duke Johnson more credit than the punditry is. When the rubber meets the road, John Dorsey should make the most of Duke on Draft day.
He might get a low third or high fourth round pick, or he might use Duke to move up 20 or more slots from his third round pick, or facilitate some fancy trade...
Again, Christian Kirksey's value is emotionally inflated among Browns fans. I love the guy too, but he's below average as a player. Screw the "leadership" crap: he's a backup drawing a starter's salary, and John Dorsey (and DePodesta, of course), hope that somebody will be dumb enough to give them something to take his inflated salary off the Browns' books.
Sorry to redundate yet again, but since nobody gets it (*it takes time for the assholes to mine my posts and steal my analyses*), I have to repeat myself:
4-3, 3-4 is bullshit. Every defense in the NFL runs a nickel or dime defense 67% of the time in today's NFL, and in case you can't translate that, it means five or more "defensive backs".
You people rely on boxes and labels, so you keep thinking that there are supposed to be three certified linebackers here, and that each of these needs to weigh 240+ lbs, be a run-stuffer and...
On this planet, and with this talent, the 67+% Wilks defense is a 4-man Defensive Line...err...kinda-sorta.
Anyway the 2019 Browns do NOT need (official/in the box) linebackers.
1: Joe Schobert needs to stop blowing tackles, but is one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL.
2: Genard Avery is quicker and faster than Schobert, and can cover (especially in zone).
Obviously, Avery is first and formost a passrusher, but those who dismiss him as only that are STUPID.
Avery is as agile and fast as many Strong Safeties, and his intelligence/instincts haven't been questioned (except periphally/inevitably)
Jeez you people! I just (again) explained to you that Schobert and Avery have linebacker covered in the Wilks 2019 Browns offense.
Why TF are you listing linebacker as a priority?
How DUMB you are! How clueless (or more accurately impervious to clues) jeez...
(Sigh) sorry but I need to redundate that Genard Avery is a LINEBACKER, and was a LINEBACKER in college.
You people...he doesn't "man up" well with guys that are 4+ inches taller than he is, but...get a grip!
James Harrison scraped by with the Steelers somehow, despite being slower and less athletic.
3-4 spare me. Avery fits a 4-3 MUCH better than Harrison could. I only conpare the two players to point out how effective Harrison was in coverage.
Genard Avery in a 4-3 can do what Harrison did, and a lot MORE.
John Dorsey may well draft a linebacker, but only as a best-available player, and on day 3. His linebackers are adequate for the moment, and he is not (as far as I know) taking LSD or otherwise hallucinating.
And by the way, John probably doesn't want to kick Dameion Ratley or Derrick Willies to the curb as bad as a bunch of pundits do either.
Whole new can of worms Baker Mayfield needs crutches? Njoku doesn't count? JFC WTF!?!
How utterly clueless/oblivious these pundits are!
Ah skip it okbye
THIS JUST IN: Jets Linebacker Darron Lee sounds like a great addition to me. The Jets lack leverage, and Lee might come cheap (in salary as well as in trade).
The Jets just signed Ebineezer Bell, too. Duke Johnson would be his ideal backup, as well as useful in the slot.
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