Everybody is atwitter about the Browns schedule. Doug Lesmerisis makes a strong case for 12-4 (and is serious!)
It's just awesome that the Browns get their bye ahead of the Pats game, while the Pats will be coming off a monday nighter...it's like the schedule-makers are bending over backwards to give the Browns a chance.
Wierd, huh? You hearing the Twilight Zone theme too?
Doug predicts a win in that one, by the way.
Perhaps superstitiously, Doug thinks the Steelers (or possibly Ravens) will get lucky...maybe.
But the schedule does look pretty good, with several weak or washed up opponents.
There are all sorts of ways to analyze each game, but maybe the simplest is QB vs QB:
Do you think Sam Darnold will be ready to "carry" his less-talented team to a win over Mayfield? (PS do you think Ebineezer Bell will be as good behind the Jets OLine as he was behind the Steelers?)
Do you think Tom Brady will punk the upstart? PS no Gronk by the way. Also no true X-receiver. Also no mobility...
...ok I don't dare stick my neck out predicting a Brady clunker, but our whippersnapper will give as good as he gits.
Ditto Big Ben. Sans AB, he may have to hold the ball more often. Brown got open immediately all the time, and that's rare. His loss wasn't huge, or anything, but it could get him sacked vs this particular front four, ya no?
Mayfield vs Goff: a classic, no?
Mayfield vs Kyler Murray (if Arizona indeed drafts the kid and trades Rosen) wow! Mayfield kept Murray on the bench til 2018. They're pals, and Baker supports Murray all he can.
Not a fair fight though. Baker has a year under his belt and a much better team around him.
Mayfield vs Wilson: Doug predicts a Wilson win in this one, but I don't. The Seahawks are bleeding talent, and Wilson's massive new contract will help that along quite nicely.
They do draft as well as anybody in the NFL, though-digging up Pro Bowlers on day 3; Wilson himself was a third round pick, meant to be a backup---but I digress:
Wilson is great but the Browns are now better overall.
Unit matchups are more fun (ie my front 7 vs your OLine and TE's, or your receivers vs my coverage guys).
Vs every team on this schedule, the Browns are never overmatched, including by the Rams.
Who has a better defensive line? Who has better wide receivers or running backs? Can you find five better offensive lines?
It gets muddy, though: Joe Schobert is a front 7 guy, but excels in coverage. Many safeties are like linebackers vs the run. This is where the PFF and Numberfire guys have trouble evaluating some players and units.
"Football guys" still have a better handle on a lot of this stuff than Analytics guys.
Recent PFF articles say that the Browns have no needs. How validating!
But I'm a little shocked by that, because Chris Kirksey sucks per their numbers.
Possibly it's the league-wide dominance of the nickel defense (67% of defensive snaps). Analytics geeks ignore bullcrap, and in the Browns' case assume a 4-2-5 nickel and 4-1-6 dime with Schobert in all of them, and Avery in most of them.
I have mentioned that the recently signed linebacker Adarius Taylor strongly resembles Kirksey as a linebacker, excels on special teams, and is wayyy cheaper...so...
In the draft, I now think that DTs, Secondary players, and yes: Offensive Tackles are desirable for depth and the future.
John Dorsey inheritted a ton of money and draft picks from DePodesta and Brown, along with (pay attention, Lesmeresis) a solid core of talent.
He also inheritted DePodesta's plan, and executed it. He's going for all the marbles right TF NOW.
He's got 2 years, and a great chance. But then the rookie contracts run out.
Dorsey is mostly done with free agency, except for one-year cheap rentals. He intends to preserve his draft picks, and use them.
He HAS to.
Obviously, he would be an IDIOT to trade most of his draft to trade all the way up into the first round when he has no pressing needs.
...crap I give up. Nobody gets this. Why can't you understand this? You're allowed to vote, right?
Kill me.
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