Bill Barnwell of ESPN is a funny guy: He estimates the under/over on 2019 Browns wins at 7.5.
Thomas Moore offers a much more diplomatic response to this prediction than I would have.
Tom forgot about the Saints game, which first went to overtime, and then was lost, on missed kicks.
He also forgot to point out that Baker Mayfield 2.0 will be even better than the rookie version, and the new/improved offense will be rolling out of the gate, obviously.
Seriously, Barnwell needs some deprogramming.
Joe Gilbert grades the Browns 2018 edge-rushers. As usual, it's a good analysis, but I need to differ with Joe on a few points:
1: Wilks is not Gregg Williams, and may use some of these players differently than Gregg did. In Carolina, Wilks tended to blitze more than Williams, and several smart people have pointed out that Ogbah played inside about as often as he played outside.
2: Genard Avery is a real linebacker, with linebacker athleticism and range. He will be chasing a starting OLB role. Joe wants to keep him off the field until third and long.
Joe gets a B- for this article.
The Clemson Tigers had an amazing defensive line, and have TWO defensive tackles of interest to the Cleveland Browns.
Christian Wilkins. Is CBS Sports 5th-ranked DT at this point, and his partner Dexter Lawrence is their 7th.
Wilkins is "too short" like Aaron Donald...and otherwise looks exactly like Aaron Donald. Lawrence is a big powerful nose tackle with some genuine athleticism to him.
Nick Dudakovich . lists ten free agents he feels John Dorsey should pursue this offseason.
Zadarius Smith sounds smart to me. He would return to defensive end (from backup/situational linebacker) in the Browns' defense, would hurt the Ravens, and not cost too much.
DT Sheldon Richardson check. He's a very solid 3-down starter.
I like linebacker Anthony Barr too, but Nick also insults Genard Avery as a linebacker...I don't understand where this is coming from. But Barr is a good player.
Nick also says the Browns need to upgrade "just about everything"...this is bizarre.
Cornerback Steven Nelson makes sense too.
Shaq Barrett is a good player, but Avery is better, and Nick? Avery can cover! (Honestly, is all this garbage just because he was drafted in the 5th round? I mean wow.)
Ryan Fitzpatrick would be cool, but I still like McCoy, Bridgewater, or Bortles better...I think.
Kicker Josh Lambo? HAYULL Yeah!!!
Nick tops off his list with Browns free agents Greg Robinson and Breshad Perriman...yep!
All this Avery-bashing is already "old", but it's just the echo-chamber. In 2 weeks or 2 months, Wilks will talk about Avery as a probable starter, and Joe, Nick etc will have to figure out why.
Anyway, this was 90% a great article! I mean, Dudakovich skipped all the obvious guys, and the guys who are unlikely to make it to free agency.
In every case, Nick analyzed market, need, and each team's cap situation. I really like this guy!
...but back to this Genard Avery necktie party:
Here are Avery's measurables: See that 40, 20 yard shuttle, and 3-cone? Those are first-class real linebacker numbers! He is quicker and faster than a lot of safeties.
"Inconsistent" in coverage (I mean in his pre-draft scouting reports)?
Well, he was listed as an inside linebacker, but he actually moved all over the place in college, and attacked more often than not from wherever he was.
He dropped into coverage sometimes, but you people don't generally understand what that means:
He backed off into a zone off the snap, and looked around for somebody to cover or blow up.
That's simplified, of course, but it's the gist of his "coverage" in college, and what the majority of NFL linebackers do in coverage.
In college, Avery got interceptions, forced fumbles, and breakups, due to his reactions and speed, but sometimes he got into footraces with little speed demons, so he got burned too.
Are you getting any of this? Any at all?
He's also 6'1", like James Harrison was, so skyscrapers burned him vertically, like they did Harrison.
And Avery was a R O O K I E DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
Avery is quicker and faster than Jamie Collins, and Christian Kirksey aint in his zip-code.
Why on freaking EARTH are all these otherwise sentient beings declaring Avery a passrushing specialist who can't play linebacker?
Sorry 'bout that, but I have zero tolerance for dumbassitude, and it hits critical mass when I'm outnumbered. This is where I prove I'm smarter than the other guys: PAY ATTENTION. I SAY THIS STUFF FIRST.
Just a note here on the salary cap:
1: It's linked to inflation. Players and agents make damn sure of it.
2: Teams with lots of young talent can't blow all that money:
They theoretically can stretch Mayfield's contract through it's 5th year, but nobody does that with a superstar. Like with Russell Wilson, smart teams avoid Kirk Cousins situations by renegotiating and extending them early...ahead of general inflation and the leverage the player's performance will add...
Does anybody get that? In a nutshell, barring injury (or arrest/imprisonment or whatever), Dorsey will want to get Mayfield locked up long-term ahead of his fourth season.
This is "Business Analytics", as Paul Depodesta would tell you:
Mayfield is concerned about injuries, likes it here, and is presumably willing to lock up lots of guaranteed money to make over twice as much as he would in riding out the final two years of his rookie contract.
Dorsey gets ahead of inflation, nails down his quarterback for five or so years...
Nevermind I'll get into free enterprise, trade, and other burgoise capitalist stuff in later posts, if they don't silence me first.
...okbye
Thursday, January 31, 2019
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Browns Free Agent Options, Burns Burning Me, Ogunjobi, Schemes
Matthew McFatridge suggests some free agent quarterbacks for John Dorsey to nab this offseason, and I really like all three:
Former Brown Colt McCoy, Teddy Bridgewater, and Blake Bortles.
All three have some warts on them, of course. Of the three, I like Bridgewater best, but expect him to be hard to "bring down".
Unlike the other two guys, Teddy was a top-notch (Pro Bowl) starting quarterback prior to his horrific injury, but now seems to have recovered.
He surely still considers himself a starter, and so should more than one quarterback-starved team (including Bortles' Jagwires) in this crappy quarterback draft year.
Matt makes the mistake everybody else does in talking about "mentoring" Baker Mayfield, as if he's Sam Darnold or something. But sure, any of these guys could offer him some tips based on what they see from the sidelines.
Conor Dorney names five veteran free agents at other positions:
Former Browns cornerback Pierre Desir would be nice to have, because none of the other guys has his "length". Desir was never less than average, and has grown into a very solid all-around cornerback.
We're not talking about replacing Terrence Mitchell as the starter here, though: Just upgrading the depth (significantly).
K J Wright is a terrific linebacker who is 29, and has been dinged up. I'd knock Conor more on this, but he's talking about a one-year deal. If longer-term options aren't there, this guy can do what Jamie Collins does (except more consistently).
I don't think it will work. Somebody will probably overpay him.
I already extolled DT Christian Covington's virtues my own self as one of several affordable veteran defensive tackles in a saturated market.
Covington can definitely play nose tackle.
I like edge-rusher Benson Mayowa, but think Conor is forgetting to not sign players who aren't as good as those already on the roster.
We need to back off on Ogbah as a pure edge-rusher, because Gregg Williams hasn't used him enough off the edge. (This was partly Genard Avery's fault. Gregg sent him from the edge a lot while Ogbah played inside the tackle).
As Conor himself points out, this draft class is deep in edge-rushers, and Dorsey has four draft picks in the top three rounds.
It's also a tad early to just write off Chad Thomas. Why do you always do that to a guy who doesn't play much as a rookie? Do you need to hear his name a lot to remember that John Dorsey drafted him and he is still on the team? Is this your attention span, really?
Conor suffers the same delusion that many local pundits do, and thinks the Browns need more wide receivers.
Chris Conley is very similar to Breshad Perriman, except Perriman is BETTER. For that matter, Damion Ratley in his second year will probably be better as well.
Conor, the Browns are all set at wide reciever stop it...just stop it.
Jake Burns exposed me as a dumbass in his Film-room study of Larry Ogunjobi. Larry has been wreaking most of his havoc from between the guards (zero and one-technique).
I said he was "wasted" there.
I still think he's a better three than zero or one, however. I guess Coley was the three then...I don't get that part.
I DO get having Larry attack from zero and one--that's Gregg Williams. Most defensive coordinators will attack with the 3 and have the zero cause a traffic jam.
Wilks may well do things differently, but I was wrong to declare that the Browns needed a zero more than a three in free agency and the draft.
No problem. Ogunjobi is a guy to build the DT rotation around, wherever he plays.
Thanks for exposing my dumbassitude, Jake! Dammit.
Errahh...let's just remember that the 2018 Browns sucked like a Hoover vs the run, so...
Yeah and you too, Gregg Williams! Thanks for doing all kinds of wierd stuff and befuddling me! ...but you sucked vs the run, didn't you?
I feel smart again.
Okbye.
Former Brown Colt McCoy, Teddy Bridgewater, and Blake Bortles.
All three have some warts on them, of course. Of the three, I like Bridgewater best, but expect him to be hard to "bring down".
Unlike the other two guys, Teddy was a top-notch (Pro Bowl) starting quarterback prior to his horrific injury, but now seems to have recovered.
He surely still considers himself a starter, and so should more than one quarterback-starved team (including Bortles' Jagwires) in this crappy quarterback draft year.
Matt makes the mistake everybody else does in talking about "mentoring" Baker Mayfield, as if he's Sam Darnold or something. But sure, any of these guys could offer him some tips based on what they see from the sidelines.
Conor Dorney names five veteran free agents at other positions:
Former Browns cornerback Pierre Desir would be nice to have, because none of the other guys has his "length". Desir was never less than average, and has grown into a very solid all-around cornerback.
We're not talking about replacing Terrence Mitchell as the starter here, though: Just upgrading the depth (significantly).
K J Wright is a terrific linebacker who is 29, and has been dinged up. I'd knock Conor more on this, but he's talking about a one-year deal. If longer-term options aren't there, this guy can do what Jamie Collins does (except more consistently).
I don't think it will work. Somebody will probably overpay him.
I already extolled DT Christian Covington's virtues my own self as one of several affordable veteran defensive tackles in a saturated market.
Covington can definitely play nose tackle.
I like edge-rusher Benson Mayowa, but think Conor is forgetting to not sign players who aren't as good as those already on the roster.
We need to back off on Ogbah as a pure edge-rusher, because Gregg Williams hasn't used him enough off the edge. (This was partly Genard Avery's fault. Gregg sent him from the edge a lot while Ogbah played inside the tackle).
As Conor himself points out, this draft class is deep in edge-rushers, and Dorsey has four draft picks in the top three rounds.
It's also a tad early to just write off Chad Thomas. Why do you always do that to a guy who doesn't play much as a rookie? Do you need to hear his name a lot to remember that John Dorsey drafted him and he is still on the team? Is this your attention span, really?
Conor suffers the same delusion that many local pundits do, and thinks the Browns need more wide receivers.
Chris Conley is very similar to Breshad Perriman, except Perriman is BETTER. For that matter, Damion Ratley in his second year will probably be better as well.
Conor, the Browns are all set at wide reciever stop it...just stop it.
Jake Burns exposed me as a dumbass in his Film-room study of Larry Ogunjobi. Larry has been wreaking most of his havoc from between the guards (zero and one-technique).
I said he was "wasted" there.
I still think he's a better three than zero or one, however. I guess Coley was the three then...I don't get that part.
I DO get having Larry attack from zero and one--that's Gregg Williams. Most defensive coordinators will attack with the 3 and have the zero cause a traffic jam.
Wilks may well do things differently, but I was wrong to declare that the Browns needed a zero more than a three in free agency and the draft.
No problem. Ogunjobi is a guy to build the DT rotation around, wherever he plays.
Thanks for exposing my dumbassitude, Jake! Dammit.
Errahh...let's just remember that the 2018 Browns sucked like a Hoover vs the run, so...
Yeah and you too, Gregg Williams! Thanks for doing all kinds of wierd stuff and befuddling me! ...but you sucked vs the run, didn't you?
I feel smart again.
Okbye.
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Browns Dumbass Mock Drafts, Defensive Tackles, more DePodesta
The top need the Browns have is Defensive Tackle. WFNY's Joe Gilbert clarifies it in his final report card. In a nutshell, Joe says everybody except Larry Ogunjobi sucked.
This is true, but Joe and others aren't yet considering the scheme Wilks will run, or the types of players that are actually missing.
As you can see in this Bleacher Report summary of the most common 4-3 fronts, most Coaches use a zero/one and a three technique defensive tackle, and these are two different types of player.
The writer of this article described all 4-3 alignments as "one-gap" schemes, unless the given coach uses "hybrid" looks. That's half-wrong, because the "zero shade" is there to force double-teams;
He targets the center rather than the gap, attempting to take advantage of him while his snap-hand is back and his balance is undermined.
He's often responsible for both A-gaps. This player forces double-teams, pulling the nearest guard to him.
This causes a traffic jam, even if the nose is unable to get penetration-depriving the running back of at least one gap.
Larry Ogunjobi proved able to effectively play both nose and three-technique, but he's kind of wasted at nose.
Joe and others suggest that Ogbah may be one option inside. Situationally yes, but only at three-technique.
Gregg Williams moved Ogbah inside almost as often as he lined him up outside in 2018, and it didn't work too well. In fact, some very smart people have suggested that getting better defensive tackles and keeping Ogbah on the edge more might well solve the "edge-rusher" problem.
(No knock on Gregg here. Ogbah drasticly out-quicks guards, and is freakishly strong for his size, so lining him up in a B-gap should have worked).
Ogbah should be a good situational option (at three technique), but the defensive tackle(s) John Dorsey is looking for must include at least one run-stuffing, space-eating brute.
As Joe says, the Browns could really use three new (real) defensive tackles.
Gregg Williams seemed uninterested in big run-stuffers. He loaded up on defensive end/tackle athletic penetrators. I must assume that Wilks will submit a different kind of "wish list" to John Dorsey.
From a DePodestian perspective, this is good news. Everybody wants Aaron Donald now, and the "boring" run-stuffers won't have as much percieved value.
Walter Football ranks the 2019 DT draft class. It looks deeper than I had thought, and John Dorsey should find good ones at least into the bottom of the fourth round (and pure run-stuffers into the undrafteds).
Back to DePodesta: GMs tend to prioritize "three down" players. In the modern NFL, a pure run-stuffing defensive tackle might only get on the field 25-30% of the time, and they're not great special teamers.
But DePodesta and I know that the one out of four downs these guys are useful on are goal line stands and second and third and shorts...that is on critical downs.
So look for John Dorsey to draft some big powerful guy in the 5th round or lower to play the zero in short yardage situations.
But of course free agency comes first, and Walter lists those guys too.
Everybody knows about Grady Jarrett and Sheldon Richardson, but their teams might franchise them, and if they don't, they'll cost somebody the stars and the moon.
John Dorsey will find more "traction" (leverage) with Pierce, Irving, Covington, and Philon. (I left Wilkerson out because he's 29).
Walter's list goes on and on. The defensive tackle "market" is saturated. DePodesta and Dorsey will ruthlessly exploit this second tier.
DePodesta groks leverage, too: These players and their agents will recognize a real chance of starting for the Browns, along with Baker Mayfield and a rapidly ascending team.
What a difference a year makes! John Dorsey won't have to pay any "premiums" to bribe upper-echelon free agents in 2019.
In 2018, John Dorsey signed and traded for FOUR veteran defensive backs before drafting Denzel Ward. He's likely to hammer the veteran defensive tackle (and linebacker) free agents that way during this free agency period.
He might well have both position groups "covered" affordably ahead of the 2019 draft.
The new players should average under 28 years old, and sign multi-year contracts (with guaranteed monies front-loaded) too.
Corey Kinnon lists the prominant Browns 2019 free agents, and predicts their futures.
I thank Corey for reminding me that the named players get a vote, which is why he expects EJ Gaines to hit the dusty trail.
Corey also has my back on a couple other guys, like TE Orson Charles, who he thinks will leave as well.
Todd Monken is an Air Raid guy, and Freddie Kitchens used those concepts to help Baker Mayfield out too. We're unmistakeably moving on from Todd Haley here.
As Corey pointed out, Monken's hiring was probably good news for Rodney DeValvefield.
Seth DeValve, after a promising rookie season (and second season) at tight end, got elbowed off the field last season by Njoku and everybody else not named DeValve.
DeValve was a wide receiver in college. Between his rookie and second NFL seasons, he packed on over 20 lbs of muscle in an effort to become a true tight end.
He broke even with the rookie Njoku as a receiver statisticly in 2017.
DeValve is shorter than Njoku, and Njoku was a better in-line blocker (and bigger target). DeValve was tried at fullback (and of course H-back).
Freddie Kitchens didn't rescue DeValve when he took over from Mywayorthehighway Haley, but Freddie didn't really have time to reinvent the wheel, and had Duke, Higgins, Njoku, Callaway, Landry, and Perriman.
Kudos to Corey Kinnon for seeing how Kitchens and Monken are likely to favor DeValve over "blocking" tight ends.
Freddie did sometimes favor modified wishbones and "elephant" formations, but he hired Monken for a reason, and Baker Mayfield is his quarterback.
Seth DeValve might need work as a lead-blocker(?), but he's a very reliable receiver who can make big plays.
The clueless people who think the Browns need more wide receivers are generally not aware of DeValve's existance (let alone what Mayfield does best, or Monken's scheme).
Andrew Gribble (don't shoot the messenger) reports that a bunch of mock drafters predict that the Browns will draft an offensive tackle or wide receiver at 17th overall.
I want to call them a bunch of idiots, but most of them are trying to figure out 32 teams, and this is very, very early. They haven't done any real homework yet on individual teams.
But the picks themselves are pretty dumb, from a Browns OCD perspective:
REDUNDANCY ALERT:
1: No Joe Thomas required:
Baker Mayfield is decisive and highly mobile. This offensive scheme is being built to exploit this. Seven-step drops or slow-developing plays will be rare.
Greg Robinson (not to mention Rodney Harrisonfield) will continue to work just fine with this specific quarterback in this specific offensive system, thank you.
2: John Dorsey has too many wide receivers, and Baker Mayfield can't seem to find a favorite.
Dorsey probably disagrees with these mock drafters as he tries to figure out how much to pay Rashard Higgins and Breshad Perriman.
2a: Baker Mayfield couldn't care less. He's probably insulted by people who think he needs more "weapons", or a blindside "bodyguard".
3: Desmond Harrison...period.
Of course, as I mentioned, Dorsey/DePodesta will be busy in free agency, and able to address their REAL top needs.
By the time the draft rolls around, the picture will be a lot different than it is now.
In the 2019 NFL draft, John Dorsey should be able to really draft the best available player from top to bottom, as he's addressed his (REAL) needs in free agency.
Let me channel Paul DePodesta here:
Now is the time to trade UP for a stud, or trade down to accumulate future draft picks. If you draft 11 players, you are wasting more than half of them, because your team is one of the most talented in the NFL already.
Lord Insideous (Belichick) has traded "into the future" for over a decade. He moves down 4-11 slots, and accepts an (at least one round higher) future draft pick (and more).
John Dorsey hasn't done much of this yet himself, but now he's met Paul DePodesta.
In this alarming article, Baker Mayfield has had dinner with Von Miller and Beckham Jr., which strongly suggests "recruiting".
I'm not too worried about it. Obviously, Mayfield is getting great publicity out of it, and I guess he has an excellent PR guy. Stand by for a bunch of Baker Mayfield commercials...well and Von Miller and Beckham commerials too...
You people need to ignore most of this crap.
...Or okay Baker might be more of a dumbass than I thought he was. As a quarterback, he's a genius. But we've seen his emotional immaturity (if not stupidity) on display as he's taunted Hue Jackson.
Maybe he's a "quarterback savant", and an idiot otherwise.
...Nah I think it's marketing. No way Mayfield is...well niether Von Miller nor Beckham Jr will be Cleveland Browns, and Baker has to know that.
Sorry to break your hearts.
Freddie Kitchens told Baker to "decompress" in his first NFL offseason (before he was named Head Coach).
I like Freddie even more now. Mayfield is obsessed, and a workahaulic. He needs to take some time off and relax...not even look at films. Just vacation with his new wife and live life for 6-8 weeks.
...then "get back into it" with renewed focus and vigor.
Kitchens said that Mayfield is "no where near where we want him to be".
Hoe. Lee. CHIT!!!
This is true, but Joe and others aren't yet considering the scheme Wilks will run, or the types of players that are actually missing.
As you can see in this Bleacher Report summary of the most common 4-3 fronts, most Coaches use a zero/one and a three technique defensive tackle, and these are two different types of player.
The writer of this article described all 4-3 alignments as "one-gap" schemes, unless the given coach uses "hybrid" looks. That's half-wrong, because the "zero shade" is there to force double-teams;
He targets the center rather than the gap, attempting to take advantage of him while his snap-hand is back and his balance is undermined.
He's often responsible for both A-gaps. This player forces double-teams, pulling the nearest guard to him.
This causes a traffic jam, even if the nose is unable to get penetration-depriving the running back of at least one gap.
Larry Ogunjobi proved able to effectively play both nose and three-technique, but he's kind of wasted at nose.
Joe and others suggest that Ogbah may be one option inside. Situationally yes, but only at three-technique.
Gregg Williams moved Ogbah inside almost as often as he lined him up outside in 2018, and it didn't work too well. In fact, some very smart people have suggested that getting better defensive tackles and keeping Ogbah on the edge more might well solve the "edge-rusher" problem.
(No knock on Gregg here. Ogbah drasticly out-quicks guards, and is freakishly strong for his size, so lining him up in a B-gap should have worked).
Ogbah should be a good situational option (at three technique), but the defensive tackle(s) John Dorsey is looking for must include at least one run-stuffing, space-eating brute.
As Joe says, the Browns could really use three new (real) defensive tackles.
Gregg Williams seemed uninterested in big run-stuffers. He loaded up on defensive end/tackle athletic penetrators. I must assume that Wilks will submit a different kind of "wish list" to John Dorsey.
From a DePodestian perspective, this is good news. Everybody wants Aaron Donald now, and the "boring" run-stuffers won't have as much percieved value.
Walter Football ranks the 2019 DT draft class. It looks deeper than I had thought, and John Dorsey should find good ones at least into the bottom of the fourth round (and pure run-stuffers into the undrafteds).
Back to DePodesta: GMs tend to prioritize "three down" players. In the modern NFL, a pure run-stuffing defensive tackle might only get on the field 25-30% of the time, and they're not great special teamers.
But DePodesta and I know that the one out of four downs these guys are useful on are goal line stands and second and third and shorts...that is on critical downs.
So look for John Dorsey to draft some big powerful guy in the 5th round or lower to play the zero in short yardage situations.
But of course free agency comes first, and Walter lists those guys too.
Everybody knows about Grady Jarrett and Sheldon Richardson, but their teams might franchise them, and if they don't, they'll cost somebody the stars and the moon.
John Dorsey will find more "traction" (leverage) with Pierce, Irving, Covington, and Philon. (I left Wilkerson out because he's 29).
Walter's list goes on and on. The defensive tackle "market" is saturated. DePodesta and Dorsey will ruthlessly exploit this second tier.
DePodesta groks leverage, too: These players and their agents will recognize a real chance of starting for the Browns, along with Baker Mayfield and a rapidly ascending team.
What a difference a year makes! John Dorsey won't have to pay any "premiums" to bribe upper-echelon free agents in 2019.
In 2018, John Dorsey signed and traded for FOUR veteran defensive backs before drafting Denzel Ward. He's likely to hammer the veteran defensive tackle (and linebacker) free agents that way during this free agency period.
He might well have both position groups "covered" affordably ahead of the 2019 draft.
The new players should average under 28 years old, and sign multi-year contracts (with guaranteed monies front-loaded) too.
Corey Kinnon lists the prominant Browns 2019 free agents, and predicts their futures.
I thank Corey for reminding me that the named players get a vote, which is why he expects EJ Gaines to hit the dusty trail.
Corey also has my back on a couple other guys, like TE Orson Charles, who he thinks will leave as well.
Todd Monken is an Air Raid guy, and Freddie Kitchens used those concepts to help Baker Mayfield out too. We're unmistakeably moving on from Todd Haley here.
As Corey pointed out, Monken's hiring was probably good news for Rodney DeValvefield.
Seth DeValve, after a promising rookie season (and second season) at tight end, got elbowed off the field last season by Njoku and everybody else not named DeValve.
DeValve was a wide receiver in college. Between his rookie and second NFL seasons, he packed on over 20 lbs of muscle in an effort to become a true tight end.
He broke even with the rookie Njoku as a receiver statisticly in 2017.
DeValve is shorter than Njoku, and Njoku was a better in-line blocker (and bigger target). DeValve was tried at fullback (and of course H-back).
Freddie Kitchens didn't rescue DeValve when he took over from Mywayorthehighway Haley, but Freddie didn't really have time to reinvent the wheel, and had Duke, Higgins, Njoku, Callaway, Landry, and Perriman.
Kudos to Corey Kinnon for seeing how Kitchens and Monken are likely to favor DeValve over "blocking" tight ends.
Freddie did sometimes favor modified wishbones and "elephant" formations, but he hired Monken for a reason, and Baker Mayfield is his quarterback.
Seth DeValve might need work as a lead-blocker(?), but he's a very reliable receiver who can make big plays.
The clueless people who think the Browns need more wide receivers are generally not aware of DeValve's existance (let alone what Mayfield does best, or Monken's scheme).
Andrew Gribble (don't shoot the messenger) reports that a bunch of mock drafters predict that the Browns will draft an offensive tackle or wide receiver at 17th overall.
I want to call them a bunch of idiots, but most of them are trying to figure out 32 teams, and this is very, very early. They haven't done any real homework yet on individual teams.
But the picks themselves are pretty dumb, from a Browns OCD perspective:
REDUNDANCY ALERT:
1: No Joe Thomas required:
Baker Mayfield is decisive and highly mobile. This offensive scheme is being built to exploit this. Seven-step drops or slow-developing plays will be rare.
Greg Robinson (not to mention Rodney Harrisonfield) will continue to work just fine with this specific quarterback in this specific offensive system, thank you.
2: John Dorsey has too many wide receivers, and Baker Mayfield can't seem to find a favorite.
Dorsey probably disagrees with these mock drafters as he tries to figure out how much to pay Rashard Higgins and Breshad Perriman.
2a: Baker Mayfield couldn't care less. He's probably insulted by people who think he needs more "weapons", or a blindside "bodyguard".
3: Desmond Harrison...period.
Of course, as I mentioned, Dorsey/DePodesta will be busy in free agency, and able to address their REAL top needs.
By the time the draft rolls around, the picture will be a lot different than it is now.
In the 2019 NFL draft, John Dorsey should be able to really draft the best available player from top to bottom, as he's addressed his (REAL) needs in free agency.
Let me channel Paul DePodesta here:
Now is the time to trade UP for a stud, or trade down to accumulate future draft picks. If you draft 11 players, you are wasting more than half of them, because your team is one of the most talented in the NFL already.
Lord Insideous (Belichick) has traded "into the future" for over a decade. He moves down 4-11 slots, and accepts an (at least one round higher) future draft pick (and more).
John Dorsey hasn't done much of this yet himself, but now he's met Paul DePodesta.
In this alarming article, Baker Mayfield has had dinner with Von Miller and Beckham Jr., which strongly suggests "recruiting".
I'm not too worried about it. Obviously, Mayfield is getting great publicity out of it, and I guess he has an excellent PR guy. Stand by for a bunch of Baker Mayfield commercials...well and Von Miller and Beckham commerials too...
You people need to ignore most of this crap.
...Or okay Baker might be more of a dumbass than I thought he was. As a quarterback, he's a genius. But we've seen his emotional immaturity (if not stupidity) on display as he's taunted Hue Jackson.
Maybe he's a "quarterback savant", and an idiot otherwise.
...Nah I think it's marketing. No way Mayfield is...well niether Von Miller nor Beckham Jr will be Cleveland Browns, and Baker has to know that.
Sorry to break your hearts.
Freddie Kitchens told Baker to "decompress" in his first NFL offseason (before he was named Head Coach).
I like Freddie even more now. Mayfield is obsessed, and a workahaulic. He needs to take some time off and relax...not even look at films. Just vacation with his new wife and live life for 6-8 weeks.
...then "get back into it" with renewed focus and vigor.
Kitchens said that Mayfield is "no where near where we want him to be".
Hoe. Lee. CHIT!!!
Monday, January 28, 2019
Paul DePodesta: Haslam's Smartest Hire...well Until John Dorsey I mean
Could the Browns trade for Von Miller? Yes. But they won't.
As dreamy as it would be to have this sack-monster opposite Myles Garrett, the cost in draft capital AND salary would be unendurable.
Von Miller turns 30 in March. He's due to make 17 mil in base salary in 2019, then 17.5 mil in '20 and '21, at which time he'll be 32.
Matt Florjancic himself guesses that the trade would cost Dorsey two first round draft picks, as well.
The Bears just gave up two of their own first round picks for Khalil Mack, and it seems to have had something to do with da Bearss' awesome defenss, so I can't call people who think this would be a good move dumbasses.
But me? No. Can't do it. John Dorsey is running these drafts, and the 2019 draft is very deep in passrushers (especially edge-rushers).
Ask yourself: "What would BILL do?" Obviously, Lord Insideous would never even contemplate trading two first round picks for a 17 mil/year 30 year old, no matter HOW good he is.
Anyway, this won't happen.
I don't understand where the perception that the Browns need help at cornerback is coming from.
Terrence Mitchell surprised a lot of us in training camp as he overtook EJ Gaines to become an excellent starting cornerback opposite Denzel Ward.
Gaines was lost for the season (not killed). Carey has been a servicable corner, and Boddy-Calhoun can still play corner too.
Both top dawgs Mitchell and Ward missed time off injuries as well, and I guess a bunch of pundits are just looking at generalized stats and broad-brushing the entire corps.
Next season, everybody will return healthy. If John Dorsey extends the (poorly-leveraged) contracts of a couple free agents, the Browns will again have a deep and talented group of cornerbacks.
Wilks is just the right guy to teach Denzel Ward not to "lead with his face".
I love the kid's stubborn toughness and guts, but he really needs to quit tackling like a 250 lb linebacker. Wilks will fix that.
"Shut-down" or man corners don't grow on trees. Most NFL teams can't field two of these guys that they can trust. With Mitchell and Ward, the Browns are one of the lucky teams that can. That's reality.
But this is Cleveland, so we need three or four shut-down cornerbacks...
Don't get me wrong: John Dorsey will probably sign at least one free agent veteran cornerback, and draft at least one as well. Maybe even 17th overall.
I won't knock any of it. In today's mad-bomber NFL, you need lots and lots of cornerbacks, and if an uber-corner is there at 17, good deal.
...except not if a stud defensive tackle, linebacker, or edge-rusher is also there...because, you know...Dorsey needs all those positions before he needs more cornerbacks...D U H.
No offense intended.
Paul DePodesta will break free agency and this draft class down "analytically", and recommend a "strategy" to John Dorsey. Dorsey will thank him for it.
This year's draft-crop is deep in edge/passrushers, but not so much in stud defensive tackles (not sure about linebackers yet).
The veteran free agents (with a real chance of actually making it to the open market) have better depth at defensive tackle, and some pretty good linebackers.
Paul DePodesta's recommendations will seek to exploit and max out these markets.
I understand that Karl Marx has taken over the Department of Education in recent decades, so I have to spell stuff out to you youngsters which would insult my fellow geezers' intelligence:
The veteran free agents are competing with others who play their positions for available jobs. If there are only a couple other guys, they can gouge and get overpaid by desperate teams, and/or "shop around" for nice weather, top contenders, etc.
If there are a bunch of competitors (as there was in 2018 when Dorsey gorged himself on cheap cornerbacks), you take what you can get.
This is called the "free market". Also, "supply and demand". (You can look this up. But hurry, before they start banning and deleting the books).
The best agents get that the draft influences "March madness" (when free agents start running around looking for jobs). So does DePodesta.
The veteran edge-rushers will know that they can't gouge for as much this year, because Dorsey and his ilk know they can draft a guy instead of overpaying them.
As Chief Strategy Officer, Paul DePodesta (to be sure leaning on Swish, PFF, and no doubt his own analytics):
1: Ranks "depth-of-position" in free agency, the draft, and the two combined.
2: Calculates median salaries/values for the veterans.
3: Combines this with the Browns' REAL position needs to rank priorities (here it gets too complicated for me, because I'm not DePodesta. I could do this stuff once, but not any more).
4: Paul gives John the whole thing, down to some specific recommendations about specific players.
Now, the recent ESPN hit-piece on Jimmy Haslam mostly ignored Paul DePodesta.
It's easy to figure out why: Hiring this guy was the smartest thing Jimmy Haslam did (prior to hiring Dorsey).
This "analytics vs football guys" stuff is mostly hype. John Dorsey (and Lord Insideous, for that matter) is analytical as hell.
Paul DePodesta is THE ultimate analyst. If you read this Blog, you know that he was just fooling around in baseball--he's THE top business analytics consultant for the Fortune 500.
He's just having fun helping build a Superbowl winner here. Jimmy Haslam hired him. DEAL with it.
Thanks to the dumbest person ever to have existed (Rodney Haslamfield), one of the biggest brains on Wall Street is doing John Dorsey's heavy lifting.
Listen to me here: John Dorsey built the Chiefs. He's awesome. But Paul DePodesta will (nay---might already have) chang(ed) him into the best GM in the NFL.
John Dorsey never had a DePodesta before. Trust me: He's already had most of his tedious grunt-work done for him for this offseason; he has a "head start".
DePodesta filtered out a lot of for him, spelled out the smartest strategy, and now he and his scouts can focus on (fewer) films to fine-tune their picks.
Most likely, when John Dorsey came to the Browns last season, he was greeted by a Paul DePodesta "data-dump".
Possibly, it sold him on Baker Mayfield, and/or Ward over Chubb. (I'm just wondering--I have no idea.)
Yeah Jimmy Haslam the "meddler". The idiot. Bullcrap. Ok he shouldn't have fired Chud, but most of his other moves were justified.
He started getting a handle on it with DePodesta (and that was a stroke of genius).
Yeah he screwed up, but now here is Dorsey, Mayfield, an incredible coaching staff, and one of the most talented teams in the NFL but nooo! The Haslams godda go!!! Fire dem!
Sorry I was gone for awhile but I'm back now:
That was then. This is now.
Deal with it.
As dreamy as it would be to have this sack-monster opposite Myles Garrett, the cost in draft capital AND salary would be unendurable.
Von Miller turns 30 in March. He's due to make 17 mil in base salary in 2019, then 17.5 mil in '20 and '21, at which time he'll be 32.
Matt Florjancic himself guesses that the trade would cost Dorsey two first round draft picks, as well.
The Bears just gave up two of their own first round picks for Khalil Mack, and it seems to have had something to do with da Bearss' awesome defenss, so I can't call people who think this would be a good move dumbasses.
But me? No. Can't do it. John Dorsey is running these drafts, and the 2019 draft is very deep in passrushers (especially edge-rushers).
Ask yourself: "What would BILL do?" Obviously, Lord Insideous would never even contemplate trading two first round picks for a 17 mil/year 30 year old, no matter HOW good he is.
Anyway, this won't happen.
I don't understand where the perception that the Browns need help at cornerback is coming from.
Terrence Mitchell surprised a lot of us in training camp as he overtook EJ Gaines to become an excellent starting cornerback opposite Denzel Ward.
Gaines was lost for the season (not killed). Carey has been a servicable corner, and Boddy-Calhoun can still play corner too.
Both top dawgs Mitchell and Ward missed time off injuries as well, and I guess a bunch of pundits are just looking at generalized stats and broad-brushing the entire corps.
Next season, everybody will return healthy. If John Dorsey extends the (poorly-leveraged) contracts of a couple free agents, the Browns will again have a deep and talented group of cornerbacks.
Wilks is just the right guy to teach Denzel Ward not to "lead with his face".
I love the kid's stubborn toughness and guts, but he really needs to quit tackling like a 250 lb linebacker. Wilks will fix that.
"Shut-down" or man corners don't grow on trees. Most NFL teams can't field two of these guys that they can trust. With Mitchell and Ward, the Browns are one of the lucky teams that can. That's reality.
But this is Cleveland, so we need three or four shut-down cornerbacks...
Don't get me wrong: John Dorsey will probably sign at least one free agent veteran cornerback, and draft at least one as well. Maybe even 17th overall.
I won't knock any of it. In today's mad-bomber NFL, you need lots and lots of cornerbacks, and if an uber-corner is there at 17, good deal.
...except not if a stud defensive tackle, linebacker, or edge-rusher is also there...because, you know...Dorsey needs all those positions before he needs more cornerbacks...D U H.
Paul DePodesta will break free agency and this draft class down "analytically", and recommend a "strategy" to John Dorsey. Dorsey will thank him for it.
This year's draft-crop is deep in edge/passrushers, but not so much in stud defensive tackles (not sure about linebackers yet).
The veteran free agents (with a real chance of actually making it to the open market) have better depth at defensive tackle, and some pretty good linebackers.
Paul DePodesta's recommendations will seek to exploit and max out these markets.
I understand that Karl Marx has taken over the Department of Education in recent decades, so I have to spell stuff out to you youngsters which would insult my fellow geezers' intelligence:
The veteran free agents are competing with others who play their positions for available jobs. If there are only a couple other guys, they can gouge and get overpaid by desperate teams, and/or "shop around" for nice weather, top contenders, etc.
If there are a bunch of competitors (as there was in 2018 when Dorsey gorged himself on cheap cornerbacks), you take what you can get.
This is called the "free market". Also, "supply and demand". (You can look this up. But hurry, before they start banning and deleting the books).
The best agents get that the draft influences "March madness" (when free agents start running around looking for jobs). So does DePodesta.
The veteran edge-rushers will know that they can't gouge for as much this year, because Dorsey and his ilk know they can draft a guy instead of overpaying them.
As Chief Strategy Officer, Paul DePodesta (to be sure leaning on Swish, PFF, and no doubt his own analytics):
1: Ranks "depth-of-position" in free agency, the draft, and the two combined.
2: Calculates median salaries/values for the veterans.
3: Combines this with the Browns' REAL position needs to rank priorities (here it gets too complicated for me, because I'm not DePodesta. I could do this stuff once, but not any more).
4: Paul gives John the whole thing, down to some specific recommendations about specific players.
Now, the recent ESPN hit-piece on Jimmy Haslam mostly ignored Paul DePodesta.
It's easy to figure out why: Hiring this guy was the smartest thing Jimmy Haslam did (prior to hiring Dorsey).
This "analytics vs football guys" stuff is mostly hype. John Dorsey (and Lord Insideous, for that matter) is analytical as hell.
Paul DePodesta is THE ultimate analyst. If you read this Blog, you know that he was just fooling around in baseball--he's THE top business analytics consultant for the Fortune 500.
He's just having fun helping build a Superbowl winner here. Jimmy Haslam hired him. DEAL with it.
Thanks to the dumbest person ever to have existed (Rodney Haslamfield), one of the biggest brains on Wall Street is doing John Dorsey's heavy lifting.
Listen to me here: John Dorsey built the Chiefs. He's awesome. But Paul DePodesta will (nay---might already have) chang(ed) him into the best GM in the NFL.
John Dorsey never had a DePodesta before. Trust me: He's already had most of his tedious grunt-work done for him for this offseason; he has a "head start".
DePodesta filtered out a lot of for him, spelled out the smartest strategy, and now he and his scouts can focus on (fewer) films to fine-tune their picks.
Most likely, when John Dorsey came to the Browns last season, he was greeted by a Paul DePodesta "data-dump".
Possibly, it sold him on Baker Mayfield, and/or Ward over Chubb. (I'm just wondering--I have no idea.)
Yeah Jimmy Haslam the "meddler". The idiot. Bullcrap. Ok he shouldn't have fired Chud, but most of his other moves were justified.
He started getting a handle on it with DePodesta (and that was a stroke of genius).
Yeah he screwed up, but now here is Dorsey, Mayfield, an incredible coaching staff, and one of the most talented teams in the NFL but nooo! The Haslams godda go!!! Fire dem!
Sorry I was gone for awhile but I'm back now:
That was then. This is now.
Deal with it.
Sunday, January 27, 2019
State of the Cleveland Browns, and LOTS of Corrections and You People
1: After further analysis, I now think that Paul DePodesta and Sashi Brown did want to hire Sean McDermott over Hue Jackson, and that Jimmy thought he knew better.
I think this because I strongly suspect that Sashi Brown was the writer's source.
2: We have to take former bosses talking up former employees with a grain of salt, but MKC's fluff piece on Steve Wilks includes some detailed quotes that offer insight into this guy.
3: While everybody who reads this Blog (or comprehends football) knows that wide receiver is not a need for the Browns, I do expect John Dorsey to draft one at some point.
And maybe a defensive back, and maybe even a center.
I'm hoping that Dorsey can wheel and deal a little in this draft, because no way can ten rookies make this roster. He needs to move up or trade into the future to max out what he has to work with.
A draft pick is a terrible thing to waste.
4: Elliott Kennel wants us to know that the next contracts for Baker Mayfield and Myles Garrett will change the salary cap structure (as in eat up a ton of dough).
Pat Kirwan on NFL Radio pointed out even during the 2016 (Wentz trade-down) draft that the Browns were building up a "balloon payment", assuming that the majority of their highest picks worked out.
This is why Elliott suggests that the wild free agent spending spree some of us were anticipating might not materialize.
Corey Coleman crapped out of that class, but Njoku and Schobert did not, and they will be elite free agents when their rookie contracts expire.
Elliott kept his article as simple as he could to keep it within our limited attention spans, but he could have gone a lot deeper.
Sashi Brown DID build a core of talent--all at once. This core includes Tretter, Zeitler, and Collins.
Here in reality, Sashi Brown (DePodesta) did a great job.
Elliott is right in suggesting that dumping Jamie Collins (and adding 9.25 mil to the salary cap) would be a good idea.
Pat Mc Nanoman did a great job of addressing this issue: Jamie Collins has actually played very well as a Brown, and Wilks might use him differently than Gregg Williams did.
However, that's irrelevant: Dorsey has to dump him to get that 9.25 million back.
Pat mentions Genard Avery in the article itself, then writes that the Browns have no viable replacement for Collins.
Wow.
Some New England writer compared the Browns to the Pats, and thought he...
It's idiocy, really--but I had to give you the link so you could see for yourself:
The Cleveland Browns under Dorsey AND Brown have operated like the Patriots.
If you click that link, you'll be confused.
Niether Sashi Brown nor John Dorsey "paid for depth". Tretter, Zeitler, Randall, Mitchell etc are NOT "depth". They're top-notch starters.
This writer also opines that veteran depth trumps rookie depth...but that using/developing rookies is critical.
Click that link-then read this:
The writer no doubt thinks that signing Tretter and Zietler for big money to start is non-Belichickian, but Belichick signed Randy Moss, Corey Dillon, and a bunch of offensive and defensive linemen as free agents.
This writer doesn't understand what "don't pay for depth" means. Tretter, Zietler, Randall, Mitchell, Robinson, Hubbard etc are starters.
This writer stresses the development of younger players, but also stresses the importance of veteran depth. He somehow contrives to suggest that the Patriots have the Browns beat on both sides of that.
In reality, since 2016 the Browns have been operating just like the Patriots in both the draft and free agency, and John Dorsey himself describes this well-worn strategy of his.
Elliott Kennel (I really like this guy!) came up with yet another terrific article: This time on how well Rodney Higginsfield and Rodney Perrimanfield played (with Mayfield).
Naturally, I've been pointing this out for several weeks, but Elliott gets deep into the numbers, and actually charts their improvement over the course of their respective seasons.
Elliott points out that Landry and Callaway weren't nearly as impressive, and that for some reason the two statistically superior receivers played a lot less.
Kennel isn't an armchair coach, and wasn't criticizing. Landry's leadership and savvy matter, and Callaway needed experience, after all.
As for Landry's drop in production, I can help Elliott out there:
Landry ran a much more limited route tree with the Fins, and much shorter routes on average. He was a very easy target to hit, and was rarely lower than the second option.
Todd Haley used him more conventionally, and Freddie Kitchens didn't change that.
Also, right from the start, Baker Mayfield is a cut above Tannehill and his substitutes, as he sees the whole field, and hits whoever is open (deepest), period.
Even when Callaway and Njoku were dropping passes, he never stopped throwing to them.
I admire Jarvis Landry for not going all Antonio Brown over not monopolizing all the passes for the first time in his carreer. Hell, the guy has tried to recruit Beckham Jr and Brown himself! That's a team player! (and kind of bonkers btw).
Anyway, in this article Elliott Kennel backs me up: Wide Receiver is NOT a position of need for the Cleveland Browns.
Terry Pluto wrote a nice article on John Dorsey and his relationship with the Haslams (and DePodesta...and analytics).
'Nuff said there, but at the end of his article, Terry said he expects Greg Robinson to be re-signed. So do I. He also said the Browns top two needs are (outside) linebacker and defensive tackle.
Terry thinks the Browns felt that Ogunjobi's partner wasn't big enough. Coley is 6'1", 307 lbs.
But Terry might accidentally have a point, as Wilks might have some philosophical differences with Gregg Williams.
Williams differs from a lot of defensive coordinators, as he likes gap-shooting athletes all across the defensive line, and tries to blow runs up in the backfield.
Most 4-3 coaches have the right DT play in the guard/tackle gap, and the other one shaded to the center's right or the right guard's left, and engaging them (playing 2-gap).
As everybody points out 6 times per day, the 2018 Browns ranked 29th vs the run, and it certainly had something to do with Gregg's aggressive scheme, and Trevon Coley (color him gone by the way).
There are a number of scary defensive tackles in this draft class, and the bigger run-stuffers will go much later than they should, as everybody wants the next Aaron Donald.
And then there's that Ravens backup nose tackle they probably can't afford to bid for.
There are also a bunch of (real) linebackers. (Ok, I mean that 3-4 outside linebackers aren't true linebackers.)
The prevalence of 3-4 defenses has sort of devalued real linebackers, so you can often get really good ones into the 4th round and beyond.
John Dorsey found Genard Avery in the 5th round! That was amazing, too, because he's a great passrusher who fits a 3-4 as well as a 4-3.
Really, the toughest nut to crack here will be a not-Garrett edge-rusher.
You can't put the 6'1" Avery's hand in the dirt, and this is a 4-3 anyway.
One analyst suggested that part of Ogbah's problem as a passrusher has been the fact that Gregg Williams lined him up inside instead of on the edge a lot.
He could be right. Wilks and the new assistants could resurrect Ogbah by using him more conventionally.
I'm starting to suspect that Gregg Williams outsmarts his own self sometimes, ya no?
Wilks, for example, might have wanted to keep Carl Nassib.
Just in the Senior Bowl, there are several options at defensive end. Big guys. Light/fast guys. I don't know which Wilks will want yet.
Speaking of which, Gregg Williams usually stuck with four defensive linemen in nickels, and sometimes even dimes.
Wilks might be different, and delete a big guy immediately (but line Avery up like James Harrison).
Wilks blitzes even more than Williams does.
As crazy as it sounds, Wilks also "gambles" more. He doesn't line his free safety up as deep as often as Gregg does (no "angel").
I wonder how Wilks will use Peppers and Rodney Kindredfield. Both can do everything a linebacker does, except defeat 320 lb blockers.
For all we know, the new defensive Coordinator will just put Peppers at WIL and Kndred at strong safety (just spitballin...cuz I might do that, and as you know I am a humble genius -blush-blush).
Bucky Brooks mocks left tackle Jonah Williams to the Browns at 17th overall. I respect the hell out of this ex-player and scout, and moreover his rationale for this pick, but...
Kitchens is the Head Coach, Monkens the Offensive Coordinator, and Mayfield the quarterback.
You can say that Mayfield and Kitchens made Robinson look better than he really is, but...who cares? I mean, are defensive coordinators going to "figure out" Gregg Robinson or something?
Then there's Desmond Harrison, who might have been built in a laboratory somewhere (or geneticly engineered) to play left tackle in the NFL.
Greg Robinson never (to this day) lived up to his lofty draft status, but in 2018 proved to be a decent left tackle, and there's no reason to expect him to regress.
Harrison will challenge Robinson in 2019. The raw, underweight kid disappointed in 2018, but did get a lot of experience. Greg Robinson isn't in this kid's zip code athleticly.
So I just respectfully submit that Bucky Brooks is wrong. He seems to be ignoring the offensive system, the quarterback, and the emerging talent at the position.
Ok you have hung with me here to this point, so I want to reward you by teaching you how to analyze and filter what you hear/read:
Allegedly, John Dorsey and Jimmy Haslam went to Hue Jackson's office to tell him that he was fired.
When Hue (this is incredible in/of itself) asked why, Dorsey allegedly said "you've lost the team".
This part is credible. The blunt answer would be "because you suck". Dorsey would have tried to spare Hue's feelings.
Allegedly, Hue said "get the fuck out of my office!"
And the writer helpfully provides some "close game" stats in between "You lost the team" and "Get the fuck out of my office!"
...remember, Haslam was allegedly standing there? The guy who didn't fire him after his 0-16 season...after the 1-15 season?
And he says this to Dorsey, who sat next to him and said that Hue didn't have "real football players" (an obvious LIE meant to support Hue Jackson)?
And where did this writer get his information? It would have had to come from Haslam, Dorsey, or Jackson, right?
Hue Jackson is obviously the most likely suspect, given his pattern of blaming others for his failures and "editing" history--but no responsible analyst would deem him credible.
I've seen this before. To this day, Art Modell is demonized, and it's bullshit. He was DRIVEN out of Cleveland. Muni Stadium was an atrocity, but Cleveland built new facilities for the Cavs and the Indians, and gave Modell the finger.
Talk radio was full of Modell-bashers 24/7. HE was accused of "meddling" too.
I couldn't believe it. 5 AFC Championship games. The Drive. The Fumble. Somehow, Art Modell got blamed for those! And the "last straw"? He hired BILL BELICHICK!!!
Art Modell was colorblind, and was at the forefront of blowing up the bullshit color-barrier in the NFL. Ask Jim Brown (and his predeccessor).
Modell bailed out the Cleveland Clinic, and generally was too charitable for his own good, and that's why he was in bad shape and HAD TO move his team out of here! He was BROKE!
Art Modell was DRIVEN out of Cleveland, for no rational reason. If YOU PEOPLE (and the City Government) hadn't forced that move, the BROWNS might well have won the Superbowl the very next year!!!
Back off. Take a breath. Pull Jimmy down off the cross (and put him out if he's on fire already).
Think. With. Your. B R A I N.
You people...
I think this because I strongly suspect that Sashi Brown was the writer's source.
2: We have to take former bosses talking up former employees with a grain of salt, but MKC's fluff piece on Steve Wilks includes some detailed quotes that offer insight into this guy.
3: While everybody who reads this Blog (or comprehends football) knows that wide receiver is not a need for the Browns, I do expect John Dorsey to draft one at some point.
And maybe a defensive back, and maybe even a center.
I'm hoping that Dorsey can wheel and deal a little in this draft, because no way can ten rookies make this roster. He needs to move up or trade into the future to max out what he has to work with.
A draft pick is a terrible thing to waste.
4: Elliott Kennel wants us to know that the next contracts for Baker Mayfield and Myles Garrett will change the salary cap structure (as in eat up a ton of dough).
Pat Kirwan on NFL Radio pointed out even during the 2016 (Wentz trade-down) draft that the Browns were building up a "balloon payment", assuming that the majority of their highest picks worked out.
This is why Elliott suggests that the wild free agent spending spree some of us were anticipating might not materialize.
Corey Coleman crapped out of that class, but Njoku and Schobert did not, and they will be elite free agents when their rookie contracts expire.
Elliott kept his article as simple as he could to keep it within our limited attention spans, but he could have gone a lot deeper.
Sashi Brown DID build a core of talent--all at once. This core includes Tretter, Zeitler, and Collins.
Here in reality, Sashi Brown (DePodesta) did a great job.
Elliott is right in suggesting that dumping Jamie Collins (and adding 9.25 mil to the salary cap) would be a good idea.
Pat Mc Nanoman did a great job of addressing this issue: Jamie Collins has actually played very well as a Brown, and Wilks might use him differently than Gregg Williams did.
However, that's irrelevant: Dorsey has to dump him to get that 9.25 million back.
Pat mentions Genard Avery in the article itself, then writes that the Browns have no viable replacement for Collins.
Wow.
Some New England writer compared the Browns to the Pats, and thought he...
It's idiocy, really--but I had to give you the link so you could see for yourself:
The Cleveland Browns under Dorsey AND Brown have operated like the Patriots.
If you click that link, you'll be confused.
Niether Sashi Brown nor John Dorsey "paid for depth". Tretter, Zeitler, Randall, Mitchell etc are NOT "depth". They're top-notch starters.
This writer also opines that veteran depth trumps rookie depth...but that using/developing rookies is critical.
Click that link-then read this:
The writer no doubt thinks that signing Tretter and Zietler for big money to start is non-Belichickian, but Belichick signed Randy Moss, Corey Dillon, and a bunch of offensive and defensive linemen as free agents.
This writer doesn't understand what "don't pay for depth" means. Tretter, Zietler, Randall, Mitchell, Robinson, Hubbard etc are starters.
This writer stresses the development of younger players, but also stresses the importance of veteran depth. He somehow contrives to suggest that the Patriots have the Browns beat on both sides of that.
In reality, since 2016 the Browns have been operating just like the Patriots in both the draft and free agency, and John Dorsey himself describes this well-worn strategy of his.
Elliott Kennel (I really like this guy!) came up with yet another terrific article: This time on how well Rodney Higginsfield and Rodney Perrimanfield played (with Mayfield).
Naturally, I've been pointing this out for several weeks, but Elliott gets deep into the numbers, and actually charts their improvement over the course of their respective seasons.
Elliott points out that Landry and Callaway weren't nearly as impressive, and that for some reason the two statistically superior receivers played a lot less.
Kennel isn't an armchair coach, and wasn't criticizing. Landry's leadership and savvy matter, and Callaway needed experience, after all.
As for Landry's drop in production, I can help Elliott out there:
Landry ran a much more limited route tree with the Fins, and much shorter routes on average. He was a very easy target to hit, and was rarely lower than the second option.
Todd Haley used him more conventionally, and Freddie Kitchens didn't change that.
Also, right from the start, Baker Mayfield is a cut above Tannehill and his substitutes, as he sees the whole field, and hits whoever is open (deepest), period.
Even when Callaway and Njoku were dropping passes, he never stopped throwing to them.
I admire Jarvis Landry for not going all Antonio Brown over not monopolizing all the passes for the first time in his carreer. Hell, the guy has tried to recruit Beckham Jr and Brown himself! That's a team player! (and kind of bonkers btw).
Anyway, in this article Elliott Kennel backs me up: Wide Receiver is NOT a position of need for the Cleveland Browns.
Terry Pluto wrote a nice article on John Dorsey and his relationship with the Haslams (and DePodesta...and analytics).
'Nuff said there, but at the end of his article, Terry said he expects Greg Robinson to be re-signed. So do I. He also said the Browns top two needs are (outside) linebacker and defensive tackle.
Terry thinks the Browns felt that Ogunjobi's partner wasn't big enough. Coley is 6'1", 307 lbs.
But Terry might accidentally have a point, as Wilks might have some philosophical differences with Gregg Williams.
Williams differs from a lot of defensive coordinators, as he likes gap-shooting athletes all across the defensive line, and tries to blow runs up in the backfield.
Most 4-3 coaches have the right DT play in the guard/tackle gap, and the other one shaded to the center's right or the right guard's left, and engaging them (playing 2-gap).
As everybody points out 6 times per day, the 2018 Browns ranked 29th vs the run, and it certainly had something to do with Gregg's aggressive scheme, and Trevon Coley (color him gone by the way).
There are a number of scary defensive tackles in this draft class, and the bigger run-stuffers will go much later than they should, as everybody wants the next Aaron Donald.
And then there's that Ravens backup nose tackle they probably can't afford to bid for.
There are also a bunch of (real) linebackers. (Ok, I mean that 3-4 outside linebackers aren't true linebackers.)
The prevalence of 3-4 defenses has sort of devalued real linebackers, so you can often get really good ones into the 4th round and beyond.
John Dorsey found Genard Avery in the 5th round! That was amazing, too, because he's a great passrusher who fits a 3-4 as well as a 4-3.
Really, the toughest nut to crack here will be a not-Garrett edge-rusher.
You can't put the 6'1" Avery's hand in the dirt, and this is a 4-3 anyway.
One analyst suggested that part of Ogbah's problem as a passrusher has been the fact that Gregg Williams lined him up inside instead of on the edge a lot.
He could be right. Wilks and the new assistants could resurrect Ogbah by using him more conventionally.
I'm starting to suspect that Gregg Williams outsmarts his own self sometimes, ya no?
Wilks, for example, might have wanted to keep Carl Nassib.
Just in the Senior Bowl, there are several options at defensive end. Big guys. Light/fast guys. I don't know which Wilks will want yet.
Speaking of which, Gregg Williams usually stuck with four defensive linemen in nickels, and sometimes even dimes.
Wilks might be different, and delete a big guy immediately (but line Avery up like James Harrison).
Wilks blitzes even more than Williams does.
As crazy as it sounds, Wilks also "gambles" more. He doesn't line his free safety up as deep as often as Gregg does (no "angel").
I wonder how Wilks will use Peppers and Rodney Kindredfield. Both can do everything a linebacker does, except defeat 320 lb blockers.
For all we know, the new defensive Coordinator will just put Peppers at WIL and Kndred at strong safety (just spitballin...cuz I might do that, and as you know I am a humble genius -blush-blush).
Bucky Brooks mocks left tackle Jonah Williams to the Browns at 17th overall. I respect the hell out of this ex-player and scout, and moreover his rationale for this pick, but...
Kitchens is the Head Coach, Monkens the Offensive Coordinator, and Mayfield the quarterback.
You can say that Mayfield and Kitchens made Robinson look better than he really is, but...who cares? I mean, are defensive coordinators going to "figure out" Gregg Robinson or something?
Then there's Desmond Harrison, who might have been built in a laboratory somewhere (or geneticly engineered) to play left tackle in the NFL.
Greg Robinson never (to this day) lived up to his lofty draft status, but in 2018 proved to be a decent left tackle, and there's no reason to expect him to regress.
Harrison will challenge Robinson in 2019. The raw, underweight kid disappointed in 2018, but did get a lot of experience. Greg Robinson isn't in this kid's zip code athleticly.
So I just respectfully submit that Bucky Brooks is wrong. He seems to be ignoring the offensive system, the quarterback, and the emerging talent at the position.
Ok you have hung with me here to this point, so I want to reward you by teaching you how to analyze and filter what you hear/read:
Allegedly, John Dorsey and Jimmy Haslam went to Hue Jackson's office to tell him that he was fired.
When Hue (this is incredible in/of itself) asked why, Dorsey allegedly said "you've lost the team".
This part is credible. The blunt answer would be "because you suck". Dorsey would have tried to spare Hue's feelings.
Allegedly, Hue said "get the fuck out of my office!"
And the writer helpfully provides some "close game" stats in between "You lost the team" and "Get the fuck out of my office!"
...remember, Haslam was allegedly standing there? The guy who didn't fire him after his 0-16 season...after the 1-15 season?
And he says this to Dorsey, who sat next to him and said that Hue didn't have "real football players" (an obvious LIE meant to support Hue Jackson)?
And where did this writer get his information? It would have had to come from Haslam, Dorsey, or Jackson, right?
Hue Jackson is obviously the most likely suspect, given his pattern of blaming others for his failures and "editing" history--but no responsible analyst would deem him credible.
I've seen this before. To this day, Art Modell is demonized, and it's bullshit. He was DRIVEN out of Cleveland. Muni Stadium was an atrocity, but Cleveland built new facilities for the Cavs and the Indians, and gave Modell the finger.
Talk radio was full of Modell-bashers 24/7. HE was accused of "meddling" too.
I couldn't believe it. 5 AFC Championship games. The Drive. The Fumble. Somehow, Art Modell got blamed for those! And the "last straw"? He hired BILL BELICHICK!!!
Art Modell was colorblind, and was at the forefront of blowing up the bullshit color-barrier in the NFL. Ask Jim Brown (and his predeccessor).
Modell bailed out the Cleveland Clinic, and generally was too charitable for his own good, and that's why he was in bad shape and HAD TO move his team out of here! He was BROKE!
Art Modell was DRIVEN out of Cleveland, for no rational reason. If YOU PEOPLE (and the City Government) hadn't forced that move, the BROWNS might well have won the Superbowl the very next year!!!
Back off. Take a breath. Pull Jimmy down off the cross (and put him out if he's on fire already).
Think. With. Your. B R A I N.
You people...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)