It has finally begun to start to dawn on somebody besides me that Paul DePodesta, and not Sashi Brown, is the "analytics" guy...and that he is still here.
He will have something to say about the Browns' coaching search and does answer to Haslam (not Dorsey). However, those who were listening heard Jimmy Haslam say that John Dorsey has full control of the search, and will make the final decision.
Speaking of the search, as Dan Justik points out, Rodney Kitchenfield is gaining traction as a Head Coach candidate; as possibly the next Sean McVay.
There are a few problems with that:
1: Not all great Offensive Coordinators are cut out to be great Head Coaches. Would Freddie still run the offense, or would he step back and replace himself? Where would he find anybody as good at that as he is?
2: Freddie has only been an OC for part of one season. He's a prodigy, but...Head Coach? Already?
3: Gregg Williams couldn't stand for the demotion (who could?) So here comes a new Defensive Coordinator and a new defensive system on the eve of contention in the AFC North.
Paul DePodesta is more likely than not going to recommend a short-term extention for Gregg Williams as Head Coach, and giving Freddie Kitchens a big fat raise.
This covers the "not broke" present, and the future. (And don't write Gregg Williams off in any time-frame! Freddie is all the rage, but Rodney Williamsfield has had everything to do with this renaissance! The defense has improved dramatically as well!)
Sometimes analytics is just common sense.
Baltimore writer Vasilis Lericos wrote an excellent analysis of the upcoming Browns-Ravens game.
While Vasilis, like the vast majority of analysts, expect the Ravens to hold serve at home and in crunch-time, this local guy went out of his way to explore how the Browns could upset their apple cart.
After reading this Hensley guy covering the Ravens, this guy is a breath of fresh air (Hensley is biased and arrogant).
Anyway, the fact that the Ravens just went to San Diego and trashed none other than the Chargers is terrifying.
But the matchups matter, and here are some differences between the Chargers and the Browns:
1: The Chargers' guards and center are average or below. Pouncey, in particular, is vulnerable to big nose-tackles, who drive him into the backfield.
The Browns are all above average inside, and RT Hubbard has joined them. Overall, the Browns' offensive line is better than the Chargers'.
2: Philip Rivers is a classic pocket-passer. He can get rid of the ball quickly sometimes, but when deprived of a pocket and chased around, he can't improvise well.
Baker Mayfield can. NT Brandon Williams and RDE Micheal Pierce headline the Ravens' front three. Pierce, who is as good as they come, plays in front of or next to Terrelle Suggs, who usually blitzes himself.
Pierce frankly forces double-teams, and vs the Chargers, this allowed Williams to repeatedly deposit Pouncey in Rivers' lap (and blow up runs).
Vs the Browns, it won't work like that. Suggs will have a better chance of beating Robinson than he did the Chargers' left tackle, but the inside triad matches up with the Ravens' front three better.
The Ravens linebackers and secondary did a great job of stepping on the Chargers' shorter routes, and closing in on the run.
This, they can do to the Browns. The difference here is that Baker Mayfield, unlike Rivers, can buy time with his legs, and deliver strikes on the move.
You can be aggressive and cover like that only for around five seconds. After that, you have a Callaway or Njoku or whoever open and postal. If you haven't nailed the quarterback, that penjulum swings to the offense.
I fully expect this historically good Ravens defense to mess with the Browns' offense all day long. But I don't think it can do to the Browns what it did to the Chargers.
The Browns already beat the Ravens, and that was no accident. Since that game, the Browns' offense (and Mayfield) have become a lot more proficient.
While the Ravens and Jackson have likewise started clicking, there's still no comparing the two offenses.
Kudos to Harbaugh for maxing out what he has, but in reality, he doesn't have that much.
Lamar Jackson has a lot of Micheal Vick in him, complete with all of the issues Vick had early in his carreer.
His strongest (educated, objective) supporters don't expect him to ever become very accurate. He's a freak athlete with a great arm who will drive defensive coordinators bonkers trying to figure out how to stop him.
As Vasilis states, if the Ravens fall behind by much, and Jackson has to throw the ball...that's not good.
Over the last few games, the Browns defense has ranked at least in the top ten. The Ravens offense...not.
It is VERY possible that the Browns will score first, even if it's a field goal. It is very unlikely that the Ravens will EVER get more than 7 points ahead, and Baker Mayfield (or Nick Chubb) can erase that in one play.
Vasilis sees this: The Browns can come back (especially late, vs a fatigued defense). The Ravens probably can't. The Ravens' offense is limited. The Browns' offense has all the tools, including the (much) better quarterback.
Having said all that, I have to retract my guarantee that the Browns will stomp the Ravens in Baltimore. The Ravens have a chance to win.
...a snowball's chance in hell.
A few details: Fells and Njoku look to start, so Freddie Kitchens looks like he'll run a "12" offensive group with Chubb and two tight ends again.
This locks the Ravens into their 3-4 base defense, because it's technically a "jumbo" run formation, with extra blockers.
With some offenses, this is no big deal, but with the Browns and *Mayfield*/Kitchens, Darrin Fells catches passes too.
The two tight ends match up with 3-4 outside linebackers in space on runs or on "max-protect" (usually deep) passes, but I digress:
This personnel group, along with Baker Mayfield's mobility and improvisational skills, forces a defense to not to send more than four passrushers, and forces those four to stay "in their lanes", and not "sell out"; it stifles a defense that needs to stop the run.
This is smart vs the Ravens. As I've already said, the matchups inside between these teams are at best a wash, and twin tight ends short-circuit edge-rushes and can buy or seal off the edge on runs.
The trade-off is slight: There are still two wide receivers (presumably Landry and Callaway). Contrary to obsolete propaganda, these two are now scary enough to warrant attention and keep the free safety back (because you-know-who is the quarterback).
The Ravens were able to stifle underneath routes vs Philip Rivers, but the Chargers didn't use two tight ends, and were a lot weaker inside too...
Long story short, this Browns' offense should be able to run the ball vs the Ravens. (2 YPC in the first quarter. 3.5 YPC in the second, and do the math.)
I look at the PFF matchups here, and see an overall stalemate on both sides of the ball, except at quarterback (and this matters).
The Ravens have a scary rushing offense with Max Williams and Gus Edwards, and FOUR really good tight ends (plus Jackson, of course).
They won't get cute. They'll load up and try to steamroll Gregg Williams' defense (and of course use play-fakes, read-options, rollouts etc).
This sounds terrifying, but over the last five games, it's been "just enough" for the Ravens. I don't think it will be enough vs this Division rival or this quarterback...or running back, or offensive line.
And this time, Gregg Williams and Freddie Kitchens are in charge, and Mayfield has several games under his belt.
Do you expect the Browns to lose? If so, I get it. In Baltimore, the Ravens in all-or-nothing mode, coming off stomping the Chargers, top two defense...
I personally expect the Browns to overcome all that and beat the Ravens, because they're younger, more talented, and have Baker Mayfield.
...oh yeah and a decent kicker.
PS one thing this Hue Jackson "stare-down" bullcrap has proven to me is that Baker Mayfield wants badly to ruin the Ravens' day, even though it helps the Steelers.
...as long as he can screw somebody...
Nah that's not fair: Mayfield simply needs to WIN.
I take the childish taunting of Hue Jackson kind of in-stride myself, because Baker is just "all that".
He's not just maybe at least as accurate as Drew Brees, with Aaron Rodgers' athleticism and arm, but he's already a strong leader.
I've mentioned the coaches, but the main reason I think the Browns will beat the Ratbirds is Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield vs Jackson? No contest. Mayfield vs the Ravens defense? Ok that's problematic, but I remember:
Brian Sipe vs the Steel Curtain Steelers defense. Sipe with his popgun arm; unable to rifle passes to the edges or into small windows; MUCH smaller than Mayfield...
Mayfield is Sipe on steroids. He's just as intelligent and "slippery"; he has all the same instincts. But Baker Mayfield is bigger, taller, faster, and has a MUCH better arm.
Brian Sipe couldn't rifle passes into tight windows like Mayfield can, but he was the NFL MVP one time, and all-pro and Pro-Bowl several times.
Sipe and Mayfield are very similar mentally/psychologically...
Baker Mayfield is Sipe on steroids. He's also Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers all mixed up (DEAL with it!)
...anyhoo, the Browns will probably beat the Ratbirds because the Browns' quarterback will find a way to win.
This seems stupid to say, but I think that with all else evenly matched, the better quarterback should win.
...but that's just me.
PS yep: Read the comments: Baker Mayfield can do no wrong. The Branch Bakerian cult is already entrenched.
Baker, I don't care if you don't care what I think. Here is something for you not to care about:
Quit being a PUNK.
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