Sunday, December 16, 2018

Mayfield in 2019 Pro Bowl, Chubb=Gurley in 2019, Bengals Doomed

I just had a text-convo with my pal Bub, who actually watches college football, and first turned me on to Baker Mayfield well ahead of the 2018 draft.

At the time, I was just absorbing all the "expert" opinions on this historic draft class, and the consensus was that Sam Darnold was the best of the bunch.

Baker Mayfield was too short, and had "off the field" issues, and was being compared by some to Johnny Manswell.  He ran an air-raid offense, and might never fit in the NFL.

But Bub said Mayfield was the best, period.  So I checked him out for myself.

I was astonished by how many of these experts manage to talk themselves out of the obvious.

Mayfield's average yards per-attempt stat was among the highest of all those quarterbacks, and his completion percentage was the highest, by a significant margin.

He ran a kind of air-raid offense, but jeez so did everybody else except Josh Rosen!  

Mayfield was the most successful of all of them, at the highest level of competition.

I could find NO negative comments about his personality, work ethic, leadership, intelligence...in fact everybody loved him.

Then, I made a point of watching Georgia vs Oklahoma in the semi-finals.  Oklahoma lost, but that wasn't on Mayfield.  (Actually, Nick Chubb had a lot to do with it).

I was impressed.  Mayfield is a junk yard dog.  If you keep getting up and throw for around 400 yards, it's not your fault if you lose.

I saw one of the best quarterbacks I'd ever seen, under the lights.  His touch and accuracy were...well I don't think Joe Montana was any better.

He looked like Aaron Rodgers/Drew Brees.

I wondered how the hell all these experts could think that Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, or (for cryin out loud) Josh Allen was better than Baker Mayfield.

Now, after ten starts in the NFL, Baker Mayfield ranks in the top five in four or five quarterback categories, and easily in the top ten overall.

It's not a mirage, or a fluke. He did it under Todd Haley at first (classic drops, vertical routes), and managed to succeed despite this idiotic waste of his talent.

When Mywayorthehighway Haley was fired and Freddie Kitchens took over, Baker shot "up the charts".

Baker Mayfield was never anything other than above average, even as he was suppressed by Todd Haley.

The first half vs the Texans was horrific, but he erased it in the second half of the very same game (threw for nearly 400 yards).

He screwed up a lot vs the Broncos most recently, but his "bad game" still produced a clutch (4 for 4) go-ahead touchdown drive in the clutch, and an 88-plus QBR.

These are his FLOOR.  Even when he "sucks", he's above average!  As a ROOKIE.

Imagine what Baker Mayfield will be like after an offseason of film-study and review of his rookie season.  

I texted Bub that none of the other quarterbacks in the 2018 draft class were in Mayfield's zip code.  He texted back that none of the quarterbacks drafted in the last decade were in his time zone.

Bub is right.  (Well kinda.  I mean Andrew Luck and Mahomes are definitely in his zip code, and Goff in his time zone)...

We can argue about Wentz and Watson, but as it turns out, the Browns have a quarterback who is better than both of them.

Already.

Thanks for shaming me into saying it out loud, Bub.

I'm watching the Rams play the Eagles.  I'm watching Gurley, because I want to see Nick Chubb 2.0.

I've superficially checked out the Browns vs Bengals matchup on PFF.  The Browns have them outgunned on both sides of the ball overall (I was surprised by the degree of this).

The Bengals offensive line is just plain bad.  Tyler Boyd is scary, and so is Mixon, but everybody else (except for left tackle Boling, who is marginally above average), is average or below.

The Browns' offense vs the Bengals defense isn't as much of a mismatch, but still tilts significantly to the Browns.

The Bengals did just stomp the Raiders, but keep that in context: The Browns are better than the Raiders, plus are Division rivals.

Driskel was 14-33 with a pick and interception.  Mixon ran all over them.  Boyd led the receivers with 4 catches for 38 yards.

Driskel did run for 38 yards, and did spread the ball around evenly to 7 receivers, so he's smart (if not accurate).

I haven't seen the defensive stats yet, but clearly the Bengals defense did a fine job: The Raiders' offense (and Carr in particular) had been on a roll.

Still, the Bengals are doomed.  Gregg Williams is intimately familiar with this team, and they're missing Dalton and Green now.

The Browns just ran all over the Broncos in Denver, and stuffed Lindsay.  They stomped a mudhole in the Bengals (with Dalton), and they'll do it again.

I'll get into more detail later, but for now I think they'll run them over offensively and take their balls away defensively.


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