Friday, December 21, 2018

Being Negative is Okay Mike, but it Requires Real Evidence.

I like Mike Lukas a lot.  He's knowledgeable and entertaining.  But sometimes, he is wrong.

It's true that in the second half of the Texans' game, the Texans were protecting a 24-point lead, which helps explain Baker Mayfield's ungodly passing numbers.

But that's not all there was to it.  The Texans still sent four passrushers most of the time.  They did not soften their coverage much, if at all.

The other part of this is that Baker Mayfield learned and adapted...immediately.  You could say "yeah but" in re 240 yards or so, but not 347 yards in one half.

I watched the game.  The Texans kept a lid on the receivers to force shorter throws in the second half, but actually covered those receivers.  Mayfield made a bunch of pinpoint throws to defeat it, and let his guys run with the ball.

The Browns defense is ranked 24th against the run.  Last week, they probably ranked 27th.  At one point, they were at least 30th.

The bulk of this ugly stat was built during the first half of the season.  The Browns were often playing from behind.  They played the Steelers twice, the Saints, Chiefs, Panthers, and Chargers.

Find me a defense that has shut these running games down.

Ward, Mitchell, and Randall got most of the interceptions.

So what?

The Browns haDDD trouble turning those takewaways into points.

Here again, Mike needs to separate current from season-long stats, and might also consider who the coaches (and quarterbacks and running backs) were as well.

Nor does the fact that earlier iterations of this teams' offense failed to convert negate the fact that the Browns defense got all those takeaways, as Mike implies it does.

Mike makes a good point about the team's overall sacks.  It's been Myles Garrett and guys named Joe.

It does matter that since Randall has been here, the "book" on how to attack the Browns defense by air is with quick underneath passes.

PFF ranks them high in hurries, hits, forced throws, and pressure has caused the majority of the defense's interceptions.

Baker Mayfield's QBR is 50.2 (25th), ergo he is having a typical rookie season.

Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Rosen, and Lamar Jackson are having typical rookie seasons.  Mayfield is making all of them look sick.

PFF ranks Mayfield in the top five overall in several categories, and easily twelvth overall (81.4)

Mike really had to dig deep to find that discredited, obsolete measurement, and he had to actually try to ignore all the numbers that do matter.

Under pressure.  In the Red Zone.  Third and fourth down efficiency.  Effectiveness on extended throws.  Yards per-attempt.  Accuracy.

Numbers don't tell the whole story, either.  This rookie changes plays at the line and is almost always right when he does.  He's already passed up a lot of veterans.

I guess Mike just wanted to be "different" or something.

A swing and a miss.

Maybe next time I'll put on my ass basher hat and list all the real problems the Browns have, so Mike can see how it's done.


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