I'm checking out the Browns vs Panthers matchup on PFF, and don't really get how this team could have lost the last four games.
Their front four is very studly. Right tackle Kawan Short is borderline elite, and everybody else is above average.
Happily, Short will face Bitonio.
Keuchle and Thomas Davis are the two linebackers listed. Keuchle remains maybe the best linebacker in football, and Davis is up there near him. Not sure about Davis, but Kuechle is the total package and can cover like a safety.
Kuechly has instincts and smarts like Joe Schobert, but is a better athlete (or at least is faster in a straight line).
This chart shows a nickel base defense with a safety/cornerback hybrid as the fifth defensive back.
All three of these cornerbacks have average grades, so Higgins, Callaway, Landry and Duke should be able to get open.
Free safety Eric Reid is pretty good, but strong safety Adams is not.
Without having studied schemes yet, the Panthers probably run some Tampa Two stuff with Kuechley in the intermediate middle to screw up tight ends and other crossers and slanters.
Unlike most linebackers, Kuechle can pick up and run with (and re-route) passcatching tight ends.
The Panthers do have Reid, Kuechle, and Davis(?), so they should try the bait-and-switch stuff the Texans pulled on Baker Mayfield last week.
But their cornerbacks and strong safety are just so-so, and one week of film-study for Baker Mayfield is like a month is for most rookie quarterbacks (except Mahomes).
I think Freddie will cook up some more three-wides and 21 sets (because these often turn into three-wides anyway).
They can run or throw quick, short passes out of this, and you really can't put a free safety on a Landry or a Johnson out of the slot.
The Texans intercepted Mayfield when he made intermediate and deep throws. The short throws were there for him all day.
The Panthers will try hard to stop the run, of course, and might succeed. They rarely blitze (don't really have to), but they can still screw up a quarterback big-time in third-and-longs.
They can put a lid on the receivers and...
Nevermind but just that's where zone coverage and trickery, deceit, and a good free safety gets turnovers on inexperienced quarterbacks.
The Panthers' offensive line is marginal, aside from right tackle Moten. Left guard Van Roten is the lowest-rated (season-long) by PFF, and he's about to get a snoot full of Myles Garrett and Ogunjobi.
WR DJ Moore is tearing everybody up, and McCaffree and Newton kinda don't care about bad blocking...but I digress:
Coley is pretty bad, per PFF: On the low side of below average. Ogunjobi, they have rated as average, along with Ogbah. (Ogbah is between average and below average). Garrett is rated "high quality".
I can't address the Panthers' depth or trends right now, but I do need to point out that Gregg Williams is now rotating his defensive linemen more heavily, as the backups have progressed in his system.
The surprising one is Anthony Zettel, who fills in at defensive end (mostly inside).
I know it will seem to one of you as if I'm trying to slant my analysis towards the Browns, but it's really just that I know the Browns, and need to point out facts that matter.
Anyway, the Panthers' offensive line vs the Browns' defensive line looks kinda like a wash. Garrett is the best of the bunch, but Moton vs Ogbah/Coley looks bad too.
PFF lists TJ Carrie and Ward as the corners, but Ward is in the concussion protocol. Terrence Mitchell will be back for sure, however, and HE was terrific before he broke his arm.
TJ Carrie is rated above average. If Ward can return for this game, he and Mitchell represent a strong pair of coverage corners, but that's a huge "if".
Funchess and Moore are the Panthers real wide receivers. For whatever reason, Funchess has not done much this season, but Moore is turning into a lethal weapon.
Greg Olsen is now graded above average, and I call that accurate. Age and injuries are taking their tolls on him.
The Panthers' offense is "wierd", because McCaffree lines up everywhere at any given time. He's a little smaller than Duke Johnson, but much faster and more explosive.
Cam Newton has become much more accurate this season, and Moore and McCaffree have benefitted. He hits them in-stride, and they do a variety of damage in the open field.
Ward or Mitchell could stifle Moore, and Funchess seems to be fading, but it's nearly impossible to hold McCaffree to under 150 (or so) yards from scrimmage.
And what about Cam Newton himself?
The Panthers will probably plan for him to run over Ogbah and Coley, for one thing (because it's been there for every scrambler all season long).
IF the defense can chase him around and make him throw on the run, he will throw it away or be 50% accurate.
I do believe Gregg Williams will pressure Newton, and McCaffree won't be wasted in pass protection. I think Olsen will have to chip Garrett, and not get into a pattern for 2-plus seconds.
Newton, McCaffree, and Moore are the guys Gregg Williams has to key on.
Joe Schobert and Damarius Randall will be critical here. Schobert has to set up the defense as the offense deploys (ie based on where McCaffree sets up, mostly), and Randall has to track him, Moore, and Newton himself.
Talent-for-talent, the Browns' defense vs the Panthers' offense isn't a bad matchup. Ward would help massively, but Mitchell and Carrie might be adequate.
Cam Newton and Christian McCaffree will certainly wreak some havoc, but one cornerback (combined with a pass-rush) can put a lid on Moore (ie force short throws and pray you nail him before he takes it to the house).
The Panthers don't have an elite X-receiver, so Gregg can blitze a lot.
The Panthers are trying to use McCaffree as a lead back. He spends the majority of his time in the backfield now, since he's more effective as an uncovered outlet receiver anyway.
But they do try to hand off to him, and "run"-blitzes can blow that up.
Gregg probably needs to blitze inside here, even though the Panthers love to burn that with dumps to McCaffree--I'm too deep in the weeds here:
The Carolina Panthers are very capable of beating the Browns. Their four game losing streak is almost irrelevant, and their coaching-changes and turmoil mean less than the talent on their roster.
...I think the Browns MIGHT win.
I HAVE SPOKEN.
THIS JUST IN: Greg Olsen went to Injured Reserve. This will matter. I don't want to dis his backups, but I can safely doubt that Manhertz or Thomas are as good as he is (or that Cam has many reps with them).
(Update: Ian Thomas stepped in for Olsen and caught five passes for around 50 yards so...nevermind.)
Also, I completely missed rumors of an issue with Cam's throwing shoulder. These rumors have legs, as you don't bench your superstar late and have his backup throwing Hail Marys in a winnable game unless there's something wrong.
Then I've heard it from a couple former NFL quarterbacks who've watched the films.
I've also found a Panthers' vulnerability to opposing tight ends, especially inside their own ten yard line.
I apologize to the Carolina writer who dug up these stats (the article was 3 weeks old and I can't find it again easily).
It was a real problem for them. Early in the 2018 season, the Panthers' defense was fine, but later on, opposing offenses started scoring touchdowns on them with their tight ends at an alarming rate (again, from inside the Panthers' ten yard line).
It kinda makes sense, because it's playing the big tall guys vs short guys in a congested area.
It's targeting the strong safety at a time when the rest of the defense can't afford to help him, as they're worried about bootlegs, dumpoffs, draws, etc.
I guess all they could do vs the Browns is put Reid on Njoku instead...except Higgins is 6'3"...
I'm feeling better about this game now, especially if we get some nasty weather on the Lake.
Upon further review, I don't think the Panthers can stop Nick Chubb.
They're yielding 4.1 ypc to opposing running backs. Nick is getting the props he has earned nationally, but locally, a lot of fans seem to be lagging behind.
Why isn't Duke Johnson getting more touches? Because Nick Chubb is better.
Duke remains the passing-down back, but Nick has clearly won the every-down role, including catching passes.
Meanwhile, we saw last week that Freddie Kitchens has re-discovered Rodney DeValvefield, and before that was using Darren Fells as a receiver as well as a blocker.
Duke can deploy at wide receiver, but Callaway and Higgins are doing fine, so...you want a "committee"? You want Nick Chubb collecting splinters?
I love Duke Johnson too, man, but get a grip. It is what it is!
Anyway, upon further review, the Browns should beat the Panthers in Cleveland.
You really need to adapt to the new paradigm: Baker Mayfield won't throw three interceptions again. Nick Chubb won't step on a land-mine.
The Panthers aren't the Texans.
The fact that the Panthers are still in contention and the Browns really aren't won't fold any orange tents. Mayfield won't let that happen.
Browns 27, Panthers 21.
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