Saturday, April 14, 2018

Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, DePodesta, Dumbassitude, and the Browns

Jim McNanoman misses again, this time on Jarvis Landry.  Yes he got 15 mil/year, but no he's not going to be the number one receiver (over Josh Gordon).

He might catch more passes than everybody else, but the bulk of those will be short passes from the slot.

Landry is short, pretty slow, and not sudden or explosive.  He's not an outside receiver.  On the outside, a second-best opposing cornerback could use the sideline against him, and shut down half his routes.

Landry can't pull away.  If he gains separation, most NFL cornerbacks will catch back up in a few steps.  

Landry excels from the slot because he has the whole field to work with, and always does the smartest thing.

As for "expanding Landry's role", there's another Olympic calibre conclusion-leap.  John Dorsey will no doubt get as creative as he can with Jarvis, but he can't make him taller, faster, or more explosive.

Randy Gurzi had a bad couple weeks, but came back strong in asserting that Tyrod Taylor is one hell of a lot more than a "Bridge" quarterback.

As usual, he backs it up with PFF grades and rankings, as well as statistics, and (like me) points out that he has more weapons here than he had in Buffalo. (Yes he does! Does too!)

I have to admit that (until I read Randy's piece), I was dissing Tyrod myself.  I love Randy, because he "slaps me awake" like this a lot.

He's absolutely right here.  Tyrod Taylor has proven himself on a worse team than he'll have in 2018.  It's perfectly logical to expect those already respectable PFF grades to make a nice jump, and that might put him into the top third of NFL quarterbacks.

But this opens up a whole new can of worms.

Doesn't Dorsey kinda have to draft  quarterback high? Even if he doesn't want to?

So what's he supposed to do with Taylor?  

In my own ignorance, I had expected the Browns to just let his contract expire and start the draft pick in 2019.

The problem with that is, what if the kid busts?  And he could.  The average for high first round draft picks is still only around 50%, and all but one of these guys have weaknesses and flaws.

If I were Dorsey, I'd try to extend Tyrod right tf now.  And we are talking starting money; like over 23-24 mil/year (I'd try for lots of years and front-load the guaranteed money to make him tradeable/releasable in the out years).

This is outside the box.  After all, if all goes well, the drafted quarterback is ready to start in 2019, and now everybody is making fun of the "same old Browns" for paying a backup quarterback 24 mil/year.

Anticipating this, if I'm Dorsey, I spend the money right now.  I renegotiate his extant contract, see?  I give him a big fat raise, all guaranteed up front (I think he's at 16 mil, so I'd make that 24 mil in 2018.

This is DePodestian (long term), by the way, so try to stay with me here.

Again, I'd go for as many years as I could, but shrink the guaranteed portion to 11-13 mil in 2019, and lower in 2020 etc.

Still with me? 

This means that if Tyrod Taylor tears the league a new one in 2018, the Browns can keep riding that wave.  If he is disappointing, his dead money isn't too painful, and a trade remains more likely than a release (he's just too consistent not to be at least above average as a starter).

If the new kid isn't ready, we got that covered.  If he is, and is indeed better than Taylor, then who the hell cares how much we're paying the backup, when we're paying the starter rookie scale money?

And then you trade Taylor duh!

For the team, this covers all the bases, you see?  They have Tyrod Taylor for insurance, only he's also an investment, which could pay huge dividends.

If the rookie pans out, Tyrod is marketable. (Worst case? 12-13 mil dead money if he's released).

The new kid? On the rookie scale for five seasons cheap!

Dorsey couldn't manage to spend enough, and still has a lot of spending money.  He can easily make deals like this right now, and structure them as described so they can't come back to haunt him down the road.

Why would Taylor do this?  Aside from 8 million more bucks and a high end market value contract you mean?

If he gets maimed and his carreer ends prematurely, he still gets paid.  If he does what he expects to do (and even if the new kid fairly or unfairly starts over him in 2019), he will have proven himself: Any team trading for him would intend to start him.  If released, he's got 12 mil locked up, and won't be out of work for long.

Count on DePodesta advising Dorsey to extend Tyrod Taylor right now (and ignore the peanut gallery).

Speaking of the peanut gallery, this "fan" mock draft I saw was amazing: Lamar Jackson first, and Denzel Ward fourth (over Barkley and Fitzpatrick--the Giants nabbed Chubb).

Ohio State fans should be screened out of these things.

But I like Lamar Jackson a lot myself (just not at first overall).  That dude is one scary SOB.  All the defensive coordinators will tell you, he is the guy they hope their Division rivals don't draft.  He'd be damn near impossible to prepare for.

He's a REAL quarterback, for one thing, who has worked in a Pro system, and can throw from the pocket...he's actually a possibility if Dorsey trades down.  He's really underrated.

The knucklehead who had the Browns draft Jackson first overall no doubt compared him to Tyrod Taylor, and perhaps noticed that he was the latest visit to Berea.

Those who think that Tyrod Taylor's skill-set will influence who Dorsey drafts at quarterback don't get it.  Whoever told these people that you have to change a whole offense to suit each specific quarterback was exaggerating (or, more likely, we got more conclusion-leaping going on here).

Offensive coordinators all come with thick playbooks.  With the painfully notable exception of Hue Palmer, they just pick out the half or third of them which best suit the quarterback and his surrounding talent.

...ok I'm sorry I should have specified smart offensive coordinators, since some of them (Mike Martz was one) refuse to adapt.  Fortunately, Todd Haley is a smart one).

There's also lots of "overlap".  Cam Newton and Micheal Vick had to be pocket passers, even as rookies, sometimes.  Nick Foles is not a great athlete, but he excels at run/pass option stuff.  Zeroing in on Todd Haley, compare Big Ben to Kurt Warner.

Lamar Jackson is kinda like Tyrod, but none of the rest of these guys are...not that this matters.

But Gurzi's defense of Tyrod Taylor triggered a synapse:

What if Dorsey and company disagree with the Madding crowd (and the peanut gallery) on the quarterback rankings and got B's in arithmatic?

Is it possible that they would be cool with Rodney Jacksonfield, if not Rodney Mayfieldfield?

In that case, Dorsey trades down from first overall, and might from fourth as well.

Nevermind.  Just spitballin...but as long as Dorsey drafts a quarterback high, he survives the shit-storm; the torches and pitchforks.

Just sa




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