I have to do this again:
"Analytics" is nothing more than thorough, scientific, and unemotional analysis.
In evaluating quarterbacks, their metrics are extremely deep and thorough. A few examples:
Passes are broken down by area of the field targeted, vs what type of coverage, vs the blitze, from the pocket, off play action, off run/pass option, vs higher or lower level competition...I could go on (and on and on and on).
Average time holding the ball. Red zone. Down and distance. Graphs reflecting carreer trends of improvement, stagnation, or regression (well you get it).
While the old school football guys still need to evaluate personality, leadership, dedication, and all the critical unquantifiables, the analytical guys are MUCH, MUCH more reliable than these guys for evaluating on-the-field stuff.
This is because they cannot/don't evaluate films with preconceptions. They simply evaluate each play per very specific and stringent criteriae (and if they don't, I presume they get demoted or fired).
They don't "take notes", but enter data (ie:
Down, distance, leading or trailing, quarter, zone of field, type of coverage, from pocket, shotgun, pistol or--well you get it---because if you don't, I'd be happy to keep going? I thought not.)
It's got to be very tedious for these guys...they probably spend like 10 minutes per play, freezing and rewinding several times---just for the quarterback.
This process is quite familiar to me: This raw data is kicked upstairs, where it's fitted together with broader data (like level of competition, and perhaps weather conditions or whatever), and then just added up.
These people really don't care who they're studying, and they apply most of the exact methodology that the best scouts use (except more comprehensively and more in-depth; leaving nothing out).
The traditional scout can not spend 10 minutes per play to enter all this massive data on every play of every game, even on just the 12 or 15 teams he's assigned to.
He picks out prominant games (vs better teams, in a Bowl game, first and last games, etc) and takes a bunch of notes.
Most of them do great jobs, but they neccessarily miss a lot of stuff, and their "notes" are often tainted by prejudice or fatigue, or other wild variables--however hard they try to override it.
They resent having to waste time on THIS guy, or are excited about this other guy.
This happens a lot in the intelligence community (and got really out of hand in the mid-nineties). Operatives and analysts telling bosses what they wanted to hear because they didn't want to get FIRED, or wanted to get promoted).
A whole LOT of good guys were tortured and murdered, and several battles were lost because of this but I digress (dammit):
Anyway, PFF, Numberfire, and the other guys are incorruptable. Think "Mister Spock" (with access to all available data).
PFF says that Baker Mayfield is by far the best quarterback in this class. He beats the rest of them in damn near every single major, minor, and micro-rating, usually by a wide margin.
The numbers don't lie. His detractors point to the simplicity of his offensive scheme, and the fact that 20% of his passes were screens (ie long handoffs, generally behind the line of scrimmage--it really inflates completion percentages).
Well, I point right back at Mayfield's amazing E L E V E N yards per-attempt: that means that on the other 80% of his passes, he averaged something like TWELVE POINT FOUR yards per-attempt!!!
And don't even think about it: He completed something like 62-63% of his DEEP passes (more than Allen btw obviously).
The PFF Writers did express some personal opinions. They all agreed that Mayfield was also the best quarterback at throwing pinpoint "stick"- passes vs tight coverage, especially in the red zone and on third down...and vs the blitze, of course.
Baker Mayfield is obviously head and shoulders better than the rest of these guys, and if PFF compared him to Watson, Goff, or Wentz entering their own drafts, he'd beat them too.
So what's the problem (aside from his vertical challenge)?
For one thing, some General Managers "can't stand the kid" (I do trust Brad Hopkins on this).
- Well, I can't really go to war against these guys with my analytics, because there are legitimate concerns over his unquantifiables (you know: maturity, personality, emotional discipline, etc? I left "leadership" out on purpose, because even the football guys who hate him can't deny it...except Bill Polian might)
I get it. Will this kid start "Twitter wars" with inflammatory statements? When things go bad and he starts taking heat, can he keep his mouth shut? Can he resist taunting after he sticks it to somebody? Will his "fiery competitor" kind of leadership fly with a veteran locker room? Will he accept collecting splinters as a rookie/will he start "politicking"?
All of these concerns are legit.
A lot of us like that Baker is brutally blunt and honest, including saying "that's not me" when asked how he'd feel about backing up as a rookie.
The unnamed GMs who "can't stand the kid" may have been inarticulate, but if they're really letting their emotions influence their decisions, they're going to get themselves fired.
For John Dorsey (who genuinely likes "the kid" just fine), the potential problems Mayfield might cause can't be ignored.
I believe that Dorsey's other best option is Sam Darnold (and PFF cuncurs).
Darnold isn't the fiery "in your face" leader that Mayfield is, but he is a leader. He has a lot less experience, and a lot more mechanical flaws, but he's bigger, stronger, and reasonably accurate (especially on the run).
His fumbling issues are easily fixed. He just needs to stop waving the ball around in one hand as he scrambles.
Jim Miller will tell you, he does this instinctively, to help his balance as he tries to change directions. In the NFL, he'll keep both hands on the ball until he throws, because he's not going to evade these passrushers anyway.
The picks are a separate issue, but part of it was situational. His judgement is indeed questionable (compared to Rosen or MAYFIELD), but when the chips are down, Darnold accepts the burden, and at least tries to pull it out.
Buzzkill Bill (Polian) likes this, and (more importantly) the fact that after a turnover, he comes right back as aggressive as he was before (he can't be intimidated).
I could accept Sam Darnold over Baker Mayfield if John Dorsey makes that choice. As I've said, this is kinda like Big Ben vs Aaron Rodgers.
But Josh Allen!?! No! No! Noooooo!!!
J fkng C this is why analytics beats "foodball guyzz" all the time!
Didn't I already tell you that Mayfield was better than him on deep passes?
Jeez I'm hearing guys say Allen has the strongest arm by a "wide margin", but in reality that "wide margin" is 5 yards or 3-5 mph! Gimme a break these clowns sound like it's Allen vs three Cody Kesslers!!!
Brad Hopkins: I'm confiscating the phrase "wide margin" from you until you prove that you can use it responsibly.
I'm not a "Premium Subscriber" to Numberfire or PFF, but I'd love to see Darnold's deep ACCURACY vs Allen's too. I'll bet Darnold wins that one!
I'll bet Rosen has Allen beat on his home turf too. If he didn't have a glass jaw, and wasn't a pinko, and didn't have dedication/commitment questions, and wasn't the least athletic, and didn't have teammates (btw not "third party" people) calling him "aloof", I'd rate Rosen a close second to Mayfield; he's real good!
But ALLEN!?!
To me, the Branch Allenians are all insane. But unlike Albert Einsten, I define insanity as not thinking with your brain:
Allen looks real purty, and has an awesome arm. He runs like a deer (so purty!) He's made such amazing throws (got to watch those over and over again wow).
Comparing Allen to Big Ben is obcene, but does help my segue here:
Darnold is comparatively not nearly as pretty as he runs around. He looks like a clod. Like CARSON WENTZ. And in a different way so does Big Ben.
Josh Allen is the clear winner of this beauty contest.
FORTUNATELY, PFF, Numberfire and I don't care about how purty you look! We ONLY care about what you accomplish!
This is important: Ben Roethsenberger (sp?) has been a top five quarterback for a long time. His stats compare well to Brady, Brees, Rodgers etc. But he gets dissed because he is built funny and looks like a clod.
(Stifle yourself, G. Love thine enemy).
The biggest reasons why Josh Allen is the consensus first overall pick are, in order:
1: Strongest arm.
2: Prototypical stature.
3: Second best-looking behind Mayfield.
4: Prettiest running around.
5: Real smart/great guy (I like him better as a person than the rest myself. Darnold second. Rosen last).
NONE of this matters! It's all irrevelant!
All that matters is performance DO YOU UNDERSTAND? This aint fkng beauty contest!
I can deal with Darnold, if not Mayfield, but if Dorsey picks Allen...
...well I'll try to figure out the "why" of it, as I know my limitations vs John Dorsey. But I preserve the right to go apeshit on him a couple years down the road.
...and will immediately bash Dorsey before I try to figure out why, and find reasons for optimism, and rationalize a lot...
Okay I admit that I'm not 100% objective. I am optimistic by nature.
But this is John Dorsey (not to mention the rest of this crew including Todd Haley), and (with Hue Fisher's voice obviously muffled), if they draft Josh Allen first overall (or fourth, for that matter), I can't go against them.
I can say, right now, that Baker Mayfield is irrefutably the best quarterback in this draft class, Sam Darnold is second, Allen is a huge projection...
Well there it is. Politics aside, Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in this draft class, period. Darnold has the potential to possibly eventually become almost as good maybe.
Rosen might be awesome...but might as well be out of the NFL in a couple years.
Allen could be great, but probably not like Mayfield. Frankly, Darnold looks better than he does, and if not for his concussions, Rosen is better than Allen as well.
...Except Allen has huge hands, and has played in adverse conditions, so forget all the foregoing...
Allen is just so charming, with that "boy next door" appeal, and that prototyical stature and grace. AND the strongest arm I mean what could go wrong?
Forget I said anything. Allen is the obvious choice!
Chuh!
Happily, John Dorsey wants to keep his job, and no doubt ignores Mel Kiper...
At least we hope so.
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