Sunday, April 15, 2018

Pre-Draft Hysteria, Dumb Analysis, Irrationality, and the Browns

This Pre-Draft stuff is turning into a badly-written episode of "Dallas".

The Browns are only pretending to like Sam Darnold to coax the Giants (who really do like him better) to trade up for him, so they can draft their secret favorite, Allen, second overall anyway.

Maybe the Browns should trade up to second overall so they can get Barkley and their top quarterback too since, you know obviously they want Barkley way more than that Chubb guy...

Oh yeah and let's make sure, and draft quarterbacks first and fourth overall!  Dilly-dilly!

It's really getting bizarre.  Everybody has their own unique crystal ball, or telepathy, or something, and are making disparate and massive assumptions about who wants who.

Evidently, Baker Mayfield is "nobody", and some goobers think he'll be the fifth quarterback off the board as Lamar Jackson is passing him up!!!

At least Mel Kiper says that he's different from other guys in that he doesn't try to "channel" each General Manager, but instead makes the picks he would make, given the needs of each team.

This is why he is pretty consistent from mock-to-mock.  He doesn't listen to rumors (and propaganda). I can respect that.

I can also respectfully suggest that he is often wrong.

I'm trying hard not to repeat myself again on Allen vs Mayfield (and Darnold, for that matter)...so I won't (it's hard for me, because it seems nobody is listening.  But then, I count my hits and realize that this is exactly true).

Kiper thinks they need a 3-technique defensive tackle now, though---wtf!?  Ogunjobi, Brantley, and Coley are all first and foremost penetrating defensive tackles!

At least the yokels who percieve an urgent need to replace future Hall of Famer Danny Shelton sometimes comprehend that he filled a different niche here.

Of course, at least one of these yokels think they need to replace Shelton at nose tackle oh god please stop...

Ah!  Something kinda new I can write about:

Gregg Williams is different from every other defensive coordinator.  While he does try to use the under/over tackle 4-3 as much as he can (this lines up the right DT up on the left guard's outside shoulder and has him attack the gap between this guy and the left tackle, while the Danny Shelton guy lines up in a zone between the center and right guard and attacks the right guard right in his face), he changes this up a lot.

If he has the personnel to do it, he'll go all Bud Carson with both "defensive tackles" seeking penetration on passing downs (that's at least 30% of the time).

Gregg Williams inheritted Danny Shelton, who was drafted to play in a 3-4 defense.  (At the time he was drafted, I immediately predicted that his knees and ankles would shorten his career...which they will).

Ogunjobi, Coley, and Brantley have played and can play the Danny Shelton role, and Rodney Mederfield was actually better at it than Shelton was, which is why he is still here and Danny aint.

Meder has been quite durable so far, and in 2018 will probably be used mostly in short yardage situations, and not so much on neutral downs.  He's kind of a specialist.  The other three defensive tackles are also powerful, and have better range, so as I said, they can play in the right guard's face and two-gap too.  All three will be better at it in their second/third NFL seasons as well.

On passing downs, Gregg tries to keep four down linemen on the field as well (as opposed to going 3-3 or 3-4 like the majority do).

He'll use explosive defensive ends inside if he can, and go 100% one-gap to generate his "base-line" passrush, physically overmatching the five offensive linemen, and often adding one small, fast blitzer.

The offensive linemen can't fool around here.  They have to use the fifth blocker on a defensive lineman, even then leaving three big uglies mano e mano on three real athletes who already have penetration and leverage on them.

Now, the given offense commonly uses one "third down" running back here, and a third wide receiver with one tight end ("11 personnel").

Williams' four powerful as well as fast dedicated passrushers overmatch the big uglies as-is, and that tight end probably has to hang in to help with Myles Garrett on the edge, and that scat-back has to hang around to check that smaller, faster blitzer who will otherwise come in unblocked, from who knows where.

In 2017, Joe Schobert played every single down, and I'm pretty sure that on these passing downs, he "spied" the running back and quarterback to intercept dumpoffs or scrambles (out of a strictly zone (human road block) coverage set to intercept shallow crossers from either side (the most common "hot reads" ok sorry I'm trying not to drown you here...)

Anyway, if you think the Browns need help at defensive tackle, Gregg Williams thinks you are funny.

However, this brings us back to the fourth overall pick here, and my "if he can" qualifyer on Gregg using defensive ends at defensive tackle on passing downs:

Right now, either Ogbah or Garrett can set up inside (check). But if they do, who sets up outside?  I mean, why bother?

Well okay, I can't kick Carl Nassib to the curb just yet.  He might become a good "Nascar" defensive tackle on passing downs (and keep one real edge-rusher outside).

But if you ask Gregg Williams who he wants at fourth overall, it's Bradley Chubb.  Over Fitzpatrick, and obviously over any cornerback in this draft.

Very smart people think Chubb is better than Myles Garrett.  He can move inside too.  Chubb would not only bump Ogbah into a rotational role immediately, but all but insure a consistent "Nascar" package when needed.

...okay you know that Ogbah can play inside too, right?

Let me head some of the ignorance off at the pass here:

Gregg Williams has rarely relied on the conventional edge-rush model defense which every 3-4 and 4-3 defense has, but that might have something to do with the fact that he has never had two dominating edge-rushers at the same time DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

Williams (unlike Hue Fisher) makes the most of what he has. If he has two top five edge-rushers, he will U S E them.

You think the Browns will draft a cornerback fourth overall in 2018, over Bradley or Chubb!?

Did you sleep all the way through free agency?  Were you oblivious to all the times opposing quarterbacks had 5-9 seconds to throw in 2017?  Are you blaming all that on the defensive backs?

You people...I mean this is football 101!!!

Every defensive coordinator (including 3-4 guys) dreams of a built-in 4-man passrush that will let him keep the rest of his defense in coverage.

NONE of them (including Carson or Williams) want to blitze all the time, because blitzes are risky.  

Ask Minnifield, or Hanford Dixon (and I'll quote Dixon here): "We can't cover for more than five seconds."

-Snap-snap- did you even notice the THREE elite cornerbacks John Dorsey just acquired (okay one is pencilled in at safety and they dumped McCourtey, but at worst the free safety starts at corner oh crap how dumb can you get stopitstopitstopit ohmmm....ohmmm....)

Dammit Gregg Williams has used the safety/linebacker hybrid, and to some extent even the deep "angel" safety, along with constant blitzes to compensate for deficient pressure on opposing quarterbacks! 

Chubb, combined with the players Gregg already has, would damn near give him his dream defense.

Fitzpatrick would help, but not nearly as much.  The (arguably) best cornerback in this draft might make a small difference...

I love Barkley too (as you know).  I've heard some pundits snort/scoff at the notion that he could ever compare to Ebineezer Bell, and herebye call them all idiots.

There's no contest between them physically: Barkley is superior in each and every test and dimension.  Barkley is also (IMO) smarter.

If not Chubb, Barkley works for me, and here's why:

High among the Browns projected needs is an outside receiver.  Ideally, he should be a big guy over 6' tall, with deep speed, the ability to separate, sure hands, and RAC capability.

...Well?  

While (as I have stipulated) this draft is extremely deep at running back, Laquon Barkley is more than just a running back.  He is a Swiss Army knife weapon, and a "playmaker".

Barkley has the intelligence and physical tools to play wide receiver in the NFL, even as a rookie.  

John Dorsey could use him anywhere, immediately.  He could play hell on opposing defensive coordinators.

Barkley and Duke looks like a two-back, but could turn into an empty backfield defacto 5-wide when the huddle breaks.  Or put Duke in a second slot, or Barkley next to Gordon outside.

Snicker-snort Barkley vs Bell?  Barkley is Bell on steroids!!! And the offensive coordinator who maxed Bell out works for the BROWNS now is any of this sinking in yet?

Barkley vs Chubb is a different story.  I prefer Chubb, slightly.  

A lot of these wild-guessing conclusion-leapers seem to think Giants are desperate for Eli's successor, and that it can be only one quarterback, and that they will cough up their second round pick...

I assume the majority of Giants fans think this is as assenine as I do.  Ernie Accorsi is long gone, but pundits don't get it.

The Giants are getting back two key wide receivers, and just signed the best left tackle available in free agency.  They're going for the Superbowl in 2018.  They might trade DOWN, but no way they trade UP.

The Giants could use either Chubb or Barkley (imo Chubb) immediately, take a stab at Eli's eventual successor in the second...

Nevermind, I bet they trade down here, and quarterbacks go one though three.

Ok ok I'm getting into the weeds here again, but generally speaking, quarterbacks devoid of their top two receivers tend to get underestimated by everybody but competant Coaches and GMs.

Dorsey might trade the first overall pick, but not with the Giants.  He probably can't trade it, and drafts his quarterback there.

He MIGHT trade down from 4th overall.

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