Friday, April 20, 2018

T-minus 6 Days to Browns Superbowl: Trade Down?

"The Browns could draft two quarterbacks."  This is quite possible, but the second one would come in the second round or lower.

Peter King must read my Blog too, as he makes a good case for this: Backup quarterbacks increase in value, even as they sit on the bench.

I'm also almost positive that Lord Insideous was forced to trade Jimmy Garopollo instead of Gramps Brady.

Speaking of the Sith Lord, Brinson thinks outside the box (like Bill does) in his latest mock draft:

He has the Pats trading numbers 23 and 30 in 2018 and their first round pick in 2019 for number four (and drafting Darnold).

There are a bunch of problems with this:

1: It presumes that the Browns won't draft Darnold first overall.  Like the rest of the flock, Brinson expects Dorsey to draft Josh Allen (because...you know, he's a Brown now, so he just lost about thirty IQ points right?)

2: That's not Bill.  Bill is one of those rare individuals who really can find good quarterbacks lower, and then develop them.

Tom Brady may indeed go down as the best quarterback in history, but a big part of that was the system he started in, and the offensive and defensive talent Bill surrounded him with.

Brady did spend time on the bench, until Drew Bledoe's horrific injury, so he wasn't learning "on the job", like every quarterback the Browns have drafted was forced to.

While Brady did a great job right out of the gate, he was not yet what he eventually evolved into.  When Bledsoe returned to health, a lot of "experts" assumed that he would be the starter again.

Instead, Bill traded Bledsoe to the Division Rival New York Jets (for everything but their first born children).  People called him an idiot.  "He's a sixth round pick!  He could still fall on his face!"  etc etc blah blah.

Brinson is even more off the mark in this particular quarterback draft class, in which most mocks have Lamar Jackson falling into the twenties or lower, Mason Rudolph would go much higher in 2017 or 2019, and there are three more guys with all the traits (Kyle Lauletta/Luke Falk/Mike White) that Bill could adopt as a young apprentice.

Lord Insideous doesn't listen to hyperbole, and cares more about a quarterback's floor than he does his cieling.  He has to be laughing (or maybe crying) at all this Branch Allenian bleating...but I digress:

The much much more realistic trade partner for 4th overall is the Bills.  I'm ignoring all your "noooo" screams, because I've dug deeper into what they could get (instead of Barkley or Chubb):

I looked over mocks by Birkett, Iver, Reuter, and Brinson, plus the latest Mayock position-rankings I could find.  (I can't get to Kiper's mock without signing up for something, and I'm not sure Mayock even does mock drafts).

Based on these four mock drafts, here are players who could be available from 11 to (around) 16 (note: I screened a little--the Browns don't need everything, obviously):

Rosen was there quite a bit, and Lamar Jackson on all four, just as a side-note.

Darius Guice is always there.  Denzel Ward is there on three, and Minkah Fitzpatrick on two.  McGlinchey is a constant (would be a mistake IMO).  Vea (the freak ginormous consensus-best by a wide margin defensive tackle) is a constant.

Kolton Miller.  Calvin Ridley.  Rashaun Evans (he's an inside linebacker but very impressive, especially in coverage).

Alexander (Mayock's second-ranked corner behind Ward) is universally there.

Mayock ranks wide receiver DJ Moore ahead of Ridley, and he's there on all of them.

Baker Mayfield is there at 12 in one of these mocks!!!

Mayfield aside, would any of these guys make as big an impact as Chubb or Barkley?

I can't say "of course not", because Minkah Fitzpatrick could!  

Others are close: Vea is a monster! I'd be sad to see Jamie Meder go, but binniss is binniss, and the best defensive tackle crew in the NFL is about as good as the best edge-combo, if you comprehend actual football.

But we're not talking about just that guy.  We're talking about that guy we get at 22 as well, as only part of this trade:

At 22, DE Marcus Davenport, Mayock's (and everybody else's) second-best edge-rusher, is there on all four.  Kolton Miller, Guice, CB Jaire Alexander (Mayock's third-ranked corner), are all generally still there, and LEFT tackle Conner Williams is there in all four mocks.

Sliders include Ridley, McGlinchey, and (oh yeah) Lamar Jackson.

I know most of you have your own favorites, and that's okay with me: Pick one from column A and one from column B, and compare these TWO players to Chubb or Barkley, ok?

And THINK!!! What if one of these two is Lamar Jackson?  

Try and stay with me here -snap-snap-:

That's not the whole trade yet, see?  Dorsey should probably get the third rounder they gave up for Tyrod back, or else the Bills' second rounder in 2019 (I'd bet on the latter).

Notes on Mayock's rankings:

I'm not certain about this, but I think Mayock leans towards immediate impact/proficiency over upside, and for offensive tackles doesn't separate left from right.

Nothing wrong with that.

He ranks the offensive tackles McGlinchey first, Kolton Miller second, Conner Williams third, and this Crosby guy fourth.

McGlinchey is the most experienced and refined (along with being a human bulldozer); Mayock expects him to start immediately (at right tackle).

Take this part of his rankings with a grain of salt: Miller and Williams are much better athletes, with higher upsides.  Rodney Okorafor is a factor here.  I'm not sure why Mayock prefers the other...

Oh I GET it now! It's the same thing as Baker Mayfield!

Mike played Pro football! He leans hard on psychology!  (Again: nothing wrong with that).

He downgrades Baker Mayfield because he questions his emotional maturity.  I believe he's downgrading Okorafor here for his lack of "nastiness"!

I admit that I haven't seen as much of Okorafor as Mike has, but clearly a lot of smart people agree with him, because analytically-speaking, this guy is terrific.

Mayock has been there/done that, and (with the exception of Ryan Leaf) I can't go toe-to-toe with these guys and declare them boobs...

...But I've been around some too---just in general:

I think that Mike is too pessimistic about Mayfield, who is still emerging from his punkdom, and has proven his adaptability.  He is unlikely to keep grabbing his crotch and flipping people off in the NFL.  

As for Okorafor, I think Mike is focussing too much on temperament, and not enough on skill.  A left tackle is not a guard, and his first and foremost job is protecting the quarterback.

Joe Thomas was never especially "nasty".  He was just a superior/smart athlete who could stifle the best edge-rushers in the NFL.

If you want to say he was "nasty", you're really talking about his ability to run around in space and smash linebackers and safeties into the turf.  Thomas mostly broke even with edge-rushers (ie WON), see?

Conner Williams has a similar critique on him, but Mayock ranks him third behind McGlinchey and Miller.

Miller is 6'9" and a former tight end as well...I guess Mayock has to give upside it's props where the "immediate starter" pickings are slim.

I personally prefer Williams because he is shorter, with a lower center of balance.  (As a defensive back, Mike doesn't grok LEVERAGE as well as, say, Ross Tucker).

But I digress:

I don't think McGlinchey is in the plans here, but Miller and Williams are.  McGlinchey may never play left tackle in the NFL.  And Dorsey needs a LEFT tackle, now or in 2019.

Ok back to quarterback:

I think Dorsey was about as clear as he could be about what he wants in a quarterback (but before I start this, remember he said all four of the top quarterbacks had big enough hands?  I do!  He said so! Honest!)

1: He has to be accurate.  Baker Mayfield is the most accurate.

2: (Dorsey was inarticulate here but I'll translate):  When the chips are down late in the game, when you need to rifle it into a tight window, you can.

Chris Pokorney, being PC, shifted off Mayfield for an obligatory nod to Rosen here, and shame on him: Nah that's still Mayfield.  Rosen is a close second, but Mayfield is still the sharpshooter here.

3: He has to have a strong arm.  Okay, Allen has the strongest arm, but:

Do any of these guys not have a strong arm?  For that matter, Mayfield appears to have the second-strongest!

4: He has to be a leader (partial translation elevate the play of the guys around him):

Mayfield again.

And I believe John Dorsey was being honest!  He just knew that everybody listening would interpret whatever he said however they wanted to, and delare Allen confirmed, or shift to Darnold, or Rosen---whatever.

His criterae also exactly matched Hue Jackson's (except for the end-of-game tight window hitting part)...

You GET this, right?  It's not about long bombs for Dorsey or me.

Why does nobody else get this?  Niether Manning is a long bomber! Rodgers isn't.  Brady/Brees aren't! Even Matt Flynn is no Dan Pastorini.  Big Ben kinda is, but has come to rely heavily on Bell and Brown to take short passes long why are we talking about JOSH ALLEN here killll meeee.....

Ohmmm...ohmmm.....okbye

No comments: