There's not much Brent Sobleski (Bleacher Report) says that I haven't. Brent is obviously unusually logical and rational too (that's not bragging. It's a sad commentary on what certain people have done to our educational system).
But I digress: Brent brings in a whole bunch of PFF metrics (and they go deeep). These include how many passes were dropped by receivers, number of attempts within five yards from scrimmage, and others that I haven't been aware of (thanks Brent!)
Brent did a great job of inserting the pretty flow-charts and graphs from PFF for you.
It's pretty clear which quarterback is at or near the bottom on all of them, and which one is on top (usually by a wide margin) on each and every one, but I've beaten that one to death as well.
Now, your Mel Kiper will say "statistics are for losers", others will call all that newfangled fancy number stuff a buncha hooey, and an old Coach like Charlie Weiss tells us that scouts look at numbers, while coaches study films (generalizing, of course).
Then there's that astronomical upside and potential (so stipulated), but a lot of these people are off the rails on an emotional "high" over this. They've lost all perspective.
Allen can make throws no other quarterback can make...which makes his arm talent less than ten percent better than SIX other quarterbacks in this draft class. In the NFL, he might make six or seven of those exceptional throws in a season.
Allen got the highest Wonderlick score, which is good, except the Wonderlick is a general test, and as I've repeated too often, some really smart quarterbacks prove incapable of making quick and correct decisions in a complex offense under pressure.
Like Brent Sobleski, I kinda root for Josh Allen because he just seems like a great person, but we're just not about to build a shrine for him...get it?
Today, after Ryan Leaf (I strongly suspect he's off the wagon btw) repeated his Darnold-should-try-to-avoid-the Browns crap, along with all the nebulous assumptions and false premises he's had plenty of time to think through, Ed McCaffery diplomatically countered him.
(McCaffery was a big wide receiver who won a couple Superbowls). "Easy Ed" didn't argue with Leaf during the interview, but systematically countered most of what Leaf said after the commercial break...point-by-point.
He never mentioned Leaf, and most of the listeners will never connect the dots, but it was obvious to me that Ed wouldn't let himself say what he wanted to say.
Fortunately, you have me to provide a translation! (just call me Subliminal Sodium Pentathol Man).
Here we go:
Leaf: Is nervous about Mayfield fitting in Cleveland, because he might not handle his first bad game (or the flack he'd catch) well, and Leaf himself identifies his own first "stinker" as the start of his decline...he did not cope with it well.
Me: Leaf was a rookie instastarter, and here projects Mayfield in a similar role despite Tyrod Taylor being here specifically to prevent that. Baker has never had a bad game since he started playing football.
McCafferey: You (LEAF) talk about a "culture", Baker Mayfield is the perfect guy to change the losing culture in the Browns organization. He's got that chip on his shoulder, and this "us against the world" mentality, and that's what you need to turn a team around.
Not knocking the other quarterbacks in this class, but none of them are like Mayfield, and he is exactly what is needed here.
Leaf: It's the culture there...
Easy Ed: Todd Haley just took over the offense, and look at his record. John Dorsey is in charge now, and a whole new personnel staff. They've got a good offensive line, added running back depth, have Gordon and Landry and Johnson and all those high draft picks and a top twenty starting quarterback...
Anything less than 8-8 would be a big disappointment with the talent on that roster.
(Ross Tucker) Wow! From 0-16 to 8-8, that's a big move!
Ed: Seriously if they don't win eight games it would be a big disappointment.
Translation: Why does Ryan Leaf think Hue Jackson is running the offense? How can he not see the talent on this team? He just about predicted three wins really? What's he smoking (again)?
(Again: I strongly suspect that Leaf was buzzed, and am positive he's not committed doing his best in his new profession...I mean he just...sucks.)
But enough puppy-kicking here:
I won't bother researching Jarvis Landry's 5-year 75 mil (47 mil guaranteed) contract here. It's obviously 15 mil/year on average, with the guaranteed portion and highest salaries front-loaded.
Business-wise, this was a
If you think Dorsey "overpaid" because Landry isn't a deep threat, or even like Duke Johnson with the ball in his hands, you don't get it.
Landry moves the chains when everybody KNOWS he's the target, and converting third downs matters!!!
But I digress: Business-wise, this was smart because Landry is durable, reliable, and his physical tools don't matter much. This guy might remain a "go-to" guy well into his thirties.
With the caps going up, Landry might look cheap as early as 2019, and by 2020 people might be eyeballing that contract and asking Dorsey what he wants in a trade for him.
This early extention also proves to players and their agents that John Dorsey doesn't screw around, and is trying to build a perennial contender here.
Landry himself seems happy to be here. Technically, based on his stats and franchise number, he could have gouged for more. He actually accepted a high-end reasonable deal here...but of course, it goes deeper.
If you can't handle "deep", you're reading the wrong Blog.
As Thomas Moore pointed out, Jarvis Landry will not catch 114 passes with the 2018 Cleveland Browns.
The Dolphins didn't feature Josh Gordon, Coleman, or Johnson. (For that matter, Ryan Tannehill was MIA as well).
Landry and his agent see that he's not going to be the big fish in the small pond in 2018, and took the best deal they could get, rather than risk free agency in 2019 with 60 catches for 700 yards...get it?
Both sides win here. The Browns just nailed down the most reliable receiver in the NFL into his geezerhood, and Landry locked up the best deal he could to close out his carreer.
Now, looking around the AFC North, I'm rooting for Ebineezer Bell, who is demanding around ten percent of the Steelers' cap money. Unfortunately, they'll probably just draft a really good running back in the second or third round, run Laveon into the ground, and write him off.
Still, Ebineezer has already jammed the Steelers up with his franchise tag. While in 2018 the Steelers can dominate, will Big Ben be back in 2019? Bell's replacement won't really replace him. Who replaces Big Ben?
While the 2018 Steelers remain the team to beat, the Ravens and Bengals can be had.
Andy Dalton was never an elite quarterback in the first place, and Joe Flacco sometimes is and sometimes aint, and is now a 6'6" geezer with a bad back in search of targets.
The Bengals are still coached by Marvin Lewis, and they just lost even more talent; Tyler Eifert is still there, but is prematurely old. Vontez Burfict is an awesome player, but should be in prison (in the psych ward and on thorazine), but for now his 4-game suspension for performance enhancing drugs will do.
The perennially overrated Ravens remain overrated.
While the Steelers can actually beat the Browns in a fair fight in 2018, the Browns already overmatch the Bengals and Ravens talent-wise.
If you're rolling your eyes or laughing, you are mentally impaired, and in need of deprogramming...much like Ryan Leaf. I don't care how badly you outnumber me: You are wrong, and I am right. You don't think with your brains. I do. And Easy Ed McCaffery too.
Ed McCaffery's dissertation on the Browns' 2018 (and Rodney Mayfieldfield) was a huge relief to me.
Easy Ed has ticked me off in the past with ignorant comments on the Browns, but obviously did more research since, and (I believe) was really pissed off when Ryan Leaf doubled down on his own hyper-ignorant statements from three weeks ago.
I suspect that (during the commercial break) Easy Ed did a couple internet searches to update, and tore Ryan Leaf a new one (except indirectly and diplomaticly).
DAMN! Maybe HE read this Blog!!!
Anyway, I'm not alone anymore. There is sentient life here!
To be
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