Great article by Doug Lesmerisis on how the Browns have a great shot at "getting it right" at quarterback this time.
He points out that the Browns haven't "missed" in the past, because the only quarterback they picked in the top ten was Tim Couch. They picked a couple in the twenties, then in the second round on down (where the failure rate is much, much higher).
Because the success rate is very high for those picked in the top ten.
Doug also cites PFF grades, and they stubbornly insist on calling this the best quarterback class since 2004, with all of the top four earning ratings over 90.
Doug says maybe they can't miss!
This flies in the face of conventional "wisdom", which persists in predicting that for each success, there is a failure (in the top five).
Until this article, I myself was mindlessly parroting this stuff, but it actually hasn't been true for some time:
There was Mariota and Winston. Goff and Wentz. And as Doug also points out, the only real busts have been Jamarcus Russell and (I forget who). (Remember, we're talking top TEN here, okay? Not top twenty three?)
I can back Doug up here:
Rules changes and changes in NFL offenses (notably run/pass options), have helped young quarterbacks succeed earlier than they did five or so years ago.
Our old freind Rob Chudzinski never gets the credit he deserves, because when Carolina drafted Cam Newton first overall, he brought the read-option to the NFL in a huge way to help Cam get off to a good start.
Chud's bold, gutsy move changed the NFL big-time. And that is one Head Coach that Haslam probably should not have fired.
This helped DeShaun Watson hit the ground running as a rookie.
Ironically, Hue Jackson, the "innovator", stayed in the cave (if not the tree) with Kizer last season, just like Chris Palmer did with Tim Couch (the poor doomed shoulda-been superstar dammit).
Oh yes: Lesmerisis doesn't skip over that part: The coaches need to help, and a good supporting cast is always desirable.
I don't need to bring Haley and the talent here up again, do I? That part is covered (except maybe left tackle...it will be downgraded from Big Joe, but how much and for how long remains to be seen).
Doug shares my fear of Josh Allen, but unlike me, he defers to the real experts, and verily there are a bunch of GMs, former GMs, ex-quarterbacks and coaches etc who love Allen a lot.
Doug is where I was a few years ago, keeping his ego in check, and assuming the real pros know better than he does.
I'm different now, because I've been right more often than they have been for the last few years.
I hated the Kizer pick. I loved Carson Wentz (but still defend that trade-down). I couldn't understand the Watson-bashing, and loved Mahomes too. When Goff had a tough time (under Jeff Fisher as a rookie), I laughed at people who called him a bust.
I was right, and a bunch of them were wrong, repeatedly. So I will say what Doug won't: Josh Allen has the second-most bust-potential of any quarterback in this class.
Rosen is on top due to his shoulder surgery and concussions (not to mention personality, questionable commitment, and lack of athleticism).
Allen has thrown snake-eyes vs elite competition all five times he's faced it (hat tip to Pat Kirwan). His completion percentage stagnated, while Matt Stafford's inproved throughout his college career (Stafford is the one in ten exception the Branch Allenians cite as proof that Allen can be more accurate in the NFL).
Hype aside, accuracy (and I mean ball-placement and touch accuracy), and anticipation are FAR, FAR more important in the NFL than size, arm strength, or even athleticism. And that's a fact. It's not debatable.
To be fair, I do remember that strong-arm maniac Phil Simms pointed out that (unlike all the other guys), Allen threw only 14 screen passes in 2017, which certainly suppressed his completion percentage.
Also, Jim Miller's telling us that at the Senior Bowl, he was only inaccurate throwing to his left, and saying it was footwork, and correctable...
Well okay I never said Allen would be a bust. I just said that Baker Mayfield is (and will REMAIN) better (already the most accurate, best touch and anticipation, great leadership skills, delivers in the crunch vs top competition, about as good as Allen on the white board -note to Mary Kay this has nothing to do with "processing speed", and Mayfield is the fastest "processor" in this class by a mile too!!!)
And by the way, that can't be taught. It has nothing to do with intelligence. Like speed or agility, you are just born with it...you know, like ACCURACY?
Like accuracy, practice and repetition can enhance it somewhat, but...
Okay look at minor and major league pitchers: They all have to be accurate first and formost. This is critical for one-trick pony flamethrowers, but if that's all they can do, they never reach the Bigs.
They need to be accurate with much slower change-ups, curve balls, etc as well. A whole bunch of guys crap out because they can't hit what they aim at with these more difficult pitches.
If your brain is "wired" right, you figure it out. You don't think about it. Your accuracy is built in, so you just shift your aiming point a little, and the ball goes more or less where you want it to go.
If you lack that hard wiring, you can't do it before your arm falls off.
"Processing speed" applies to boxing.
MKC and others are clueless about what that means. In the NFL, it's can you get to your third read (and throw the damn ball instantly) before a safe falls on you.
For a boxer, if you curl up in a ball and can't figure out where the other guy should be with your eyeballs bouncing around (like they do a lot)...
Well that's hard to describe, but if you "process" quickly, you move where you should, and punch where you should, until things get clear again, and you can get more aggressive...
Well I kinda missed again. I inadverdantly spoke up for Mayfield again (and also Sam Darnold). It's not really "processing speed", because it's largely instinctive.
...Like a running back who just "has a nose" for daylight. These guys break out of a dogpile, running for their lives, looking for targets, you see?
The "check-down" stuff is shot to hell, except they have an idea where to look for help. And they throw the damn ball the instant they see it---as they are running.
"Poor mechanics at times. Throws off back foot."
My experience gives me more insight than a lot of real experts. I won't elaborate, but I know more about instincts and improvising than they do, and evidently have a better idea of how often that matters for NFL quarterbacks.
Look at your "prototypes":
Dan Marino was awesome. No knock on him. But he never won a Superbowl.
Ditto Jim Kelly. And Drew Bledsoe.
Superbowl winners include Aaron Rodgers, Joe Montana, and Drew Brees.
Tom Brady and Matt Ryan aside, most Superbowl winners are guys who came though in the Chinese fire drill.
And that's what matters most, you see? It's not about arm-strength, height, general intelligence, good looks, likeability, charm, or any of that crap.
It's not about how good you are when things go right. It's about how good you are when things go wrong.
It's also about inspirational (not to mention automatic "it's on me" leadership (obviously ignored by the experts, let alone PFF---although PFF is off the hook; you simply can't quantify that).
Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in this class, and Sam Darnold the second best. Three seasons from now, I'll remind you I said this.
If Dorsey is dumb enough to draft Josh Allen instead, it might work out, kinda.
Given a year on the bench, an impressive set of weapons, and a really good defense, he could be really impressive...
At least until he meets really scary defenses in the playoffs, and has to come from behind...but what do I know?
Okay but Lesmerisis is correct: Even Josh Allen should be pretty good here! Maybe like Matt Ryan good even!
That's not Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees good or anything, but it doesn't suck, so...
Like I said: Three years from now, you won't remember that I told you that Mayfield and Darnold are both better than Allen, but I will remind you.
And if Dorsey picks Allen over either of these guys nine days from now, I'll be bashing him for it...
Nah not really: Dorsey has earned his creds, and I know my limitations. He could still be smarter than me. But I WILL remind you that IMO he screwed up and took the third-best quarterback in this draft.
Three years from now, Mayfield will be the best of these quarterbacks.
Doug Lesmerisis is right (except I think he likes Darnold over Mayfield), but that's close enough.
Tyrod Taylor is being dismissed here, probably prematurely. In one of my most recent posts, I said that he should be extended, right now, at 24 mil/year (guaranteed portion front-loaded) for as long a term as possible.
Tyrod Taylor is highly underrated. He is more than a "bridge" quarterback for a team with a strong supporting cast. Tyrod could become a "franchise" quarterback with this team..immediately.
The goobers who think that using both one and four on quarterbacks is a good idea need a brain transplant.
There is an issue with Baker Mayfield here:
Baker could stomach one year on the bench, but that's about it.
I grok Baker: He knows he's the real deal, and has proven it. He's spent time on the bench (due to NCAA rules) and watched an inferior quarterback lose when he could have won.
He has kicked ass at every level. He has never had a bad game. He is used to his whole team (offense and defense) counting on him. He KNOWS how good he is!
And he IS that good!
Look: Mayfield is likely to outperform Taylor in camp and in preseason. Tyrod isn't as accurate or decisive as Mayfield is.
Baker will feel as if he's earned starting status out of the gate. He intellectually understands that he isn't the athlete that Taylor is, and can't yet read defenses like he does, but in his heart, he already feels that he could do better.
Maybe he's right. But for Dorsey and the coaches, Mayfield's hyper-competitive, impatient attitude could become a problem (especially if he starts going public with it).
Darnold won't do this (nor would Allen, for that matter).
But dammit, do you want the best quarterback, or the more compliant one?
IMO, Dorsey should draft the best quarterback, period.
Last call okbye
Hello again. This just in from Peter King on Josh Allen vs pressure.
Peter thinks he can be taught to handle it better. Nobody seems to get this!
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