Sunday, April 29, 2018

John Dorsey Aiming at AFC North Title in 2018. Stop Laughing.

Some of the calls from Browns fans to NFL Radio are kind of emarrassing.  One outraged ass-hat can't stand that they didn't draft Saquon Barkley first overall.  He declared, definitively, that Mayfield would have been there at four.

And of course at four it should have been Chubb instead of Ward (I do hear him on that, but he needs to talk to Gregg Williams about that...and my money's on Williams duh.)

Anyway, do you have to bash every single pick?

I guess so.  But Mel Kiper gives them a B-minus.

Grading a draft as soon as it's over is rediculous, but Mel was pretty fair.

He skipped Genard Avery, however.  I found an NFL comparison for this guy:  James Harrison.

He's not an ideal fit for Gregg Williams' 4-3, but Gregg will find ways to use him, because he rushes the passer a lot like the younger Harrison did.  (Hopefully he's not a cheap shot artist though).

Harrison was freakishly strong for his size too.  Ross Tucker said the first time he saw Harrison, he and his teammates were watching game tapes to prep for a game.

Ross saw this guy "rag-doll" a 300 lb. guard "like he wasn't there". That was James Harrison.  "And we were on notice!!"

Avery is as strong or stronger, and is faster.  Harrison was about the same height, too.  Avery plays the same way--he's nasty and attacks.  

The scouting reports look at his height and project Avery inside, but that's a huge assumption.

John Dorsey has found Gregg Williams two more defensive ends who are complete players with passrush upsides.

But Williams doesn't care about labels.  He'll go ahead and blitze Avery from different spots on passing downs.  Nobody says all four guys have to put their hands in the dirt, or that they can't be a linebacker and three defensive ends.

Avery is a sneaky way to address edge-depth (and give Gregg Williams another monkey wrench).  I think this guy might make a big and immediate impact in 2018, and also develop into a really good middle linebacker.   Maybe even a strong side linebacker (tough to imagine having him try to cover 6'6" tight ends though).

If you liked another quarterback more than Mayfield, we'll see who was right in 3 years.

If you think Dorsey should have drafted Barkley first overall and crossed his fingers at fourth, you've got to be kidding.

I know I know, I myself thought he might do that, because I thought he might just like three quarterbacks about the same.

But they said what I've been saying for two weeks, before the pick:  Mayfield was the best quarterback in this class by far.

You can argue that somebody else has more potential or upside, but you can't (intelligently) deny that Mayfield is right now better than all the other guys (except maybe Rose...nah he was better than him too).

And Dorsey was certainly not the only GM who knew this: He had to make sure he got Mayfield.

Next, Saquon is a running back (okay swiss army knife weapon).  He is not as important as a quarterback.  Combine that with the fact that the Browns already had Hyde and Duke, and (oh yeah) one of the deepest running back classes in recent memory, and...well?

Still hammering the Chubb vs Ward thing I see.  That has to irritate Gregg Williams, who without a doubt asked Dorsey to favor the shut-down cornerback.

All my instincts agree with the Bradley Chubb crowd (check out my pre-draft posts).  But I've shut up now, and suggest you do the same.

I might have figured some of this out:

1: Gregg has never had a great defensive end passrushing duo.  In fact, Garrett/Ogbah might be the best he's ever had.  He's learned to generate pressure from the inside, and with "little fast guy" blitzes.

2: There were already talented young veterans on the roster with nice upside as passrushers (note that all are good vs the run).

3: Dorsey felt he could add to this in the draft, and that, by the time the dust settled on the defensive end cage-match, he'd have better depth behind Garrett and Ogbah.

4: That's in case of injury.  Otherwise, Gregg already has quality defensive ends he can rotate in to spell Garrett and Ogbah situationally.

5: Williams NEEDS to run tight man coverage more than he needs to get faster heat on quarterbacks.  He had to run soft coverages in 2017, and quarterbacks sliced and diced him underneath.

They usually got rid of the ball quickly.

Dorsey had already upgraded cornerback, and Ward is a true shut-down guy with world-class speed.

A Press corner's main job is to deny one receiver to that quarterback for (ideally) five seconds or longer, and second to nail him where he catches it.

With Hanford Dixon and Frank Minnifield, Marty Schottenheimer's Browns had two of these shut-down guys, and Clay Matthews got him 17.5 sacks.

There's more to it, of course.  These corners set up and use leverage to block in-cuts (instantly taking the quick-hitting, easily thrown routes off the table), and...okay too deep for now, but these guys don't grow on trees.

As it is, with all the new cornerbacks Dorsey has brought in, I don't know yet if any of them can do this.

Joe Haden no longer could, and wouldn't renegotiate.  That's why he's gone (and Gordon will eat his lunch). McCourty had a great season, but he wasn't a shut-down guy either.

If you only have one shut-down corner, it still helps a ton.  The deep safety can kind of ignore that receiver, giving him a better chance of messing up the first check-down...

Nevermind, but the shutdown corner eliminates the top receiver as a "hot read" on blitzes, and makes it easier for the defense to anticipate who the hot read is and blow him up (I generalize...you don't want more of this right now).

But I do think I understand why GREGG WILLIAMS preferred Ward to Chubb.  But then there's 

6: Antonio Brown.

7: Ward's speed.  Bradley Chubb can't run down wide receivers or running backs, and prevent long touchdowns.  Ward can.

There are probably more reasons I haven't thought of yet.  Go ask Gregg Williams.

As the guys on NFL Radio (and Kiper) are now finally starting to say, Gordon, Njoku, Landry, Johnson and Hyde (they do sometimes mention Corey Coleman btw) was scary pre-draft.

Callaway is similar to Coleman, except Coleman never got popped for drugs or credit card fraud or domestic abuse err...but he can/will be a great returner, immediately.

But anyway, Chubb the running back is now part of this, and I don't think my peeps appreciate this guy enough.  (It's okay they went Barkley-blind.  It was hard not to).

  • Nick Chubb was severely injured in 2015.  Although he had a good season in 2017, he was not back to 100% yet.


He's 5'11", 227 and clocked a 4.52 40, but also jumped 38.5 inches.  He benched 29 reps, 7.09 3-cone, 4.25 shuttle.

In any draft class not including Barkley, these are solid numbers for a running back his size; exceeding Pat Kirwan's "70" threshold for explosiveness (I think.  Can't remember the last part of his formula, but his bench and vertical has him over 67.5 already).

Anyway, he more or less came in second overall compared to Barkley.

Chubb is not like Barkley, however.  He is a vertical, between the tackles power runner.  I believe the Jamal Lewis comparison is on the money.  The Browns haven't had anybody like him since...well since they had Jamal Lewis himself!

Chubb averaged a paltry 6 YPC in 2017, and only caught four passes.  That's because he had to split time with Sony Michel, who caught all the passes (he's kinda like Duke Johnson).

Down the road, Chubb can probably become a good receiver out of the backfield, but only that (not out of the slot).  

He is fast enough to get outside, so he's not one-dimensional.

Nick Chubb isn't in Barkley's time zone as a playmaker, but can/does make big plays.  He is more dependable.  He  will smash, batter, and fall forward for 2.5 yards every time, and very rarely get caught in the backfield.

Nick Chubb is a STUD.  He will immediately challenge Carlos Hyde for playing time (I feel sorry for McNanoman: He thinks Nick might relegate Hyde to a short-yardage role.  Chubb owns that role out of the gate.  Pat...nevermind)

New can of worms: Carlos Hyde is a really good running back, but he prospered in Kyle Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme.

Todd Haley is running the offense now (thank god).  

I'd expect Todd to lean toward power/man (like Hue), but mix in a lot more zone-blocking than Hue ever did...despite having Crowell...dammit)

Chubb can do both, although he's best at power/man.

Haley has not only Njoku, but also Rodney DeValvefield at tight end (plus now Darren Fells: a real in-line blocker).

He'll be tempted to use two tight ends a lot.  Zone-runs would help this work a lot better...sorry too deep again...

Plus he can't bench Landry...

Dammit that still irks me!  I like Landry a lot, but not for THIS team!  And Dorsey made him the fifth-richest WR in the NFL!

Ah well...I assume Todd Haley had a voice in this, like Williams had a voice in Ward over Chubb, so I'll defer to him.  And try to figure out what he's up to.

The first clues are obvious: Landry is a "loss-leader" intended to attract more free agents, and he's as good as a tight end as a quarterback's security blanket.

It's not as "systematic" as a lot of fans think it is:

A quarterback is supposed to check down 1-2-3-4, but more often than not is in deep shit and scrambling before he gets past 2, and he's looking for anybody, see?

A Jarvis Landry comes in mighty handy here, since every quarterback he's ever had looks for him first (and they know where to look for him).

I swear, I don't know how Jarvis does it.  He's small, and far from a great athlete.  But somehow, he's always open!

I would not have traded for or extended Landry (for that much money anyway), but I do grok their logic.  In 3 years, I'll have a chance to do yet another "I was right and you were wrong" dance, and hope I can't.

As-is, Landry's presence dictates a 3-WR base offense, because if you think Landry can be as effective outside, you are dead wrong.

3-wide in turn dictates one running back, and one tight end.

They just paid a possession slot guy a fortune to minimize two tight end, two-back, and--oknevermind:

In Haley I trust.  In Williams I trust.  In Jackson I don't trust, but that's irrelevant now (whew!)

I went kinda nuts in my last post, all but predicting an AFC North Title in 2018.  I need to moderate that now:

The Steelers remain a great team.

So they might manage to win the title again, since they should sweep the Ravens and Bengals, and the referees can be trusted to award them a win over the Browns.

But Dorsey is clearly going for all the marbles right now (see last post), and I have to think he knows what he's doing here.

Look: It goes without saying that he has a "year of grace", and won't get fired after one year.  But he's been aggressive as hell with veteran free agents, he drafted a Pro-ready (you'll just have to trust me on this one) quarterback, signed a very solid veteran dual-threat playoff quarterback, and bypassed "upside" for immediate impact throughout the rest of the draft.

And look (again): The 2018 Browns are the most talented team in the AFC North.

Don't fall for the hype! Laveon Bell is awesome so stipulated.  So is Antonio Brown! AND that Smith-Shuster guy! AND Big Ben...kinda.

But the Browns offensive line, tight ends, and defense are better.  In 2017, the Browns had them in both games (despite Hue Jackson's atrocious playcalling and his boy Kizer at QB).

The Cleveland Browns WERE the most talented team in the AFC North in 2017.  They have two real quarterbacks now, and have also stretched their talent-lead.

In game one, we'll see Denzel Ward on Antonio Brown.  We'll see Tyrod Taylor, Josh Gordon oknevermind...just keep laughing.

You know those eye-rolls and snorts are what shrinks call a "Pavlovian response", right?  Then there's "Stockholm Syndrome"---

Todd Haley is on our side now. Is his replacement as good as he was?  Think he can tip Gregg Williams off to a thing or two?  

Let's compare Kizer to Taylor (or Mayfield, for that matter).  

It's a whole new ballgame in 2018.  0-16 is irrelevant because Hue Jackson can't engineer defeats anymore.

Snicker-snort I'm with Dorsey: 0-16 is irrelevant.  Talent and coaching are relevant.  The 2018 Browns can win the AFC North.

They're the most talented team, and they have quarterbackS now.

Stand by.










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