It's nice to hear the great GM Mike Holmgren assure us that John Dorsey will fix the Browns. However, like Pat Kirwan, he obviously has no idea whatsoever about what John DePodesta really does (or that Dorsey didn't fire him).
Buzzwords like "moneyball" and "analytics" are just labels. You need to forget them, and start from scratch.
Paul DePodesta is a business consultant and efficiency expert. He does create and use computer programs to help him, but there's a lot more to it. DePodesta is frankly smarter than all these people who call what he does "moneyball", and seem to think that Sashi Brown is him.
DePodesta was the Chief Strategy Officer. He was (and possibly still is, at least partly) responsible for the long-term planning. He was the guy who wanted to trade down and build the team first.
The kneejerk reaction to that is "So how's that working out?"
Well, it's working out just fine, since the Browns didn't expect to contend until 2019 anyway. Since Wentz wouldn't have had even the supporting cast the 2017/18 Browns did have, since some of those players were here as a result of that trade, and subsequent trades off it.
Since the Browns are loaded with both money and draft picks in perhaps the deepest quarterback class in 15 years, and also a deep free agent group. Since the rest of the team IS now mostly built, waiting for the quarterback to get behind the wheel.
The first thing John Dorsey probably said to DePodesta was "Thank you thank you thank you!" So quit blurting and start thinking.
Analytics in player evaluations mirror judgements made by professional scouts. They merely attach numbers and values to various factors.
Those of you familiar with Football Outsiders, Number Fire, and PFF can see this, and their numbers really do nail players down in detail. I guarantee you that every Front Office subscribes to and uses their information a lot.
"No more analytics"? When a defensive coordinator figures out that a quarterback is ineffective on shorter routes to the left side, is useless if forced to scramble left, etc., he is analyzing. Mike Holmgren did a lot of it as a Coach.
Analytics uses numbers instead of eyeballs, and renders the physical core of the player objectively. Human beings are emotional and subjective. The best talent scouts will make mistakes when they fall in love with a player.
The best example I can think of is a certain Browns GM who tried to trade most of two draft classes to move up for RG3.
...🤔
This is happening as we speak with Josh Allen. They're seeing those amazing, perfect touchdown passes in the Senior Bowl and swooning. Further, they're repeating eachother, and the echos are "whipping the mob into a frenzy".
But the numbers say he completes 53-57% of his passes. The numbers count the drops, the throwaways, etc so don't even try it. The deeper numbers even tell you how many passes he threw behind receivers, or to the wrong shoulder or hip!
As you are seeing, the "football people" are overlooking all of this because Allen does, sometimes, make very impressive plays that almost nobody else can. (Gotta admit, that arm of his is spectacular, and he can fire it at SEVENTY EIGHT MPH, which is TWENTY PLUS mph faster than the average pro).
However, that number, and those long bombs, are far less important than accuracy (including deep accuracy)...and yes, the numbers say accurate quarterbacks win more than inaccurate ones with bigger arms.
Analytics in evaluating players is a key tool which, prior to PFF, Numberfire etc. was done by each team's "quality control" coach, as they reviewed films of upcoming opponents with a note pad, looking for weaknesses and tendancies.
The fact that analytics does the same thing, except mathematically, doesn't invalidate it whatsoever.
So where does this prejudice against "moneyball" come from?
Ignorance, for one thing. But then, there's the legitimate objections:
Numbers can't identify character, guts, intelligence, intincts, discipline, or dedication.
Irrelevant. They never tried to. That will always remain up to human beings to figure out.
These "old guard" football people have reacted like insecure children to a tool which more efficiently and reliably does exactly what they do in evaluating a players' physical performance.
Any team which relies exclusively on numbers in talent evaluation will fail...but the Browns didn't do that.
Beyond talent evaluation, analytics calculates market values for players, suggests contract lengths and terms based on age, durability, and scheme fits.
Lord Insideous (Bill Belichick) claims not to know what analytics even is, but he's a human calculator, and personifies the concept.
While other teams retain and overpay their stars past their primes (and stifle young, emerging talent), Bill lets the older guys go--trading them when possible--and lets his younger and cheaper players play.
He saves money by signing "problem" players (at a discount) and declining superstars (at a discount).
This can be called "analytics", or uncommon sense. The labels don't matter to me, but it's all the same thing, whether your last name is DePodesta or Belichick.
By the way, I think that Belichick intended to TRADE Saint Tom and re-sign Jimmy G, but was overridden by Brady/Kraft. And I think he was out of his mind with frustration when he took the 49ers first offer and dealt him cheap. (I get it. Insane bosses make me insane too!)
But I digress (or not): That is, the numbers say that Tom Brady is in the mix for the best quarterback ever. They also say that he is in his 40s. His bones are growing more brittle, his joints are eroding, he will heal more slowly, and in a nutshell is in decline.
Bill isn't superstitious. He's analytical. Robert Kraft is not.
Now, John Dorsey is a great judge of talent, but (I believe) will exploit analytics as much as he can for his base-line and initial player rankings (DePodesta will have suggested this).
The numbers will be screaming Baker Mayfield, of course, but ignore his height and character.
Kirk Cousins has to be Dorsey's prime target here. If he succeeds in signing Cousins, it pretty much takes Mayfield off the table. You don't draft a QB first or fourth overall to park him on the bench for four or more seasons.
As DePodesta (you know that discredited "moneyball" guy) has already told Dorsey, this would make the most of this specific free agent class and draft.
With any veteran free agent other than Cousins (or Keenum), he can't count on elite production, so he has to strongly consider using the first or fourth overall pick on a quarterback.
With Cousins or Keenum, in this draft, he can use (or trade) those top picks to nab elite non-quarterbacks and still nab a Falk or White in the second or low first round (to collect splinters behind Kizer and learn like Rodgers, Holcomb, Sipe etc did).
Call it "analytics" if you want, but it's really just being smart.
Imagine that the Browns have Kirk Cousins in the bank.
Well, NOW Dorsey can trade down from first overall.
The teams wanting to move up are all looking for quarterbacks. None of them will draft Saquon Barkley.
The Giants or Colts might draft Barkley. Dorsey has to be prepared to risk losing him if he trades down, but DePodesta has pointed out to him that Guidon (et al) are studs and will be available lower.
DePodesta will be urging him to accept 2019 or even 2020 draft picks to facilitate trades. This is because the future picks these teams cough up are one or two rounds higher than they would be in the current draft (as GMs trying to save their jobs can't think long-term).
Super-DB Minkah Fitzpatrick is in the bag here, and Barkley is more likely than not (if I'm right about Dorsey's likely targets).
No telling what the bounty of draft picks would be, but "no more analytics" Holmgren has already assured you that John Dorsey will pick the right players.
I'm sick of articles dumping icewater on Kirk Cousins' willingness to sign with the Browns. They zero in on Hue Jackson and ignore Todd Haley and the talent extant on this team. They also assume that Cousins is as dumb as these writers are.
This "Browns willingness to pay for Cousins is unlikely given their draft status" is ignorant too. Dorsey (after bashing "previous regime" for not drafting "real players") said that the AFC North title was his target for 2018.
Political disengenuousness aside, Dorsey saw that this was a realistic goal, based on the talent he inheritted, if he had a QUARTERBACK DO YOU U N D E R S T A N D?
KIRK COUSINS will see that too!
Jeez "who's he going to thow to?" Josh Gordon! Coleman, Johnson, Njoku, and whoever Dorsey drafts or signs!!!
"How can he do anything from flat on his back?" WTF are you talking about? Now you think Cousins will be hesitant and indecisive and take six second sacks because Kizer (et al) did? You think this offensive line sucks!?! Are you out of your fkng mind?
I recently heard Kirk Cousins interviewed. I think he is sentient.
There's at least a 50/50 chance Dorsey will sign him.
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