Jeff Risdon did one which at first I thought was idiotic, but actually wasn't.
He's got Mayfield first overall, and Guard Quenton Nelson fourth overall. On the surface, that's insane, but Jeff explains that Joel Bitonio or Shon Coleman could then move to left tackle when Joe Thomas retires.
Jeff thinks that Nelson could be the best overall player in this draft, and I'm not yet qualified to disagree.
Still, I think Jeff is making too many assumptions about Bitonio's ability to play the hot corner in the NFL. He's 6'4" and would have issues with speed rushers.
Naturally, nobody can match Joe Thomas, but just to be a mediocre right tackle, you have to be a special athlete.
Bitonio and Coleman both played left tackle in college, so it's not new to them. Shon Coleman actually projects better there (Jeff would put Bitonio at right tackle in that case).
Also, there's Roderick Johnson, who Jeff and everybody else has already written off due to his being humiliated by fellow rookie Myles Garrett before hitting IR in preseason. Man, you people really need to give these rookies a chance!
Jeff's other picks are a big possession receiver at 33, then a tall cornerback, then a LT Jamarco Jones out of Ohio State as "insurance in case Coleman doesn't work out".
Also, there's Roderick Johnson, who Jeff and everybody else has already written off due to his being humiliated by fellow rookie Myles Garrett before hitting IR in preseason. Man, you people really need to give these rookies a chance!
Jeff's other picks are a big possession receiver at 33, then a tall cornerback, then a LT Jamarco Jones out of Ohio State as "insurance in case Coleman doesn't work out".
In the third it's running back Sony Micheal, who Jeff says would be a first rounder in most drafts (I don't know him yet either).
That's an "analytics" thing, by the way. The fact is, a whole bunch of second to fourth round running backs have instant success in the NFL, and this draft is especially deep at running back.
Us "Moneyball" "metrics" guys like exploiting situations like this to get a bigger bang for our bucks and draft picks.
You know I want LaQuan Barkley in spite of this, but I can certainly see the logic in addressing other, harder to find, positions first in this situation.
Per Risdon and the consensus, left tackle is slim pickins in the 2018 draft. Jeff picks a guard because he doesn't feel that any of the left tackles even rate a first round grade (and I don't know enough to argue with that yet either).
Left tackles also rarely come from outside the first round in general, unless they're converted tight ends, and have time to develop.
What I've heard from the real experts so far is that quarterback, running back, and cornerback are especially deep in 2018, wide receiver is pretty good, and left tackles and edge-rushers are really shallow (I don't know about other positions yet).
Left tackle is indeed a real issue for the Browns long-term. You can't find those guys in free agency or the second round, and I need to remind Jeff, it's rare that a left guard or right tackle moves to left tackle and grades out in the top 16, no matter how good they were at their old positions.
Another "analytics" thing is leaning on the law of averages, and making the most of what you've got. I wouldn't do what Jeff suggested 4th overall.
As I posted yesterday, I think Baker Mayfield will be drafted after Darnold, and (at least) Rosen or Allen, so if he's the target, he could be drafted fourth. Am I 100% sure? No. And this could change.
This is the year I make the exception to the analytical cheap running back rule, because, well, if you could make sure you could instantly have a David Johnson or Laveon Belle, wouldn't you?
Nevermind where those guys were drafted, or Kamara, or Hunt: this is about making sure, you see? That's part ofcommon sense analytics too.
Since I'm spitballin here, I'm remembering how Baker Mayfield adapted/performed in Senior Bowl practices, and what my real experts said about him:
Jim Miller said he couldn't find any flaws in his mechanics at all, including dropping back from center. He was decisive and threw ON TIME AND WITH ANTICIPATION. "He looks like a pro already".
Well, I got to thinking about Gramps McCown again. We're talking about Foles, Keenum, Taylor, McCarron etc. and about inflated contracts.
But Josh is THE PERFECT bridge quarterback, because he adopts all the younger guys and does all he can to help them learn the ropes. This is his nature, and he's been like that for a long time.
He'd be happy to come back to Hue Jackson and Cleveland, especially with Josh Gordon back on board,
McCown performed at an elite level for the Jets last season, and even stayed healthy for awhile before hitting IR again as usual. (He's always had good-to-great stats, but rarely WON like that!).
The people who say Baker Mayfield needs a year or two on the bench are wrong. This is based exclusively on his Air-Raid offense and conference (an absolute "bust"-farm!)
But Mayfield is different. He is the exception to that rule.
If the Browns draft Mayfield, they should take Josh McCown very seriously, because this kid will be "ready" in 2018.
Between McCown and Mayfield would beJosh Allen DeShone Kizer. If Josh goes down in game 3, Kizer steps in. Let's see what that offseason processing his experience does for him. He will be better, for sure. Maybe even enough better to win some games.
If not, give Mayfield his shot.
Todd Haley will have a "Mayfield package" (which Hue Fisher would of course not have).
And Josh would adopt Kizer as well! What if McCown had started for the Browns last season instead of Kizer?
Oh shut tf up they would have won some games! And when Josh got hurt, KIZER might have been better than he was when Hue Lewis tossed him under the bus starting game one!
While John Dorsey classlessly lied about the talent Sashi Brown had given Hue Jackson, I'm still glad he (and Haley) are here now, and that Hue has zero leverage left.
Dorsey is a former player and a "football guy". Sashi Brown was really niether. He couldn't butt heads with Hue and win. Dorsey can and will.
Dorsey would probably have been on board with drafting Kizer in the second round last season, but behind closed doors would have been in his face over starting him in game one (it should have been Kevin Hogan, who clearly outperformed everybody else).
Sashi lacked this leverage.
We're pretty certain that the trade-down from Wentz was a Sashi thing, but I'm telling you, Hue signed off on it (and the results on the Browns side have yet to be totalled up).
I can all but assure you that Hue preferred DeShone Kizer over DeShaun Watson last season, and Sashi made the most of it.
Because of what Sashi Brown did (and bad coaching by Hue), John Dorsey's dreams have come true with a roster packed with emerging talent, 111 mil in cap space, the first and fourth overall picks and six in the top 65, in the deepest quarterback draft and free agent classes in recent memory.
I've been hammering Hue pretty hard here, but once again, it took a lot for him to hand the offensive keys over to Todd Haley even if, in reality, he was forced to do so.
He's not a dumb guy. He might evolve into a great Head Coach off this. I hope so, because I really like him.
I'm just glad we're all agreed on Mayfield and Barkley.
Per Risdon and the consensus, left tackle is slim pickins in the 2018 draft. Jeff picks a guard because he doesn't feel that any of the left tackles even rate a first round grade (and I don't know enough to argue with that yet either).
Left tackles also rarely come from outside the first round in general, unless they're converted tight ends, and have time to develop.
What I've heard from the real experts so far is that quarterback, running back, and cornerback are especially deep in 2018, wide receiver is pretty good, and left tackles and edge-rushers are really shallow (I don't know about other positions yet).
Left tackle is indeed a real issue for the Browns long-term. You can't find those guys in free agency or the second round, and I need to remind Jeff, it's rare that a left guard or right tackle moves to left tackle and grades out in the top 16, no matter how good they were at their old positions.
Another "analytics" thing is leaning on the law of averages, and making the most of what you've got. I wouldn't do what Jeff suggested 4th overall.
As I posted yesterday, I think Baker Mayfield will be drafted after Darnold, and (at least) Rosen or Allen, so if he's the target, he could be drafted fourth. Am I 100% sure? No. And this could change.
This is the year I make the exception to the analytical cheap running back rule, because, well, if you could make sure you could instantly have a David Johnson or Laveon Belle, wouldn't you?
Nevermind where those guys were drafted, or Kamara, or Hunt: this is about making sure, you see? That's part of
Since I'm spitballin here, I'm remembering how Baker Mayfield adapted/performed in Senior Bowl practices, and what my real experts said about him:
Jim Miller said he couldn't find any flaws in his mechanics at all, including dropping back from center. He was decisive and threw ON TIME AND WITH ANTICIPATION. "He looks like a pro already".
Well, I got to thinking about Gramps McCown again. We're talking about Foles, Keenum, Taylor, McCarron etc. and about inflated contracts.
But Josh is THE PERFECT bridge quarterback, because he adopts all the younger guys and does all he can to help them learn the ropes. This is his nature, and he's been like that for a long time.
He'd be happy to come back to Hue Jackson and Cleveland, especially with Josh Gordon back on board,
McCown performed at an elite level for the Jets last season, and even stayed healthy for awhile before hitting IR again as usual. (He's always had good-to-great stats, but rarely WON like that!).
The people who say Baker Mayfield needs a year or two on the bench are wrong. This is based exclusively on his Air-Raid offense and conference (an absolute "bust"-farm!)
But Mayfield is different. He is the exception to that rule.
If the Browns draft Mayfield, they should take Josh McCown very seriously, because this kid will be "ready" in 2018.
Between McCown and Mayfield would be
If not, give Mayfield his shot.
Todd Haley will have a "Mayfield package" (which Hue Fisher would of course not have).
And Josh would adopt Kizer as well! What if McCown had started for the Browns last season instead of Kizer?
Oh shut tf up they would have won some games! And when Josh got hurt, KIZER might have been better than he was when Hue Lewis tossed him under the bus starting game one!
While John Dorsey classlessly lied about the talent Sashi Brown had given Hue Jackson, I'm still glad he (and Haley) are here now, and that Hue has zero leverage left.
Dorsey is a former player and a "football guy". Sashi Brown was really niether. He couldn't butt heads with Hue and win. Dorsey can and will.
Dorsey would probably have been on board with drafting Kizer in the second round last season, but behind closed doors would have been in his face over starting him in game one (it should have been Kevin Hogan, who clearly outperformed everybody else).
Sashi lacked this leverage.
We're pretty certain that the trade-down from Wentz was a Sashi thing, but I'm telling you, Hue signed off on it (and the results on the Browns side have yet to be totalled up).
I can all but assure you that Hue preferred DeShone Kizer over DeShaun Watson last season, and Sashi made the most of it.
Because of what Sashi Brown did (and bad coaching by Hue), John Dorsey's dreams have come true with a roster packed with emerging talent, 111 mil in cap space, the first and fourth overall picks and six in the top 65, in the deepest quarterback draft and free agent classes in recent memory.
I've been hammering Hue pretty hard here, but once again, it took a lot for him to hand the offensive keys over to Todd Haley even if, in reality, he was forced to do so.
He's not a dumb guy. He might evolve into a great Head Coach off this. I hope so, because I really like him.
I'm just glad we're all agreed on Mayfield and Barkley.
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