Monday, February 12, 2018

Mayfield, Barkley, Uncommon Sense, and the Browns

I was going to continue my series setting the record straight, but this just came up.  My new favorite writer, Randy Gurzi, wants you to know that PFF concurs with Randy and me that Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback in this draft by a significant margin.

Randy and I feel we're in Bizzarro World when Draft Mockers are projecting Josh Allen at first overall, and treating Mayfield like day old leftovers.

A lot of "football guys" (not including Dorsey or McGloughan) will point to the SEC and Air Raid stuff (along with Mayfield's height).  And then some will make fun of analytics.

As Randy points out, Mayfield was the best quarterback under pressure, still rating triple digits.  This is as a passer,  and doesn't include running yards.  

Check out Randy's article for more specs, like Mayfield earned their highest overall grades in the last two years, three of the highest in the last six, etc.  

Johnny Manziel seems to be the popular comparison for Baker Mayfield, but Kurt Warner, who won a Superbowl under Todd Haley (greatest show on turf), works better.

Warner was around 15/8ths inches taller (oh no!), but Mayfield has a stronger arm and is a dual threat.  I have to compare these two because Warner is the only guy I could find with that kind of accuracy.

No I take that back.  Aaron Rodgers actually works better.  He is 1.5 inches taller, but otherwise matches Mayfield like a clone...

Except for personalities, anyway....if Warner or Rodgers were 1.5 inches shorter, would you want them today?  

Ok well what about Brees and Wilson?  Wilson isn't as accurate, but is more athletic (and is two inches shorter).  Brees is actually very similar to Mayfield (except slightly shorter).

None of these guys are the "fiery", emotional kind of guys that Mayfield is.  I don't know if that means anything, but have to stipulate that he is different is all.  Emotionally, he's more like Brady.

Martin McConnell has listed several running back options for the Browns.  Naturally Barkley is on top, and Guice is second.  Martin thinks Guice won't make it out of the first round, and I can't disagree.

If the Browns don't draft Barkley in the top  4-6, they could well be looking at Martin's list from number three on down.

Kudos to Martin for filtering out little shrimps and listing potential workhorses.  He gets that the Browns already have Duke Johnson and Dayes.

Now one more time, I have to respond to the analytics-bashers who have talked themselves into thinking that it failed here:

Tretter, Zeitler, McCourty, Boddy-Calhoun, Kindred, Garrett, Peppers, Ogunjobi, Brantley, Ogbah, Shon Coleman, Corey Coleman, Drango, Njoku, DeValve, Burgess, Dayes, and several sleepers you haven't noticed yet (like cornerbacks Wilson and Jordan).

Analytics ignored those who wanted them to trade Josh Gordon for a bag of Doritos, keep Joe Haden at any price no matter what...it got Joel Bitonio paid long-term, and (unfortunately due to the Head Coach they were stuck with) to treat Crowell as they have.

And TRUST ME here:  No fknng WAY analytics wanted DeShone Kizer, even in the second round!!!  I guarantee you, that was all Hue Jackson!

What you people call "analytics" has not been discredited just because Sashi Brown was fired to make room for John Dorsey.  The team Brown built (along with the cap space and draft picks Dorsey inherits from him) is pretty damn good.

...well except for quarterback and WR depth...and cornerbacks and...

Shut up!  The massive cap room and surplus high draft picks were part of the fkng plan as well!!!

And they KNEW Cousins would kick loose, along with two Minnesota quarterbacks, and guys like McCarron.  

DePodesta knew that a bunch of veteran corners would shake loose in 2018, and that this quarterback class would be really good and really deep (ditto cornerback, running back, and edge-rusher).

If you are falling for this anti-analytical propaganda, you are a fool, and I will prove it:

Three years from now, see how the players I listed are doing, along with whatever becomes of this year's fourth overall pick, and the Eagles 2019 second round pick.

In my opinion, Mayfield and Barkley are the obvious top two picks.  I have daydreams about Keenum, but I'll settle for McCarron or McCown as the bridge guy, because these salaries are out of hand.

Josh McCown could actually steal this show in 2018!  Until he gets injured, he can WIN!  Baker Mayfield is not a "project", either.  His learning speed is outlandish, and his "processing speed" (as far as it can be proven in his college offense) is off the charts.

DeShone Kizer can't be (reasonably) judged by his rookie season, so he should be second in line to the new veteran starter (at least until he falls on his face again).

If it's Mayfield, McCown works.  Mayfield learns very fast, and is who he is.  I still think Kizer has a shot in year two (especially if he has McCown in his ear), and he's durable.

...He's at LEAST Josh Allen, right?

Anyway I'll be advising John to ignore anything Hue says and just draft Mayfield and Barkley and settle for Saint McCown as the bridge guy if neccessary.

Hopefully, they will fix the glitch which gives me all those "could not be delivered" messages soon.

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