Saturday, February 17, 2018

QBs, Strategery, Barkley, and the Browns

First, I have to include this link to Thomas Moore, because he said nobody but Hue Jackson thinks AJ McCarron is a starting quarterback.

While that's a little harsh (even for me), I'm glad Dorsey, Haley, and a bunch of other sane people are here to curb Hue's enthusiasm.

Tom also thinks Nick Foles is a "system" quarterback, but I saw the Superbowl, and he ran pretty much the same offense as Carson Wentz did.

I was warming up to the McCarron as bridge idea, until Terry Pluto et al started talking about Brinks trucks oh puh-LEEZ!  Really?  For McCarron?  

AJ won two National Championships yes, but those Alabama teams had dominating defenses and running games.  AJ was labeled a game-manager, and that's about what he did in his stint starting for Hue and the Bengals.

So Tom is probably right that AJ is no franchise quarterback, but wrong to say he's not a starter in the NFL.

I personally think the projections for McCarron's payday are irrationally inflated.  There are only thirty two teams, and only eight or ten need a starting quarterback.  Now you have Cousins, possibly Foles, probably Taylor, and two Vikings quarterbacks, every one of which has proven a lot more than McCarron has.

Then you've got the consensus-deepest quarterback draft class in fifteen years, with as many as five projected to go in the first round.

Terry et al say that AJ doesn't want to be a bridge quarterback, but that doesn't matter.  No team in the NFL (thank God Hue isn't in charge here) will pay him starter money long-term.

Kirk Cousins is a different matter.  Now that Jimmy G signed that huge deal in San Fran, and some people are talking over 30 mil for him, the (smart/knowlegable) insiders on NFL Radio are checking Kirk out more closely:

Like McGloughan said, Cousins is good, but not special (read: not worth that much money).  Dorsey will probably fold his cards, as would I.  Believe it or not, he's not that desperate.

Hard to believe that Case Keenum could be replaced after what he did, but then he's as short as Baker Mayfield, so...

No I get it: Bridgewater was kicking ass then Bradford kicked ass so you've got to give his surrounding talent, coaching, and awesome defense a lot of credit for his success.

While he certainly would have done better than Kizer in 2017, Keenum wouldn't have come anywhere near what he did with that Vikings team.

He could be like McCarron (except probably ahead of him in line): No Brinks trucks.

Oh they'll get overpaid, for sure!  But everybody is using the Mike Glennon contract as a baseline and factoring in inflation to come up with 22-24 mil...for bridge quarterbacks.

They write as if there are 100 teams and they all need quarterbacks.  That's not correct.

The Browns most likely bridge guys are Taylor, McCarron, and (preferably if possible) Keenum...at a bridge quarterback price.

As for the draftable quarterbacks, Mike Mayock ranks Baker Mayfield fourth (Allen second), and Bucky Brooks says he's a second round talent who can succeed with enough support.

Unlike Buzzkill Bill Polian I, like Baker Mayfield, respect their opinions (especially Mayock's).  But like Mayfield did in twitter with Brooks, I repectfully disagree.

Way, way too much is being made of this "maturity" stuff.  Now, the fact that he responded to a guy who evaluated him is being blown up!

I get that it's a concern for coaches and GMs if a guy has tin ears and gets distracted like that, but I think Mayfield did this on purpose as a "campaign" ploy.

Everybody on NFL Radio talked about Mayfield tweeting back, and about him, and the points he made.  One of these was that last season, DeShaun Watson was dissed as well...and now people are comparing Mayfield to Watson.

In this mock draft, Chris Rollings has the Browns drafting Barkley first and Mayfield fourth.  

Everybody else is saying "the Browns must draft a quarterback first overall".  That's the word from Myopia.

Not at all.  Not in this particular draft, especially if they do like Mayfield! 

Meanwhile, Mary Kay et al say first overall is too high to draft a running back "unless he's a generational talent".  Meanwhile, a whole bunch of (real) talent evaluators are telling us that Saquon Barkley is a generational talent.

Those who compare him to Barry Sanders are just plain silly, but LaDanien Thomlinson? Yep!  Marshall Faulk?  Yeah, kinda.

Barkley is bigger and stronger than both.  Click that link, and see what Buzzkill calls the "metrics" people say about his ability to make people miss, pass block, break tackles, etc etc etc.

I know that edge-rusher Bradley Chubb, or Minkah Fitzpatrick would make a big and immediate impact as well, but not as big as LaQuan Barkley.  Barkley is an every-down multi-dimensional offensive weapon who can score from anywhere on the field.

The Browns need more help on offense than on defense in general, and this bigger, faster version of Duke Johnson is the ideal "difference-maker".

Todd Haley would immediately use him almost exactly the way he used Ebineezer Belle (Barkley is faster out of the blocks and more powerful than Belle, so he would send him up the gut behind power/man blocking more, but still zone-block and use him in the slot or even outside as a defacto wide receiver).

Taylor/Keenum/McCarron/McCown (yeah McCown)-Mayfield works for me with Barkley.

A bunch of NFL people are big Mayfield fans, but look at Brooks and Mayock's projections, not to mention Kiper and everybody else.

The top three are Rosen, Darnold, and Kizer Allen, and the odds against anybody at two or three drafting Mayfield instead of two of these three are pretty steep.

Between first and fourth are the Giants and Colts in that order.  This hardly matters.  The Giants need to find Eli Manning's successor, and the Colts don't need a quarterback, but will probably trade down because they need a bunch of other stuff.

Well...unless the Browns don't draft Barkley first overall...in which case either team could draft him.

For the Giants, Barkley could put them right back in contention with Marshall and Beckham back.  For the Colts, he could do the same with a healthy Andrew Luck.

Take Barkley off the table, and the Giants draft Eli's successor (I guess Darnold) or trade down, and the Colts probably trade down as well.

Either way, with Barkley off the table, two quarterbacks go at two and three.  Baker Mayfield is short, maybe immature, from the FCC and an Air-Raid system, so right now it looks like niether team would draft the fourth-ranked quarterback at two or three here.  It's even possible that the Colts stand pat and draft Chubb.

I agree with McGloughan and a bunch of other credible talent evaluators that Baker Mayfield's college performances translate to the NFL.

At the Senior Bowl, my NFL Radio experts (Jim Miller, Pat Kirwan, Gil Brandt etc) could not find fault with him, and said he looked like a pro already in practice.

Happily, he did poorly in his abbreviated stint in the actual game, while Josh Allen did great.  As I predicted, Mayfield emerged as an asterisk.

Listen to me:  Most of humanity (including Buzzkill Bill Polian the Hall of Fame GM) find ways to see what they expect to see, especially after they have made predictions, expressed opinions, or otherwise exposed themselves to potentially being seen as wrong.

I've never personally understood this, but I see it almost universally in everybody around me.  I feel like Mister Spock beamed into Chicago's City Hall.

Baker Mayfield did what he did in college.  He is the most accurate passer in this class, with yards-per-attempt also at or near the top.  He was THE best quarterback in Senior Bowl practices.  He is unmistakably a leader and clutch-performer.

He's a two-time walk-on "longshot" who took over two teams in short order, and won almost every game he started.  If you subtract his TOP FOUR playoff losses, in which he threw for massive yardage in close losses, his college w/l record is simply amazing (if not unprecedented...I need to check that out).

Even his "scouting reports" to date have a hard time citing any flaws beyond his height and "immaturity".

PFF and Numberfire no doubt say he's the best quarterback in this draft, but now that John Dorsey is the GM, he will agree with Buzzkill Bill and the "football guys" and just draft Darnold or (gag) Allen first overall right?

WRONG.

Paul DePodesta is still here, and now McGloughan is consulting, and Dorsey himself wasn't blowing smoke when he talked Mayfield up.

Dorsey drafted the 6'1 5/8th" Aaron Rodgers, who frankly had a lot less going for him than Baker Mayfield does.

Those who ass ume that Todd Haley would kick Mayfield out of bed for eating crackers are also probably wrong.  Those who think McCarron-fan Hue Jackson rejects him because he's under 6'2" are almost as dumb.

Now that I've said all this, you can expect Darnold first overall and somebody else at four.  (That glitch hasn't been fixed yet, so Dorsey isn't getting my emails).












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