As I've said, Haley does like G-power runs like Hue, but mixes in zone-blocking. He also attacks the whole field in the passing game (not just the deep part). Also unlike Hue, he adapts his offenses to his personnel.
You just don't get it if you think Ebineezer Belle would have had anywhere near the impact he's had under Hue Jackson, and that might go for Antonio Brown too (Brown does most of his damage running with short and intermediate passes...Hue would send him deep too much, and waste that).
But my real topic: Nick Foles.
The Eagles are committed to Carson Wentz, who they've got under contract for another three years, and they're in Cap trouble.
They can keep Foles for 7 mil for 2018, but have no hope of re-signing him in 2019 after what he did in the last three games. And I don't think I have ever seen a more impressive performance by any quarterback in any playoff game (let alone Superbowl) in my all too long life.
Are the old school football guys saying they should just keep Foles and get other guys to renegotiate or get dumped?
I doubt it.
Analytically, you "sell high": You deduct Foles' 7 mil off your salary cap, and turn him into more young assets while he's the hottest player in the NFL (hotter than Cousins, maybe).
Does that sound like "Moneyball" to you? If so, you need to stop thinking in cliches, because it's common sense, and not "unlikely" at all.
No doubt, Memorex Morons will come out of the woodwork, reminding you that Foles had a great season with the Eagles one year, and fell on his face (and back into a backup role) with Jeff Fisher`s Rams the next a few years ago.
Past performance does not neccessarily reflect future results:
Foles is 29 years old now. Analytics emphasizes trends and most recent results (just like "football guys" do! What a cooincidence huh?) Inexperienced quarterbacks are a lot less consistent than veterans for obvious reasons.
If you think Nick Foles will fall on his face again after what we all just witnessed, you need a brain transplant.
It was amazing. His accuracy was almost unbelievable, at every angle and distance. I remember pundits panning this guy for being inaccurate, and have to doubt that. You can become somewhat more accurate with more consistent mechanics, but accuracy (as in "ball-placement" pinpoint accuracy) is largely enate.
Oh no doubt, Nick Foles is better now than he ever was before...is it possible he could be better than he was in the Superbowl? Well, he did have that overthrow, so it's conceivable...
Oh yeah the interception: OBVIOUSLY not his fault. I guess it could have been 1.5 feet higher, but that deep pass was highly catchable, and Jefferies just couldn't bring it in. (Excellent coverage! The DB kinda trapped his left arm (legally), and it was a fluke--I can't bash the receiver for that either--he was trying to salvage the catch while falling down backwards).
I personally had Nick Foles written off myself, but not now. I personally prefer him to Kirk Cousins now. He's a year younger, he out-Brady'd Brady, and did it through the playoffs, and saved his best for the Superbowl.
With Cousins, it's just (a lot of) money.
Foles has a year left on his contract, so it's just draft picks (for now), but for sure more costly long term, unless you just "rent" him for one season (ie don't renegotiate to lock him up long-term.)
It gets complicated here. Cousins has a much longer track history, and has been a lot more consistent than Foles. He's the "safe" investment.
My own estimation of Nick Foles is merely an opinion. When you're throwing hundreds of millions of guaranteed bucks around, the GM who "misses" on a quarterback is going to get fired.
Even if I stood in Dorsey's shoes, I'd hesitate to offer Nick Foles what I'd offer Cousins. Those who know me know that I'm all about calculated risks. They also know I owe them money, so...
Option B would be to just "see what he can do" for 9 million in 2018, and then deal with (or franchise) him in 2019.
But if he performs as well as I think he will (gets the Browns in contention; beats the Steelers etc), his price will go UP, not down.
Then there's the human element, which analytics cannot consider:
As we see, the Redskins kept franchising Cousins, paying him more than they would have had to on a longer-term contract.
There's your old school guys vs analysts at work: His completion percentage, yards per attempt etc. didn't matter as much to the geniusses in Washington as touchdown passes and wins.
Analytics ignores that stuff, and looks at his defenses, his receivers, running backs, offensive line...and knew he was an elite quarterback three years ago.
Anyway, Cousins is naturally pissed off. Now he's 30 years old, and (jeez) just got replaced by a 34 year old who got a bigger contract than he was...
Nevermind, but if Dorsey can get Foles, he has to think about this.
Me? I stick my neck out, and offer him 10% less than I was offering Cousins. That could work, since the other GMs are scared, and might not match that. But that's just me: I don't expect Foles to flame out again.
What would the Eagles want? We can start with first and fourth overall. What could they get? The Browns second second round draft pick, a spare linebacker (we got too many), the 4th round pick, and a bag o Doritos, or a more substantial bribe.
Bad timing for the Eagles: Cousins still out there, Tyrod Taylor, two Vikings quarterbacks, the great AJ McCarron, and perhaps the best QB draft class in 15 years.
Now I can tell you: Paul DePodesta and I think Foles=Cousins and would cost about the same overall. In either case, Dorsey should sign him for 5 years (front-loaded with the guaranteed money but tradeable after 2 years and dumpable after 3--agents like to brag about these deals and players want those guarantees up front see?)
Next up: This quarterback's successor: A second or even third round pick in this incredibly deep class (to go with
Use 1 and 4 on non-quarterbacks or trade down and stockpile more picks and still get studs anyway.
As you know, I'm a huge Saquon Barkley fan, but could settle for the best edge-rusher, free safety, cornerback, or left tackle (pick two) in this draft, a 2019 first or second rounder, another 2018 second rounder, etc etc etc instead, ok?
DeShone Kizer is lost in this shuffle: He's not dead yet. He was raw/inexperienced coming out of college (too early), and started in the NFL too early.
Any REAL analyst tosses his rookie season in the circular file, and gives him a reset for 2018 (and beyond, since he's ideally a backup for now).
Kizer matters here! I can't fathom how all these people are projecting Josh Allen as a first overall draft pick in this specific draft--what tf is he the great white hope or something? He is already better than Kizer how?
Irrationality drives me insane (find the hidden joke here). Sorry, but as I've said before, DeShone Kizer in NFL year two will be significantly better than Josh Allen.
Kizer even has a puncher's chance of being pretty damn good in his second season! Maybe even elite, down the road!
He has the physical tools, deep accuracy, and brains. I've gone deeper into his processing and crossing accuracy too, and he needs to answer these questions. But he gets a mulligan on his raw/premature rookie season, and Haley is here now.
I was never a Kizer fan in the first place (not accurate enough for me except on vertical routes), but I saw some flashes from him in 2017, and have to defend him now, since everybody else is already calling him a bust.
But I digress: Foles or Cousins and a lower quarterback is the analy...err, common sense strategy in 2018, because Foles or Cousins will put the Browns in contention immediately, and keep them there, provided Dorsey does AS WELL AS Sashi Brown did in the draft and free agency.
Dammit.
And late bloomer or no, I like Foles best.
*Note: A lot of smart people are saying that Doug Pederson adapted his offense to Foles when Carson Wentz went down.
I didn't see that. I saw Foles throwing from the pocket more often than not. Pederson mixes in some roll-outs sure, but run/pass options? You mean Foles ran with the ball more than two or three times? What? Huh?
Better watch that game again. You guys are thinking way too hard.
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