Hue Jackson the Talent Scout: NOT

The guys on NFL Radio still sound idiotic sometimes, as they persist on referring to "that organization's history with quarterbacks".

Illogical.  That "organization's" front office includes Andrew Berry and Paul DePodesta as the only high-profile holdovers.  Wolf, Highsmith, McGloughan, and Dorsey are all new.

Todd Haley, the new offensive coordinator, will certainly have input (I hope more than Hue Jackson) on quarterbacks.

When you say "that organization", do you mean the Redskins, Packers, or Chiefs?  Dorsey started in Green Bay, so I guess you must mean the Packers, since, you know, four of these guys are ex-Packers, right?

That's Critical Thinking 101, by the way.

But that's "just me" I guess.  Anyway, the NFL Radio guys are otherwise sentient, so I can relate their opinions here:

They're generally calling the Jets and Vikings the top contenders for Kirk Cousins, for valid reasons (including the fact that John Dorsey wasn't born yesterday, and won't OVERPAY him.)

I can't wait to see how this pans out, because either of these teams signing Cousins would profoundly alter the market for the Browns.

Bucky Brooks projects Sam Bradford to the Browns as is, but if the Vikings sign Cousins, Case Keenum is definitely available.  He won't take backup money to stay in Minnesota.  Bradford or Bridgewater might.

Let's compare Keenum to the legendary AJ McCarron.  Are we done yet?  Allrighty then! 

Listen to me here: The only guy in this organization who wants to pay AJ McCarron 19 mil/year is Hue Jackson...

Well, if the Vikings overpay Kirk Cousins, and somebody else is dumb enough to overpay McCarron, Case Keenum loses a lot of leverage in 2018.

Four quarterbacks are projected in the top ten, and as many as six in the first round.  Cousins has his job, and McCarron beat him out of another job.  Keenum becomes a very viable "bridge" candidate for the Browns at a reasonable price.

I especially like this if Rodney Mayfieldfield is the draft pick, since Keenum is just as short.

If the Jets overpay Cousins, they won't trade up, which in turn means Denver won't either.  The Vikings might wake up and just pay Keenum.  In that scenario, Brooks is right:

Sam Bradford is a viable solution.  His greed is off the table now, but he still might not want to help "mentor" anybody, because he is selfish and self-centered.

However, in between injuries, he is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  Bradford's next contract will be incentive-laden, without much guaranteed money.  From what I'm hearing, the Browns are the only team in the NFL who consider him a starter...even temporarily.

Gotta say, however, Gramps McCown is probably better.  He's not as good as Bradford, but he's more athletic, about as durable, a TON better as a mentor (not to mention a human being), and will come cheaper too.

The more I think about this stuff, the more I think Keenum (even for 17 mil guaranteed in 2018 and incentives thereafter) is number one and McCown (dirt cheap) is number two.

By the way, another "analytics" (aka common sense) thing is not getting desperate and overpaying.

Compare McCown and Bradford (factoring in their respective supporting casts), and it's actually pretty close statistically.  Durability is close too.  You know Josh is a geezer and in decline, but what do the Browns really need now?

Is this too complicated? Really?  Even before I get to the "room" and personalities and chemistry and mentorship, you don't get the production comparison?

Pearls before swine oh well...

Full disclosure I LIKE Josh McCown personally and know that Ebineezer Bradford is a hyperselfish scumbag.

Tom Brady took a little less money than he could have to let Lord Insideous sign and retain guys to help him.  Big Bird Flacco took every penny he could get.

A backup "discard" just won the Superbowl...partly because the Eagles were stacked with talent...and partly because Carson Wentz (and Nick Foles) were CHEAP DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

After Thomas Moore's analysis, I know that AJ McCarron is not a good bridge quarterback option at his projected price, and that Tom might be right in asserting that he's not even a viable starter.

Mary Kay Cabbot gave a tepid, pc anwer to an "ask Mary Kay" interrogator who axed if Hue Jackson would have more say on quarterbacks under the new regime.

My own response would not have been so nice:

I HOPE not! Why tf would he!?! Do you actually believe he didn't sign off on the Wentz and Watson trade-downs, or "stealing" Kizer in the second round?  "You need to trust me on this one" in re Kessler in the third round was "taking one for the team"!?!

A much more experienced (in college and the pros) Kevin Hogan outperformed Kizer in preseason, but Hue started his favorite anyway.  He had his mind made up about that even before the draft (ok this is mostly just an opinion--Hue might have actually tried to be objective, and maybe just "went with his gut" to outsmart his cerebral cortex and do what he wanted to do in the first place).

Anyway, Hue Jackson has established negative credibility in judging quarterbacks.  He may indeed be a great developer of quarterbacks (Kizer might lack the processing speed), but there you go!  While everybody else in the NFL said Kizer needed one (preferably two) years on the bench, Hue started him immediately, despite the fact that he was second best.

Sounds like Hue was a big Kizer fan, right?  Like maybe he wanted to draft him?  Like maybe he preferred him over Watson maybe?

If you think Hue Jackson didn't have a voice in quarterback decisions, I guess I know how you vote.

I repeat: I HOPE Hue Jackson won't have even more influence on quarterback decisions.  There are now at least five other guys in the front office and on his staff we can trust more.

Oh I forgot: A second and third round pick for McCarron, remember that?  That was Hue--not Brown!  And shame on Haslam for backing that idiocy!

Okbye.

Draft Strategery, Arithmatic, and the Browns

Terry Pluto contemplated the Saquon Barkley dilemma, and weakened my resolve about drafting the running back first or fourth.

As I've mentioned, drafting a running back that high is an exception to my own rule; I just thought Barkley is that exceptional.

However, as Terry points out, this entire running back class is excellent, and the separation between Barkley and the other guys isn't that great.

Dane Brugler has Barkley rated below where he had Zeke Elliott and Todd Gurley, and wouldn't draft Barkley that high.

Brugler (and Terry) like this Rashaad Penny (Kiper's fifth-ranked running back) a lot in the second round, and I like Darrius Guice.  Ask five scouts who they like (besides Barkley--that's unanimous), and you might get three different answers.

Sony Micheal is another guy, but there are about six.  At this point, Micheal and Guice are the bigger guys with big play ability who the Browns are more likely to target, but other guys are interesting:

Ronald Jones II is 6'1", 195 lbs., and predictably doesn't break many tackles or block well.  But he is explosive and fast.  He's a projection in the NFL.  You have to know he will gain weight, and that length will make him a more reliable receiver over time.

Royce Freeman is a big, powerful hammer (with some wiggle), but not a big-play threat.

The Browns already have Duke Johnson (and Matt Dayes), and the new running back has to have some size and power.  

If they don't grab Barkley, they could hope for Micheal or Guice to slide, and could trade up to nab one of them (both could go in the first round).

Minkah Fitzpatrick and Bradley Chubb both sound pretty awesome, but Fitzpatrick addresses a need, and he will be there.

The Browns may (or may not) need a free safety, but definitely need a cornerback.  Gregg Williams also just loves versatile players to confuse and confound offenses with.  For him and this defense, Fitz would have an immediate and substantial impact.

I like the way the quarterback talk is going.  DeShone Kizer Josh Allen will blow everybody away at the combine, and probably indeed be drafted ahead of Mayfield (hopefully not by the Browns).

Josh Rosen is more advanced (pro-ready) than the other guys, which gives him the edge over Darnold for teams in "win now" mode.

But the panelists and pundits who say you can't mess around (assuming you have one specific quarterback in mind) are correct.  

I suspect that the Browns (except for maybe Hue Jackson) like both Darnold and Mayfield, or else just Mayfield.  The math here sucks, because the Colts might trade down, and the Giants could do that or draft a quarterback themselves.  Even if they're ready to settle for Darnold (just my opinion who knows what Dorsey thinks?), both their quarterbacks could go at two and three.

I play poker.  The odds against that here are pretty high, but this is one time you can't take any chances at all.  Almost certainly, Dorsey will just draft his quarterback first overall to spare himself a coronary.

But the fourth overall pick could be very much in play for a trade-down.

Barkley and four quarterbacks could go one through five, and by the time the Browns are on the clock at four, they'll be sitting pretty:

Is one (or even two) of the big four quarterbacks left? Whoever trades up to four wants one of them.  They can look down at Denver, the Jets, and the Bucs.  Elway won't budge: He knows the Browns have their quarterback, and will just draft a quarterback.

The Jets need a quarterback oh! Oh! They want to get ahead of Denver!  And Elway knows it! And just to make sure, Dorsey opens a party-line!  

Who's still on the board? Fitzpatrick, maybe Barkley, Chubb...

Tampa could draft any of these guys, but it doesn't matter.  The Browns could move down one or two slots and extort a king's ransom, and STILL get a superstud!

Mary Kay Cabbott is saying the same things, but sounds smarter now, as she says they'll probably just draft the quarterback first overall, and a running back in the second or third round, especially in this draft.

One guy asked her if the Giants might trade Eli Manning to the Browns for first or fourth, which stunned me.  Mary Kay answered that just fine.

Another guy asked what was wrong with Josh McCown as a bridge quarterback.  Good point!  She answered that one fine too.

Ebineezer Bradford's extortion racket has collapsed, so it now looks like he'll have to take a massive pay cut.  I assume he's not going to go out of his way to help a younger quarterback, but when healthy, he is an elite talent who could instantly put the Browns in contention (until his annual season-ending injury).

Teddy Bridgewater is also a possibility. 

PFF estimates that somebody will have to pay the legendary AJ McCarron 19 mil/year, and I'd take either of these much cheaper options (or preferably Saint Josh) before McCarron.

I'm not bashing AJ here, but 19 mil, even in this inflated market, is low end starting money, and (thanks to my man Thomas Moore and PFF) I know he's not all that.

Indeed, this could be a disaster:  AJ thrived on short passes and dumpoffs.  Defensive coordinators have film on that now, and a clear bead on his limitations.  They can "squeeze" him now.  He could fall on his face, utterly.

All the OTHER quarterbacks I listed have proven they can threaten every part of the field (and yes that includes Bridgewater).

Hue Jackson can pound the table all he wants over McCarron, but this time Jimmy Haslam won't back him up.

It's not just John Dorsey.  It's McGloughan and a proven all-star front office, including several former NFL players.  When THESE guys tell Jimmy "He's fulla crap this would be idiotic" (like Sashi Brown did), Jimmy will side with them.

...quick review: They tried to trade a second and third round pick late in 2017 for McCarron.  Nuff said?

Cousins? Even Joe Thomas is giving that up!  (I hope it doesn't mean he's about to retire). How much is too much? How good is he, really?  

Certainly, Kirk Cousins is a lot better than any of these draftables in 2018, but what about 2019?

Josh Allen aside, three to five quarterbacks in this draft could match or exceed Cousins in 2019, and every one of them will make chump change by comparison.

That's "analytics", by the way, but Dorsey can do that math too.

I respect the other side of this debate:

Cousins is solid and proven, and with a good supporting cast can win it all, right now.  He's 30 and durable, so the Browns could ignore quarterback (maybe trading down and stockpiling even more picks), and still get a Barkley AND a Fitzpatrick etc.

I still disagree:

1: Cousins guarantees that the Browns won't draft this high again for the forseeable future, and gouges 25% out of that cap space everybody is talking about.

2: Cousins is not as good as Big Ben, let alone at least nine other quarterbacks who will make less money than him.

3: Many scouts think the top four quarterbacks in this draft will ALL transcend Cousins in 2019 or 2020.  Do the math.

4: A healthy Sam Bradford is better than Cousins.  Keenum was better.  McCown is comparable.  Bridgewater is in his league.  ALL of them are lots cheaper.

5: (My own opinion supported by McGloughan, Dorsey, Jim Miller, and several other legit experts) Baker Mayfield does NOT need to collect as many splinters before starting as the Madding crowd thinks.

6: DeShone Kizer 2.0 WILL BE much better than the 1.0 version.  The only issue is how much better.  Odds are in favor of him being a decent backup, especially with Haley running the offense.

7: Any confident GM looks five years down the road, and wants a DYNASTY.  He wants Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady,  Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Wentz (I project), or even Big Ben...not Kirk Cousins.

8: What separates these guys from Cousins is their ability to win even in the worst circumstances, almost regardless of the other 21 players.  Cousins is really, really good.  But he's not that good.

9: A lot of these pundits think the current Browns are a lot worse than they are, so they think they have a lot more "holes" than they actually do.

That's why they want to just plug Cousins in and draft a whole new team.  But they (including Mayock) are wrong.  The Browns don't NEED to massively overpay Kirk Cousins so they can draft a "playmaker" instead of a quarterback.

The Browns will find a terrific running back easily in this draft, in any of the top three rounds.  They should nail down an elite cornerback in free agency, and generally resolve most of their depth issues (except for left tackle and maybe free safety) even before the draft.

Yes, that includes wide reciever.  I disagree with those who don't like Terrelle Pryor.  I now know that he struggled with an ankle injury in 2017, and have already itemized his physical limitations. But he did what he did here in 2016, and he'd be a dirt-cheap bargain.

If you have problems with arithmatic, you need not apply for an NFL front office job.  Ditto if you "dish" gossip.

"Diva"?! Teammates disliked him? He worships Satan oh puh leez!!!  

There are higher profile/more expensive (in case you missed that I said "more expensive", ok? No footnotes here.  You can look up "expensive" in your dictionary, and I hope you know what "more" means already).

-Sigh- ok well every business has what's called a "budget", see? And when oh gdammit nevermind okbye

Uncommonly Good Browns Analysis

Fred Greetham surprised me with a good article suggesting seven offseason moves the Browns should make this offseason.

Fred seems to like DeShone Kizer Josh Allen more than Baker Mayfield, and defaults the first overall pick to quarterback...say, waitaminnit...

Fred says they should draft Rosen, Darnold, or Allen.  So why would they draft a quarterback first overall when at least one of these guys is there at four?

I'm being silly here, of course.  Fred isn't claiming to be a quarterback expert, and is probably assuming that the brain crust will have one favorite (just doin my Black Cloud imitation Fred...good thing you didn't make any grammatical errors).

Like everybody else, Fred makes some assumptions in prioritizing free safety, but I can't pick on him for that, especially since he might be right.  At least me mentions McCourty as a candidate👍.

Fred opens up with signing AJ McCarron.  As I've posted my own self, this could be the bag the Browns are left holding among veteran quarterbacks, for assorted reasons.

If I could access my damn clipboard on this damn thing, I could show you how Thomas Moore backed up his McCarron bashing by pointing out that AJ averaged one whole yard less per-attempt than Dalton, among other things.

I kind of agree with Fred that AJ might be a good bridge guy, but Fred has some of this upside down and backwards:

He lists Keenum as a consolation prize to McCarron, and I'm not sure Bridgewater wouldn't be better.  Now that I'm hearing that nobody will be dumb enough to overpay Bradford yet again, I'm even liking him more now too.  And of course Josh McCown.

Damn that Thomas Moore guy just keeps confusing me with all these irrefutable facts!  But Fred Greethum should check that out too.

Fred points out that "the Browns were willing to" cough up a second and third round pick for McCarron last season.  No way.  Hue Jackson was, but not Sashi Brown or DePodesta.

I can tell, because this trade, had it gone down, would have ranked as one of the top thirty dumbest trades of all time.  I still think Jimmy Haslam backed Hue Jackson up, and Sashi sabotaged it on purpose for his own good.

I know Haslam had to jump on Dorsey, but he should have just given Sashi a couple mil as a "thank you" parting gift for saving him from further humiliation.

Hue Jackson is not to be trusted as a talent scout.

Anyway, Fred also said that Corey Coleman is looking "more and more" like an average receiver.  But where did the second "more" come from, when a guy should be entitled to play in 16 games before he even gets to his first "more"?

And, of course, there's this: DeShone Kizer is the first quarterback to ever make JOSH GORDON look average!  Back off Coleman for a minute or two, Fred.  If he looks the same with a competent quarterback, ok?

But in every other way, anybody with a brain can see that Greethum is insightful and brilliant, as he agrees with me on most things.

For instance:

1: The front seven is all set.  Fred allows for a Chubb at four, but thinks the Browns could nab an edge-rushing specialist (to augment Ogbah and Garrett) in the lower rounds, but that's pretty much it. (I still like Nate Orchard too btw).

2: The offensive line is all set, unless/until Big Joe rides off into the internet.

3: LaQuon Barkley is a no-brainer at four.

4: Nail down corners, wide receivers, and free safeties as free agents ahead of the draft.

Trumaine Johnson is a bigger target than ever, as the Rams just traded for superstud Peters.

Fred gets a little out of hand as he thinks they should sign a free safety AND draft one high...

Well I don't want to pick on Fred too much.  He could be right about Kizer Allen being better than Mayfield, and nobody on the current roster (except McCourty) being a top tier free safety in 2018...

But I have to really hammer him for this: Derrick Kindred did not "show some promise" at strong safety.  He was a STUD, on his way to the Pro Bowl in his second season.

Indeed, Kindred was Gregg Williams' hybrid player.  Everybody else just can't wait for Jabrill Peppers to bench this guy.  Gregg Williams does not. 

Before Gregg makes any other moves, he wants to see Peppers at free safety in his second (his S E C O N D)
season, because he wants Kindred on the field as much as possible.

If Peppers doesn't pan out at free, he might invent a new defense.

I know this, because Gregg Williams has been called a genius, and this is what I would do.

Case closed.

Greetham mostly gets it, but he's got an itchy trigger finger.  

In case you missed it, Derrick Kindred was awesome until he got injured, Free safety was the ONE position rookie Jabrill Peppers had never played in college, and Fred is right: McCourty can play free safety.

Fred gets it: He knows cornerback is the bigger need (he needs to replace McCourty at corner before he moves him).

I don't know what's wrong with Jamar Taylor, but something IS.  The Browns are covered at nickel (not just Calhoun, but Kindred, Peppers, and a depth-shrimp), but they need two starters (due respect to McCourty but he's 31 and we want him at free safety) and maybe even two backups outside!

Fred Greetham pointed out that (translated) Williams played a lot of zone and (WAY) off-man coverage than he wanted to because he couldn't trust his corners to man up.  

Don't bring up Joe Haden.  You don't want me openin up that can.  Axe the Steelers.

I'm trying very hard to pick on Fred Greetham here, but it's tough.  He's premature on Corey Coleman and thinks Allen is better than Mayfield, has prematurely dismissed Peppers at free and benched Kindred at strong, but he's still smarter than almost everybody else I've read.

Bud Shaw isn't a great analyst, but is hysterical in talking about the top draftable quarterbacks.

Yes, I am concerned that only one police officer overtook and tackled Mayfield, *haven't seen the video*, but I think the passrushers he evaded and outran in college outweigh that, along with the fact that Mayfield was (presumably) not impaired at those times.

Seriously, this incident doesn't bother me as much as it does Mike Mayock et al.

As McGloughan and Dorsey say, most of us screw up in our respective punkdoms, then mature.  Mayfield's screw-up was extreme/insane, but then, so is what he's accomplished.

I've met people like Mayfield.  I know.  He is the best quarterback in this draft, and he's at least as good as Wentz and Goff.  Mayock is wrong.  I am right.  Wait 3 years and see.

Cousins, Barkley, Brooks, Mayock and the Browns

In this debate about whether or not the Browns should consider drafting LaQuan Barkley instead of a quarterback first overall, one of the guys kept saying "he'd better be Adrian Peterson".

Not exactly.  Peterson had an unprecedented size/speed ratio (was a freak), but was not a good receiver, and his brutal running style did not bode well for his health or longevity in the NFL.

Barkley is actually a better prospect than Peterson was.  Indeed, in terms of overall production, Ebineezer Belle, David Johnson, Zeke Elliott, Karim Hunt, and others have been better than Adrian Peterson, and so is Barkley.

Any real analyst, unmoved by hyperbole, perceives and adapts to these facts.

The guy who suggested Barkley first overall repeatedly said that unless the Browns felt one particular quarterback was clearly superior, they could get at least a top three quarterback at four.

The rest of the panel kept saying that you just can't gamble on the quarterback you want being there at four.  I really wish more people could comprehend english.

Tony Grossi is freaking me out lately.  First, he says that Corey Coleman is on a bubble.  If not for Tony's track history, I'd laugh at that.  Unfortunately, Grossi isn't wrong very often.  He clearly does have genuine inside sources.

Tony cites what amounts to a lack of discipline (and perhaps dedication), along with his injuries.  None of us can see how deep this goes, or if it persists.

I hope he's wrong, because Coleman could be a lethal weapon, from the slot, outside, as a returner, or even at running back.

Next, Tony tells us that he thinks Joe Thomas is more likely to retire this offseason than not.  Joe has back and joint issues, and recovers slowly from games, despite his (wisely) attenuated practice schedule.

This would be bad.  Tony has decided that Roderick Johnson is no valid candidate in 2018, and later quotes Joe Thomas as saying that most left tackles from outside the Big Ten need a year or two on the bench before they can compete at this level.

I don't know why Roderick doesn't count here.  He's about to enter his second season.  He was baptized by Myles Garrett, and mentored by Big Joe.

Still, Johnson is unlikely to suddenly be very good.  Tony is right that moving Shon Coleman to the left side would be disruptive, and I restate that it's foolish to expect Joel Bitonio to excel on that island.  

Drango did okay there (to my amazement), but when a tight end has to help a tackle out, he can't be a downfield receiver (and he did need help sometimes).  Drango is a bandaid.

In 2018, Joe's retirement could drasticly alter the Browns' draft strategy.

None of the left tackles rate a top ten pick (not that somebody won't do it or anything).  

Orlando Brown Jr. is being panned for his high pad level and lack of bend, but he's 6'8"--even taller than his father.

I remember that Browns right tackle.  He played "tall" as well, but when the speed guys tried to sneak around him, he stuck out his paw and drove them to the turf.  If not, the guy had to take an extra-wide loop.

The bullrush didn't work either.  If, by deceit, you got past his hands, he was massive enough that you lost your mojo when you hit him, and he could recover and teach you a lesson (Brown Senior felt insulted by bull-rushes).

Senior, like Junior, often had to place his hands on shoulder pads instead of inside them against the chest.  Well, he was four or five inches taller than most of the guys he faced, and they deliberately got as low as they could on him.

How low do these guys think a guy can bend before he's on his knees?

No problem!  Senior just pushed them face-first into the turf, or kinda tossed them aside!  "Yeah you keep that leverage!  There you go!"

Junior is ranked fourth, and could last til the second round.  The other guys do seem to project better to the left side.

If the Browns want McGlinchey or Kolton Miller, they might have to give up one of their top two picks (and the super-running back if I'm right) and trade down to nab them lower.

Another possible sleeper is Connor Williams, who was doing great at left tackle, but suffered a season-ending injury early in 2017.

Daryl Ruiter wrote a good article about how the Browns new all-star front office and Todd Haley will give the team more credibility with free agents and other teams.

Some guys talk about Hue as a lame duck.  Nah!  If Hue got fired, the next Head Coach is already here.

Pat McNanoman wrote an unusually above average article on the Browns needs.

But as usual, I need to help him out anyway:

1: You can't judge wide receivers in a vacuum.  For Pat, it doesn't matter who is throwing the ball.  You just look at catches and yards and that's how good a receiver is period.

2: Free safety might fix itself as two rookies return, and McCourty might be used there.  And for the moment I'm still leaning towards Gregg Williams' opinions over yours.

Other than that, Pat outdid himself, which is why I linked him in this time.

Bucky Brooks has my back on Saquon Barkley first overall.  So does David Carr (the older bro ex-QB).

Bucky breaks him down in a scouting report.  David says the Browns could still get a top three quarterback in this draft at four anyway.

I guess David doesn't see any huge differences between the quarterbacks...or maybe doesn't care.  One of the names he threw out was DeShone Kizer Josh Allen.

Anyway, David was a quarterback, and (like Jim Miller, Rich Gannon et al) hammers on the importance of a running game to help a quarterback out.

What happened to Carson Palmer after David Johnson got hurt?  Prescott wasn't the same without Elliott.  John Elway didn't win a Superbowl until he got Taylor.

And come to think of it, David Carr himself might never have had that running back.

Bucky does mention a few really low-yardage games for Barkley, but I'll want to figure out if he means on the ground or overall, since if Bucky is only talking about ground yards, it's meaningless.  

This Adam Rank guy aint so bad.  He thinks the Browns should just pay Kirk Cousins whatever it takes, and pile up even more talent around him to produce an instacontender.

He sounds a lot like me around six weeks ago, which clearly illustrates his superior intellect.

But that was before some of my real experts (and McGloughan) pumped my Cousins brakes.  Cousins is probably a top ten quarterback, but definitely not a top five, and it looks like he's about to get paid like a top ONE, and I aint fallin for it.

It's not only the money, but the back end guarantees and stuff his agent will no doubt demand.

Mike Mayock agrees with Rank.  Mike doesn't think any of these quarterbacks are like Carson Wentz, and does like Cousins.

Per Mayock, if the Browns get Cousins, they can add Barkley and Minkah Fitzpatrick and contend for a Division Title in 2018.

...ok it's Mayock, so I'm wavering.  Well let's see how rediculous the Cousins bidding war gets.  There is no such thing as "money is no object" in the NFL...Ok well there shouldn't be.

As for Mayock, he "demotes" Mayfield for exclusively off-the-field concerns.  That is, how will he handle press conferences, will he out-tweet Trump, and/or stir up all sorts of unneccessary contoversey?

All of that is legit.  But I bet you that if he ignored the political stuff, Mayock would rank Mayfield right about where McGloughan does.

Is Mayfield Aaron Rodgers in 2019?  If he is, would you prefer Cousins...for three times the money?

Just playing Devil's Advocate here.  Mayock has me undecided again, damn him.

Vinnie Lyer wrote a decent article on potential free agents for the Browns needs, but made a few screw-ups:

1: RT Shon Coleman, starting for the first time in his second NFL season, is about where Mitchell Schwartze was at the same point in his own career.  He improved slowly but surely, and will continue to improve.  Right tackle is not an area of need.

2: Brien Boddy-Calhoun was the best nickel corner in the NFL last season.  What are you smoking, Vinnie?

3: DeShone Kizer was a much bigger disappointment than Corey Coleman.  Targets are irrelevant when they don't land in the correct zip code.

However, Vinnie was really smart about the free agents he listed (how much, how old, what tier, short or long-term, etc), and also about targetting outside, and not slot, receivers.

He also came up with some left tackle options (Nate Solder becomes A-1 if Big Joe retires).

Baker Mayfield, LaQuon Barkley, Josh McCown

Pre-combine mock drafts are all but meaningless, but fun to argue about.

Jeff Risdon did one which at first I thought was idiotic, but actually wasn't.

He's got Mayfield first overall, and Guard Quenton Nelson fourth overall.  On the surface, that's insane, but Jeff explains that Joel Bitonio or Shon Coleman could then move to left tackle when Joe Thomas retires.

Jeff thinks that Nelson could be the best overall player in this draft, and I'm not yet qualified to disagree.

Still, I think Jeff is making too many assumptions about Bitonio's ability to play the hot corner in the NFL.  He's 6'4" and would have issues with speed rushers.

Naturally, nobody can match Joe Thomas, but just to be a mediocre right tackle, you have to be a special athlete.

Bitonio and Coleman both played left tackle in college, so it's not new to them.  Shon Coleman actually projects better there (Jeff would put Bitonio at right tackle in that case).

Also, there's Roderick Johnson, who Jeff and everybody else has already written off due to his being humiliated by fellow rookie Myles Garrett before hitting IR in preseason.  Man, you people really need to give these rookies a chance!

Jeff's other picks are a big possession receiver at 33, then a tall cornerback, then a LT Jamarco Jones out of Ohio State as "insurance in case Coleman doesn't work out".

In the third it's running back Sony Micheal, who Jeff says would be a first rounder in most drafts (I don't know him yet either).

That's an "analytics" thing, by the way.  The fact is, a whole bunch of second to fourth round running backs have instant success in the NFL, and this draft is especially deep at running back.

Us "Moneyball" "metrics" guys like exploiting situations like this to get a bigger bang for our bucks and draft picks.

You know I want LaQuan Barkley in spite of this, but I can certainly see the logic in addressing other, harder to find, positions first in this situation.

Per Risdon and the consensus, left tackle is slim pickins in the 2018 draft.  Jeff picks a guard because he doesn't feel that any of the left tackles even rate a first round grade (and I don't know enough to argue with that yet either).

Left tackles also rarely come from outside the first round in general, unless they're converted tight ends, and have time to develop.

What I've heard from the real experts so far is that quarterback, running back, and cornerback are especially deep in 2018, wide receiver is pretty good, and left tackles and edge-rushers are really shallow (I don't know about other positions yet).

Left tackle is indeed a real issue for the Browns long-term.  You can't find those guys in free agency or the second round, and I need to remind Jeff, it's rare that a left guard or right tackle moves to left tackle and grades out in the top 16, no matter how good they were at their old positions.

Another "analytics" thing is leaning on the law of averages, and making the most of what you've got.  I wouldn't do what Jeff suggested 4th overall.  

As I posted yesterday, I think Baker Mayfield will be drafted after Darnold, and (at least) Rosen or Allen, so if he's the target, he could be drafted fourth.  Am I 100% sure?  No.  And this could change.

This is the year I make the exception to the analytical cheap running back rule, because, well, if you could make sure you could instantly have a David Johnson or Laveon Belle, wouldn't you?

Nevermind where those guys were drafted, or Kamara, or Hunt: this is about making sure, you see?  That's part of common sense analytics too.

Since I'm spitballin here, I'm remembering how Baker Mayfield adapted/performed in Senior Bowl practices, and what my real experts said about him:

Jim Miller said he couldn't find any flaws in his mechanics at all, including dropping back from center.  He was decisive and threw ON TIME AND WITH ANTICIPATION.  "He looks like a pro already".

Well, I got to thinking about Gramps McCown again.  We're talking about Foles, Keenum, Taylor, McCarron etc. and about inflated contracts.

But Josh is THE PERFECT bridge quarterback, because he adopts all the younger guys and does all he can to help them learn the ropes.  This is his nature, and he's been like that for a long time.

He'd be happy to come back to Hue Jackson and Cleveland, especially with Josh Gordon back on board,

McCown performed at an elite level for the Jets last season, and even stayed healthy for awhile before hitting IR again as usual.  (He's always had good-to-great stats, but rarely WON like that!).

The people who say Baker Mayfield needs a year or two on the bench are wrong.  This is based exclusively on his Air-Raid offense and conference (an absolute "bust"-farm!)

But Mayfield is different.  He is the exception to that rule.

If the Browns draft Mayfield, they should take Josh McCown very seriously, because this kid will be "ready" in 2018.

Between McCown and Mayfield would be Josh Allen DeShone Kizer.  If Josh goes down in game 3, Kizer steps in.  Let's see what that offseason processing his experience does for him.  He will be better, for sure.  Maybe even enough better to win some games.

If not, give Mayfield his shot.

Todd Haley will have a "Mayfield package" (which Hue Fisher would of course not have).

And Josh would adopt Kizer as well!  What if McCown had started for the Browns last season instead of Kizer?

Oh shut tf up they would have won some games!  And when Josh got hurt, KIZER might have been better than he was when Hue Lewis tossed him under the bus starting game one!

While John Dorsey classlessly lied about the talent Sashi Brown had given Hue Jackson, I'm still glad he (and Haley) are here now, and that Hue has zero leverage left.

Dorsey is a former player and a "football guy".  Sashi Brown was really niether.  He couldn't butt heads with Hue and win.  Dorsey can and will.

Dorsey would probably have been on board with drafting Kizer in the second round last season, but behind closed doors would have been in his face over starting him in game one (it should have been Kevin Hogan, who clearly outperformed everybody else).

Sashi lacked this leverage.

We're pretty certain that the trade-down from Wentz was a Sashi thing, but I'm telling you, Hue signed off on it (and the results on the Browns side have yet to be totalled up).

I can all but assure you that Hue preferred DeShone Kizer over DeShaun Watson last season, and Sashi made the most of it.

Because of what Sashi Brown did (and bad coaching by Hue), John Dorsey's dreams have come true with a roster packed with emerging talent, 111 mil in cap space, the first and fourth overall picks and six in the top 65, in the deepest quarterback draft and free agent classes in recent memory.

I've been hammering Hue pretty hard here, but once again, it took a lot for him to hand the offensive keys over to Todd Haley even if, in reality, he was forced to do so.

He's not a dumb guy.  He might evolve into a great Head Coach off this.  I hope so, because I really like him.

I'm just glad we're all agreed on Mayfield and Barkley.

QBs, Strategery, Barkley, and the Browns

First, I have to include this link to Thomas Moore, because he said nobody but Hue Jackson thinks AJ McCarron is a starting quarterback.

While that's a little harsh (even for me), I'm glad Dorsey, Haley, and a bunch of other sane people are here to curb Hue's enthusiasm.

Tom also thinks Nick Foles is a "system" quarterback, but I saw the Superbowl, and he ran pretty much the same offense as Carson Wentz did.

I was warming up to the McCarron as bridge idea, until Terry Pluto et al started talking about Brinks trucks oh puh-LEEZ!  Really?  For McCarron?  

AJ won two National Championships yes, but those Alabama teams had dominating defenses and running games.  AJ was labeled a game-manager, and that's about what he did in his stint starting for Hue and the Bengals.

So Tom is probably right that AJ is no franchise quarterback, but wrong to say he's not a starter in the NFL.

I personally think the projections for McCarron's payday are irrationally inflated.  There are only thirty two teams, and only eight or ten need a starting quarterback.  Now you have Cousins, possibly Foles, probably Taylor, and two Vikings quarterbacks, every one of which has proven a lot more than McCarron has.

Then you've got the consensus-deepest quarterback draft class in fifteen years, with as many as five projected to go in the first round.

Terry et al say that AJ doesn't want to be a bridge quarterback, but that doesn't matter.  No team in the NFL (thank God Hue isn't in charge here) will pay him starter money long-term.

Kirk Cousins is a different matter.  Now that Jimmy G signed that huge deal in San Fran, and some people are talking over 30 mil for him, the (smart/knowlegable) insiders on NFL Radio are checking Kirk out more closely:

Like McGloughan said, Cousins is good, but not special (read: not worth that much money).  Dorsey will probably fold his cards, as would I.  Believe it or not, he's not that desperate.

Hard to believe that Case Keenum could be replaced after what he did, but then he's as short as Baker Mayfield, so...

No I get it: Bridgewater was kicking ass then Bradford kicked ass so you've got to give his surrounding talent, coaching, and awesome defense a lot of credit for his success.

While he certainly would have done better than Kizer in 2017, Keenum wouldn't have come anywhere near what he did with that Vikings team.

He could be like McCarron (except probably ahead of him in line): No Brinks trucks.

Oh they'll get overpaid, for sure!  But everybody is using the Mike Glennon contract as a baseline and factoring in inflation to come up with 22-24 mil...for bridge quarterbacks.

They write as if there are 100 teams and they all need quarterbacks.  That's not correct.

The Browns most likely bridge guys are Taylor, McCarron, and (preferably if possible) Keenum...at a bridge quarterback price.

As for the draftable quarterbacks, Mike Mayock ranks Baker Mayfield fourth (Allen second), and Bucky Brooks says he's a second round talent who can succeed with enough support.

Unlike Buzzkill Bill Polian I, like Baker Mayfield, respect their opinions (especially Mayock's).  But like Mayfield did in twitter with Brooks, I repectfully disagree.

Way, way too much is being made of this "maturity" stuff.  Now, the fact that he responded to a guy who evaluated him is being blown up!

I get that it's a concern for coaches and GMs if a guy has tin ears and gets distracted like that, but I think Mayfield did this on purpose as a "campaign" ploy.

Everybody on NFL Radio talked about Mayfield tweeting back, and about him, and the points he made.  One of these was that last season, DeShaun Watson was dissed as well...and now people are comparing Mayfield to Watson.

In this mock draft, Chris Rollings has the Browns drafting Barkley first and Mayfield fourth.  

Everybody else is saying "the Browns must draft a quarterback first overall".  That's the word from Myopia.

Not at all.  Not in this particular draft, especially if they do like Mayfield! 

Meanwhile, Mary Kay et al say first overall is too high to draft a running back "unless he's a generational talent".  Meanwhile, a whole bunch of (real) talent evaluators are telling us that Saquon Barkley is a generational talent.

Those who compare him to Barry Sanders are just plain silly, but LaDanien Thomlinson? Yep!  Marshall Faulk?  Yeah, kinda.

Barkley is bigger and stronger than both.  Click that link, and see what Buzzkill calls the "metrics" people say about his ability to make people miss, pass block, break tackles, etc etc etc.

I know that edge-rusher Bradley Chubb, or Minkah Fitzpatrick would make a big and immediate impact as well, but not as big as LaQuan Barkley.  Barkley is an every-down multi-dimensional offensive weapon who can score from anywhere on the field.

The Browns need more help on offense than on defense in general, and this bigger, faster version of Duke Johnson is the ideal "difference-maker".

Todd Haley would immediately use him almost exactly the way he used Ebineezer Belle (Barkley is faster out of the blocks and more powerful than Belle, so he would send him up the gut behind power/man blocking more, but still zone-block and use him in the slot or even outside as a defacto wide receiver).

Taylor/Keenum/McCarron/McCown (yeah McCown)-Mayfield works for me with Barkley.

A bunch of NFL people are big Mayfield fans, but look at Brooks and Mayock's projections, not to mention Kiper and everybody else.

The top three are Rosen, Darnold, and Kizer Allen, and the odds against anybody at two or three drafting Mayfield instead of two of these three are pretty steep.

Between first and fourth are the Giants and Colts in that order.  This hardly matters.  The Giants need to find Eli Manning's successor, and the Colts don't need a quarterback, but will probably trade down because they need a bunch of other stuff.

Well...unless the Browns don't draft Barkley first overall...in which case either team could draft him.

For the Giants, Barkley could put them right back in contention with Marshall and Beckham back.  For the Colts, he could do the same with a healthy Andrew Luck.

Take Barkley off the table, and the Giants draft Eli's successor (I guess Darnold) or trade down, and the Colts probably trade down as well.

Either way, with Barkley off the table, two quarterbacks go at two and three.  Baker Mayfield is short, maybe immature, from the FCC and an Air-Raid system, so right now it looks like niether team would draft the fourth-ranked quarterback at two or three here.  It's even possible that the Colts stand pat and draft Chubb.

I agree with McGloughan and a bunch of other credible talent evaluators that Baker Mayfield's college performances translate to the NFL.

At the Senior Bowl, my NFL Radio experts (Jim Miller, Pat Kirwan, Gil Brandt etc) could not find fault with him, and said he looked like a pro already in practice.

Happily, he did poorly in his abbreviated stint in the actual game, while Josh Allen did great.  As I predicted, Mayfield emerged as an asterisk.

Listen to me:  Most of humanity (including Buzzkill Bill Polian the Hall of Fame GM) find ways to see what they expect to see, especially after they have made predictions, expressed opinions, or otherwise exposed themselves to potentially being seen as wrong.

I've never personally understood this, but I see it almost universally in everybody around me.  I feel like Mister Spock beamed into Chicago's City Hall.

Baker Mayfield did what he did in college.  He is the most accurate passer in this class, with yards-per-attempt also at or near the top.  He was THE best quarterback in Senior Bowl practices.  He is unmistakably a leader and clutch-performer.

He's a two-time walk-on "longshot" who took over two teams in short order, and won almost every game he started.  If you subtract his TOP FOUR playoff losses, in which he threw for massive yardage in close losses, his college w/l record is simply amazing (if not unprecedented...I need to check that out).

Even his "scouting reports" to date have a hard time citing any flaws beyond his height and "immaturity".

PFF and Numberfire no doubt say he's the best quarterback in this draft, but now that John Dorsey is the GM, he will agree with Buzzkill Bill and the "football guys" and just draft Darnold or (gag) Allen first overall right?

WRONG.

Paul DePodesta is still here, and now McGloughan is consulting, and Dorsey himself wasn't blowing smoke when he talked Mayfield up.

Dorsey drafted the 6'1 5/8th" Aaron Rodgers, who frankly had a lot less going for him than Baker Mayfield does.

Those who ass ume that Todd Haley would kick Mayfield out of bed for eating crackers are also probably wrong.  Those who think McCarron-fan Hue Jackson rejects him because he's under 6'2" are almost as dumb.

Now that I've said all this, you can expect Darnold first overall and somebody else at four.  (That glitch hasn't been fixed yet, so Dorsey isn't getting my emails).