Monday, December 31, 2018

Gregg Williams and Freddie Kitchens: 'Nuff Said? Apparently Not.

The Ravens just barely beat the Browns by two points in Baltimore.  

This did not surprise me, and should not have surprised you (...well of course unless you are new to reading this Blog--or are otherwise mentally impaired).

These Baltimore Ravens just pulverized the Chargers (in San Diego).

At the beginning of this 2018 season, I underestimated the Ravens' defense, Lamar Jackson, the Ravens offensive line (and tight end crew) and (especially) Harbaugh and Martindale.

Don't get me wrong here:  The Browns are more talented overall, and have the better quarterback.  And running back.  And tight end.  And another missed field goal, not to mention an erased turnover and TD, made the difference.

Now, John Dorsey is interviewing a whole bunch of people for the permanent Head Coaching slot.

He really has to, I suppose, just to make sure (and of course to gather intelligence: Opposition research).

I will be disappointed if the Williams/Kitchens team isn't retained.  It's mind-boggling that in the minds of some knowlegable people, Gregg Williams is a dark horse.  What more could he have done?  Isn't performance the most important thing?

And how about continuity?  Does John think new systems are a good idea?

We'll see.  Dorsey has been a freaking genius so far.  Even if he does something that looks dumb to me, I'll knock him for it, but assume he knows better than I do...

Until I am proven right and he is proven wrong.

My heart bleeds for the Steelers.  Not.  I almost wonder if Punker didn't throw that last pick on purpose...did a Steeler "dis" him on Twitter?

Just kidding. (Update: It was deflected)

Damarius Randall states the obvious about the "as-is" Browns' immediate future in the Division and the NFL.  Once Dorsey "churns" the roster a second time, well...

The Steelers and Ravens will never admit to being terrified, but they are.  Because they are sane.

Speaking of sanity, bad news: The Bengals just fired Marvin Lewis.  It might work out for the Browns, however.  Brown might hire Mike McCarthy!

The Browns draft 17th in 2019.  Since they've got quarterback covered, and (sorta) left tackle as well, everybody will want a stud wide receiver.

WRONG.  Vs the best defense in the NFL, FIVE receivers (four wide-outs and Njoku) caught 3-5 passes averaging over 15 yards per.

You can get technical about Callaway's 19.8 YPC (undermined by his 1.5 yard TD), but really everybody except Perriman was over 20 yards per-catch.

Get over that crutch-receiver crap.  Like Rodgers, Brees, Mahomes, Goff, and a few others (yes including Big Ben), Baker Mayfield does not need a crutch receiver.

Burning a high draft pick on one would be wasteful and inefficient.  As it stands, opposing defenses can't key on any of Mayfield's receivers.

That's an advantage.  BAD quarterbacks need crutches.  They have trouble reading through progressions.  They need a bigger target who can overpower and out-jump coverage.

Randy Moss made Daunte Culpepper's carreer.  When he got to the Patriots,  Tom Brady continued to spread the ball around, as he had before and has since.  Culpepper needed him.  Brady didn't.

Plus, in addition to a rejuvinated Brashad Perriman, in the "big/fast" category is Rodney Ratleyfield, and Higgins has trancended his scouting reports too.

As we have seen, the catch-radius stuff hardly matters with this quarterback.  Callaway is 5'11".  Ditto Landry.

Now you think what Mayfield needs is some facsimile of Randy Moss?

Chuh!

So what do the Browns really need?

The best available player.

...or a scary passrushing defensive end, since Ogbah hasn't worked out as well as I'd expected.  (Genard Avery is the next James Harrison, but he can't put his hand in the dirt).

...or maybe another offensive tackle.  Dorsey can't bank on Des Harrison, and Robinson/Hubbard have been just okay.

OLB maybe.  Jamie Collins hasn't lived up to his contract, and Kirksey is overrated.

DT?  Yeah maybe.  Ogunjobi is fine, but not the other guy.

There's more to this:

Austin Corbett isn't a "bust".  He is a candidate at right tackle, as well as the three inside positions.  It's also possible that Dorsey trades somebody to make room for Corbett to start.

It's just barely 2019 and I'm getting hammered with craprap and can't think anymore okbye








Saturday, December 29, 2018

Browns Talk on NFL Radio: Over 30 Minutes: Mayfield the PUNK

Punker Punkfield might lack class and maturity (for now), but his classlessness and immaturity are offset by not only his talent, but his charisma and leadership.

Per MKC, Breshard Perriman (and Robinson, and Higgins) attribute most of their recent carreer revivals to Mayfield's "confidence" in them.

Punk Baker Mayfield is a born leader.

I've been a boss a lot in my life, and I might add a very good one.  Without going into detail, I was good at not being an asshole, and getting my peeps to cooperate (and ostracize those who didn't).

But Mayfield is special.  That's the "charisma" part.  Tell me: Why did Perriman stop dropping passes?  Why did Robinson suddenly become a servicable left tackle?

How did Higgins become a deep threat?  How did Callaway remember how to catch (and learn to run precise short patterns)?

Freddie Kitchens deserves a lot of credit for scheming guys open and strategic stuff, but I have to give Punkfield credit for a lot of this.

No listen: It's almost trancendental.  Baker taps these guys with his magic wand and they get better!

"He has confidence in me"...somehow, that's all it takes!

Well it's a little deeper than that: The standards are raised, along with expectations.  Nobody wants to get left behind.

Callaway just saw Coleman dumped--then Gordon.  

Punkfield is exploiting this.  I said he was childish and classless, but I never said he wasn't smart.

Punker is not just throwing pinpoint passes and salvaging broken plays, but he's also making the rest of the team better.

Make no mistake: Nick Chubb is a stud, but Punker Punkfield is THE one player who has turned this team around.

Greg Robinson is better than he was, but Punker makes him look better as he evades passrushers that beat him.  He makes Higgins and Perriman look better because he sees the whole field and his only favorite receiver is the open reciever (the deeper the better).

Punker gave Perriman a chance.  He caught the pass.  So he threw to him again.

It's not that complicated!  Punker will throw to people who don't drop passes!  He likes underdogs, because he was one himself.

"Bring me your poor, your weak, your first round busts and no-names, and I will win with them."

When Jackson and Dorsey were fired, the bar was immediately raised.

Credit Kitchens with running a common sense offense and unleashing Punkfield, but it was Punker who took it from there.

They see his decisive pinpoint passes.  They see him evade pressure, buy extra time, and as often as not pull off a big play when things break down.

This is the "uncharted" part of a quarterback's influence on a team:

The linemen don't have to protect him all day, and see how he bails them out when they're beaten.  The receivers see how nearly every pass is on the money and on-time.

The least they can do is their jobs, right?  And more!?! This is how a great quarterback elevates all the players around him: He raises the bar.

I look forward to the eventual adult version of Punker Punkfield.  He'll be even better once his teammates aren't getting emarrassed by him, and the guys on NFL Radio can talk about how good he is instead of what a punk he is.

Solomon Wilcotts said it: He'd like to talk about all the great stuff Baker Mayfield has done, and he's forced to talk about this childish "stare-down" in particular, and his abuse of Hue Jackson in general.

Solly never said it, but I heard it:  GROW UP.






Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Why Browns Should Beat Ravens, DePodesta, the Coach-Search, and DUH

It has finally begun to start to dawn on somebody besides me that Paul DePodesta, and not Sashi Brown, is the "analytics" guy...and that he is still here.

He will have something to say about the Browns' coaching search and does answer to Haslam (not Dorsey).  However, those who were listening heard Jimmy Haslam say that John Dorsey has full control of the search, and will make the final decision.

Speaking of the search, as Dan Justik points out, Rodney Kitchenfield is gaining traction as a Head Coach candidate; as possibly the next Sean McVay.

There are a few problems with that:

1: Not all great Offensive Coordinators are cut out to be great Head Coaches.  Would Freddie still run the offense, or would he step back and replace himself?  Where would he find anybody as good at that as he is?

2: Freddie has only been an OC for part of one season.  He's a prodigy, but...Head Coach?  Already?

3: Gregg Williams couldn't stand for the demotion (who could?)  So here comes a new Defensive Coordinator and a new defensive system on the eve of contention in the AFC North.

Paul DePodesta is more likely than not going to recommend a short-term extention for Gregg Williams as Head Coach, and giving Freddie Kitchens a big fat raise.

This covers the "not broke" present, and the future.  (And don't write Gregg Williams off in any time-frame!  Freddie is all the rage, but Rodney Williamsfield has had everything to do with this renaissance!  The defense has improved dramatically as well!)

Sometimes analytics is just common sense.

Baltimore writer Vasilis Lericos wrote an excellent analysis of the upcoming Browns-Ravens game.

While Vasilis, like the vast majority of analysts, expect the Ravens to hold serve at home and in crunch-time, this local guy went out of his way to explore how the Browns could upset their apple cart.

After reading this Hensley guy covering the Ravens, this guy is a breath of fresh air (Hensley is biased and arrogant).

Anyway, the fact that the Ravens just went to San Diego and trashed none other than the Chargers is terrifying.

But the matchups matter, and here are some differences between the Chargers and the Browns:

1: The Chargers' guards and center are average or below.  Pouncey, in particular, is vulnerable to big nose-tackles, who drive him into the backfield.

The Browns are all above average inside, and RT Hubbard has joined them.  Overall, the Browns' offensive line is better than the Chargers'.

2: Philip Rivers is a classic pocket-passer.  He can get rid of the ball quickly sometimes, but when deprived of a pocket and chased around, he can't improvise well.

Baker Mayfield can. NT Brandon Williams and RDE Micheal Pierce headline the Ravens' front three.  Pierce, who is as good as they come, plays in front of or next to Terrelle Suggs, who usually blitzes himself.

Pierce frankly forces double-teams, and vs the Chargers, this allowed Williams to repeatedly deposit Pouncey in Rivers' lap (and blow up runs).

Vs the Browns, it won't work like that.  Suggs will have a better chance of beating Robinson than he did the Chargers' left tackle, but the inside triad matches up with the Ravens' front three better.

The Ravens linebackers and secondary did a great job of stepping on the Chargers' shorter routes, and closing in on the run.

This, they can do to the Browns.  The difference here is that Baker Mayfield, unlike Rivers, can buy time with his legs, and deliver strikes on the move.

You can be aggressive and cover like that only for around five seconds.  After that, you have a Callaway or Njoku or whoever open and postal.  If you haven't nailed the quarterback, that penjulum swings to the offense.

I fully expect this historically good Ravens defense to mess with the Browns' offense all day long.  But I don't think it can do to the Browns what it did to the Chargers.

The Browns already beat the Ravens, and that was no accident.  Since that game, the Browns' offense (and Mayfield) have become a lot more proficient.

While the Ravens and Jackson have likewise started clicking, there's still no comparing the two offenses.

Kudos to Harbaugh for maxing out what he has, but in reality, he doesn't have that much.

Lamar Jackson has a lot of Micheal Vick in him, complete with all of the issues Vick had early in his carreer.

His strongest (educated, objective) supporters don't expect him to ever become very accurate.  He's a freak athlete with a great arm who will drive defensive coordinators bonkers trying to figure out how to stop him.

As Vasilis states, if the Ravens fall behind by much, and Jackson has to throw the ball...that's not good.

Over the last few games, the Browns defense has ranked at least in the top ten.  The Ravens offense...not.  

It is VERY possible that the Browns will score first, even if it's a field goal.  It is very unlikely that the Ravens will EVER get more than 7 points ahead, and Baker Mayfield (or Nick Chubb) can erase that in one play.

Vasilis sees this:  The Browns can come back (especially late, vs a fatigued defense).  The Ravens probably can't.  The Ravens' offense is limited.  The Browns' offense has all the tools, including the (much) better quarterback.

Having said all that, I have to retract my guarantee that the Browns will stomp the Ravens in Baltimore.  The Ravens have a chance to win.

...a snowball's chance in hell.

A few details:  Fells and Njoku look to start, so Freddie Kitchens looks like he'll run a "12" offensive group with Chubb and two tight ends again.

This locks the Ravens into their 3-4 base defense, because it's technically a "jumbo" run formation, with extra blockers.

With some offenses, this is no big deal, but with the Browns and *Mayfield*/Kitchens, Darrin Fells catches passes too.

The two tight ends match up with 3-4 outside linebackers in space on runs or on "max-protect" (usually deep) passes, but I digress:

This personnel group, along with Baker Mayfield's mobility and improvisational skills, forces a defense to not to send more than four passrushers, and forces those four to stay "in their lanes", and not "sell out"; it stifles a defense that needs to stop the run.

This is smart vs the Ravens.  As I've already said, the matchups inside between these teams are at best a wash, and twin tight ends short-circuit edge-rushes and can buy or seal off the edge on runs.

The trade-off is slight: There are still two wide receivers (presumably Landry and Callaway).  Contrary to obsolete propaganda, these two are now scary enough to warrant attention and keep the free safety back (because you-know-who is the quarterback).

The Ravens were able to stifle underneath routes vs Philip Rivers, but the Chargers didn't use two tight ends, and were a lot weaker inside too...

Long story short, this Browns' offense should be able to run the ball vs the Ravens.  (2 YPC in the first quarter.  3.5 YPC in the second, and do the math.)

I look at the PFF matchups here, and see an overall stalemate on both sides of the ball, except at quarterback (and this matters).

The Ravens have a scary rushing offense with Max Williams and Gus Edwards, and FOUR really good tight ends (plus Jackson, of course).

They won't get cute.  They'll load up and try to steamroll Gregg Williams' defense (and of course use play-fakes, read-options, rollouts etc).

This sounds terrifying, but over the last five games, it's been "just enough" for the Ravens.  I don't think it will be enough vs this Division rival or this quarterback...or running back, or offensive line.

And this time, Gregg Williams and Freddie Kitchens are in charge, and Mayfield has several games under his belt.  

Do you expect the Browns to lose?  If so, I get it.  In Baltimore, the Ravens in all-or-nothing mode, coming off stomping the Chargers, top two defense...

I personally expect the Browns to overcome all that and beat the Ravens, because they're younger, more talented, and have Baker Mayfield.

...oh yeah and a decent kicker.

PS one thing this Hue Jackson "stare-down" bullcrap has proven to me is that Baker Mayfield wants badly to ruin the Ravens' day, even though it helps the Steelers.

...as long as he can screw somebody...

Nah that's not fair: Mayfield simply needs to WIN.

I take the childish taunting of Hue Jackson kind of in-stride myself, because Baker is just "all that".

He's not just maybe at least as accurate as Drew Brees, with Aaron Rodgers' athleticism and arm, but he's already a strong leader.

I've mentioned the coaches, but the main reason I think the Browns will beat the Ratbirds is Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield vs Jackson?  No contest.  Mayfield vs the Ravens defense?  Ok that's problematic, but I remember:

Brian Sipe vs the Steel Curtain Steelers defense.  Sipe with his popgun arm;  unable to rifle passes to the edges or into small windows; MUCH smaller than Mayfield...

Mayfield is Sipe on steroids.  He's just as intelligent and "slippery"; he has all the same instincts.  But Baker Mayfield is bigger, taller, faster, and has a MUCH better arm.

Brian Sipe couldn't rifle passes into tight windows like Mayfield can, but he was the NFL MVP one time, and all-pro and Pro-Bowl several times.

Sipe and Mayfield are very similar mentally/psychologically...

Baker Mayfield is Sipe on steroids.  He's also Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers all mixed up (DEAL with it!)

...anyhoo, the Browns will probably beat the Ratbirds because the Browns' quarterback will find a way to win.

This seems stupid to say, but I think that with all else evenly matched, the better quarterback should win.

...but that's just me.

PS yep: Read the comments: Baker Mayfield can do no wrong.  The Branch Bakerian cult is already entrenched.

Baker, I don't care if you don't care what I think. Here is something for you not to care about:  

Quit being a PUNK.

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Cowherd was (gag) Right: Grow Up, Baker Mayfield (and Don Rickles you Aint)

I'll have to take a long shower after saying this, but I agree with Colon Cowherd -ack...ack---

I saw that Baker Mayfield "stare-down" tape with Hue Jackson, and it was classless and immature.

Hue Jackson failed utterly, and has to live that down now.  He was fired.  That's not enough for Baker Punkfield.  He has to kick sand in his face and rub his nose in it every chance he gets.

Certainly, some things went down between these guys behind closed doors, and to Baker's credit, he played the good soldier while Hue was here.

Hue declared Tyrod Taylor the Browns' starter (ie no competition, and no matter what).  That bothered a lot of fans, and football professionals, let alone Mayfield himself.

Is that all there was, or did Hue tell him "You're not ready yet", or something?

Whatever:  That kind of taunting is indeed childish.  "I won you lost see that?  Look I beat you!  Haha are you going to cry now?  How does losing feel?  Etc etc etc etc etc"

GROW UP, Baker!

Some of the ex-players and pundits like that Baker likes to kick guys when they're down, but that's because he's so good, he can do no wrong in their eyes.

And Saint Baker didn't "roast" Cowherd on Twitter.  Saying "ya grinch" isn't a "roast".  Already the CULT has formed, and the Branch Bakerians are starting to worship this guy!

The "stare-down" juvenile delinquent stuff is already swept under the rug, and "ya grinch" is a "hilarious roast" (Don Rickles eat your heart out).

Are we going to need to start deprogramming people here?  Thank God Mayfield hasn't started giving sermons yet, right?

Having said all that, I'm done.  Baker Mayfield is awesome, except when he acts like a 12 year-old bully.  I expect him to outgrow it.

I remember nasty, abusive punks like him growing up.  I met them later, after we'd both grown up a bit, and they mostly turned into decent people.

The thing is, they were all still younger than Baker Mayfield---nevermind.  I'm making a mountain out of a mole hill.  I'm still 90% in Baker's corner, and 98% can't even take Colon Cowherd seriously.

Sunday, December 23, 2018

Baker Mayfield and the 2018 Browns ARE ALREADY better than "Good". DUH

The Browns should have stomped the Bengals worse than they did, but this was an intra-division thing, and these contests are usually closer in reality than they look on paper.

But they won--despite the DROPs.

Njoku and Landry redeemed themselves, and this matters:

Kitchens didn't spazz out, and niether did Mayfield.  Both Njoku and Landry redeemed themselves.

Pump-the Brakes Terry Pluto is getting on my nerves.

Terry says that the Browns are on the verge of becoming a good team!  What does Terry think of Mayfield?  He might become a good quarterback eventually?

That's a good bet, since Terry is among those who think that "developing" Mayfield is THE critical factor as the Browns search for the next Head Coach (who will, of course, replace Williams and maybe Kitchens too, no matter what).

I don't get it: How can you watch Baker Mayfield through this season and still think he needs a "Yoda"?  How can you watch the post-Hue/Todd Browns and say they're "on the verge of becoming good"?

Jeez I suppose Baker Mayfield is getting close to becoming above average!!!

Ohmmm...ohmmmm...

Anyway, with regret, I have to accept that I have trancsended Terry Pluto as a Browns analyst.

I suspect that Terry has Stockholm Syndrome, or at the very least has acute asteriskitis.

Asteriskitis sufferers are compelled to be "neutral" between any two sides of a given argument, regardless of how obviously either side is wrong.

But I digress:

Baker Mayfield/the Browns are not "on the verge" of "becoming" a "good" QB/team.

Come 2019...wow.

DEAL with it, Terry!  Hang your wet blanket out to dry!  

...nevermind okbye




How the Browns can Beat the Bengals: Keys to the Game

What needs to happen for the Browns to beat the Bengals?  The Browns need to show up.

Keys to a Browns victory vs the Bengals:

1: Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry, Duke Johnson, Nick Chubb OR David Njoku must play at least one half.

2: Eleven players must play on defense.

3: Marvin Lewis must coach the Bengals.

4: The Browns must hold Joe Mixon to under 350 total yards.

But seriously.  That's about it.

I want to thank Josh Gordon for not playing any more.  I don't actually hate the Patriots, but I'm kinda sick of them, and of all these pundits pretending Brady is as good as ever and this is a "next man up" situation.

Not saying the Bills will beat them.  Just sayin it would be cool.

Speaking of irrationality,  anybody else notice that Terrence Mitchell is back?  

Well, quit blabbering about how the Browns suck vs the pass.  They suck vs the pass when they start a third string cornerback.  Hell, they didn't even have ONE starter for a couple games (Ward missed time too)!

Bold prediction:  Duke Johnson will be allowed out of his cage today.

Duke is being paid too much money for the roles he plays, and (although I love the guy), a trade might be best for him, as well as for the team.

Dorsey has probably asked the Coaches to "showcase" him some in a game they're going to dominate.

So he might get 10-12 carries and 5 catches or something.

Maybe they'll wait til Chubb has 90 yards or so, and let Duke play more in the second half tee-hee


Friday, December 21, 2018

Being Negative is Okay Mike, but it Requires Real Evidence.

I like Mike Lukas a lot.  He's knowledgeable and entertaining.  But sometimes, he is wrong.

It's true that in the second half of the Texans' game, the Texans were protecting a 24-point lead, which helps explain Baker Mayfield's ungodly passing numbers.

But that's not all there was to it.  The Texans still sent four passrushers most of the time.  They did not soften their coverage much, if at all.

The other part of this is that Baker Mayfield learned and adapted...immediately.  You could say "yeah but" in re 240 yards or so, but not 347 yards in one half.

I watched the game.  The Texans kept a lid on the receivers to force shorter throws in the second half, but actually covered those receivers.  Mayfield made a bunch of pinpoint throws to defeat it, and let his guys run with the ball.

The Browns defense is ranked 24th against the run.  Last week, they probably ranked 27th.  At one point, they were at least 30th.

The bulk of this ugly stat was built during the first half of the season.  The Browns were often playing from behind.  They played the Steelers twice, the Saints, Chiefs, Panthers, and Chargers.

Find me a defense that has shut these running games down.

Ward, Mitchell, and Randall got most of the interceptions.

So what?

The Browns haDDD trouble turning those takewaways into points.

Here again, Mike needs to separate current from season-long stats, and might also consider who the coaches (and quarterbacks and running backs) were as well.

Nor does the fact that earlier iterations of this teams' offense failed to convert negate the fact that the Browns defense got all those takeaways, as Mike implies it does.

Mike makes a good point about the team's overall sacks.  It's been Myles Garrett and guys named Joe.

It does matter that since Randall has been here, the "book" on how to attack the Browns defense by air is with quick underneath passes.

PFF ranks them high in hurries, hits, forced throws, and pressure has caused the majority of the defense's interceptions.

Baker Mayfield's QBR is 50.2 (25th), ergo he is having a typical rookie season.

Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Rosen, and Lamar Jackson are having typical rookie seasons.  Mayfield is making all of them look sick.

PFF ranks Mayfield in the top five overall in several categories, and easily twelvth overall (81.4)

Mike really had to dig deep to find that discredited, obsolete measurement, and he had to actually try to ignore all the numbers that do matter.

Under pressure.  In the Red Zone.  Third and fourth down efficiency.  Effectiveness on extended throws.  Yards per-attempt.  Accuracy.

Numbers don't tell the whole story, either.  This rookie changes plays at the line and is almost always right when he does.  He's already passed up a lot of veterans.

I guess Mike just wanted to be "different" or something.

A swing and a miss.

Maybe next time I'll put on my ass basher hat and list all the real problems the Browns have, so Mike can see how it's done.


Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Jabrill Peppers are the Hottest. Browns Stuff

1: Sashi Brown draft pick Jabrill Peppers has emerged in his SECOND NFL season, and this is beginning to dawn on non-me pundits of late.

Gee I thought Peppers was a BUST (not).

The late-comers to the Peppers party comprehend that he is a better strong safety than free safety (for now, anyway), but not the fact that he's not just a strong safety in this Gregg Williams defense.

Gregg Williams no doubt lobbied for Peppers in the 2017 draft because John Harbaugh used him as a linebacker/safety hybrid---exactly fitting the profile of a Gregg Williams-specific niche-player.

Screw 2017.  Gregg had Derrick Kindred, and no real free safety.  Peppers had the athletic tools to play free safety, so Gregg--sans alternatives--tried him there.

That didn't work, but get over it.

NOW, Jabrill Peppers is playing roughly the same role he played in college; NOT "strong safety" DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

Peppers is a run-and-hit guy.  He can man up on tight ends, but not on shifty running backs.

Peppers has an exceptional size-speed ratio, good instincts, and...well he's really just kind of...maybe the fastest linebacker you've ever seen.

In today's NFL, the base defenses are nickels and dimes (see previous posts...if you need to...you really shouldn't...nevermind)

Jabrill Peppers replaces a linebacker in nickel and dime defenses (as well as playing strong safety in the occasionally-used 4-3 base defense).

This gets contemplated, but you need to trust me on this one: Jabrill Peppers racing around all over the field 85+% of the time is a GOOD thing, and it doesn't matter what label you put on him.

Jabrill Peppers "slid" in the 2017 draft (after being initially projected as a top 10 pick) because:

1: He didn't get interceptions, or otherwise make big plays.  He was a great athlete (and a great special teamer), but (aside from that) not a "playmaker".

2: He didn't have a clear role. Was he a linebacker? A strong safety?  

Rodney Sashifield drafted him low in the first round after trading down from Saint Wentz (Peppers was one of a BUNCH of proceeds off that trade).

We can argue about not drafting Wentz or Jackson or Mahomes (err...not drafting Mahomes looks idiotic, even now)...

But all that was Sashi Brown, and John Dorsey drafted both Mahomes and Mayfield.

You people need to give Rodney Brownfield his props.  Sashi Brown built the core of this team.

The Browns might just have the best interior offensive line in the NFL.

Njoku is evolving as a receiver, but is also becoming a good in-line BLOCKER.  I mean, a REAL tight end!

Garrett is obvious, but how 'bout Ogunjobi?

Then there's Field Marshall Joe Schobert.

Don't dismiss Higgins or Jamie Collins, either. Trevon Coley hasn't been "all that" in 2018, but Gregg Williams still starts him.

Brien Boddy Calhoun has had a crappy season thus far, but if you write his 2016-2017 seasons off, you're mentally impaired.  The least Calhoun is now is quality depth at cornerback and free safety.

John Dorsey has obviously upgraded everything massively, but Denzel Ward (for one) was a draft pick he got from Sashi Brown.

Baker Mayfield first overall was (to me) a no-brainer for Dorsey.  Those who say that Dorsey could have drafted Mayfield 4th overall are idiots.

First, idiocy and artificial hype aside, Baker Mayfield was obviously the best quarterback in this draft class, because intelligence and accuracy (not to mention leadership) outweighs height, and...

Jeez wtf is WRONG with you people!??

Sashi Brown (probably due to Hue Jackson's contractually dictated veto power) traded down and let John Dorsey draft this chump named Mahomes.

First off, I saw Mahomes as the obvious pick (as I posted).  

But nooo...

Fortunately, it worked out.  The same guy who traded up for Mahomes came to Cleveland and drafted Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield vs Mahomes will be a debate for the next decade or so.  

Mahomes is bigger and stronger (but screw the combine results: He's not faster in real games).

Mahomes has a stronger arm, and can do more damage throwing off-balance "all-arm", but Baker is more accurate.

I'm not saying that Baker Mayfield is better than Patrick Mahomes.  I'm only saying that Sashi Brown should have drafted Mahomes (like I advised him to---damn that commications glitch)...

But it worked out.  Baker Mayfield can toe the line with Patrick Mahomes (as he did in college), and the reason he left Texas Tech.

Baker Mayfield walked on at Oklahoma because Patrick Mahomes was about to take his job at Texas Tech.

Nothing against Mahomes here:  He just did his best, and was deemed better than Mayfield (no research here; did Texas Tech want a dual threat? Seems likely.)

Anyway, Baker didn't take it personally, as he considers Mahomes a "freind".

But Baker couldn't accept being a backup, and he stepped UP to the highest level of competition when he left Texas Tech for Oklahoma.

He never looked back.  He duked it out with Mahomes later on, and Mayfield threw for 545 yards and 7 touchdowns.

... but Mahomes set an NCAA record with 888 yards!

Joe Mixon (now with the Bengals) racked up 263 rushing and 114 receiving yards for the Sooners in that game.

Baker Mayfield's Sooners won, despite Mayfeld's paltry 545 passing yards.  I don't think Baker will throw for 545 yards this sunday, but Nick Chubb might run for 263😁

🎇🛣️༑


Sunday, December 16, 2018

Mayfield in 2019 Pro Bowl, Chubb=Gurley in 2019, Bengals Doomed

I just had a text-convo with my pal Bub, who actually watches college football, and first turned me on to Baker Mayfield well ahead of the 2018 draft.

At the time, I was just absorbing all the "expert" opinions on this historic draft class, and the consensus was that Sam Darnold was the best of the bunch.

Baker Mayfield was too short, and had "off the field" issues, and was being compared by some to Johnny Manswell.  He ran an air-raid offense, and might never fit in the NFL.

But Bub said Mayfield was the best, period.  So I checked him out for myself.

I was astonished by how many of these experts manage to talk themselves out of the obvious.

Mayfield's average yards per-attempt stat was among the highest of all those quarterbacks, and his completion percentage was the highest, by a significant margin.

He ran a kind of air-raid offense, but jeez so did everybody else except Josh Rosen!  

Mayfield was the most successful of all of them, at the highest level of competition.

I could find NO negative comments about his personality, work ethic, leadership, intelligence...in fact everybody loved him.

Then, I made a point of watching Georgia vs Oklahoma in the semi-finals.  Oklahoma lost, but that wasn't on Mayfield.  (Actually, Nick Chubb had a lot to do with it).

I was impressed.  Mayfield is a junk yard dog.  If you keep getting up and throw for around 400 yards, it's not your fault if you lose.

I saw one of the best quarterbacks I'd ever seen, under the lights.  His touch and accuracy were...well I don't think Joe Montana was any better.

He looked like Aaron Rodgers/Drew Brees.

I wondered how the hell all these experts could think that Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, or (for cryin out loud) Josh Allen was better than Baker Mayfield.

Now, after ten starts in the NFL, Baker Mayfield ranks in the top five in four or five quarterback categories, and easily in the top ten overall.

It's not a mirage, or a fluke. He did it under Todd Haley at first (classic drops, vertical routes), and managed to succeed despite this idiotic waste of his talent.

When Mywayorthehighway Haley was fired and Freddie Kitchens took over, Baker shot "up the charts".

Baker Mayfield was never anything other than above average, even as he was suppressed by Todd Haley.

The first half vs the Texans was horrific, but he erased it in the second half of the very same game (threw for nearly 400 yards).

He screwed up a lot vs the Broncos most recently, but his "bad game" still produced a clutch (4 for 4) go-ahead touchdown drive in the clutch, and an 88-plus QBR.

These are his FLOOR.  Even when he "sucks", he's above average!  As a ROOKIE.

Imagine what Baker Mayfield will be like after an offseason of film-study and review of his rookie season.  

I texted Bub that none of the other quarterbacks in the 2018 draft class were in Mayfield's zip code.  He texted back that none of the quarterbacks drafted in the last decade were in his time zone.

Bub is right.  (Well kinda.  I mean Andrew Luck and Mahomes are definitely in his zip code, and Goff in his time zone)...

We can argue about Wentz and Watson, but as it turns out, the Browns have a quarterback who is better than both of them.

Already.

Thanks for shaming me into saying it out loud, Bub.

I'm watching the Rams play the Eagles.  I'm watching Gurley, because I want to see Nick Chubb 2.0.

I've superficially checked out the Browns vs Bengals matchup on PFF.  The Browns have them outgunned on both sides of the ball overall (I was surprised by the degree of this).

The Bengals offensive line is just plain bad.  Tyler Boyd is scary, and so is Mixon, but everybody else (except for left tackle Boling, who is marginally above average), is average or below.

The Browns' offense vs the Bengals defense isn't as much of a mismatch, but still tilts significantly to the Browns.

The Bengals did just stomp the Raiders, but keep that in context: The Browns are better than the Raiders, plus are Division rivals.

Driskel was 14-33 with a pick and interception.  Mixon ran all over them.  Boyd led the receivers with 4 catches for 38 yards.

Driskel did run for 38 yards, and did spread the ball around evenly to 7 receivers, so he's smart (if not accurate).

I haven't seen the defensive stats yet, but clearly the Bengals defense did a fine job: The Raiders' offense (and Carr in particular) had been on a roll.

Still, the Bengals are doomed.  Gregg Williams is intimately familiar with this team, and they're missing Dalton and Green now.

The Browns just ran all over the Broncos in Denver, and stuffed Lindsay.  They stomped a mudhole in the Bengals (with Dalton), and they'll do it again.

I'll get into more detail later, but for now I think they'll run them over offensively and take their balls away defensively.