Remember this, and if you don't remember, consider it with your brain:
Shortly after this time last season, the Philadelphia Eagles re-signed fine crystal quarterback Sam Bradford to yet another massively inflated contract. Regardless of what came since, this was idiotic. Bradford has elite talent, but has spent at least one third of his career on IR, and has accomplished nothing of consequence.
But then, a lot of people, including me, thought they were idiots for trading the much younger and cheaper Nick Foles for Bradford in the last year of his massively inflated contract.
Nick Foles fell on his face. Bradford played well, and only missed a few games. But then they had to re-sign him, and his demands were as rediculous as we all knew they would be.
Roseman got him down, just a little, but re-signed him, and crossed his fingers. Then he met Carson Wentz at the Senior Bowl. It was love at first sight.
He traded some of his highest picks in 2016 and 2017 to move up to draft this quarterback. He fully intended for this second overall pick to sit on the bench for at least most of his rookie season.
I have to admit that this part of it was smart. "Immediate impact" my ass, he's a quarterback!
Anyway, he lucked out. Bradford predictably got injured, Wentz unpredictably stepped in and kicked ass, Bridgewater got maimed, and Minnesota coughed up a first round pick and then some for Bradford and his rediculous salary.
Roseman is being called a genius now, but lucked out more than anything else. Nor is this the end of the story.
Once defenses drew a bead on Wentz, he hit a wall. I'm not going to bash him. His supporting cast wasn't great, and his defense underperformed. He was, after all, a rookie. He has a lot of upside left.
But look what happened: The Eagles didn't get anywhere. The first rounder they got for Bradford hardly dents the picks they gave up for Wentz. The Eagles need more talent AROUND Wentz, and need to hit free agency hard to get there.
And yes, there are questions about the quarterback the lowly insane moneyball beancounting Browns traded down from.
Wentz has a very high floor. At worst, he will be above average. But is he a franchise guy, who can take the team on his shoulders when neccessary? Because if he's not, it was the Eagles, and not the Browns, who screwed up.
Stop it! Cody Kessler outperformed Carson Wentz. Stick a fork in yourself-you're done. And he might just KEEP outperforming him, too!
Don't get me wrong. I think Paul DePodesta is wrong: Wentz already IS a top 20 quarterback, and might become a top 10 quarterback, or higher. But get me right: Cody Kessler is right there with him.
Dak Prescott is the best rookie so far, but wow look at the talent he's surrounded with! It MATTERS, don't you know! Kessler is the one who was stuck in the worst situation. Can you deny that?
One thing that the Browns will do that the Eagles tried to do is to keep any rookie quarterback in the nursery, to be spritzed and fertilized, while the veterans manage games...regardless of how high they draft him. Quarterbacks have to make immediate impacts only if you are on the verge of being fired.
Jeff Fisher tried to do this with Goff, as well. Finally he was forced to play him. The results were borderline disasterous.
That's not because Goff sucks. It's because he had a weak supporting cast, and wasn't ready YET. But the Rams, too, drafted Goff first overall with the intention of sitting him down in year one.
Mary Kay Cabbot feels the Browns should draft Trubisky first AND trade number twelve for Jimmy Garopollo (if they can, and if they can work out a contract in advance).
She says that ideally, both of them work out, and in a year or two, the other can be turned back into a first round pick. If only one of the two becomes the franchise guy, then at least the decades long quarterback issue has been resolved, and the Browns have great depth at the position.
I respect her logic, but can't agree, because I feel that she, like everyone else except Hue Jackson, is selling Kessler short.
I have no idea what Hue Jackson will do, but two new options revealed themselves at the Senior Bowl (see previous post).
The one Hue himself coached was Davis Webb, who has the ideal stature and the stronger arm.
In the past, I've cited statistics on the much steeper odds against quarterbacks drafted below the first round, but you can throw these out the window for those who make strong impressions during Senior Bowl week; and especially for those their teammates name MVPs.
The guy last year was Dak Prescott. A few years ago, it was Russell Wilson.
Hue now knows Davis Webb well. Webb did quite well.
To make absolutely sure, the Browns could draft him in the third, but the fourth could work.
Now we can make Big Joe happy and take the passrusher first. Mayock says it's Garrett. Others question Garrett's "motor", and say he takes plays off. I don't know, but for now I go with the guy I trust: Mayock.
However, Gregg Williams might prefer Jonathan Allen, who is a little shorter and much bigger, since he could play under-tackle in his 4-3, as well as 3-4 DE.
Garrett is the better player, but not an efficient scheme fit. Ogbah shows promise. Nassib should be bigger, stronger, and better in season two. Xavier Cooper for now is the best fit at weakside tackle, and that is a bigger question mark.
CBSsports has actually moved Allen over to defensive tackle on it's big board, where he's on top.
If Webb is a target, and Allen is a target, then a trade-down is suddenly very much in play.
At twelve, it looks like another defensive player, or yet another trade-down and a big man cornerback.
This draft is loaded with tight ends. The Browns have Seth DeValve for the H-back version. Gary Barnidge is aging, and isn't a great blocker either. Hue needs a real tight end who can both block and catch to run his full offense.
Jeremy Sprinkle should be available in the fourth round, but the freak here is OJ Howard, who has a good chance of going in the first. Howard is comparable to Ed Reed. Sprinkle is like Barnidge, if Barnidge were to bother to block well.
Trade down(s) could work well in this draft. Six of the top seven cornerbacks are 6' tall, and the other is 5'11". Malik Hooker or Jabrill Peppers could slide. As many as three quarterbacks and Garrett could go in the top five or six.
Don't tell Grossi, ok?
Anyway, now you know what to think, and how to think it. You're welcome.
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