Defending the Cleveland Browns

Dawg Pound Daily analyst Thomas Moore wrote a terrific article dispelling three myths about the 2016 Cleveland Browns.  It was quite lawyerly, and will get this response from permabashers:

"Yawull...but..."

I especially appreciated the third myth Tom blew to atoms, as it had to do with analytics.

He tells you what I've been telling you, but, I must admit, more clearly and articulately, which is why I had to provide this link.

In a nutshell, the word "analytics" is a label, now stigmatized.  In reality, several dominating Superbowl teams and dynastic winners have used in-depth mathematical analysis for decades.  Two of the earliest ones were Paul Brown and Tom Landry (with Gil Brandt).

Today's analysts simply have access to more sophisticated tools, and more information.

Analytics can be used to explain things to dumb people.  Paul DePodesta pointed out that rookies played on 25% of the total snaps in 2016, "so that's what Hue was working with".

Is any of this sinking in yet?  Hello?

This was the first year of the rebuild, so this number should begin to decline next season.  2016's rookies will return as veterans.  They will screw up less, be familiar with their teammates and roles, and even in most cases quicker, bigger, stronger, etc.

They won't be finished products yet.  Running backs aside, with rare exceptions, players don't actually hit their strides until their third seasons, or approach their peaks until their fourth.

But between years one and two, they make their biggest improvements.

For all the Chicken Little talk about massive talent deficits, in reality much of this roster will be stabalizing next season.

Quickly jumping from position to position, they have their running backs (and don't forget Atkinson), wide receivers (yes they do), and probably even their offensive line.

Ok I heard that, so let's synopsize my earlier entry: The three on IR will be back next season, Shon Coleman is the leader in the right tackle race with Erving breathing down his neck, and...well that's enough.  Not that they won't still draft an eventual left tackle and/or another center.

Gary Barnidge is getting old, Seth DeValve is really a giant wide receiver, Telfer is a blocker, so Hue Jackson could sure use another tight end who can block AND catch, but it's not a big emergency.

I don't believe Reynolds is going anywhere, or Calhoun, or the two other young safeties, and I don't believe Haden is done yet.  There are now too many defensive ends and linebackers, and Shelton.  

They could use a BIG cornerback, and of course any position could be upgraded.

Yes, a real stud defensive tackle next to Shelton could turn this into a scary and deep 4-3, a real super-safety would be nice, and of course the eventual franchise quarterback is probably not on the current roster.

Yes, the Browns do have 14 overall and five top 80 draft picks, but rookies still won't be taking 25% of the snaps next season.

Nobody will be knocking Thomas, Bitonio, Corey Coleman, Pryor, Crowell, Duke, Shelton, Ogbah, Nassib, Collins, or Haden to the bench.  

Indeed, Sashi Brown might well start trading some of his 2017 picks for future picks a round higher.

Your negative hyperbole aside, much of the improvement we can expect from this season to next season is built into the current roster.  

A guy like Myles Garrett would of course start instantly, but unless the quarterback lives in New England and has an Italian last name, he probably won't even start.  A new starting cornerback is a real possibility.  We could see a rookie center or right tackle, but probably not both.

Beyond that, you get to diminishing returns.  If Ed Reynolds looks like an above average free safety who can also make all the correct calls, is it worth burning a high draft pick on a guy who you hope will be a little better?

I mean, as opposed to trading that second rounder for a first rounder in 2018, and letting Reynolds continue to improve and stabalize your secondary?

Personally, I would prioritize big cornerbacks, a real tight end, a Joe Thomas heir apparant, a quarterback naturally.  Unless a player is truly exceptional, the Browns don't actually need safeties, linebackers, defensive linemen, more than one offensive lineman, running backs, or wide receivers.
, Hell, maybe Sashi will even trade UP this time!

Especially when the Browns will be chasing YOUNG free agents more aggressively this season.  They might only sign a couple, and they might not be stars, but would probably be integral players.

In still older entries, I try to get Black Cloud to comprehend that it doesn't take that long to rebuild in today's NFL.  

Now look at this: The rookies who took 25% of the snaps will probably get at least as many snaps as veterans.  Collins and Pryor.  One or two new veteran free agent starters, in addition to these guys, Reynolds, etc.

Next year, rookies might only take 15% of the snaps.  Now you're looking at a young, but more experienced roster in the second year of their respective sys---

Oh yeah, Ray Horton?

Anyway, "five years" is rediculous, and so is predicting four wins next season, Chicken Little.

I'm not done yet.  If Ogbah keeps this up, he could be in the Pro Bowl next season.  So should Pryor.  And Collins, and Haden, and Shelton, and Thomas, and Bitonio, and Kirksey, and even Crowell if Hue Jackson just gives him the damn ball more.

There are 22 starters on a team, and I just listed NINE elite players on this one DO YOU UNDERSTAND?  Now they will add to that the first, twelvth, and 33rd overall draft picks, with any of these who isn't a quarterback a probable starter and a good or great player.

How many elite players do the Browns need on their roster before you---god do I have to hit you with a two by four or what five years?  Four wins really?

Ah crap I give up.  For now.

Late add: Speaking of Joe Thomas heir apparants, this Wisconsin left tackle Ryan Ramczyk could be a bargain, and here's why:

He's 6'5", 316, but extremely athletic.  Sounds like Joe, right?  Not exactly, because Ramczyk is stronger, and a better run blocker than Thomas was in college.  He's called an excellent pass protector as well, but I just can't imagine he's quite as good as Big Joe in that area.  Thomas is built and moves almost like a tight end.

Top five pick, right?  Wrong.  Ryan wasn't really even interested in football at first, turning down Penn State to play close to home, then transferring to a college without a football program, then again.

Then he got interested and signed on with Wisconsin.  Due to his transfer, he had to redshirt for one season, but at least practiced and got coached up.

He has now started for one season, but dominated.  He's naturally talented, and plays with a technical discipline which belies his comparative inexperience.

Scouts and GMs have to be concerned about how he actually feels about football, and will hesitate over drafting any one-year starter too high.

CBSsports thinks he could be a top twenty pick.  He will be there at twelve check.  But it's also possible he'll make it to the second round, at which point he's a no-brainer and a steal.

This guy could play guard, but there is no room for him there on this team.  He'd have to switch to right tackle where, due to Coleman and Erving already having made that difficult transition, he could lose the training camp battle.

I half way hope this happens, so I can hear pundits and fans declaring him a bust.

This might even be a net plus, as in a backup role, he could practice at both tackle spots, learn from Joe Thomas, and be the sixth lineman (a nominal tight end).

This is analytics too: I believe that either Shon Coleman or Erving can do a nice job at right tackle.  Then Ramczyk takes over in 2018 and the former starter can be traded.

Ideally, Ramczyk takes over for Joe when he retires, and the survivor inherits right tackle.

Oh yes, they will be thinking that far ahead.  There are a lot of variables and moving parts to it, of course.  I mean as I write this I can hear some of you laughing at the idea that Cam Erving could be a good starting right tackle, and asking me who would trade anything for any Browns right tackle ever, and what if somebody gets hurt, and telling me you just don't draft a guy that high to be a backup yaddayadda.

It doesn't all need to work out exactly like that.  A Joe Thomas successor is a real need for this team, and if you can get one a whole round lower than you got Joe, you should, period.

These guys are planning and thinking long term.  That's a big part of why Paul DePodesta is here.  To maximize LONG TERM value, and build a PERENNIAL contender.

Just sayin.