Rhona LaCanfora says the Browns are likely to franchise Terrelle Pryor, and that he would be "crazy" to sign a long-term deal now.
His market value is estimated at around 9.75 million, and the tag would pay him over 15 million, so that does make some sense.
That's if you have made up your mind that the Browns beancounters are too miserly to exceed this laughably low market value on an offer sheet. This value reflects performance, period. It ignores predictable, almost inevittable growth. Pryor isn't a top five wide receiver YET.
TP's career nearly ended after he was released by the Browns last season. None of the 32 teams wanted touch him.
Now, he's slapped the sneers off everybody's faces, and he's just getting started.
If you ask any of the Browns quarterbacks, they'd laugh at 9.75 million and tell Sashi Brown to pay him more. Every one of them leaned heavily on the big guy (too much: Once Calvin Johnson hung it up, Matthew Stafford realized he had other receivers, and made a big jump forward. He had been fixated on the huge, fast guy too. Pryor is irresistable!)
If the Browns bid up to around 12.5 mil, he might take it. They can graduate up non-guaranteed money while shrinking guaranteed money over the contract term, and build in performance incentives to give him opportunities to actually top the 15 mil in his first contract year.
Injury is always a threat. The franchise tag offers zero security. His career could end in training camp, or a severe injury could sideline him, possibly for two seasons, at the end of which he'd be 29 years old, and a risky signing with zero leverage.
It's not as simple as Rhona makes it sound.
I could be wrong, but I think the Browns could also put a first round tender on Pryor. This would give the Browns the right to match any offer. Failing a deal, if he's eligable, this would be much smarter than the franchise tag.
It's highly unlikely that any team would offer a one-year wonder top five wide receiver money, and the deal he comes back with might be...well...12.5 mil. So, much like Ozzie Newsome does, Sashi Brown can let other teams do his negotiating for him.
Terrelle does not want this. I don't remember how much the first round tender is, but it's not even close to ten million, and if he fails to get a better offer, that's what he gets paid in 2017.
AND any team that does sign him away from the Browns has to give them their first round pick. This disincentive would kill most deals in the womb.
I must be missing something here. Maybe he doesn't qualify for the first round tender or something. But if he does and I'm Sashi, that's what I tell his agent: Be reasonable, or he gets tendered...and maybe injured, c?
Offer him 50 million for four years, with 35 mil of it guaranteed, and the first 15 mil in year one, with 13.5 of it guranteed. Then include one million bonusses for 10 or more touchdowns, 1,250 or more yards, and smaller bonuses for downs played as the wildcat qb, rushing yards, etc.
Have the base contract shrink over the course of the contract, with the guaranteed portion down to 6 mil in season 4.
This eats up a ton of cap space in 2017, but right now the Browns have that money to spend. They could do this, and have plenty for Kirksey, Crowell (I might threaten Crow with the second round tender btw), and everybody else PLUS free agents they can steal from other teams.
Then Pryor gets cheaper as he presumably gets better, and he's not too unhappy about it because he's piling up his bonusses.
In re new free agents, signing Jamie Collins was very important. It will get some players who would otherwise cross the Browns off their list to take a second look. Hiring Gregg Williams will have a similar effect; all his former players rave about him.
Joe Thomas doesn't think the Browns should draft a quarterback first overall? I didn't hear the whole interview, but don't doubt that.
What I have read in the exact quotes was that he would prefer a passrusher, and that it is dangerous to reach for a quarterback, because if he craps out, he doesn't help at all.
Good point. A Myles Garrett (or the other bigger guy who can play under-tackle) is a disappointment, he can still PLAY. He might get five sacks instead of twelve, but at least he's part of a rotation and can make some messes here and there. The passrusher is safer.
It's significant that it was Joe Thomas saying this. He practices against Ogbah, and some of the other guys. I know he'd deny it if you asked him, but I now know that he's not impressed by Ogbah.
Joe is the expert here. I have to listen. I officially hereby admit waitaminnit he said "That player has to have an immediate impact" whew!
No he does not, Joe. I know your career clock is ticking louder and louder now, but get real, ok? Your team is not going to make the playoffs in 2017, ok? Don't go getting desperate like that. I know you just want to win more games for now, but you get your days off and haven't been injured and should be fine for long enough to see the playoffs.
Would DeShaun Watson (or Mitch Trubisky for all I know) be a reach, Joe? I know you're an expert on edge-rushers, and if you say this team needs better ones, so be it.
But I respectfully submit to you that Hue Jackson is the quarterback expert.
But what Big Joe said also tells me he likes the quarterback(s) he currently protects. Did anybody else infer that? I thought not. Expect that shortly after I press "publish" gdammit.
I'm not saying Joe is wrong, except about the immediate impact stuff. But I know at least some of what he said, in his own words, and I didn't hear any specific references to any draftable quarterbacks. "Reach" was one word in one sentence. I bet if Joe and I were sharing over beers, he'd admit that Hue Jackson knows more about quarterbacks than he does, and would refuse to pick on Trubisky or Watson.
I think one small part of this is Joe daydreaming about testing himself against (and helping develop) Myles Garrett.
Fun to think about, isn't it? Joe shutting the kid down, then telling him why? I'm certain that Joe Thomas wants to play Doctor Frankenstein, and make all the other left tackles look bad.
Of COURSE the Browns haven't ruled out trading down! My suspicion that Hue might want Watson or Trubisky is mostly a guess, but if I guessed right, drafting that guy first overall could be a waste of potential if they can get him and more good stuff too.
A lot will happen between now and draft day, and some of the "needs" analysis is extremely shallow and myopic. Buffalo could extend Tyrod Taylor after all. Somebody else could trade for Garopollo. Chicago could finally admit that they might already have their quarterback (which they DO).
Somebody might be dumb enough to think Jay Cutler is just misunderstood, and somebody probably will pay up for Tony Romo.
Myles Garrett is generally percieved as a generational talent, and Sashi Brown can be certain that a given trade partner wants him, and not a quarterback. A few scouts rank Jonathan Allen even higher than Garrett.
In the last draft, everybody agreed that no team could possibly like Goff and Wentz equally. This was rediculous. It IS possible for two quarterbacks to be equal. It's irrational to deny this.
Doctor Frankenstein Jackson might like BOTH Trubisky and Watson (and/or conceivably Kizer). No doubt he has a favorite, but figures he can make the second guy just as good.
IF IF IF a quarterback is the target, by the time the draft rolls around, the Browns could trade down and still get Hue's quarterback.
There are too many variables here for further speculation, but I'll be blogging on the eve of the draft.
I hear you, waittilnextyear and Black Cloud, about Julio Jones and stuff. This and the MARC SANCHEZ trades were actually good, for the value previous, long gone GMs got for them. They just missed on nearly every pick they got off those trades. That's a totally separate issue, isn't it? And uhh...Matt Ryan? I mean, doesn't he have something to do with this?
Please think with your brain: If you can trade down and still get the guy you want anyway, it's a no-brainer even if you MISS on all the other picks you got! And even if you miss on your top target, it has zero to do with the trade-down strategy.
New topic:
I've re-thunk safety in the Gregg Williams defense. Just as Williams needs a smart veteran middle linebacker to make defensive calls, he also needs a hybrid ss/lb player to be a nominal linebacker in nickles and dimes.
This player is a run-and-hit linebacker who can take down big running backs or tight ends, as well as cover. Gregg has used safeties in this role, even though they were deemed too small.
So Jabrill Peppers could be a good pick at 12. He's been knocked for not getting a lot of interceptions, but he's a perfect fit for Gregg's defense. The guy he needs is a swiss army knife, and Peppers is that.
It's more important than another passrusher. Without this enforcer, Williams defenses get burned too often. I still think one of two young safeties on the current roster can fill this role, or conceivably Shobert, but they need to make sure.
Anyway, YOU STAND CORRECTED
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