Wait a minute. We all forgot somebody. We assumed. We need to pump the brakes here...
What about Mr. "You'll have to trust me on this one" Cody Kessler?
I got sucked right into the franchise quarterback frenzy myself. How embarrassing. Baah! Baaah!
"We don't know yet if that guy is on the roster." How could I have ignored that like everybody else? I know that most of you heard "That guy is not on the roster", but that's not what they said, and that was not hyperbole. These guys don't do hyperbole.
You heard Sashi say "We will always assume he's not here", and "We will always look to upgrade that position" as "He's not here", and "We need to upgrade that position", but again, that's not what he said.
You need to understand this about all of these guys: They mean what they say.
Cody Kessler was statistically the best rookie quarterback in the NFL in 2016. Better than Wentz, Goff, and Prescott. (Prescott might have topped his qbr; not sure. Kessler had the highest completion percentage).
Hue Jackson had no intention of playing Kessler this season. He was to spend his time in the shop getting overhauled and prepped for a 2017 debut.
Injuries thrust him into the fray too soon. He immediately lost Corey Coleman. Terrelle Pryor was still learning to play wide receiver. Down goes Bitonio and Erving then Greco, and more important than the loss of talent was the disruption of the unit.
There were protection breakdowns, because these individuals hadn't played together, and pass protection suffered as a result. Like RG3 and McCown, he got the snot knocked out of him.
The bend and then break defense rendered Kessler's offense one dimensional, and he spent the majority of his time in must-pass, come from behind mode. He got the kitchen sink constantly.
But as a rookie, on this team, he earned a 95-plus quarterback rating.
How good will he be in his second season, with a full off season to process that experience he gained? With (I hope) a more refined, well-rounded Pryor, a Coleman who has all his NFL routes down pat, a DeValve who gets more snaps, and a healthy offensive line (with a better right tackle and center)?
What's wrong with Kessler? Well, he didn't have a big arm, and wasn't good at deep passes. Jim Miller can tell you, quarterbacks do get stronger with NFL practice and training. He cites Tom Brady, who early in his carreer had a mediocre arm. Aaron Rodgers is another example.
Joe Montana and Brian Sipe never did develop strong arms, but somehow they scraped by anyway.
Hue Jackson liked Kessler for several reasons (aside from his interviews, which mattered the most). He had a lot of starting experience, and worked in four different offensive systems. He succeeded in each. He learns and adapts quickly.
He was the most accurate quarterback in his draft class. First and foremost, Hue Jackson wants a quarterback who throws receivers open and hits them in-stride. This, and the ability to process information quickly, will always be Hue's foundational traits.
Kessler is about the same size as Rodgers and Garopollo: "Too small". Well, two concussions were alarming.
He started holding the ball, like all the rest of the Browns quarterbacks. And like them, he caused too many "coverage" sacks. That is fixable, especially for Kessler. Quarterbacks often hold the ball because they don't trust their receivers enough to throw at their backs.
As I mentioned before, they all came to depend on Pryor too much, waiting for him to break off and come back to the rescue.
They also get stubborn, and think they can pull something out if they survive long enough, so they don't throw it away in time. Big Ben or Rodgers can get away with that. I don't think anybody else can. All fixable.
Cody Kessler just might be "the guy". I can't wait to see Kessler 2.0 behind a healthy offensive line, and with Pryor 3.0, and DeValve and Coleman 2.0. And Josh Gordon? Wow! For the first time ever, entering a second consecutive season in the same offensive system.
The defense will be better, by default. It can't be as bad, let alone worse. A more productive offense would help a ton.
Kessler probably won't make a huge leap in year two. He came out of college well-seasoned and fairly polished. He may or may not evolve into a real franchise quarterback over time, and the two concussions bode ill.
So the Browns will absolutely draft another quarterback in 2017. Maybe even first overall. But expect Cody Kessler to be the starter on game one, and expect him to be very efficient and productive.
The future will take care of itself. If his cieling is to be another Andy Dalton, that will work. If the new guy takes over in 2018, well...what would a bunch of teams trade for Andy Dalton on a rookie contract? Who has a better backup?
If the new guy falls on his face, Kessler looks even better.
Kessler is at least an average NFL starter in year two. You'll have to trust me on this.
Just a note here: One writer suggested a hypothetical trade with the Browns moving from 12th to 2nd overall, and coughing up three second rounders. Believe it or not, it was a Cleveland writer, not a San Fransisco writer.
You see, no quarterback is "worth" the first overall pick. Therefore, we must draft Garrett first, then gut our draft to draft a quarterback one slot lower, instead.
I guarantee you, niether DePodesta or Brown are totalling up value chart points and trying to stay in the black. These writers totally misunderstand analytics. All picks in the 4th round and higher have a decent chance of becoming good players, and second rounders often become stars.
If the Browns are willing to draft a quarterback second overall, and can't trade DOWN to it, they will draft him first overall. Numbers do not trump common sense, and ALL franchise quarterbacks are worth first overall picks.
Nevermind the draft gurus rankings. Hue Jackson and company have their own chart. If they think Trubisky or Watson can become that guy, they won't screw up the rest of the draft. They will draft him first overall.
And start Cody Kessler.
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