I expect to read dumb articles like this all offseason. I included this link because the writer is more ignorant than dumb.
He is correct that the best way to build a team is from the trenches out, but wrong about the states of the extant offensive and defensive lines.
In this much smarter article by (no surprise) Peter Smith, he pretty much restates what I've posted too often: Aside from the need to find Joe Thomas's eventual successor, and answer a question at center, the Browns offensive line is just fine.
The writer of the dumb article banned two starters and a promising young center to the cornfield as soon as they were placed on IR, and implicitly pronounces Shon Coleman DOA.
Oh, the Browns led the NFL in sacks allowed? Well, all four Browns quarterbacks were in the top seven for holding the damn ball too damn long, and at least two thirds of those sacks were the damn quarterback's fault!
You've got to do a little homework, and think just a little before you reflexively blame a MASH unit offensive line for everything, and dismiss four of that unit's players.
In my last post, I mentioned a left tackle who could come cheap in this draft, and since then have updated myself on the two young centers already on the roster:
Reiter and Fabiano. Their scouting reports are eerily similar, which is a strong indicator that Berry and Jackson are pursuing a type.
That type is very athletic, and also smart. Reiter and Fabiano were both seen to lack "ballast" and lower body strength, which is the main reason they were undrafted.
This was extremely smart of them, since the hips and legs use the largest muscles on the human body, and are the simplest and easiest to build up and strengthen. This additional mass and strength often enhances speed and quickness to boot.
Both had mechanical flaws, according to the reports I read, in that they sometimes played too tall and failed to gain leverage. This is common, and correctable.
Sending these two to Hans and Franz is a no-brainer regardless of blocking system, but as-is Reiter and Fabiano are well-suited to an inside zone scheme, which accounted for Isaiah Crowell's outstanding game vs the Steelers.
Pundits persist in talking about Hue Jackson's "power blocking" scheme, but both of his top offensive assistants favor inside and outside zones, and why do they have Andrew Berry targeting zone centers, huh?
In fact, we all saw how stubborn Hue was about keeping Erving at center. Well, Erving is also quite athletic, and his extra length is an advantage in the inside zone.
I have to check myself as I do these analyses, because I feel strongly that Isaiah Crowell is a prototype one-cut running back, and Duke and Atkinson are helped by this scheme as well. I have to make sure that what I want to see isn't corrupting my objectivity.
To make sure that's not happening to me, I jump to the other side of the fence.
Hue should run a power/man scheme! That's why he makes sure he's got a fullback, and three tight ends, including Randall Telfer (a really good in-line blocker). You just load up and bully people, including G-power with pulling guards.
Rules changes really hurt the zone scheme, because it's easy for referees to treat a "hand-off" block (where one lineman takes over a defender from another so that the first blocker can go linebacker-hunting) as illegal, and throw a flag (and these are, of course, the Cleveland Browns, so...)
The defender, knowing what's going on, can now get away with HOLDING the first blocker to protect his linebackers, thus gobbling up two blockers.
And the Browns offensive linemen...
Nope. Only zone makes sense, and if Hue doesn't get it, he is wrong, and I am right. There, I said it. But I also think I'm right about their plans, because a predominantly zone run scheme makes too much sense:
1: Crowell prospered under Kyle Shanahan, and possibly every single one of his big plays came through zone blocking. He has been much less consistant and effective on power sweeps, conventional traps, and man in general.
2: Mitchell Schwartze and Alex Mack, while Mack is pretty good in zone himself, are better man than zone blockers. They are gone.
3: Joe Thomas excels in zone. Joe can push guys around ok, but thrives running around in space; is probably THE best zone-blocking left tackle in the NFL.
4: Bitonio is good in either scheme, Erving (regardless of position) better in zone. Greco, to my surprise, has proven to do better in zone. Coleman is probably better in zone than in man. Both the youngest centers are damn near zone prototypes. They will get stronger, and play lower, but will never be bulldozers. Alvin Bailey was retained. Seattle runs zone.
5: Zone is simple. The techniques seem complicated, but it's basicly the same thing, every time, regardless of opposing personnel or alignment.
6: Like Fabiano and Reiter, guys who don't knock defenders on their butts are drafted lower or go undrafted. This was a key to Mike Shanahan's Denver Superbowls. His offensive line was comparatively cheap, in terms of both money and draft picks. He was able to draft and sign superior skill and defensive players. Running a zone would exoloit the same flaw in the NFL talent market. That's a DePodesta thing. Even if Hue Jackson himself is a "power" guy, I think he's open minded enough to listen to his Chief Strategy officer and both his top offensive assistants.
7: Zone doesn't work everywhere. It's useless on third and inches, or close to the goal line. This could help explain why Hue Jackson is so reluctant to run at the goal line. It would also explain why he carries three tight ends and a fullback. You can be a predominantly zone-blocking scheme, but in some situations, you have to load up and push people back the old fashioned way.
If I am correct, and Hue Jackson is not a Martonian blockhead, how will this effect offensive line personnel moves?
Center is tricky. The linemen all still need to pass protect, and zone types are often vulnerably to bull rushes. They don't have to be maulers, but they do have to be able to anchor and hold their ground. Further, what about those goal line and third and short situations? They have to be able to put on their big boy pants and generate at least a little movement.
This is the zone achilles heel. With the right running back(s), it's damn near impossible to stop on the ground, but it often can't bully a defense when feet and inches matter, and it can often be driven back inside, into the quarterback's face on passing downs.
Reiter or Fabiano as they are will not do, but their increased strength and improved technique (Reiter is actually pretty good mechanicly already) are utterly predictable.
Trust me: DePodesta and the coaches will have the latest reports from Hans and Franz at key points in the offseason. If a player's squats, calf-raises, bench presses, etc meet certain thresholds, the Browns staff will adjust their personnel priorities.
This isn't "moneyball". It's not even complicated.
I need to elaborate--sorry: if Reiteriano needs his ankles to be five degrees more flexible, is 20% under optimum strength (the average strength of good offensive players at the same position), needs to lose 2% body fat and yet sustain or gain weight, then that is that.
If he meets these goals, a real analyst, knowing what the coaches tell him about the player's tapes, can predict
how he will perform. It's TRUE! No "well, we have to see" this or that, ok? They will KNOW, and adjust their draft and free agent priorities accordingly.
This is part of what is new with this front office. I know things. They will be efficient, and won't waste money or picks out of pessimism, paranoia, or any other emotion.
The Browns already know, as I do, that both Fabiano and Reiter should achieve their achievable strength and conditioning goals during this offseason, and that they will have Erving and Greco back, as well. Barring unexpected setbacks, if they intend to stick with zone blocking, they will have their center.
And not just a "guy", but an exceptionally athletic center who is way above average blocking in space, and at least average in the areas he formerly sucked at.
That would render Joe Thomas II the sole offensive line priority.
As for the defensive line, there's some kneejerking going on here as well, and it's a lot harder to figure out, given all the different fronts, prevalence of nickles and dimes, etc.
Kneejerk non-analysts point to statistical suckage vs the run, and maybe the fewest sacks in the NFL, to once again proclaim urgent needs at DE and inside linebacker.
In reality, for much of the season, the safeties were late, and took poor angles, in run support. The front seven guys were in position more often than not, but blew the tackles. That might be poor coaching, but has zero to do with talent.
Opposing quarterbacks usually hit their first reads, and got the ball out at light speed. Small wonder, with Haden hurt, Calhoun and Reynolds arriving late (great job Andrew), and the other corners and safeties decimated by injury.
Ray Horton had to use more zones than he likes to, and back off from press coverage. He was trying to put a lid over the top, but it left receivers open short (and here we go more blown tackles you know the rest).
The reality is that Carl Nassib doesn't currently have enough sand in his pants to excel in his assigned role YET, but he, too, will be reporting to the Hans and Franz House of Horrors.
Ogbah, moved back to defensive end, came on strong in the second half of his ROOKIE season. This guy isn't like Nassib, and can't really get much bigger or stronger without it slowing him down.
Offensive linemen have a reach advantage on him, and he is up against LEFT tackles. Despite being outreached and outweighed, he is almost freakishly strong and maximizes his leverage. And did I mention he was a ROOKIE? OK? DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Shelton speaks for himself, but give Jamie Meder his props too. Verily, Meder is not a star, but he's a solid rotational guy who can stop the run.
Those who list defensive line as an "urgent", "desperate" need need a brain transplant, as do those who hallucinate the same need at inside linebacker. These acutely impaired individuals see replacing Christian Kirksey and Jamie Collins as an urgent, desperate need.
Don't get semantical on me here. Collins played inside more than he played outside, just like in New England. He can play any of the slots, but he counts as one of the guys these nimrods want replaced.
Which brings me to Ray Horton. In my opinion, Ray has not done a good job here. I respect Ray, but what happened here happened, DESPITE a lot of talent on defense.
Hue Jackson, reportedly against resistance from the front office, brought Ray back here. Horton's track record was pedestrian. I personally liked his innovative, adaptable approach, and thought he could make the most of this talent, but now think I was wrong.
I guarantee you that Sashi and Paul and maybe Jimmy and Dee Haslam are at this moment telling Hue he should have listened to them in the first place, and that he needs to see it and sign off on Ray's termination.
Real analysts listen carefully, and in Hue's most recent press conference, I heard Hue say that changes in the coaching staff were possible, and that they'd have to study on it. Unlike most other listeners, I took this literally.
I saw his blinks, where his eyes rolled, when he looked down, etc also, and I color Ray Horton a gmf.
The current personnel suit either a 4-3 or 3-4 base. There are issues with both:
Hassan, once Hans and Franz are done with him, fits either scheme. Danny Shelton fits any scheme too, but maxes out in the 3-4, since he can command and sometimes defeat double teams. Ogbah as a defensive end is almost ideal on the weak side of a 4-3, but too short and small in a conventional 3-4, and in a non-Ray Horton 3-4, might indeed be more effective at weak outside linebacker, though not as well as at 4-3 defensive end.
Jamie Collins is more of a pure linebacker who suits either scheme, at any linebacker position, but him with his hand in the ground makes little sense. But Collins could be an outstanding MIDDLE linebacker in a 4-3.
Christian Kirksey is blossoming into an outstanding inside linebacker. He is ideal for a 3-4, but could also be really good weak outside in a 4-3.
Jamie Meder and Xavier Cooper would both be best served as defensive tackles in a 4-3. Tyrone Holmes or Cam Johnson could be 4-3 strong outside linebackers, but fit a 3-4 a lot better.
Demario Davis, who does NOT suck, fits either scheme, but is trumped by Collins in the middle, Kirksey on the weak side, and Holmes or Johnson on the strong side of a 4-3.
What can we make of this? Not much!
What will Paul DePodesta make of this? A LOT!
He will push for Horton's removal asap so that the organization can look for his replacement asap. Paul doesn't care which base system ends up being used, but wants to know which system the new defensive coordinator favors asap.
This will have everything to do with free agency and the draft. The defensive players the Browns have now are not system (or often even position)-specific. Paul needs to know, 3-4 or 4-3, (and for that matter press man, off man, zone coverage etc) before he can fine-tune his player searches.
Are you still with me here?
This will get very deep: A one-gap 4-3 would favor Cooper over Meder, and make an inside penetrator a priority. A two-gap would...
Nevermind, I hope you get the idea.
Ultimately, a new defensive coordinator will influence the draft and free agency. The first round of free agency will, in turn, influence the draft.
Now, in the dumb article I cited, the writer also sort of called all trade-downs stupid. He even lumped second round picks in with seventh round picks, and implied that the proceeds of any such trade oknevermind I already said it was dumb.
Sashi and company will consider things like this:
How much better than Ogbah is Garrett? Is Kizer, Watson, or Trubisky an eventual franchise guy, and if so, can we move down and still get him? Can a trade-down guarantee a big stud cornerback or an eventual Joe Thomas too? Will this give us ammo to trade for young veteran players under contract, or for 2018 draft picks one round higher?
I can already hear my pals: "Shut up just take Garrett!"
All I can say to you guys is the brain crust needs to build a TEAM here, and take every opportunity to get the best overall long-term value for every dollar and every draft pick it can.
The numbers have real meaning. If you have an Ogbah and a Nassib, a Garrett is an upgrade, but it means you need to bench one of those two on every down he plays. Is this worth more than a franchise quarterback AND Joe Thomas II or an elite cornerback?
For that matter, both Nassib and Ogbah are being sold short. I promise you, both these guys will wreak havoc in 2017. Garrett might well out-do them as a rookie yes--he's all that.
But you can't screw around at quarterback. Anybody who says "wait til next year, draft one then" is a stone idiot. Franchise quarterbacks don't grow on trees, and if you draft 10th or 15th, odds are you're screwed again.
The Browns are rebuilding, and aiming for a dynasty. If they trade down from first overall, wait three years before you have your tantrum.
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