Monday, January 23, 2017

Chris Carter, Cognitive Disonance, Superstition, and the Browns

Chris Carter knows his football and isn't an idiot, but he's like many players and most fans: Irrational.  As this article describes,  Chris urges Deshaun Watson not to go to Cleveland.

Chris referred to an irrefutably dismal history of failure, but here's where he gets hysterical:

He mentions Alex Mack, who's grading roads for the Falcons now.  Well, Mack was average per PFF in 2016, was thirty years old, and is a mercenary.  Like many players, Chris thinks everybody should get paid as much as they want.  I can guess how he votes.

He should have brought up Mitchell Scwartze.  That one would have hit home...except as you will see, right tackle will be just fine in 2017.

He cites Taylor Gabriel.  He's got a point there, too.  The designated smurf retained here was Andrew Hawkins instead.  The Browns said they felt he could help the younger receivers more.  But Chris is right: Gabriel was clearly the better player.

...but what "wide receiver problems"?  Four rookies and Pryor, you mean?  A broken hand?  Shaky quarterbacks--those problems?  The ones that are about to solve themselves?  

And what the hell does Dion Lewis have to do with any member of this front office or coaching staff?  Ask Carter what he thinks of Hue Jackson.  I guarantee you he likes him.

That's called cognitive disonance.  He's telling Watson not to come to Cleveland to be coached by Hue Jackson, throw to Coleman, Barnidge, and Pryor, hand off to Crowell and Johnson, with a young defense coached by Gregg Williams, Joe Thomas at his back with Bitonio next to him, because...ummm...

I gave him Gabriel and Schwartze.  Why can't he give me Pryor, Collins, Ogbah, and those defensive backs they grabbed off the streets?

Chis, hello? Chris hit the ground running as an NFL rookie receiver.  Well, he played for Ohio State and was huge at that time.  But he knows damn well that's unusual; most receivers take time to develop.  Nor was the rookie Chris Carter anything like the third year player who played opposite Randy Moss.

14 rookies, Chris.  Rebuild.  Is any of this sinking in?  Do you understand that you are logicly challenged?  Unfair to a bunch of coaches you'd no doubt admit don't suck, and a bunch of rookies you're comdemning without a fair trial.

Deshaun, you graduated early, so I guess you won't listen to that crap.  You're probably a critical thinker.  

Go ahead kick the tires.  Just read my blog.  You'll see: There is lots of talent here, and nearly all of it will be significantly better next season than it was last season.  You would have not just Hue Jackson, but also Josh McCown in some capacity helping you out.

When Chris gives you advice, just sort of pretend you agree with him and thank him.  Tell him what an impressive player he was (he'll like that).

Then give Hue or Josh a call.

By the way, Pat Kirwan points out that 70% of today's NFL passes are thrown from the shotgun.  Among the most shotgun-oriented quarterbacks were the four who played last sunday.  So how much does a Deshaun Watson have to learn huh?

Solomon Wilcotts is VERY impressed by Watson, and was all set to duke it out with Kirwan, except Kirwan didn't argue with him.

Remember: Wilcotts was a safety.  

They both like Trubisky too, but are scared to death by his lack of experience.  Watson has plenty of tape, vs the very best defenses and in the very biggest games.

Bill Polian is unimpressed, and is probably the guy cited by a fellow writer and NFL listener.  Bill still thinks he's a second round value.

I can't toe the line with this NFL legend.  The guy built TWO dynasties.  This aint just some ex-player.

I just think he is wrong.  I want to look up what he said about Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott.  I bet he called the former a backup and the latter a risky project with upside.  I also wonder if he likes any quarterbacks under 6'3" or 220 lbs.  His guys were Jim Kelly and Peyton Manning.  They were both pretty easy picks to make.

Polian also said "It doesn't matter".  As Brady Quinn explains, there is a rookie salary scale now.  Once that happened, all bets were off on quarterbacks, because most of the risk was taken out.

Sam Bradford was the last top quarterback drafted on the old deal.  He squeezed every last dime out of it, and gobbled up something like 15% of the Rams salary cap, and we know the rest.  Bradford's BASELINE was first overall money, but because he was a quarterback, he exrorted a massive premium on top of that as well.

Now, quarterbacks are the same as everybody else AND the agents can't hold out and extort more than just details.  So teams take more risks.

For the Browns, if they draft a Trubisky or a Watson first overall, here is what could happen:

1: By year 3, he is a top 7-10 starter or better.  This justifies the pick.

2: By year 3, he's a top 10-15 guy.  That's ok.  We get to lowball him on his second contract and hope he blossoms.  This is a Ryan Tannehill situation.  A lot of fans want to lynch us for not having taken Garrett instead, but in reality we are in better shape than we were at quarterback, and can win.

3: We got a backup.  Bad pick.

BUT in none of these situations do the Browns mortgage their future on this one ONE draft pick.  A team can whiff on a quarterback, and not be condemned to mediocrity for the duration of his massively inflated contract.

So, as Bill Polian will tell you, quarterbacks that grade out as low first or second round picks are drafted in the top ten every year, and each draft is like a quarterback auction.

Bill and I would get along fine, because he would also tell you that sometimes the grades don't matter.  Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were obsessive.  They studied films obsessively, and force coaches to stand back in practice, because they jump all over their receivers when they screw up.

Bill is one of the guys who taught ME that THE most important thing any quarterback can have is dedication.  And Bill (I like him: Sounds so nice and smart with his vocabulary and all, but he's brutally honest and unafraid of offending people)...

Bill will tell you, this first guy in last guy out film study blahblah stuff has become standard talking points for every quarterback on every team, and it's sickening and mostly bullshit.

I don't know about Mitch Trubisky, but I do know, reliably, that Deshaun Watson really is dedicated.  From his coaches, teammates, and documented history.  He is smart, disciplined, and a workaholic.

He's a leader, but not like Brady.  Tom Brady lets his receivers have it when they screw up.  Watson is more like Peyton Manning, but gets his messages across all the same.

Like both of them, he knows what all eleven guys are supposed to be doing on the offense.  He knows his whole offense, in depth, like an offensive coordinator.

Bill Polian did tip his hand to me/make me feel better about his second round grade on Watson.  Bill factors in "readiness" more than I do.  He feels that any quarterback taken high in the first round should be able to start during his rookie season.

He's not talking about potential or talent.  He's just being kind of Martonian, and sticking with the "immediate contribution" rule.  I'm sure that if I could interview Bill, he'd concede dedication, intelligence, leadership, talent, and nerves.  We might quibble over how much his size matters, but I'd nail him down:

Watson looks like an injury waiting to happen.  He runs around like a scatback, but never slides.  He does have a lot of starts, but not thirty (Parcells rule: A college quarterback needs 30 starts to succeed as a rookie).

Polian would stipulate talent, leadership, and intelligence.  He would say, at the end of it, that he thinks he's vulnerable to injury (hence unreliable), not ready to start in the NFL at this point, and...well that's why he puts a second round grade on him.

Marty Schottenheimer was also real smart.  Bill is like that.  

When Bill Polian drafted Jim Kelly, and then Peyton Manning, he put his career on the line.  To this day, he measures every quarterback against them.

All things considered, were the Browns to draft Deshaun Watson first overall, Bill might throw his hands up.  But I don't think he'd call it a mistake.

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