Remember this, and if you don't remember, consider it with your brain:
Shortly after this time last season, the Philadelphia Eagles re-signed fine crystal quarterback Sam Bradford to yet another massively inflated contract. Regardless of what came since, this was idiotic. Bradford has elite talent, but has spent at least one third of his career on IR, and has accomplished nothing of consequence.
But then, a lot of people, including me, thought they were idiots for trading the much younger and cheaper Nick Foles for Bradford in the last year of his massively inflated contract.
Nick Foles fell on his face. Bradford played well, and only missed a few games. But then they had to re-sign him, and his demands were as rediculous as we all knew they would be.
Roseman got him down, just a little, but re-signed him, and crossed his fingers. Then he met Carson Wentz at the Senior Bowl. It was love at first sight.
He traded some of his highest picks in 2016 and 2017 to move up to draft this quarterback. He fully intended for this second overall pick to sit on the bench for at least most of his rookie season.
I have to admit that this part of it was smart. "Immediate impact" my ass, he's a quarterback!
Anyway, he lucked out. Bradford predictably got injured, Wentz unpredictably stepped in and kicked ass, Bridgewater got maimed, and Minnesota coughed up a first round pick and then some for Bradford and his rediculous salary.
Roseman is being called a genius now, but lucked out more than anything else. Nor is this the end of the story.
Once defenses drew a bead on Wentz, he hit a wall. I'm not going to bash him. His supporting cast wasn't great, and his defense underperformed. He was, after all, a rookie. He has a lot of upside left.
But look what happened: The Eagles didn't get anywhere. The first rounder they got for Bradford hardly dents the picks they gave up for Wentz. The Eagles need more talent AROUND Wentz, and need to hit free agency hard to get there.
And yes, there are questions about the quarterback the lowly insane moneyball beancounting Browns traded down from.
Wentz has a very high floor. At worst, he will be above average. But is he a franchise guy, who can take the team on his shoulders when neccessary? Because if he's not, it was the Eagles, and not the Browns, who screwed up.
Stop it! Cody Kessler outperformed Carson Wentz. Stick a fork in yourself-you're done. And he might just KEEP outperforming him, too!
Don't get me wrong. I think Paul DePodesta is wrong: Wentz already IS a top 20 quarterback, and might become a top 10 quarterback, or higher. But get me right: Cody Kessler is right there with him.
Dak Prescott is the best rookie so far, but wow look at the talent he's surrounded with! It MATTERS, don't you know! Kessler is the one who was stuck in the worst situation. Can you deny that?
One thing that the Browns will do that the Eagles tried to do is to keep any rookie quarterback in the nursery, to be spritzed and fertilized, while the veterans manage games...regardless of how high they draft him. Quarterbacks have to make immediate impacts only if you are on the verge of being fired.
Jeff Fisher tried to do this with Goff, as well. Finally he was forced to play him. The results were borderline disasterous.
That's not because Goff sucks. It's because he had a weak supporting cast, and wasn't ready YET. But the Rams, too, drafted Goff first overall with the intention of sitting him down in year one.
Mary Kay Cabbot feels the Browns should draft Trubisky first AND trade number twelve for Jimmy Garopollo (if they can, and if they can work out a contract in advance).
She says that ideally, both of them work out, and in a year or two, the other can be turned back into a first round pick. If only one of the two becomes the franchise guy, then at least the decades long quarterback issue has been resolved, and the Browns have great depth at the position.
I respect her logic, but can't agree, because I feel that she, like everyone else except Hue Jackson, is selling Kessler short.
I have no idea what Hue Jackson will do, but two new options revealed themselves at the Senior Bowl (see previous post).
The one Hue himself coached was Davis Webb, who has the ideal stature and the stronger arm.
In the past, I've cited statistics on the much steeper odds against quarterbacks drafted below the first round, but you can throw these out the window for those who make strong impressions during Senior Bowl week; and especially for those their teammates name MVPs.
The guy last year was Dak Prescott. A few years ago, it was Russell Wilson.
Hue now knows Davis Webb well. Webb did quite well.
To make absolutely sure, the Browns could draft him in the third, but the fourth could work.
Now we can make Big Joe happy and take the passrusher first. Mayock says it's Garrett. Others question Garrett's "motor", and say he takes plays off. I don't know, but for now I go with the guy I trust: Mayock.
However, Gregg Williams might prefer Jonathan Allen, who is a little shorter and much bigger, since he could play under-tackle in his 4-3, as well as 3-4 DE.
Garrett is the better player, but not an efficient scheme fit. Ogbah shows promise. Nassib should be bigger, stronger, and better in season two. Xavier Cooper for now is the best fit at weakside tackle, and that is a bigger question mark.
CBSsports has actually moved Allen over to defensive tackle on it's big board, where he's on top.
If Webb is a target, and Allen is a target, then a trade-down is suddenly very much in play.
At twelve, it looks like another defensive player, or yet another trade-down and a big man cornerback.
This draft is loaded with tight ends. The Browns have Seth DeValve for the H-back version. Gary Barnidge is aging, and isn't a great blocker either. Hue needs a real tight end who can both block and catch to run his full offense.
Jeremy Sprinkle should be available in the fourth round, but the freak here is OJ Howard, who has a good chance of going in the first. Howard is comparable to Ed Reed. Sprinkle is like Barnidge, if Barnidge were to bother to block well.
Trade down(s) could work well in this draft. Six of the top seven cornerbacks are 6' tall, and the other is 5'11". Malik Hooker or Jabrill Peppers could slide. As many as three quarterbacks and Garrett could go in the top five or six.
Don't tell Grossi, ok?
Anyway, now you know what to think, and how to think it. You're welcome.
Monday, January 30, 2017
Saturday, January 28, 2017
Peterson, Webb, Hue Jackson, and the Browns
In this Factory of Sadness article, Bucky Brooks' mock draft is graded a D+. I agree.
Think about this: The Browns draft Myles Garrett first overall, and the 49ers pick Mitch Trubisky with the very next pick. These mock drafters are all disclaiming that no quarterback is worthy of top ten consideration, and yet coloring all three gone by pick six.
Like Bucky Brooks, most of them have decided that the Cleveland Browns are the only quarterback-hungry team that will leave the first round without a quarterback.
If the 49ers were drafting first, and the Browns second, would the 49ers draft Garrett instead, do you think?
All this over one ladder rung? It would be dumb to draft the quarterback first overall, but not second overall?
Well, if the Browns don't want to do that, maybe Hue has discovered somebody in Mobile at the Senior Bowl that he can draft later.
First, Haasan Reynolds is a defensive end from Toledo. He annihilated all the offensive tackles all week, and then in the game. He played for Toledo, where he racked up ungodly sack stats. He was expected to get knocked down a peg by the stiffer competition here, but he didn't miss a beat.
He's 6'5", 250 lbs., but is a fit at DE in a 4-3.
But the quarterbacks were Nathan Peterman and Davis Webb. Both kicked butt in the game, and Peterman had in practice all week.
Webb was the South guy that Hue coached. Both were impressive in the game.
Peterman appears more pro-ready, although both are considered project types due to the systems they played in. They weren't required to make line calls, check off, etc; the mental stuff that some guys never do master.
Going to the Senior Bowl was very smart for both of them, as they had several days to prove their ability to process information to NFL coaches, and to learn the NFL basics from them.
Peterman was compared to Kirk Cousins. I didn't hear any comparisons on Webb, but he's got NFL size and a bigger arm (despite his horizontal passing system, nobody questions his arm). Peterman is closer to 6'2", but sturdy. Both can move around, but niether is a real dual threat.
Past Senior Bowl quarterbacks who were drafted lower down include Derrick Carr, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garopollo, and Dak Prescott. Prior to the Senior Bowl, Peterman was projected to go in the fourth round, and Webb (one rank lower) in the fourth or fifth.
Each has now probably moved themselves up a round with their week-long performances.
What are (smart) people saying about them? Well, some think Peterman might have small hands, and don't think he can drive it deep as well as he should. They knock Webb's inconsistent accuracy (but say he IS accurate; remember I told you: "Innacurate while being hit, throwing it away, getting poked in the eye" etc. I no longer pay much attention to this particular criticism).
Webb is a coach's son, and is reputed to have a high football IQ. Both have good experience. Peterman is more a West Coast guy, while Webb might be good in any system. Peterman was the more impressive during the practice week.
Webb was the South team's MVP.
I have to mention safety Lorenzo Jerome here: This guy got two interceptions at the NFLPA College Bowl, then came to Mobile and got two more. Wow.
He is only 5'10", 203 and played for a tiny college. He WAS projected to go in the fifth or sixth round. He isn't even listed on most draft sites (nice job Phil Savage!).
And linebacker Haasan Reddick probably got into the first round. That guy is just a BEAST. He did pile up a ton of sacks, but he's a real linebacker who can mirror, cover, shed, etc as well.
Anyway I got good vibes off the Peterson/Webb analyses, notably by Jim Miller. These are guys with great upsides who are just not ready for primetime yet. They proved at the Senior Bowl that they have the mental hardware to learn and execute pro concepts.
Since, as I've already explained, Cody Kessler is probably going to beat RG3 and start next season, and whichever quarterback the Browns draft is not meant to start in 2017, a guy like this might do just fine.
Think about this: The Browns draft Myles Garrett first overall, and the 49ers pick Mitch Trubisky with the very next pick. These mock drafters are all disclaiming that no quarterback is worthy of top ten consideration, and yet coloring all three gone by pick six.
Like Bucky Brooks, most of them have decided that the Cleveland Browns are the only quarterback-hungry team that will leave the first round without a quarterback.
If the 49ers were drafting first, and the Browns second, would the 49ers draft Garrett instead, do you think?
All this over one ladder rung? It would be dumb to draft the quarterback first overall, but not second overall?
Well, if the Browns don't want to do that, maybe Hue has discovered somebody in Mobile at the Senior Bowl that he can draft later.
First, Haasan Reynolds is a defensive end from Toledo. He annihilated all the offensive tackles all week, and then in the game. He played for Toledo, where he racked up ungodly sack stats. He was expected to get knocked down a peg by the stiffer competition here, but he didn't miss a beat.
He's 6'5", 250 lbs., but is a fit at DE in a 4-3.
But the quarterbacks were Nathan Peterman and Davis Webb. Both kicked butt in the game, and Peterman had in practice all week.
Webb was the South guy that Hue coached. Both were impressive in the game.
Peterman appears more pro-ready, although both are considered project types due to the systems they played in. They weren't required to make line calls, check off, etc; the mental stuff that some guys never do master.
Going to the Senior Bowl was very smart for both of them, as they had several days to prove their ability to process information to NFL coaches, and to learn the NFL basics from them.
Peterman was compared to Kirk Cousins. I didn't hear any comparisons on Webb, but he's got NFL size and a bigger arm (despite his horizontal passing system, nobody questions his arm). Peterman is closer to 6'2", but sturdy. Both can move around, but niether is a real dual threat.
Past Senior Bowl quarterbacks who were drafted lower down include Derrick Carr, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garopollo, and Dak Prescott. Prior to the Senior Bowl, Peterman was projected to go in the fourth round, and Webb (one rank lower) in the fourth or fifth.
Each has now probably moved themselves up a round with their week-long performances.
What are (smart) people saying about them? Well, some think Peterman might have small hands, and don't think he can drive it deep as well as he should. They knock Webb's inconsistent accuracy (but say he IS accurate; remember I told you: "Innacurate while being hit, throwing it away, getting poked in the eye" etc. I no longer pay much attention to this particular criticism).
Webb is a coach's son, and is reputed to have a high football IQ. Both have good experience. Peterman is more a West Coast guy, while Webb might be good in any system. Peterman was the more impressive during the practice week.
Webb was the South team's MVP.
I have to mention safety Lorenzo Jerome here: This guy got two interceptions at the NFLPA College Bowl, then came to Mobile and got two more. Wow.
He is only 5'10", 203 and played for a tiny college. He WAS projected to go in the fifth or sixth round. He isn't even listed on most draft sites (nice job Phil Savage!).
And linebacker Haasan Reddick probably got into the first round. That guy is just a BEAST. He did pile up a ton of sacks, but he's a real linebacker who can mirror, cover, shed, etc as well.
Anyway I got good vibes off the Peterson/Webb analyses, notably by Jim Miller. These are guys with great upsides who are just not ready for primetime yet. They proved at the Senior Bowl that they have the mental hardware to learn and execute pro concepts.
Since, as I've already explained, Cody Kessler is probably going to beat RG3 and start next season, and whichever quarterback the Browns draft is not meant to start in 2017, a guy like this might do just fine.
Thursday, January 26, 2017
Pryor, Thomas, and the Browns
Rhona LaCanfora says the Browns are likely to franchise Terrelle Pryor, and that he would be "crazy" to sign a long-term deal now.
His market value is estimated at around 9.75 million, and the tag would pay him over 15 million, so that does make some sense.
That's if you have made up your mind that the Browns beancounters are too miserly to exceed this laughably low market value on an offer sheet. This value reflects performance, period. It ignores predictable, almost inevittable growth. Pryor isn't a top five wide receiver YET.
TP's career nearly ended after he was released by the Browns last season. None of the 32 teams wanted touch him.
Now, he's slapped the sneers off everybody's faces, and he's just getting started.
If you ask any of the Browns quarterbacks, they'd laugh at 9.75 million and tell Sashi Brown to pay him more. Every one of them leaned heavily on the big guy (too much: Once Calvin Johnson hung it up, Matthew Stafford realized he had other receivers, and made a big jump forward. He had been fixated on the huge, fast guy too. Pryor is irresistable!)
If the Browns bid up to around 12.5 mil, he might take it. They can graduate up non-guaranteed money while shrinking guaranteed money over the contract term, and build in performance incentives to give him opportunities to actually top the 15 mil in his first contract year.
Injury is always a threat. The franchise tag offers zero security. His career could end in training camp, or a severe injury could sideline him, possibly for two seasons, at the end of which he'd be 29 years old, and a risky signing with zero leverage.
It's not as simple as Rhona makes it sound.
I could be wrong, but I think the Browns could also put a first round tender on Pryor. This would give the Browns the right to match any offer. Failing a deal, if he's eligable, this would be much smarter than the franchise tag.
It's highly unlikely that any team would offer a one-year wonder top five wide receiver money, and the deal he comes back with might be...well...12.5 mil. So, much like Ozzie Newsome does, Sashi Brown can let other teams do his negotiating for him.
Terrelle does not want this. I don't remember how much the first round tender is, but it's not even close to ten million, and if he fails to get a better offer, that's what he gets paid in 2017.
AND any team that does sign him away from the Browns has to give them their first round pick. This disincentive would kill most deals in the womb.
I must be missing something here. Maybe he doesn't qualify for the first round tender or something. But if he does and I'm Sashi, that's what I tell his agent: Be reasonable, or he gets tendered...and maybe injured, c?
Offer him 50 million for four years, with 35 mil of it guaranteed, and the first 15 mil in year one, with 13.5 of it guranteed. Then include one million bonusses for 10 or more touchdowns, 1,250 or more yards, and smaller bonuses for downs played as the wildcat qb, rushing yards, etc.
Have the base contract shrink over the course of the contract, with the guaranteed portion down to 6 mil in season 4.
This eats up a ton of cap space in 2017, but right now the Browns have that money to spend. They could do this, and have plenty for Kirksey, Crowell (I might threaten Crow with the second round tender btw), and everybody else PLUS free agents they can steal from other teams.
Then Pryor gets cheaper as he presumably gets better, and he's not too unhappy about it because he's piling up his bonusses.
In re new free agents, signing Jamie Collins was very important. It will get some players who would otherwise cross the Browns off their list to take a second look. Hiring Gregg Williams will have a similar effect; all his former players rave about him.
Joe Thomas doesn't think the Browns should draft a quarterback first overall? I didn't hear the whole interview, but don't doubt that.
What I have read in the exact quotes was that he would prefer a passrusher, and that it is dangerous to reach for a quarterback, because if he craps out, he doesn't help at all.
Good point. A Myles Garrett (or the other bigger guy who can play under-tackle) is a disappointment, he can still PLAY. He might get five sacks instead of twelve, but at least he's part of a rotation and can make some messes here and there. The passrusher is safer.
It's significant that it was Joe Thomas saying this. He practices against Ogbah, and some of the other guys. I know he'd deny it if you asked him, but I now know that he's not impressed by Ogbah.
Joe is the expert here. I have to listen. I officially hereby admit waitaminnit he said "That player has to have an immediate impact" whew!
No he does not, Joe. I know your career clock is ticking louder and louder now, but get real, ok? Your team is not going to make the playoffs in 2017, ok? Don't go getting desperate like that. I know you just want to win more games for now, but you get your days off and haven't been injured and should be fine for long enough to see the playoffs.
Would DeShaun Watson (or Mitch Trubisky for all I know) be a reach, Joe? I know you're an expert on edge-rushers, and if you say this team needs better ones, so be it.
But I respectfully submit to you that Hue Jackson is the quarterback expert.
But what Big Joe said also tells me he likes the quarterback(s) he currently protects. Did anybody else infer that? I thought not. Expect that shortly after I press "publish" gdammit.
I'm not saying Joe is wrong, except about the immediate impact stuff. But I know at least some of what he said, in his own words, and I didn't hear any specific references to any draftable quarterbacks. "Reach" was one word in one sentence. I bet if Joe and I were sharing over beers, he'd admit that Hue Jackson knows more about quarterbacks than he does, and would refuse to pick on Trubisky or Watson.
I think one small part of this is Joe daydreaming about testing himself against (and helping develop) Myles Garrett.
Fun to think about, isn't it? Joe shutting the kid down, then telling him why? I'm certain that Joe Thomas wants to play Doctor Frankenstein, and make all the other left tackles look bad.
Of COURSE the Browns haven't ruled out trading down! My suspicion that Hue might want Watson or Trubisky is mostly a guess, but if I guessed right, drafting that guy first overall could be a waste of potential if they can get him and more good stuff too.
A lot will happen between now and draft day, and some of the "needs" analysis is extremely shallow and myopic. Buffalo could extend Tyrod Taylor after all. Somebody else could trade for Garopollo. Chicago could finally admit that they might already have their quarterback (which they DO).
Somebody might be dumb enough to think Jay Cutler is just misunderstood, and somebody probably will pay up for Tony Romo.
Myles Garrett is generally percieved as a generational talent, and Sashi Brown can be certain that a given trade partner wants him, and not a quarterback. A few scouts rank Jonathan Allen even higher than Garrett.
In the last draft, everybody agreed that no team could possibly like Goff and Wentz equally. This was rediculous. It IS possible for two quarterbacks to be equal. It's irrational to deny this.
Doctor Frankenstein Jackson might like BOTH Trubisky and Watson (and/or conceivably Kizer). No doubt he has a favorite, but figures he can make the second guy just as good.
IF IF IF a quarterback is the target, by the time the draft rolls around, the Browns could trade down and still get Hue's quarterback.
There are too many variables here for further speculation, but I'll be blogging on the eve of the draft.
I hear you, waittilnextyear and Black Cloud, about Julio Jones and stuff. This and the MARC SANCHEZ trades were actually good, for the value previous, long gone GMs got for them. They just missed on nearly every pick they got off those trades. That's a totally separate issue, isn't it? And uhh...Matt Ryan? I mean, doesn't he have something to do with this?
Please think with your brain: If you can trade down and still get the guy you want anyway, it's a no-brainer even if you MISS on all the other picks you got! And even if you miss on your top target, it has zero to do with the trade-down strategy.
New topic:
I've re-thunk safety in the Gregg Williams defense. Just as Williams needs a smart veteran middle linebacker to make defensive calls, he also needs a hybrid ss/lb player to be a nominal linebacker in nickles and dimes.
This player is a run-and-hit linebacker who can take down big running backs or tight ends, as well as cover. Gregg has used safeties in this role, even though they were deemed too small.
So Jabrill Peppers could be a good pick at 12. He's been knocked for not getting a lot of interceptions, but he's a perfect fit for Gregg's defense. The guy he needs is a swiss army knife, and Peppers is that.
It's more important than another passrusher. Without this enforcer, Williams defenses get burned too often. I still think one of two young safeties on the current roster can fill this role, or conceivably Shobert, but they need to make sure.
Anyway, YOU STAND CORRECTED
His market value is estimated at around 9.75 million, and the tag would pay him over 15 million, so that does make some sense.
That's if you have made up your mind that the Browns beancounters are too miserly to exceed this laughably low market value on an offer sheet. This value reflects performance, period. It ignores predictable, almost inevittable growth. Pryor isn't a top five wide receiver YET.
TP's career nearly ended after he was released by the Browns last season. None of the 32 teams wanted touch him.
Now, he's slapped the sneers off everybody's faces, and he's just getting started.
If you ask any of the Browns quarterbacks, they'd laugh at 9.75 million and tell Sashi Brown to pay him more. Every one of them leaned heavily on the big guy (too much: Once Calvin Johnson hung it up, Matthew Stafford realized he had other receivers, and made a big jump forward. He had been fixated on the huge, fast guy too. Pryor is irresistable!)
If the Browns bid up to around 12.5 mil, he might take it. They can graduate up non-guaranteed money while shrinking guaranteed money over the contract term, and build in performance incentives to give him opportunities to actually top the 15 mil in his first contract year.
Injury is always a threat. The franchise tag offers zero security. His career could end in training camp, or a severe injury could sideline him, possibly for two seasons, at the end of which he'd be 29 years old, and a risky signing with zero leverage.
It's not as simple as Rhona makes it sound.
I could be wrong, but I think the Browns could also put a first round tender on Pryor. This would give the Browns the right to match any offer. Failing a deal, if he's eligable, this would be much smarter than the franchise tag.
It's highly unlikely that any team would offer a one-year wonder top five wide receiver money, and the deal he comes back with might be...well...12.5 mil. So, much like Ozzie Newsome does, Sashi Brown can let other teams do his negotiating for him.
Terrelle does not want this. I don't remember how much the first round tender is, but it's not even close to ten million, and if he fails to get a better offer, that's what he gets paid in 2017.
AND any team that does sign him away from the Browns has to give them their first round pick. This disincentive would kill most deals in the womb.
I must be missing something here. Maybe he doesn't qualify for the first round tender or something. But if he does and I'm Sashi, that's what I tell his agent: Be reasonable, or he gets tendered...and maybe injured, c?
Offer him 50 million for four years, with 35 mil of it guaranteed, and the first 15 mil in year one, with 13.5 of it guranteed. Then include one million bonusses for 10 or more touchdowns, 1,250 or more yards, and smaller bonuses for downs played as the wildcat qb, rushing yards, etc.
Have the base contract shrink over the course of the contract, with the guaranteed portion down to 6 mil in season 4.
This eats up a ton of cap space in 2017, but right now the Browns have that money to spend. They could do this, and have plenty for Kirksey, Crowell (I might threaten Crow with the second round tender btw), and everybody else PLUS free agents they can steal from other teams.
Then Pryor gets cheaper as he presumably gets better, and he's not too unhappy about it because he's piling up his bonusses.
In re new free agents, signing Jamie Collins was very important. It will get some players who would otherwise cross the Browns off their list to take a second look. Hiring Gregg Williams will have a similar effect; all his former players rave about him.
Joe Thomas doesn't think the Browns should draft a quarterback first overall? I didn't hear the whole interview, but don't doubt that.
What I have read in the exact quotes was that he would prefer a passrusher, and that it is dangerous to reach for a quarterback, because if he craps out, he doesn't help at all.
Good point. A Myles Garrett (or the other bigger guy who can play under-tackle) is a disappointment, he can still PLAY. He might get five sacks instead of twelve, but at least he's part of a rotation and can make some messes here and there. The passrusher is safer.
It's significant that it was Joe Thomas saying this. He practices against Ogbah, and some of the other guys. I know he'd deny it if you asked him, but I now know that he's not impressed by Ogbah.
Joe is the expert here. I have to listen. I officially hereby admit waitaminnit he said "That player has to have an immediate impact" whew!
No he does not, Joe. I know your career clock is ticking louder and louder now, but get real, ok? Your team is not going to make the playoffs in 2017, ok? Don't go getting desperate like that. I know you just want to win more games for now, but you get your days off and haven't been injured and should be fine for long enough to see the playoffs.
Would DeShaun Watson (or Mitch Trubisky for all I know) be a reach, Joe? I know you're an expert on edge-rushers, and if you say this team needs better ones, so be it.
But I respectfully submit to you that Hue Jackson is the quarterback expert.
But what Big Joe said also tells me he likes the quarterback(s) he currently protects. Did anybody else infer that? I thought not. Expect that shortly after I press "publish" gdammit.
I'm not saying Joe is wrong, except about the immediate impact stuff. But I know at least some of what he said, in his own words, and I didn't hear any specific references to any draftable quarterbacks. "Reach" was one word in one sentence. I bet if Joe and I were sharing over beers, he'd admit that Hue Jackson knows more about quarterbacks than he does, and would refuse to pick on Trubisky or Watson.
I think one small part of this is Joe daydreaming about testing himself against (and helping develop) Myles Garrett.
Fun to think about, isn't it? Joe shutting the kid down, then telling him why? I'm certain that Joe Thomas wants to play Doctor Frankenstein, and make all the other left tackles look bad.
Of COURSE the Browns haven't ruled out trading down! My suspicion that Hue might want Watson or Trubisky is mostly a guess, but if I guessed right, drafting that guy first overall could be a waste of potential if they can get him and more good stuff too.
A lot will happen between now and draft day, and some of the "needs" analysis is extremely shallow and myopic. Buffalo could extend Tyrod Taylor after all. Somebody else could trade for Garopollo. Chicago could finally admit that they might already have their quarterback (which they DO).
Somebody might be dumb enough to think Jay Cutler is just misunderstood, and somebody probably will pay up for Tony Romo.
Myles Garrett is generally percieved as a generational talent, and Sashi Brown can be certain that a given trade partner wants him, and not a quarterback. A few scouts rank Jonathan Allen even higher than Garrett.
In the last draft, everybody agreed that no team could possibly like Goff and Wentz equally. This was rediculous. It IS possible for two quarterbacks to be equal. It's irrational to deny this.
Doctor Frankenstein Jackson might like BOTH Trubisky and Watson (and/or conceivably Kizer). No doubt he has a favorite, but figures he can make the second guy just as good.
IF IF IF a quarterback is the target, by the time the draft rolls around, the Browns could trade down and still get Hue's quarterback.
There are too many variables here for further speculation, but I'll be blogging on the eve of the draft.
I hear you, waittilnextyear and Black Cloud, about Julio Jones and stuff. This and the MARC SANCHEZ trades were actually good, for the value previous, long gone GMs got for them. They just missed on nearly every pick they got off those trades. That's a totally separate issue, isn't it? And uhh...Matt Ryan? I mean, doesn't he have something to do with this?
Please think with your brain: If you can trade down and still get the guy you want anyway, it's a no-brainer even if you MISS on all the other picks you got! And even if you miss on your top target, it has zero to do with the trade-down strategy.
New topic:
I've re-thunk safety in the Gregg Williams defense. Just as Williams needs a smart veteran middle linebacker to make defensive calls, he also needs a hybrid ss/lb player to be a nominal linebacker in nickles and dimes.
This player is a run-and-hit linebacker who can take down big running backs or tight ends, as well as cover. Gregg has used safeties in this role, even though they were deemed too small.
So Jabrill Peppers could be a good pick at 12. He's been knocked for not getting a lot of interceptions, but he's a perfect fit for Gregg's defense. The guy he needs is a swiss army knife, and Peppers is that.
It's more important than another passrusher. Without this enforcer, Williams defenses get burned too often. I still think one of two young safeties on the current roster can fill this role, or conceivably Shobert, but they need to make sure.
Anyway, YOU STAND CORRECTED
Wednesday, January 25, 2017
Jamie Collins, Gregg Williams, the Browns, and Stuff
Much has been made over the retention of undisciplined freelancer Jamie Williams, as it should be. But nobody has yet put him together with Gregg Williams (I don't think; I couldn't access one article which might have addressed it).
Gregg talks about his 42 different fronts, but as I've posted a lot, his ideal is four down linemen, penetrating and attacking, as a base. If he has those four guys, and 2-3 rotational guys to keep them fresh, it makes things a lot easier.
This front applies in nickels, and sometimes in dimes.
As Terry Pluto documented, Gregg Williams does NOT always turn defenses around immediately. But in this case, he can and will.
Jamie Collins is integral to this. Jamie Collins is likely to be his MIDDLE linebacker (which is why mock drafters drafting inside linebackers 12th overall are on par with those who think Gramps Romo is a good idea).
Collins can play any linebacker position in any scheme, but is ideal right in the middle, with Demario Davis coming in when he moves around. These two are experienced veterans with some size who can call the plays (which Williams uniquely demands of his middle linebackers; they're like defensive quarterbacks who align the defense to what they see, and literally call plays).
Chris Kirksey has turned into a very good linebacker, but he and Schobert are smaller, and better suited to play weak outside in this scheme.
Jamie Collins could be on the strong side with Davis in the middle. Other possibles there are Nate Orchard and Cam Johnson.
Orchard and Johnson are both pleasant surprises. They're both converted passrushing defensive ends who were projected as 3-4 outside linebackers, but seem to move well enough to play that position in a 4-3 as well.
Johnson, in particular, became surprisingly good in coverage (although that's a "process", and none of them are where they need to be. I'm not sure what went on here, but Jamie Collins seemed to forget how to cover as soon as he came here. PFF said he just plain sucked. That's wierd, because he was excellent in coverage up until he put on an orange helmet.)
Williams may just want Collins in the middle. If he's directing the traffic, he can "freelance" all he wants, because he can call his own shots before the snap. This might have been one of the reasons he opted to sign an extention rather that testing the market.
If I'm correct about this, Ogbah is right (weakside) DE, Meder/Cooper right (under) DT, Shelton left DT, and Rodney Nassibfield left DE.
Kirksey (Schobert) weak outside, Collins (Davis) middle, and Orchard or Johnson strong outside.
Dominique Alexander is a wildcard here. He's similar to Kirksey.
Williams may well want to draft a true strongside linebacker and under-tackle (although I still have hope for X Cooper there), but this could be a very good front seven with Big Jamie in the middle of it running the show.
As I've mentioned, Gregg Williams loves pressure, and often sends five passrushers. Collins in the middle would be nearest the quarterback, and both outside guys can bring it from the edge.
SO it's ok if first overall you draft...
Gregg talks about his 42 different fronts, but as I've posted a lot, his ideal is four down linemen, penetrating and attacking, as a base. If he has those four guys, and 2-3 rotational guys to keep them fresh, it makes things a lot easier.
This front applies in nickels, and sometimes in dimes.
As Terry Pluto documented, Gregg Williams does NOT always turn defenses around immediately. But in this case, he can and will.
Jamie Collins is integral to this. Jamie Collins is likely to be his MIDDLE linebacker (which is why mock drafters drafting inside linebackers 12th overall are on par with those who think Gramps Romo is a good idea).
Collins can play any linebacker position in any scheme, but is ideal right in the middle, with Demario Davis coming in when he moves around. These two are experienced veterans with some size who can call the plays (which Williams uniquely demands of his middle linebackers; they're like defensive quarterbacks who align the defense to what they see, and literally call plays).
Chris Kirksey has turned into a very good linebacker, but he and Schobert are smaller, and better suited to play weak outside in this scheme.
Jamie Collins could be on the strong side with Davis in the middle. Other possibles there are Nate Orchard and Cam Johnson.
Orchard and Johnson are both pleasant surprises. They're both converted passrushing defensive ends who were projected as 3-4 outside linebackers, but seem to move well enough to play that position in a 4-3 as well.
Johnson, in particular, became surprisingly good in coverage (although that's a "process", and none of them are where they need to be. I'm not sure what went on here, but Jamie Collins seemed to forget how to cover as soon as he came here. PFF said he just plain sucked. That's wierd, because he was excellent in coverage up until he put on an orange helmet.)
Williams may just want Collins in the middle. If he's directing the traffic, he can "freelance" all he wants, because he can call his own shots before the snap. This might have been one of the reasons he opted to sign an extention rather that testing the market.
If I'm correct about this, Ogbah is right (weakside) DE, Meder/Cooper right (under) DT, Shelton left DT, and Rodney Nassibfield left DE.
Kirksey (Schobert) weak outside, Collins (Davis) middle, and Orchard or Johnson strong outside.
Dominique Alexander is a wildcard here. He's similar to Kirksey.
Williams may well want to draft a true strongside linebacker and under-tackle (although I still have hope for X Cooper there), but this could be a very good front seven with Big Jamie in the middle of it running the show.
As I've mentioned, Gregg Williams loves pressure, and often sends five passrushers. Collins in the middle would be nearest the quarterback, and both outside guys can bring it from the edge.
SO it's ok if first overall you draft...
Monday, January 23, 2017
Chris Carter, Cognitive Disonance, Superstition, and the Browns
Chris Carter knows his football and isn't an idiot, but he's like many players and most fans: Irrational. As this article describes, Chris urges Deshaun Watson not to go to Cleveland.
Chris referred to an irrefutably dismal history of failure, but here's where he gets hysterical:
He mentions Alex Mack, who's grading roads for the Falcons now. Well, Mack was average per PFF in 2016, was thirty years old, and is a mercenary. Like many players, Chris thinks everybody should get paid as much as they want. I can guess how he votes.
He should have brought up Mitchell Scwartze. That one would have hit home...except as you will see, right tackle will be just fine in 2017.
He cites Taylor Gabriel. He's got a point there, too. The designated smurf retained here was Andrew Hawkins instead. The Browns said they felt he could help the younger receivers more. But Chris is right: Gabriel was clearly the better player.
...but what "wide receiver problems"? Four rookies and Pryor, you mean? A broken hand? Shaky quarterbacks--those problems? The ones that are about to solve themselves?
And what the hell does Dion Lewis have to do with any member of this front office or coaching staff? Ask Carter what he thinks of Hue Jackson. I guarantee you he likes him.
That's called cognitive disonance. He's telling Watson not to come to Cleveland to be coached by Hue Jackson, throw to Coleman, Barnidge, and Pryor, hand off to Crowell and Johnson, with a young defense coached by Gregg Williams, Joe Thomas at his back with Bitonio next to him, because...ummm...
I gave him Gabriel and Schwartze. Why can't he give me Pryor, Collins, Ogbah, and those defensive backs they grabbed off the streets?
Chis, hello? Chris hit the ground running as an NFL rookie receiver. Well, he played for Ohio State and was huge at that time. But he knows damn well that's unusual; most receivers take time to develop. Nor was the rookie Chris Carter anything like the third year player who played opposite Randy Moss.
14 rookies, Chris. Rebuild. Is any of this sinking in? Do you understand that you are logicly challenged? Unfair to a bunch of coaches you'd no doubt admit don't suck, and a bunch of rookies you're comdemning without a fair trial.
Deshaun, you graduated early, so I guess you won't listen to that crap. You're probably a critical thinker.
Go ahead kick the tires. Just read my blog. You'll see: There is lots of talent here, and nearly all of it will be significantly better next season than it was last season. You would have not just Hue Jackson, but also Josh McCown in some capacity helping you out.
When Chris gives you advice, just sort of pretend you agree with him and thank him. Tell him what an impressive player he was (he'll like that).
Then give Hue or Josh a call.
By the way, Pat Kirwan points out that 70% of today's NFL passes are thrown from the shotgun. Among the most shotgun-oriented quarterbacks were the four who played last sunday. So how much does a Deshaun Watson have to learn huh?
Solomon Wilcotts is VERY impressed by Watson, and was all set to duke it out with Kirwan, except Kirwan didn't argue with him.
Remember: Wilcotts was a safety.
They both like Trubisky too, but are scared to death by his lack of experience. Watson has plenty of tape, vs the very best defenses and in the very biggest games.
Bill Polian is unimpressed, and is probably the guy cited by a fellow writer and NFL listener. Bill still thinks he's a second round value.
I can't toe the line with this NFL legend. The guy built TWO dynasties. This aint just some ex-player.
I just think he is wrong. I want to look up what he said about Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. I bet he called the former a backup and the latter a risky project with upside. I also wonder if he likes any quarterbacks under 6'3" or 220 lbs. His guys were Jim Kelly and Peyton Manning. They were both pretty easy picks to make.
Polian also said "It doesn't matter". As Brady Quinn explains, there is a rookie salary scale now. Once that happened, all bets were off on quarterbacks, because most of the risk was taken out.
Sam Bradford was the last top quarterback drafted on the old deal. He squeezed every last dime out of it, and gobbled up something like 15% of the Rams salary cap, and we know the rest. Bradford's BASELINE was first overall money, but because he was a quarterback, he exrorted a massive premium on top of that as well.
Now, quarterbacks are the same as everybody else AND the agents can't hold out and extort more than just details. So teams take more risks.
For the Browns, if they draft a Trubisky or a Watson first overall, here is what could happen:
1: By year 3, he is a top 7-10 starter or better. This justifies the pick.
2: By year 3, he's a top 10-15 guy. That's ok. We get to lowball him on his second contract and hope he blossoms. This is a Ryan Tannehill situation. A lot of fans want to lynch us for not having taken Garrett instead, but in reality we are in better shape than we were at quarterback, and can win.
3: We got a backup. Bad pick.
BUT in none of these situations do the Browns mortgage their future on this one ONE draft pick. A team can whiff on a quarterback, and not be condemned to mediocrity for the duration of his massively inflated contract.
So, as Bill Polian will tell you, quarterbacks that grade out as low first or second round picks are drafted in the top ten every year, and each draft is like a quarterback auction.
Bill and I would get along fine, because he would also tell you that sometimes the grades don't matter. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were obsessive. They studied films obsessively, and force coaches to stand back in practice, because they jump all over their receivers when they screw up.
Bill is one of the guys who taught ME that THE most important thing any quarterback can have is dedication. And Bill (I like him: Sounds so nice and smart with his vocabulary and all, but he's brutally honest and unafraid of offending people)...
Bill will tell you, this first guy in last guy out film study blahblah stuff has become standard talking points for every quarterback on every team, and it's sickening and mostly bullshit.
I don't know about Mitch Trubisky, but I do know, reliably, that Deshaun Watson really is dedicated. From his coaches, teammates, and documented history. He is smart, disciplined, and a workaholic.
He's a leader, but not like Brady. Tom Brady lets his receivers have it when they screw up. Watson is more like Peyton Manning, but gets his messages across all the same.
Like both of them, he knows what all eleven guys are supposed to be doing on the offense. He knows his whole offense, in depth, like an offensive coordinator.
Bill Polian did tip his hand to me/make me feel better about his second round grade on Watson. Bill factors in "readiness" more than I do. He feels that any quarterback taken high in the first round should be able to start during his rookie season.
He's not talking about potential or talent. He's just being kind of Martonian, and sticking with the "immediate contribution" rule. I'm sure that if I could interview Bill, he'd concede dedication, intelligence, leadership, talent, and nerves. We might quibble over how much his size matters, but I'd nail him down:
Watson looks like an injury waiting to happen. He runs around like a scatback, but never slides. He does have a lot of starts, but not thirty (Parcells rule: A college quarterback needs 30 starts to succeed as a rookie).
Polian would stipulate talent, leadership, and intelligence. He would say, at the end of it, that he thinks he's vulnerable to injury (hence unreliable), not ready to start in the NFL at this point, and...well that's why he puts a second round grade on him.
Marty Schottenheimer was also real smart. Bill is like that.
When Bill Polian drafted Jim Kelly, and then Peyton Manning, he put his career on the line. To this day, he measures every quarterback against them.
All things considered, were the Browns to draft Deshaun Watson first overall, Bill might throw his hands up. But I don't think he'd call it a mistake.
Chris referred to an irrefutably dismal history of failure, but here's where he gets hysterical:
He mentions Alex Mack, who's grading roads for the Falcons now. Well, Mack was average per PFF in 2016, was thirty years old, and is a mercenary. Like many players, Chris thinks everybody should get paid as much as they want. I can guess how he votes.
He should have brought up Mitchell Scwartze. That one would have hit home...except as you will see, right tackle will be just fine in 2017.
He cites Taylor Gabriel. He's got a point there, too. The designated smurf retained here was Andrew Hawkins instead. The Browns said they felt he could help the younger receivers more. But Chris is right: Gabriel was clearly the better player.
...but what "wide receiver problems"? Four rookies and Pryor, you mean? A broken hand? Shaky quarterbacks--those problems? The ones that are about to solve themselves?
And what the hell does Dion Lewis have to do with any member of this front office or coaching staff? Ask Carter what he thinks of Hue Jackson. I guarantee you he likes him.
That's called cognitive disonance. He's telling Watson not to come to Cleveland to be coached by Hue Jackson, throw to Coleman, Barnidge, and Pryor, hand off to Crowell and Johnson, with a young defense coached by Gregg Williams, Joe Thomas at his back with Bitonio next to him, because...ummm...
I gave him Gabriel and Schwartze. Why can't he give me Pryor, Collins, Ogbah, and those defensive backs they grabbed off the streets?
Chis, hello? Chris hit the ground running as an NFL rookie receiver. Well, he played for Ohio State and was huge at that time. But he knows damn well that's unusual; most receivers take time to develop. Nor was the rookie Chris Carter anything like the third year player who played opposite Randy Moss.
14 rookies, Chris. Rebuild. Is any of this sinking in? Do you understand that you are logicly challenged? Unfair to a bunch of coaches you'd no doubt admit don't suck, and a bunch of rookies you're comdemning without a fair trial.
Deshaun, you graduated early, so I guess you won't listen to that crap. You're probably a critical thinker.
Go ahead kick the tires. Just read my blog. You'll see: There is lots of talent here, and nearly all of it will be significantly better next season than it was last season. You would have not just Hue Jackson, but also Josh McCown in some capacity helping you out.
When Chris gives you advice, just sort of pretend you agree with him and thank him. Tell him what an impressive player he was (he'll like that).
Then give Hue or Josh a call.
By the way, Pat Kirwan points out that 70% of today's NFL passes are thrown from the shotgun. Among the most shotgun-oriented quarterbacks were the four who played last sunday. So how much does a Deshaun Watson have to learn huh?
Solomon Wilcotts is VERY impressed by Watson, and was all set to duke it out with Kirwan, except Kirwan didn't argue with him.
Remember: Wilcotts was a safety.
They both like Trubisky too, but are scared to death by his lack of experience. Watson has plenty of tape, vs the very best defenses and in the very biggest games.
Bill Polian is unimpressed, and is probably the guy cited by a fellow writer and NFL listener. Bill still thinks he's a second round value.
I can't toe the line with this NFL legend. The guy built TWO dynasties. This aint just some ex-player.
I just think he is wrong. I want to look up what he said about Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. I bet he called the former a backup and the latter a risky project with upside. I also wonder if he likes any quarterbacks under 6'3" or 220 lbs. His guys were Jim Kelly and Peyton Manning. They were both pretty easy picks to make.
Polian also said "It doesn't matter". As Brady Quinn explains, there is a rookie salary scale now. Once that happened, all bets were off on quarterbacks, because most of the risk was taken out.
Sam Bradford was the last top quarterback drafted on the old deal. He squeezed every last dime out of it, and gobbled up something like 15% of the Rams salary cap, and we know the rest. Bradford's BASELINE was first overall money, but because he was a quarterback, he exrorted a massive premium on top of that as well.
Now, quarterbacks are the same as everybody else AND the agents can't hold out and extort more than just details. So teams take more risks.
For the Browns, if they draft a Trubisky or a Watson first overall, here is what could happen:
1: By year 3, he is a top 7-10 starter or better. This justifies the pick.
2: By year 3, he's a top 10-15 guy. That's ok. We get to lowball him on his second contract and hope he blossoms. This is a Ryan Tannehill situation. A lot of fans want to lynch us for not having taken Garrett instead, but in reality we are in better shape than we were at quarterback, and can win.
3: We got a backup. Bad pick.
BUT in none of these situations do the Browns mortgage their future on this one ONE draft pick. A team can whiff on a quarterback, and not be condemned to mediocrity for the duration of his massively inflated contract.
So, as Bill Polian will tell you, quarterbacks that grade out as low first or second round picks are drafted in the top ten every year, and each draft is like a quarterback auction.
Bill and I would get along fine, because he would also tell you that sometimes the grades don't matter. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were obsessive. They studied films obsessively, and force coaches to stand back in practice, because they jump all over their receivers when they screw up.
Bill is one of the guys who taught ME that THE most important thing any quarterback can have is dedication. And Bill (I like him: Sounds so nice and smart with his vocabulary and all, but he's brutally honest and unafraid of offending people)...
Bill will tell you, this first guy in last guy out film study blahblah stuff has become standard talking points for every quarterback on every team, and it's sickening and mostly bullshit.
I don't know about Mitch Trubisky, but I do know, reliably, that Deshaun Watson really is dedicated. From his coaches, teammates, and documented history. He is smart, disciplined, and a workaholic.
He's a leader, but not like Brady. Tom Brady lets his receivers have it when they screw up. Watson is more like Peyton Manning, but gets his messages across all the same.
Like both of them, he knows what all eleven guys are supposed to be doing on the offense. He knows his whole offense, in depth, like an offensive coordinator.
Bill Polian did tip his hand to me/make me feel better about his second round grade on Watson. Bill factors in "readiness" more than I do. He feels that any quarterback taken high in the first round should be able to start during his rookie season.
He's not talking about potential or talent. He's just being kind of Martonian, and sticking with the "immediate contribution" rule. I'm sure that if I could interview Bill, he'd concede dedication, intelligence, leadership, talent, and nerves. We might quibble over how much his size matters, but I'd nail him down:
Watson looks like an injury waiting to happen. He runs around like a scatback, but never slides. He does have a lot of starts, but not thirty (Parcells rule: A college quarterback needs 30 starts to succeed as a rookie).
Polian would stipulate talent, leadership, and intelligence. He would say, at the end of it, that he thinks he's vulnerable to injury (hence unreliable), not ready to start in the NFL at this point, and...well that's why he puts a second round grade on him.
Marty Schottenheimer was also real smart. Bill is like that.
When Bill Polian drafted Jim Kelly, and then Peyton Manning, he put his career on the line. To this day, he measures every quarterback against them.
All things considered, were the Browns to draft Deshaun Watson first overall, Bill might throw his hands up. But I don't think he'd call it a mistake.
Sunday, January 22, 2017
More Browns Corrections
A Tennessee writer proposed this trade idea involving the Titans and Browns. He has the Browns drafting Myles Garrett first overall, then coughing up 12 and 33 to the Titans for the fifth overall pick, where they draft Deshaun Watson.
That is MUCH MUCH MUCH more realistic than sitting at 12 rubbing your rabbit's foot hoping nobody else drafts him (assuming Hue does indeed want him bad). I would even consider it.
But it still puts Watson at risk. Consensus has Trubisky going first among the quarterbacks, but even that is speculation.
The writer and everybody else persists in delaring EDGE a need for the Browns. As I've said, Garrett would upgrade any roster, but they are already overloaded with edge-rushers.
That 33rd overall pick could be a big cornerback, super-safety, center, or Joe Thomas successor. So could 12.
The hell with everybody else's opinions. If Hue sees a franchise guy here, just put on your helmet, call security, prepare the back exit and the bunker, and draft him instead of Garrett.
John McMullen (fanrag sports) wrote a nice article on the Jamie Collins contract, explaining the rationale quite well.
But John describes it as a shift in philosophy, and refers to "moneyball". He's wrong. Paul DePodesta wears the moneyball label, but football isn't baseball. Analytics is about maximizing efficiency and getting the best long-term values.
Jamie Collins is only 27 years old. He may have five or more years left. He is a proven commodity.
The Browns didn't overpay. The Kuechly contract is three years old, and caps have risen twice since then. As John himself points out, Kuechly will soon get a new contract, and suddenly make the Collins deal look pretty square.
There is no philosophical shift here. They're working on Isaiah Crowell as I write this, and probably Pryor and others as well.
On Crowell, the "stalemate" talk is troubling. There IS a limit to how much a team can pay a running back, and it is possible the Crow is being too greedy.
George Atkinson is highly underrated. We barely saw him in the backfield last season, but while Crowell was sucking oxygen on the bench, this guy plowed through the middle of the Steelers defensive line for a 5-yard touchdown. Went in standing up.
The knocks on Atkinson were that he didn't break tackles, and wasn't very explosive out of his cuts. Apparently, he's become much stronger, because that touchdown was just brute force.
Oh yeah "upright runner". He's 6'1", so just flush that baloney. Next time you run, try leaning foreward, and tell me how that works for you.
Atkinson has blistering running back speed and can line up at wide receiver.
If Crowell doesn't re-sign, please do not start hallucinating about urgent dire needs at running back.
Ryan Rosco may have read this blog, because he wants you to know that the Browns front seven is already in fine shape.
He and Terry Pluto also see a desperate need for a playmaking safety. While a real stud would help, there is no such need at that position.
Gregg Williams does indeed rely heavily on his safeties, and really wants a star back there, but the jury is still out on two promising young players with the size and speed Gregg wants, and Ed Reynolds is a solid and very smart player.
The secondary needs bigger cornerbacks more than it needs anybody else. Cornerbacks who tackle well, and safeties who hit hard.
But Ryan is right. The front seven is full of talented, ascending young players, and if you list any of those positions as a need, you're not looking beyond the crudest statistics.
Gregg Williams will not tolerate blown tackles, and this same group of guys will miraculously become good. It's really that simple.
YOU STAND CORRECTED
That is MUCH MUCH MUCH more realistic than sitting at 12 rubbing your rabbit's foot hoping nobody else drafts him (assuming Hue does indeed want him bad). I would even consider it.
But it still puts Watson at risk. Consensus has Trubisky going first among the quarterbacks, but even that is speculation.
The writer and everybody else persists in delaring EDGE a need for the Browns. As I've said, Garrett would upgrade any roster, but they are already overloaded with edge-rushers.
That 33rd overall pick could be a big cornerback, super-safety, center, or Joe Thomas successor. So could 12.
The hell with everybody else's opinions. If Hue sees a franchise guy here, just put on your helmet, call security, prepare the back exit and the bunker, and draft him instead of Garrett.
John McMullen (fanrag sports) wrote a nice article on the Jamie Collins contract, explaining the rationale quite well.
But John describes it as a shift in philosophy, and refers to "moneyball". He's wrong. Paul DePodesta wears the moneyball label, but football isn't baseball. Analytics is about maximizing efficiency and getting the best long-term values.
Jamie Collins is only 27 years old. He may have five or more years left. He is a proven commodity.
The Browns didn't overpay. The Kuechly contract is three years old, and caps have risen twice since then. As John himself points out, Kuechly will soon get a new contract, and suddenly make the Collins deal look pretty square.
There is no philosophical shift here. They're working on Isaiah Crowell as I write this, and probably Pryor and others as well.
On Crowell, the "stalemate" talk is troubling. There IS a limit to how much a team can pay a running back, and it is possible the Crow is being too greedy.
George Atkinson is highly underrated. We barely saw him in the backfield last season, but while Crowell was sucking oxygen on the bench, this guy plowed through the middle of the Steelers defensive line for a 5-yard touchdown. Went in standing up.
The knocks on Atkinson were that he didn't break tackles, and wasn't very explosive out of his cuts. Apparently, he's become much stronger, because that touchdown was just brute force.
Oh yeah "upright runner". He's 6'1", so just flush that baloney. Next time you run, try leaning foreward, and tell me how that works for you.
Atkinson has blistering running back speed and can line up at wide receiver.
If Crowell doesn't re-sign, please do not start hallucinating about urgent dire needs at running back.
Ryan Rosco may have read this blog, because he wants you to know that the Browns front seven is already in fine shape.
He and Terry Pluto also see a desperate need for a playmaking safety. While a real stud would help, there is no such need at that position.
Gregg Williams does indeed rely heavily on his safeties, and really wants a star back there, but the jury is still out on two promising young players with the size and speed Gregg wants, and Ed Reynolds is a solid and very smart player.
The secondary needs bigger cornerbacks more than it needs anybody else. Cornerbacks who tackle well, and safeties who hit hard.
But Ryan is right. The front seven is full of talented, ascending young players, and if you list any of those positions as a need, you're not looking beyond the crudest statistics.
Gregg Williams will not tolerate blown tackles, and this same group of guys will miraculously become good. It's really that simple.
YOU STAND CORRECTED
Friday, January 20, 2017
Put on your Waders: Browns Analysis Corrections
It's been a great day for correctable material!
First, there's Mel Kiper. Mel thinks the Browns trading for Jimmy Garopollo seems to make the most sense from among the potential contenders.
He's not wrong about that. But he goes on to say that if they drafted Mitch Trubisky, they'd need to park him on the bench for a season. That's not incorrect either.
What's incorrect is the premise that a new Browns quarterback has to start in 2017. Regardless of what Hue Jackson says, this team still plays in the AFC North, and will not be ready for primetime in 2017.
I think I know what Mel would say to that: The new quarterback will need game experience to develop, and the sooner the better. So stipulated. He would also say that when you draft a player that high, he has to make an immediate impact. Says who? They need to win seven instead of five games why?
Mel also seems to dismiss Deshaun Watson, and some mock drafts drop him to the 25th pick in the first round. I know Kiper has been doing this forever, and is right more often than he is wrong about players, but I'm having a hard time understanding this.
Just because of the shotgun spread? Because he's 205 lbs? That was Alabama, both times, and Nick Saban, you know. Around 900 total yards didn't change anything? Does the Buckeye massacre even count? What am I missing here?
Some other guy expects the Browns to pursue the 32 year old, thrice injured Adrian Peterson in year two of their rebuild. Need I say more? Yes, I do: Who the hell hires these people?
And Gramps Romo! And his salary! Stop please stop!
Others regard Tyrod Taylor as a top target, basicly as a bridge quarterback. Hue Jackson will not favor a less accurate, less decisive quarterback over Cody Kessler...or even RG3.
No knock on Taylor, but he's just not an upgrade here in the real world.
Gregg Williams said all kinds of great stuff at his news conference. What I liked best was what he said about tackling. Had the Ray Horton defenders not blown so very, very many tackles, they might have won 3-4 games...maybe even more.
Yes, he does have around 42 fronts, but with the personnel he inherits he will run a lot of 4-man fronts (see earlier post).
As that post points out, a lot of this is semantics. He might have Carl Nassib standing up in the exact same place sometimes, just for giggles. Big deal.
The Williams hiring hasn't caused anyone to miss a drumbeat on the Myles Garrett march, but it should. The Browns are going to have to release at least one pretty good edge-rusher as it is.
While Garrett would undeniably be a big upgrade, believe me or not, this is not a priority position of need. In a 4-3, Garrett would replace Nassib or Ogbah, both of whome will enter their second seasons much improved. Why is everybody so eager to kick Orchard, Holmes, and Johnson to the curb?
The Browns might get five or six more sacks with him than they would without him. Is six sacks worth a first overall pick?
Don't get me wrong the guy is just a beast, and yes, you take him IF you don't take a quarterback first overall.
Popular opinion now is that Deshaun Watson should be there for the Browns at number twelve, and that nobody would trade ahead of them to nab him.
Well there may be Garopollo if Bill trades him, then a couple other veterans could shake loose to eliminate a couple other quarterback-hungry teams from the competition, but you're assuming here that the Bills, Bears, 49ers, Jets, all agree with the amatuer consensus that Watson's career accomplishments were all flukes, and that with all the other guys gone, none of the teams behind the Browns will trade up to screw the Browns out of him.
This seems delusional. If the wild guess reports are accidentally accurate, and the Browns really are enamored with this "second round talent", it's because they believe he is a potential franchise quarterback.
Gil Brandt, Pat Kirwan, and every other former GM or head coach on NFL Radio say the same thing: If you can get your guy, you don't take ANY risks. You just take him.
Look at this last draft! Look what those teams gave up to get Goff and Wentz! Now one draft pick is too much? Throw the damn numbers out, along with all the negative opinions! If YOU think he's the guy, you GET HIM, period.
Here's how that might go:
Hue: I want Watson.
Sashi: Ok, we think there's a decent chance he'll be there--
Hue: Are you sure?
Sashi: Well, we can't guar--
Hue: Then draft him first.
Paul: But he's considered a--
Hue: They're wrong. I'm right. He's the guy we're looking for.
Sashi: Maybe we can move down a little, and still get him.
Hue: Only if you're sure. You can't risk losing him.
Sashi: Ok. Our collective fates depend on this, you know.
Hue: I know. That's why this is so important. You've just got to trust me on this.
Of course, I'm just guessing. The guy who wrote the article might have read my blog.
Those who say the franchise tag might be fine for Terrelle Pryor are also delusional. The Browns have seen what they needed to see. Even players who question whether or not he can be a number one are full of crap, because he already is.
He's bigger, taller, and faster than Randy Moss. He compares to Megatron. He's fanatical and obsessed. Why can't you see what's right in front of you in neon lights?
Sign him long term, right now, like you did Collins. Franchise him, and you probably lose him in 2017 when some twit offers him ten percent of his salary cap. That's analytics too: Don't expose your guys to the market. Pay a little extra now, front load it.
The second year it looks like a square deal. Year 3 he's cheap. Year 4 he's a bargain. That's exploiting inflation. It's analytical, and no doubt part of Paul DePodesta's job as Chief Strategy Officer.
Extend the other guys now, too. Use that cap space front-loading, and 3-4 years from now you have it back.
YOU STAND CORRECTED.
First, there's Mel Kiper. Mel thinks the Browns trading for Jimmy Garopollo seems to make the most sense from among the potential contenders.
He's not wrong about that. But he goes on to say that if they drafted Mitch Trubisky, they'd need to park him on the bench for a season. That's not incorrect either.
What's incorrect is the premise that a new Browns quarterback has to start in 2017. Regardless of what Hue Jackson says, this team still plays in the AFC North, and will not be ready for primetime in 2017.
I think I know what Mel would say to that: The new quarterback will need game experience to develop, and the sooner the better. So stipulated. He would also say that when you draft a player that high, he has to make an immediate impact. Says who? They need to win seven instead of five games why?
Mel also seems to dismiss Deshaun Watson, and some mock drafts drop him to the 25th pick in the first round. I know Kiper has been doing this forever, and is right more often than he is wrong about players, but I'm having a hard time understanding this.
Just because of the shotgun spread? Because he's 205 lbs? That was Alabama, both times, and Nick Saban, you know. Around 900 total yards didn't change anything? Does the Buckeye massacre even count? What am I missing here?
Some other guy expects the Browns to pursue the 32 year old, thrice injured Adrian Peterson in year two of their rebuild. Need I say more? Yes, I do: Who the hell hires these people?
And Gramps Romo! And his salary! Stop please stop!
Others regard Tyrod Taylor as a top target, basicly as a bridge quarterback. Hue Jackson will not favor a less accurate, less decisive quarterback over Cody Kessler...or even RG3.
No knock on Taylor, but he's just not an upgrade here in the real world.
Gregg Williams said all kinds of great stuff at his news conference. What I liked best was what he said about tackling. Had the Ray Horton defenders not blown so very, very many tackles, they might have won 3-4 games...maybe even more.
Yes, he does have around 42 fronts, but with the personnel he inherits he will run a lot of 4-man fronts (see earlier post).
As that post points out, a lot of this is semantics. He might have Carl Nassib standing up in the exact same place sometimes, just for giggles. Big deal.
The Williams hiring hasn't caused anyone to miss a drumbeat on the Myles Garrett march, but it should. The Browns are going to have to release at least one pretty good edge-rusher as it is.
While Garrett would undeniably be a big upgrade, believe me or not, this is not a priority position of need. In a 4-3, Garrett would replace Nassib or Ogbah, both of whome will enter their second seasons much improved. Why is everybody so eager to kick Orchard, Holmes, and Johnson to the curb?
The Browns might get five or six more sacks with him than they would without him. Is six sacks worth a first overall pick?
Don't get me wrong the guy is just a beast, and yes, you take him IF you don't take a quarterback first overall.
Popular opinion now is that Deshaun Watson should be there for the Browns at number twelve, and that nobody would trade ahead of them to nab him.
Well there may be Garopollo if Bill trades him, then a couple other veterans could shake loose to eliminate a couple other quarterback-hungry teams from the competition, but you're assuming here that the Bills, Bears, 49ers, Jets, all agree with the amatuer consensus that Watson's career accomplishments were all flukes, and that with all the other guys gone, none of the teams behind the Browns will trade up to screw the Browns out of him.
This seems delusional. If the wild guess reports are accidentally accurate, and the Browns really are enamored with this "second round talent", it's because they believe he is a potential franchise quarterback.
Gil Brandt, Pat Kirwan, and every other former GM or head coach on NFL Radio say the same thing: If you can get your guy, you don't take ANY risks. You just take him.
Look at this last draft! Look what those teams gave up to get Goff and Wentz! Now one draft pick is too much? Throw the damn numbers out, along with all the negative opinions! If YOU think he's the guy, you GET HIM, period.
Here's how that might go:
Hue: I want Watson.
Sashi: Ok, we think there's a decent chance he'll be there--
Hue: Are you sure?
Sashi: Well, we can't guar--
Hue: Then draft him first.
Paul: But he's considered a--
Hue: They're wrong. I'm right. He's the guy we're looking for.
Sashi: Maybe we can move down a little, and still get him.
Hue: Only if you're sure. You can't risk losing him.
Sashi: Ok. Our collective fates depend on this, you know.
Hue: I know. That's why this is so important. You've just got to trust me on this.
Of course, I'm just guessing. The guy who wrote the article might have read my blog.
Those who say the franchise tag might be fine for Terrelle Pryor are also delusional. The Browns have seen what they needed to see. Even players who question whether or not he can be a number one are full of crap, because he already is.
He's bigger, taller, and faster than Randy Moss. He compares to Megatron. He's fanatical and obsessed. Why can't you see what's right in front of you in neon lights?
Sign him long term, right now, like you did Collins. Franchise him, and you probably lose him in 2017 when some twit offers him ten percent of his salary cap. That's analytics too: Don't expose your guys to the market. Pay a little extra now, front load it.
The second year it looks like a square deal. Year 3 he's cheap. Year 4 he's a bargain. That's exploiting inflation. It's analytical, and no doubt part of Paul DePodesta's job as Chief Strategy Officer.
Extend the other guys now, too. Use that cap space front-loading, and 3-4 years from now you have it back.
YOU STAND CORRECTED.
Thursday, January 19, 2017
Don't Draft a Quarterback in the First Round? Really?
According to a poll I read, 27% of you think the Browns should not draft a quarterback in the first round.
I couldn't figure this put, until I read a seven round mock draft which had the Browns listing Deshaun Watson as a second round pick (but explaining that they would probably have traded it into the bottom of the first round).
This is so sad. First, the writer expects Watson to slide all the way down there. Second, you believe it.
It is barely possible that you could accidentally be right about not taking a quarterback in the first round, although you would of course be wrong about Deshaun Watson.
In my previous post, I brought Rodney Kesslerfield back from Oblivia and reminded myself and you of his performance and continued existance.
More recently, I read an article by Brett Oswalt of Numberfire about redrafting the 2012 quarterbacks, knowing then what we know now.
Russell Wilson would have gone first. Then Andrew Luck. Then Kirk Cousins, then Ryan Tannehill, and RG3 dead last.
In fairness, and as the writer stipulates, Luck went to a really bad team, whereas Wilson hit the lottery.
Still, Wilson and Cousins were both drafted late, as backups. Tannehill went low in the first round as a project-type hopeful. Luck and RG3 were considered the top two, with Luck the only can't miss guy.
This got me to thinking: Maybe Hue Jackson really can identify another Cousins or Wilson hiding in the weeds.
It's true that the odds against lower draft picks ever emerging steepen sharply after the top three; ie that for every Cousins or Wilson there are 4-5 guys you never heard of, and never will.
But why assume that this applies to Hue Jackson? Can't he be that exceedingly rare individual who can look at a particular lump of coal and see the diamond within?
He sure seems confident that he is, partly because he is certain that he can bring out the best in any quarterback.
I think that Hue Jackson wants 1: Accuracy/anticipation 1a: Intelligence 2: Dedication 3: the other stuff (size, arm, athleticism etc.) And, of course, the "it" factor, which is really about inspiring confidence in teammates, and coming through in the crunch.
If Hue has a core of accuracy, intelligence, and dedication (really a love of football), he can build him a franchise quarterback.
Hue also believes he knows the less obvious traits when he sees them. He ignored everybody else's opinions, and took Cody Kessler in the third round. Probably, he is still ignoring everybody else, and is the only guy on the planet who believes he already has his quarterback.
I will be the only guy on the planet who doesn't think he knows better than Hue.
Hue has also said that the most important ingredients in a franchise quarterback recipe are a good defense, a good offensive line, and good skill players.
Looking at Ryan, Big Ben, Rodgers, and Brady, we can beg to differ, but only so much: The Falcons and Steelers are loaded with talent. Brady isn't doing it all by himself either.
Only Aaron Rodgers is working with a so-so defense, sans his top wide receiver, and an unreliable running game.
Think about it. What if Cody Kessler had gone to Dallas, and Prescott to the Browns? No, it's not rediculous. Kessler probably wouldn't have won as many games (he can't sling it deep or run like Dak at this point), but he wouldn't have been injured and knocked out. Dak would have got pounded and probably labelled a bust by some.
But the Browns WILL acquire another quarterback, and it will be Hue Jackson's call. He might find the new guy at the Senior Bowl. My dark horse candidate is Chad Kelly from Ole Miss.
I've heard conflicting reports about his accuracy/anticipation, but that usually means a guy has those traits, and is getting bashed for throwing off-balance etc. I don't know how smart he is, but know Uncle Jim is really smart. He has NFL size, an NFL arm, and is a borderline dual threat athlete.
But that's a wild guess. All I know is, Cody Kessler should beat out Griffin to start next season, and Hue will try to find somebody who is better than he is (and doesn't have two concussions yet).
As for Trubisky and Watson, the majority of the aforementioned 27% should stop believing everything they read, and confusing analytics with beancounting.
If Hue Jackson thinks that either one has a good chance of becoming another Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, they have to just draft him first overall.
If we had the 2012 draft to do over, the Browns might draft Russell Wilson, and hear all the same caterwalling.
Once, everybody laughed at this clown who said the world was round.
I couldn't figure this put, until I read a seven round mock draft which had the Browns listing Deshaun Watson as a second round pick (but explaining that they would probably have traded it into the bottom of the first round).
This is so sad. First, the writer expects Watson to slide all the way down there. Second, you believe it.
It is barely possible that you could accidentally be right about not taking a quarterback in the first round, although you would of course be wrong about Deshaun Watson.
In my previous post, I brought Rodney Kesslerfield back from Oblivia and reminded myself and you of his performance and continued existance.
More recently, I read an article by Brett Oswalt of Numberfire about redrafting the 2012 quarterbacks, knowing then what we know now.
Russell Wilson would have gone first. Then Andrew Luck. Then Kirk Cousins, then Ryan Tannehill, and RG3 dead last.
In fairness, and as the writer stipulates, Luck went to a really bad team, whereas Wilson hit the lottery.
Still, Wilson and Cousins were both drafted late, as backups. Tannehill went low in the first round as a project-type hopeful. Luck and RG3 were considered the top two, with Luck the only can't miss guy.
This got me to thinking: Maybe Hue Jackson really can identify another Cousins or Wilson hiding in the weeds.
It's true that the odds against lower draft picks ever emerging steepen sharply after the top three; ie that for every Cousins or Wilson there are 4-5 guys you never heard of, and never will.
But why assume that this applies to Hue Jackson? Can't he be that exceedingly rare individual who can look at a particular lump of coal and see the diamond within?
He sure seems confident that he is, partly because he is certain that he can bring out the best in any quarterback.
I think that Hue Jackson wants 1: Accuracy/anticipation 1a: Intelligence 2: Dedication 3: the other stuff (size, arm, athleticism etc.) And, of course, the "it" factor, which is really about inspiring confidence in teammates, and coming through in the crunch.
If Hue has a core of accuracy, intelligence, and dedication (really a love of football), he can build him a franchise quarterback.
Hue also believes he knows the less obvious traits when he sees them. He ignored everybody else's opinions, and took Cody Kessler in the third round. Probably, he is still ignoring everybody else, and is the only guy on the planet who believes he already has his quarterback.
I will be the only guy on the planet who doesn't think he knows better than Hue.
Hue has also said that the most important ingredients in a franchise quarterback recipe are a good defense, a good offensive line, and good skill players.
Looking at Ryan, Big Ben, Rodgers, and Brady, we can beg to differ, but only so much: The Falcons and Steelers are loaded with talent. Brady isn't doing it all by himself either.
Only Aaron Rodgers is working with a so-so defense, sans his top wide receiver, and an unreliable running game.
Think about it. What if Cody Kessler had gone to Dallas, and Prescott to the Browns? No, it's not rediculous. Kessler probably wouldn't have won as many games (he can't sling it deep or run like Dak at this point), but he wouldn't have been injured and knocked out. Dak would have got pounded and probably labelled a bust by some.
But the Browns WILL acquire another quarterback, and it will be Hue Jackson's call. He might find the new guy at the Senior Bowl. My dark horse candidate is Chad Kelly from Ole Miss.
I've heard conflicting reports about his accuracy/anticipation, but that usually means a guy has those traits, and is getting bashed for throwing off-balance etc. I don't know how smart he is, but know Uncle Jim is really smart. He has NFL size, an NFL arm, and is a borderline dual threat athlete.
But that's a wild guess. All I know is, Cody Kessler should beat out Griffin to start next season, and Hue will try to find somebody who is better than he is (and doesn't have two concussions yet).
As for Trubisky and Watson, the majority of the aforementioned 27% should stop believing everything they read, and confusing analytics with beancounting.
If Hue Jackson thinks that either one has a good chance of becoming another Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, they have to just draft him first overall.
If we had the 2012 draft to do over, the Browns might draft Russell Wilson, and hear all the same caterwalling.
Once, everybody laughed at this clown who said the world was round.
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