Thursday, May 7, 2020

YES the Browns Should Go After Clay Matthews III and Sign him LONG-TERM

I was dismissive of Clay Matthews III in free agency, but MKC and (especially) Chad Porto are starting to bring me around.

I personally remember when his father was his age.  I was saying "it's time to let him go.  Father time is undefeated.  He has to be declining".

...But Clay Jr just kept kicking ass for another seven years--unfortunately the last few years of that with a different team.

Uncle Bruce Matthews played for a long time, too--so writing off anybody named Matthews due to old age isn't as reliable as it is for normal humans.

To be clear, Clay III is not a clone of "my" Clay Matthews.  They both packed on lots of muscles in the weight room.

Dad was fast, but not as fast as Clay III.  But Dad could jack up offensive tackles and dump them in the Quarterback's lap (they called him "Conan").  For most of his carreer, Dad excelled in coverage.  His reflexes and quickness were otherworldly (he sometimes looked like a literal mirror image of the running back he was stuck on--maybe you can dig up some old tapes--it was amazing).

Father and son share those flowing locks, and both excelled as stand-up DEs and 3-4 OLBs.

Clay III remains a terrific athlete who can play any linebacker slot in any scheme.  If he's like his Dad, he's probably still a starter.

Porto suggests that if the price is right (and that matters, you people), they ought to consider a 2 or even 3-year deal.  

With any other 33 year old player, I'd call that dumbassitude, but not with my Clay Matthews' son.  Odds are, he's still playing at a high level at 37 and beyond.

Looking at Clay's carreer stats, there is no evidence of decline.  While some of his stats fluctuate up and down, his roles on defense varied.

He was primarily a 3-4 EDGE for his first 2 seasons in Green Bay, but was since moved inside, and has also been moved around for much of his carreer (like father like son).

He's 6'3", 255 lbs.  III is a total-package true linebacker that Joe Woods could use anywhere, depending on where the other guys fit.

(Speaking of which, Olivier Vernon is 6'2", 268 lbs...)

Clay isn't a Defensive End, but is a passrusher who can set the edge too.  Adding Clay here could have Joe Woods making adjustments:

There could be some 3-man fronts with Billings at nose, Richardson and Elliott at DE, then Matthews, Garrett/Takitaki, and Phillips/Wilson (that's a 6-man front, see? A nickel, ok?)

*Garrett will need to get off the field and rest at least a little, and he might come off here in favor of Takitaki*

Don't worry about labels here.  It's just that Billings is a nose tackle, Matthews is a Linebacker who still excels as a passrusher, Richardson, Ogunjobi, and Elliott can line up between guard and tackle,  and Garrett can line up extra-wide, even if he doesn't stand up.

Takitaki shouldn't play DE in the NFL, but did until his senior year in college, and remains an edge-rusher at heart.  Phillips and Miller have prototypical 3-4 ILB tools and traits.

Frankly, if the Browns were to bring Clay III to Cleveland, Woods would almost have to mix in 3-man fronts and get some of his edge-pressure from linebackers.

Indeed, bringing Clay III here might be a much smarter move than paying Clowney over 15.5 mil, or even than renting Everson Griffen for a year.

Throw out your boxes and magic markers: Joe Woods has his back end covered in-depth for 2020, but has not sorted out his front 6 yet (and the hell with what he said about "4-3" when he first came here.  Even if he wasn't lying, he was talking a 7-man base D and not a nickel.  You heard "4-man front no matter what", but that's not what he said).

(You're welcome for this english-to-english translation).

The Browns have thus far not answered the DE question opposite Myles Garrett.  Vernon is breaking down physically, and regardless of what they say, they're desperate to replace him.

Well, the edge-rusher opposite Garrett doesn't have to be a down lineman, and who the hell told you that Joe's nickel defense had to be a 4-2?  (As I translated, it wasn't Joe Woods).

Ok well Everson Griffen is a Defensive End who could be rented cheap for 1-2 seasons.  Jadeveon Clowney is in his prime, and would cost twice as much.  Clowney is both an OLB and a DE, but he's never had 10 sacks in a season and his "motor" has been questioned.

Matthews is a true Linebacker who might be even cheaper than Griffen (and is a couple years older), but:

HE has had 91.5 sacks and over 130 TFLs over 10 years, and the 4th time he got over 10 sacks was in 2014.  He had 8 sacks in 2019.  He stacks and sheds and can hold the edge, so he can do everything a Defensive End can do for Joe Woods, see?

Hey Paul!  Sign Clay III for what Griffen is axing (except longer-term), go ahead and release Vernon, and now maybe you can still sign Clowney or Griffen!

There you go again with the labels and boxes! Any Defensive Coordinator who thinks like that gets fired and demoted in short order.

In a conventional 3-4 the "Defensive Ends" line up between the Offensive Tackles and guards, ok?  They're both actually Defensive Tackles, aren't they?

The Outside "Linebackers" are responsible for containment and the edge-rush, so they're really Defensive Ends who stand up and back up and wave their arms around sometimes.

3-4 "inside" linebackers tend to be smallish LBs who are quick and fast and cover well (*in zone*).  They're a mix of 4-3 Linebacker types.

Joe Woods needs to stop the run and get heat on Quarterbacks with four guys.  He doesn't care who stands up or puts their hand in the dirt, or what people call it.

Maybe we can skip Clowney and sign Griffen and Matthews for 2 and 3 years respectively, and do it for "free" (for what Pegleg Vernon costs---err---he's obviously released, right?)

(Actually, it probably saves money, since they could also dump Clayborn...still don't get why he's here---nevermind)

Griffen is a legit passrushing DE who can play 3 downs and makes a 4-man front work (at least for 2020, assuming he doesn't get old all at once).

Mathusela Matthews can play any Linebacker position behind a 4-man front, but remains a scary edge-rusher himself any time you want to give Griffen a break.

Woods' "front 6" would be incredibly adaptable and deep.  He could get the elder statesmen (Matthews and Griffen) off the field for R&R as needed, and rotate everybody else, too.

I'm convinced that Larry Ogunjobi "regressed" in 2018-2019 as he played zero-shade and wore down.  (He shouldn't play that position in the first place).  Larry is a penetrator and disrupter first--let him do that, and let him rest between rounds.

Sheldon Richardson was a great add by John Dorsey.  He's almost 30 now, but he's the Eveready Bunny.  Still, you know Father Time is undefeated, so you need to get him some time off, too.

The ideal Dline rotation would get even your Myles Garretts off the field 25% of the time (and a venerable guy like Everson Griffen over 40% of the time).

While I'm at this, get Clay III off the field some too!  Linebacker check, genes check, but don't push it if you don't have to.  Don't bet on Clay III being his father's clone.

Yeah I'm writing a fiction novel here (sorry).

If the Browns' IT people would just get their heads out and fix the communications glitches that are preventing me from advising Andrew, Paul, and the coaches, this wouldn't sound so...nevermind (blush-blush) I don't want to overpay people either, so Andrew might just be patiently waiting for these free agents to cave in and try to scrape by on---

Anyhow yeah trading Clayborn and Vernon for Matthews and Griffen would be great...

...well Clayborn is guaranteed 2.5 mil in 2020 and was a first round pick when they were building the pyramids; this was clearly yet another compensatory pick move...I'm not going to research this right now, but am guessing that the Browns might need to retain Clayborn through 2020 to get a compensatory pick for him, so he'll be retained, even though he...

Well maybe Clayborn could be effective if they only use him 20% of the time exclusively on extremely obvious passing downs--he could step in for Griffen, and conceivably Clay III as well.

You guys get the compensatory pick racket by now, right?  The formula is linked to the round in which the given player was drafted.

Lord Insideous was all over this rule from it's inception.  You sign all the former first round picks you can to one year contracts, and when you cut them loose, they're worth at least a bottom 4th-round pick.

...sorta.  You have to lose more free agents than you sign, for one thing---I can't pretend to understand this better than Bill Polian or Pat Kirwan, who don't get it themselves.

...ok but Gramps Clayborn was a first round pick, and that (plus his cheapness) was the main reason why he was signed.

Are you bored, or confused? Odds are you're one or both, and I apologize, but the "business" side of the NFL MATTERS, even when it's boring or incomprehensible.

Nevermind: I just now think that signing Clay Matthews III to a reasonable contract would be a great idea (hat tip to Porto).

Paul? He's a "Linebacker", and he's 33.  His genes are "inadmissable" in negotiations, and you can "overpay" him cheap.

DUH.

Thank me later! Get these communications glitches fixed first!

THIS JUST IN:

Mitch Zoloty wrote a good article, even though it's Headline made him look mentally impaired:

Olivier Vernon's future after 2020 is pretty irrelevant.  Pegleg is a longshot not to be waived any day now.

To be sure, if DePoBerry wanted to retain Pegleg, they tried to renegotiate.  Either way, nothing has happened, so Vernon is as good as gone right now.

Scroll back 7-10 paragraphs/see previous posts: Pegleg can be replaced several times over for what he's overpaid, or less.

I've been wrong before, but if Vernon makes the final 2020 roster, I'm officially telling you now that that would be idiotic.

*I don't want to be the Browns GM.  If nominated, I will not run.  If elected, I will not serve.  But I preserve my right to call dumbassitude dumbassitude*

I HAVE SPOKEN














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