1: Jared thinks that Larry Ogunjobi and Andrew Billings play the same position.
Technically, he is correct, as Larry has been compelled to play the zero-shade nose tackle since Sheldon Richardson was brought here, and a lot of it in 2018 for similar reasons.
Ogunjobi's natural position is a 3-tech penetrating disruptive DT, but the Browns haven't found nose tackles who are good enough to replace him there.
Jared thinks that either Ogunjobi or Billings will remain on the team, but not both.
This is almost comical, since Sheldon Richardson will be a 30 year old free agent after 2021, Billings is a true nose tackle, and Jordan Elliott is a more complete DT who can play both positions effectively.
Certainly, Larry has had two bad seasons (vs the run, anyway), but never belonged on the nose in the first place.
2: In his "Needs" article, Jared lists backup running back as the 4th biggest need, so Hilliard and Johnson don't count, right? Dalvin Cook is about the same size as these guys.
(*Jared correctly assumes that Kareem Hunt will price himself off the roster in 2020*)
3: Next is backup 3-tech DT, which I already covered; Larry Ogunjobi is a 3-tech, and not a nose tackle. Backup nose tackle would work here.
4: Then Linebacker and Wide Receiver:
Jared even says that the Browns must "find 2 of these" Linebackers, so he gets the scheme. He is saying that Phillips, Wilson, and Takitaki are all scrubs.
In re Wide Receivers, it's now finally at long last beginning to dawn on non-me's that 2-Tight End offenses (with 3 Tight Ends) don't often use a third Wide Receiver.
Jared has, of course, dismissed Rashard Higgins, Damion Ratley, and Hodge like everybody else, but he's also expecting Peoples-Jones to take at least 2 years before he's fit to take the field.
This negative bias in re young players permeates Jared's analyses. Peoples-Jones isn't ready to start yet, but he can play outside or inside immediately, and might be a starter in 2021.
5: Jared also expects CB Kevin Johnson to hit the road after 2020 because the Browns are unlikely to spend "big money" on Cornerbacks with Ward and Williams on the roster.
Well, slot cornerbacks are starters in the modern NFL, and it's not just where your 3rd-best Cornerback defaults to. Ward could play the slot, but Williams shouldn't. The best slot corners are almost as critical as the outside starters.
Any team will spend significant money for a stud nickel cornerback, and if Kevin Johnson can finally live up to his talent and high draft status, the Team will want to extend him.
And what does Jared define as "big money"? Over 2.5 mil/year? 3?
And by the way Rodney Mitchellfield, who is easily in the top 20% of man cornerbacks, is making around 4.7 mil this season, and might be extended for less than that.
Cornerbacks get hurt, you know! Is 4 million too much money for a top-notch cover corner who is likely to play over 30% of the snaps?
See all those empty backfields, 4-wides? What makes everybody think you can recruit your slot and third cornerbacks from the local 7-11?
Jared does a good job otherwise, as he colors Hunt gone, and puts OBJ and Landry on the post-2020 bubble (one reason he lists WR as a need).
This is just reality. Jared is talking about dumping salary to get the jump on extending younger players early, but naturally DePoBerry will be " firmly denying" trade rumors (to drive the prices up).
Mueller is also on the money on how good teams are built and maintained.
The Browns didn't need yet another Tight End, 3-tech DT, WR, or Center YET, but they grabbed them anyway.
Now, Njoku crapping out (or getting traded) or JC Tretter getting hurt will be a speed-bump short-term, and these players are ready when Richardon leaves, if Ogunjobi does, and (maybe) to replace OBJ or Landry as early as 2021.
The best teams have that assembly-line going, and trade their old guys before they decline (much).
Cody Sueck does an awesome job of analyzing 4th round TE Harrison Bryant and how he will fit with the Browns.
The worst part first: Harrison was available that late mostly because of his short arms and combine workouts; he was in the lowest 15th percentile in SPARQ scores.
But as Cody points out, this selection was a collaberative effort between the "old school" scouts and the analytics guys.
But as Cody overlooked, the athletic analytics are separate from the performance analytics. As a player, in games, PFF ranked him as at or near the top of all Tight Ends in nearly every statistical category (and over 78 as a blocker too).
This can't be dismissed by the level of competition, as he played well vs Ohio State and other big schools, and performed will throughout Senior Bowl week.
Undrafted Cornerback A J Green's big contract is thought-provoking.
The scouting reports really don't like this guy, and his physical limitations aren't debatable.
I suspect that Joe Woods will use him as a specialist to cover big, slow guys, and turn him into a Strong Safety.
None of the scouting reports I've seen even bother to mention his tackling, and it seems obvious that (yawn) the notion that (yawn) Green could play Strong Safety never occurred (yawnzzzzz) to them.
He can't run with WR's but can run with TE's and stay on top of Running Backs coming out of the backfield.
He can also cover short and intermediate routes well in zone.
His accurate measurements are 6'1", 202 lbs., and he can probably get bigger...
Just a wild thought: A lot of 245 lb linebackers are 6'1", and 4.67 is fast for a Linebacker hmmm...
...but yeah I think he's a special teamer and SS project for now (laugh at me now but believe me later).
You people need to quit saying that Terrence Mitchell is the 4th cornerback in 2020. Kevin Johnson is a slot guy, and so far in their respective carreers, Mitchell is a much better outside cover corner!
He's the first backup to both Williams and Ward ahead of Johnson! If Johnson gets hurt, Ward moves to the slot and Mitchell replaces him outside!
Somebody wake Bill Barnwell up and tell him 3 freaking million bucks isn't too much to pay a critical backup CB in 2020!!!
You think Jimmy Haslam is trying to squeeze short-term profits out of his hobby or something!?!
Bill: Jimmy could spend ALL of his cap money in 2020 and still have 50 mil or so in 2021 ohmmm....ohmmm......
Myles Garrett is the only 2017 top 5 pick to get extended by his team on his 5th year option. He was a home run, and was averaging one sack per game when he lost his mind vs that psychopath QB last season.
He and Njoku are obstensibly locked up through 2021.
Garrett will make a little under 10 mil in 2020 and over 15 mil in 2021, but it's often smarter in the long run to extend these players (especially QBs by the way) early, as they are acutely aware that they are being underpaid, and get pissed off about it, and get all Dak Prescottish (or Kirk Cousinlike) about it as that clock runs down.
This Covid 19 mass-delusion/hysteria could shrink the 2020 cap (see previous posts), but sans mass-insanity, the cap typically grows each year.
2020 might be a good year to make Garrett the highest paid DE in the NFL in order to lock him up for 5 more years.
Up front, you're paying a collective 15 mil more for 2020/21 than you would have, but by 2021, some lesser DE might already get paid more, and by 2022, some other DE get 2 more mil/year (and another one holding out and getting franchise tagged).
By 2023, the cap is 30+% higher than it was in 2020, and Myles Garrett is CHEAP (and extremely tradeable), and his guaranteed monies are mostly paid out, and his salary is shrinking too, see?
This is better than a resentful holdout, maybe trade-demands, franchise tag decisions, and paying MORE relative to the cap than you would have otherwise.
Sorry too
The 2020 Browns have a very strong young core (which suddenly includes Jake Conklin and Austin Hooper, as well as the new draft picks).
The one-year contracts (including to first round picks Karl Joseph and Kevin Johnson) are not only cheap fliers on real young talent, but also 2021 4th round picks or higher if they're not extended. It's brilliant.
Trade down 3 slots and get DELPIT anyway, PLUS a future starting interior offensive lineman? Trade down again and get a 2021 3rd round pick and the top-ranked passrushing DT in the draft?
I hated the Peoples-Jones 6th round pick at first but get it now! He's probably the kickoff gunner and punt returner out of the gate AND has a very high long-term cieling and it was the SIXTH round, after all so...
Andrew Berry is patient. He has to want to replace Vernon with Clowney or Griffen. I suspect (just an opinion) that John Dorsey would already have signed Clowney for 17-18 mil/year for 3 years or so (hell I would have!)
It's pretty obvious, isn't it? Clowney or Vernon for the same money? Wouldn't Clowney for 3-4 years cover DE (or OLB for that matter) in the modern NFL?
Yeah he's had injuries and missed time (not in the same zip code as OBJ or Vernon, of course). Yeah he's never even got 10 sacks in any of his NFL years. Yeah I hear he runs hot and cold and "disappears" sometimes in games.
But I tend to go by PFF rankings, and per them, Jadeveon Clowney is a major-league total package stud DE OR OLB and I WANT him, do you hear?
I want Jadeveon Clowney opposite fellow first overall draft pick Myles Garrett, competing with and being challenged/driven by him. I want to see that for the next few years.
Okbye
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