Doug Lesmerisis shows admirable self-discipline as he forces himself to predict a 4-12 season for the Browns, running through the schedule game-by-game and rationalizing even better than most permabashers.
While a win in Baltimore is too much to predict, Les talks about Mayfield's great stats against the Ravens meaning nothing, and Hargaugh's historical record against the Browns trumping that.
Les had to have threw up a little as he wrote this--it's really hard for a rational person to feign irrationality.
Obviously, when even the majority of players on the 2020 team weren't even on the roster as recently as 2017, pre-Mayfield history is irrelevant.
Les did a great job of ignoring a lot of legitimate reasons for predicting a loss here in order torture logic until it screamed for death like a permabasher would.
He had trouble predicting a loss to the Bengals in game 2, as he had to predict that Baker Mayfield would fizzle on Thursday night.
I won't go on with Les's article, as it was a deliberate farce. You guys might want to check it out, however, as from start to finish, it illustrates how irrational and stuporstitious you have to be to predict a 4-12 record for this team.
12-4 is less delusional than that. We would have to respect an 8-8 prediction.
It's going to be tough. It's hard to predict that even the Chiefs can top the Ravens in 2020, let alone the Browns with new systems and starters all over the place, and the Bengals just got major upgrades, including the return to health of their 2019 first round Left Tackle.
Still, the Ravens are the only team on this schedule that seems almost unbeatable for this iteration of the Cleveland Browns.
Naturally, you can't just write a "w" next to all those teams.
The biggest single reason for optimism is Baker Mayfield.
Peter Smith breaks down most of the reasons for Baker's regression from his record-breaking rookie season (inside penetration/no pocket, bad coaching, the early losses of Higgins and Njoku, etc).
Pete also touched on the whole OBJ thing, in greater depth than I've heard from anybody else (how refreshing Pete I love you man):
OBJ was injured and played that way. He had no chemistry with Mayfield (couldn't even practice with him during the week):
Obviously, until OBJ gets injured again, he'll be much better this season, and the connection with Baker Mayfield will be much better until OBJ gets injured again (at least until OBJ gets injured again).
But, like everybody else, Peter avoids the elephant in the room:
Odell Beckham Jr was a "Dorsey guy".
Freddie Kitchens' 2018 (pre-OBJ) offense bore little resemblance to the 2019 (post-Zampese) offense.
Sigh once again, Baker Mayfield was forcing passes to OBJ instead of spreading them all over the place like he did at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and in 2018; like he does naturally.
Dorsey clearly thought that Darrin Fells wasn't a "real football player" because he let him walk and replaced him with HIS guy. And when Njoku recovered from his injury, well...he wasn't a Dorsey guy either, so...and how 'bout Higgins?
Pete Smith as usual covers everything else in excruciating detail:
From Zampese (who Bob Wiley called the "real Offensive Coordinator" in 2018) to Lindley was (in Pete's opinion) a big step down at QB Coach.
Smith sees a bright future for Baker Mayfield with Alex Van Pelt (and Case Keenum), Stefanski's extremely QB-freindly offense, a healthy OBJ and Njoku, Wyatt Teller the "worst-case" Right Guard from game one, and Wills/Conklin.
You guys have already read here what Pete said about how dumb it would be to expect 2019 to trump Baker Mayfield's whole history as a Quarterback up to that point, but Pete went deeper there, as well:
Up until 2019, Baker was "too short", got caught running from cops, and was bashed and doubted (ie challenged) often/frequently.
After what he did as a rookie in 2018, most of that negativity disappeared, and for the first time in his life, Baker Mayfield was expected to kick ass (err...AGAIN).
He wasn't the underdog anymore, and (in Pete's opinion) this cost him his motivation. Baker needs to get picked on!
While over time, this emotional stuff will become less important to Mayfield, for right now, everything is working out perfectly to well and truly piss this kid off again.
Listen to some of these jackasses!
Colin Cowherd thinks the 2018 Mayfield just got lucky, and this is who he really is...so short and Johnny Manswell-like and cops and crotches and flags and blahblah...
Idiots saying that spending a total of less than 10 hours in 2019 making commercials distracted him?
Defenses have "figured him out"?
That one is slightly true: In 2019, they figured out that Njoku was the only Tight End left who could catch, that OBJ was the first read on every pass play, that Mayfield prefers to roll right (wow dass juss brillyundd!), that he would rarely roll out (...because...he wasn't allowed to)...
Anyhow as my readers know, that's a crock. If Baker Mayfield is given full discretion, he can't be pidgeonholed by any defense.
Check out those 2018 stats and tell me who (besides Landry) you would "take away" from Baker Mayfield. Do you see Higgins' yards-per-catch?
He got rid of the ball quickly because he wasn't thinking about it, and didn't care who his target was!
He made a bunch of "off-script" plays on scrambles (like Mahomes) because he didn't have to flee the pocket for 3-4 seconds and had Higgins, Njoku, and sometimes Fells to bail him out!
"Figured him out" indeed: Like you "figure out" Aaron Rodgers, right?
Check it out! He's not as accurate running to his left as he is to his right! ...because he's...well...right handed...and if you take Davante Adams away from him, he will predictably start completing passes to everybody else AHAH! We HAVE him now! good grief.
And yes, Aaron Rodgers is the one Quarterback Baker Mayfield most resembles and yes: he is just as talented.
And he's about to show you. He's got to be fed up with this idiocy...I can't wait to watch Baker Mayfield in Kevin Stefanski's 2020 offense!
In addition to TWO weaponized Tight Ends and TWO elite Offensive Tackles, the defense has been significantly upgraded.
They lost Schobert, Kirksey, and Randall, but they gained Joseph, Sendejo, Delpit, Johnson, Phillips, Billings, and Elliott (sorry I can't bring myself to include gramps Clayborn here).
For once there is impressive depth at Defensive Tackle, and 3 of those guys can play DE sort of, so they won't wear out.
The secondary is jam-packed with first and second round draft picks. The 2020 defense might not be awesome, but we can count on it being in the top 10.
And I'm telling you right now, the 2020 Browns' Offense will be in the top FIVE.
I'm prepared to accept a sweep by the Ravens, and a split with the Bengals, but would be disappointed not to sweep the Steelers.
Nobody else scares me.
Who has a better Quarterback? Well, about now the unwarshed masses are saying "everybody", but in reality, (of the teams the Browns play) it's debatable:
Lamar Jackson is only in his 3rd year and was MVP in 2019.
Joe Burrow is a rookie but is regarded by some as a generational talent.
Big Ben was terrific, but is a geezer with a ton of injuries, and not athletic at all.
The real Baker Mayfield can duke it out with anybody (including Mahomes--as he already has: Mahomes beat him, but Baker threw for nearly 500 yards.)
Who has somebody like Myles Garrett, or Nick Chubb, or Kareem Hunt, or Grant Delpitt, or Denzel Ward, or (pick one) Wills or Conklin? Landry/OBJ/Hooper/Joseph etc?
In my next post maybe I will go position by position and compare 2020 Browns to others in the NFL.
PFF does a good job of that, but (unless you shell out the big bucks) doesn't break it down by portions of seasons or game-by-game.
Per season-long statistics, Mack Wilson sucks, Greedy Williams is mediocre, Delpitt can't tackle, Mayfield sucks, OBJ can't catch, etc.
I can do better. But for now okbye
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