I've got to confess that I got glassy-eyed and lost as Elliott described all these obscure rules. I know I could comprehend it if I took an hour or so to read the aticle slowly, with some rest-breaks, but lacking the time, most of it went over my head.
I do get that the successful "moneyball" model was the 49ers, who went from a pile o you know what to the Superbowl in 3 seasons.
You tear the roster down (and of course deny that you're doing it.) You release the older veterans you're unable to trade, and pile up cash and draft picks.
Only once you become a contender do you spend significant money on a few star veteran free agents.
Elliott got a few parts of this wrong, or at least misspoke:
1: John Dorsey blew up DePodesta's plan, as he overpaid Hubbard and purged Ogbah, Nassib, et al from the roster in 2018, and then threw away Jabrill Peppers, a first and third round pick, and Kevin Zeitler in 2019 for Pegleg Vernon and OBJ.
2: There is no plan to overspend--ever. This year, they paid a 10-15% premium for Austin Hooper, but saved as much on Jack Conklin (and both these players are in their primes, and even still ascending).
The 49ers had the same GM and Head Coach throughout, and traded for Jimmy Garropolo in-season in 2017. Garropolo was far more advanced than any rookie.
After starting 0-9, the team finished 2017 at 6-10. Meanwhile, Hue Jackson and DeShone Kizer achieved a perfect 0-16, so the 49ers were well ahead of the Browns, ok?
In 2018, the Niners went 4-12, but get this: Lynch and Shanahan kept their jobs! I know, right?
But Jimmy G was now a veteran, and their young roster was getting some traction. In addition to drafting Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel, they traded for Dee Ford, signed CB Jason Verrett and RB Tevin Coleman, and extended stud LT Joe Staley.
Not to be outdone, John Dorsey traded draft picks and elite players for 2 players who have missed over 33% of their carreer games to injuries, and named Freddie Kitchens the new Head Coach.
Yes, very analytical, very "moneyball", right?
The Niners went to the Superbowl and the Browns went 6-10 again and fired another Coach and GM and well...
The 2020 Browns have new offensive and defensive systems again, but are ready to contend. That's why Conklin and Hooper were hired, then bandaids Karl Joseph, Sendejo, Johnson, Billings etc.
They're kind of where the Niners were after 2018, except for the new systems, so they made a move--but haven't overspent, Elliott.
Only Conklin and Hooper were multi-year signings, and the average out to at-market or below. The one-year contracts are all dirt cheap, and disappear in 2021.
But then Elliott says that everybody is "overspending" in 2020, and predicts that most NFL teams will be forced to let quality veteran players go to get back under the cap.
I still don't get it: Former GM Pat Kirwan is constantly dismissing cap space concerns with "oh they can make room" by renegotiating with somebody or whatever.
But if Elliott is right, it helps explain why Jadeveon Clowney remains unsigned; nobody can really afford him (until he gets still cheaper).
Elliott thinks the Browns should be patient, and wait under the trees with a big net to catch what's about to fall out of them. Elliott says 19 teams have tough decisions to make.
I hope so, as I still can't believe that the 2020 Browns will actually follow through and pay Pegleg Vernon 15.5 million bucks.
The market is the market, and the Browns could replace Vernon with Clowney, or with Everson Griffen and Clay Matthews III, for example---for the same money or less.
The Browns play the Ravens in Baltimore on opening day, and the Ravens' offensive juggernaut is probably going to be even better than it was in 2019.
The Browns' only real chance will be to simply score even more points, but the defense needs to at least slow Jackson and company down.
Olivier Vernon could help, but he's probably...you know...injured so....
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