Friday, May 22, 2020

Building/Maintaining a Contender: Business Analytics and the Cleveland Browns. And Clay Matthews III and Stuff

It's not often that Pete Smith is wrong, but he is when it comes to the Browns potentially trading for Jamal Adams.

Everything Pete says about how versatile and excellent Adams is is no doubt true, but when it comes to compensation, it gets more complicated:

Adams will take this opportunity to renegotiate.  As Pete says, Adams is scheduled to make 3.6 mil this season and 9.5 mil in 2021.  He is "underpaid", and could well muck up a trade by demanding a raise.

Pete is also implicitly kicking Redwine to the curb, and foreclosing on Joseph's future here.

But the worst part is, Pete is all set to trade a first round pick and then some (he mentioned the OBJ trade OMFG) for Jamal Adams.

Oh hell no!

Pete's got the X's and O's and player analysis down pat, but probably shouldn't be allowed near a front office:

Here Pete wants to trade a cheap 4-5 year first round draft pick, plus maybe a third, for a guy who will (best case) demand the stars and the moon after 2021.  

He is spending a lot more money in 2021 for the one player instead of the two kids, and is getting Berry into cap hell as of 2022.

Meanwhile the two younger players will be somewhere else; ie the roster will be older, and have less developmental talent.  That's not how you build or sustain a perennial contender.

Thomas Moore quotes Nick Snook again (who in turn uses Next Gen Stats):  Nick says that Myles Garrett was the most disruptive player in the NFL in 2019.

He hurried or sacked QBs, stuffed runners etc almost one out of every 5 downs.

But interestingly, per a commenter (this one was sentient), Adrian Calyborne ranked 9th on that list!  I'm coloring that true for now--people don't just make stuff like that up.

When Berry signed Clayborne, I couldn't understand why.

Pff graded him 76.6 as a passrusher in 2019, and he was over 80 in 2018.  These are very good.  (He was 57.2 vs the run, which is mediocre).

Looks like I was wrong again: Adrian Clayborne should be a pretty good one-year bandaid as edge-depth.

Another guy  want to take another look at is Chad Thomas, who got bad grades from PFF (horrible vs the run, meh vs the pass) in 2019, but he's only entering his third season, and could make a leap.

Thomas had all the tools coming out of college, and mainly needed coaching.  He's another guy who might lack dedication to football, as he's big into music.  That's why scouts said that he would be a very good football player or a bust.

I won't make any predictions here, but just saying he might emerge in 2020 (or might get cut).

Andrew Berry is saying that Olivier Vernon is a key to the 2020 defense and all that, and good for him not "shading" one of his players.  I'm telling you, there is no way that Berry isn't trying to replace Vernon.

He has missed almost half his games over the last 2 seasons, and no reasonable person would count on that not happening yet again as he turns 30 in October.

Nor, in the real world, do GMs just assume that a player returning from the latest of a series of injuries will ever be as good as he was again.  (He can have a great attitude and work hard and be a leader blahblah but he can't regenerate cartilege).

I'm thinking Everson Griffen, although I personally agree with Joe Thomas that Clowney could potentially "take care of" one DE spot for multiple years if his price comes down.

The injury issue with Clowney is overinflated; he has started over 80% of his games, and for that matter played hurt through 2019 (like OBJ).

His lack of sack production has obviously been disappointing for a 1st overall draft pick, but then that's biggest reason why he'll have to accept less money, once the market brings him back down to Earth.

For us unwarshed masses, if you can get a Clowney for what you pay Vernon, that's a no-brainer.  Does anybody disagree with that?

If you sign Griffen or -gulp- stick with Vernon, you need to draft a DE in 2021.  If you sign Clowney (for a few years) you probably don't.

Joe Woods, you people need to comprehend, has a brain of his own, and (hopefully) isn't a "desciple" of Pete Carroll or Saleh.  However, Salah ran a 4-3 over defense in San Fran last season, and the Browns have most of the guys they need to run that here.

Actually screw the under/over stuff, and Carroll ran more under anyway--Robert Saleh used a "wide 9" DE last season who lined up right in the Tight End's face, while the other (big/strong) DE was on a Tackle.

This allowed the DEs to set the edge on runs; both DEs could stand up to their respective blockers vs the run, and also beat them (in different ways) vs the pass.

Clowney would be perfect for the Wide 9 DE in this scheme.  He could mug the TE in space, and sometimes actually cover him while a smaller person blitzes.  Griffen can't do that stuff.

Interestingly, Olivier Vernon shares this ability with Clowney...or used to...when healthy...except Clowney is taller, longer, and faster...nevermind...

As for under/over, Saleh did both: His 3-tech DT attacked from both sides of the center.  I assume it had to do with individual matchups and offensive tendancies.

If Joe Woods is like that, he'll be using Richardson, Ogunjobi, and Gregory fairly evenly,  and...

Ok well look at the 2020 Browns RG situation: Whoever wins the start is probably the weakest link on the offensive line, see?  So Woods would run more "over" vs that line, to pit his quick penetrator vs that Right Guard. (This puts Billings or Ogunjobi a little to the center's left usually.)  

And then, if that RG is Teller, then Richardson or Ogunjobi are the right guys--but vs Forbes, it should be more Gregory.

But as you know, the "base" defense is obsolete, and defenses now run 6-man fronts 2/3rds of the time.

As things stand, this is indeed a 4-2 for the 2020 Browns, but this could change.

Joe Woods said he would run a "four-three" base defense.  I speak english, so I can translate this for you people:  Joe will run a 4-3 around 33% of the time.

Joe didn't say anything about his nickel or dime fronts, and (just to be helpful here) is a different person than Steve Wilks or Gregg Williams, ok?

If you retain Vernon or sign Clowney, you might see some 3-3's.  If you replace Vernon with Griffen, that's more 4-2's.  If you cut Vernon and sign Clay Matthews III, that's 3-3.  If you replace Vernon with Griffen and Matthews (for about the same money, and Matthews for a few years), that's pretty much anything you want, ok?

I know that I've said all this before, but nobody gets it, so I'm compelled to say it again:

Edge-rushers come in different shapes and sizes, linebackers are linebackers, and good players are better than average players (it's not that complicated).

It's simpler, easier, and more easily comprehensible for clueless pundits if you can have 4 down linemen all the time OR 3 of those and 4 linebackers, but real Defensive Coordinators just want the most talented players they can get, and will tweak their scheme to use them if neccessary.

I would offer Clay III 15 mil over 3 years with a fully guaranteed 6 mil in 2020, and Everson Griffen 20 mil for 2 years with 9 of 11 mil guaranteed in 2020 and not more than 3 mil guaranteed in 2021, and release Vernon.

BOTH of these players would cost less than 2 mil more than Pegleg in 2020, and if you think that even matters, you are clueless.  EACH player is a likely upgrade over Vernon (no offense dude but they're durable ok?)

Now, for 2020 Joe Woods can do anything he wants, and for sure has "counterweights" for Myles Garrett. 4-2, 3-3, 3-4 or 4-3 who cares?

Both these players are getting old, but are partially redundant, plus one is a LB and the other a DE, so Woods could easily rotate them on and off the field (while driving offenses crazy) to keep  them fresh and healthy.

Each of these venerable players got 8 sacks in 2019.  Both are also good vs the run.  Clay III is also a real linebacker who can line up anywhere and cover as well.

I reminisced about Clay's dad awhile back.  I distinctly remember telling everybody that the Browns needed to let him go when his contract expired, and he was younger than Clay III is now.

Clay Jr played for NINETEEN seasons!!!  Clay III is valued like everybody else his age (CHEAP), and is only merely a linebacker.

Well anyhow dump Pegleg and sign Griffen and Matthews I HAVE SPOKEN okbye


















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